Lay the Draw – Betornot

Betting Trends at Wimbledon: Analyzing Top Seed Losses

Before the year 2000 you would have to go back to 1962 to find a player out of the top 5 seeding in the ladies tournament that won. Since and including 2000 there have only been 10 players that were within the top 5 seeding that have won the ladies tournament. Where did these players fall by the wayside and what odds on the exchange could you lay them off at?
2024 saw 31 seed Krejcikova winning the tournament with a 2-1 victory over 7 seed Paolini, but the top 10 seeds started falling out in the 1st round with the dismissal of Zheng and Vondrousova with sportsbook odds of 1.17 and 1.13 respectively. Round 2 saw 5 seed Pegula lose to unseeded Wang, her sportsbook odds were 1.25. The third round was a disaster for the seeded players with 1 seed Swiatek (Odds 1.08), 9 seed Sakkari (Odds 2.2) , and 10 seed Jabeur (Odds 1.5) all crashing out. This left just 4 of the top 10 seeded players progressing into the 4th round which also saw casualties in the form of 2 seed Gauff (Odds 1.29) and 11 seed Collins (Odds 1.44). (I have included Collins at 11 seed because No 3 seed Sabalenka withdrew before round 1 and did not play in the tournament). Both remaining top 10 seeded players, seed 4 Rybakina and seed 7 Paolini made it safely through the quarter finals but the semi finals were the limit for seed 4 Rybakini (Odds 1.2) who lost to eventual winner Krejcikova. As mentioned before Paolini was the last of the top 10 seeds to fall and became tournament runner up with match odds of 2.2.

The implications of these events warrant some serious investigation into either backing the underdog at sportsbook odds if you haven’t got an exchange account or laying the seeded player on the exchanges.

2024 Round 1 Matches

Wimbledon 1st round matches backing the underdog at £1.00 level stakes

The table above shows the results and profit had you backed the underdog with Bet365 sportsbook for a £1.00 level stake. As you can see your profit would have been £1.00

Wimbledon 1st round matches laying the top 10 seeded players.

This second table shows the results and profit achieved when laying the top 10 seeded players for a £1.00 liability at the exchange with a 0% commission If you factor in a 2% commission then the profit would be £3.02 instead of £3.25.

2024 2nd Round Matches

Wimbledon 2nd Round Backing the Underdog at £1.00 Level Stakes

In the 2nd round just 1 seeded player was knocked out and the “underdog” for the match was Wang Xin who was 3/1. Total stakes for round 2 was £8.00 producing, after Wangs’ win, a total loss of £4.00. This brings our total P/L for the tournament if we were backing the opponent of the top 10 seeded players to -£3.00.

Wimbledon 2nd round matches laying the remaining top 10 seeded players for a £1.00 liability

This table above shows the results if we had laid the remaining top 10 seed players. Our loss after 2% commission would be £3.74 giving a total loss of £3.72

2024 3rd Round Matches.

Wimbledon 3rd round matches Backing the underdog for a £1.00 level Stake

2024s’ 3rd round saw 3 of the top ten seeded players get knocked out including No 1 seed Swiatek which produced the highest individual profit of £7.00. The overall profit for round 3 backing the underdogs at Bet365 was £5.30 giving us an overall tournament profit of £2.30.

Wimbledon 3rd round matches laying the remaining top 10 seeded players to £1.00 liability

The dismissal of 3 of the remaining 7 top 10 seeded players has put our P/L back into the black with a 3rd round profit of £5.71 before commission deduction. With this factored in the 3rd round profit is £5.51 giving a tournament profit of £1.79

2024 4th Round Matches

Wimbledon 4th round matches backing the underdog at £1.00 level stakes

The dismissal of both Gauff and Collins in round 4 would have given us a level stake profit of £2.50 backing the underdog at Bet365 the retirement of both Keys and Kalinskaya ensured safe passage to the Quarter Finals of the remaining 2 top ten seeds Paolini and Rybakina. With these two wins in this round our total tournament profit for backing the underdog now stands at £4.80.

Wimbledon 4th round matches laying the remaining 4 top 10 seeds to a liability of £1.00.

Laying players at such short odds at the exchange has paid off in this round giving us an after commission profit of £3.10 adding to our tournament profit giving a total of £4.89

2024 Quarter Finals

Both of the remaining top 10 seeded players made it safely through to the semi finals reducing our Level stake profit when backing the underdog to £2.80. Laying the seeded players also had the same effect on our laying to a liability profit to £2.89 after commission.

2024 Semi Finals

Wimbledon 2024 Semi Final Matches showing the backing of the underdog at £1.00 level stakes

Paolini triumphed in her semi final match against unseeded Vekic but backing Krejcikova to win against Rybakina paid dividends producing an overall semi final profit to £1.00 level stakes at Bet365 of £2.0 giving us an overall tournament profit with just the final to play of £5.30.

Semi final matches involving the remaining 2 top ten seeded players when laying to a £1.00 liability.

Again laying the seeded player instead of backing the underdog produced a greater profit before 25 commission was deducted even with the commission subtracted the profit is £3.28 giving a total tournament profit with just the final to play of £6.17

2024 The Final.

The Final for Wimbledon 2024 where 31 seed Krejcikova beat 7th Seed Paolini 3/6 6/3 6/4

Backing the “Underdog” in the final at Bet365 produced a profit of 73p which when added to our tournament total for backing the underdog at £1.00 level stakes has given us a tournament grand total of £6.03

Laying the seeded player paid off again giving a small profit after commission of 78p

Laying the no 7 seed Paolini at odds of 2.25 has seemed the only sensible bet in the tournament given the odds of the eventual winner, Krejcikova, of 1.8 at the exchange. A profit of 78p was achieved after the reduction of 2% commission and when added to the tournament total for laying each and every one of the top ten seeded players produced an overall profit of £6.95. This is 92p more than backing the underdog at a sportsbook.

Analysis of the tournament.

Without doubt had we laid the top ten seeded players then our profit would have been more than backing the underdog at the bookmaker. However there is the fact that bookmakers need to create at least a 7% overound and we may well have benefited more by backing the underdog at an exchange especially if you have a promotional 0% commission. Without the top seeds falling by the wayside early on in the tournament the profit would have been less or even a loss might have occurred, certainly our profit was boosted by the single fact that Swiatek crashed out in the 3rd round!
Overall a success and in fact a low risk strategy. Laying to a liability of just £1.00 means that we can monitor and control any losses. We can make the lay bets in the knowledge that if we start with a small bank of just £10 and not let any emotion enter into our decisions we can keep this strategy fun.

How the seeded players faired in previous years.

2023

Top 10 Seeds

Swiatek – Lost in Round 4 (Odds 1.19)
Sabalenka – Lost in Semi Finals (Odds 1.7)
Rybakina – Lost in Quarter Finals (Odds 1.71)
Pegula – Lost in Quarter Finals (Odds 1.76)
Garcia – Lost in Round 3 (Odds 2.05)
Jabeur – Lost in The Final (Odds 1.5)
Gauff – Lost in round 1 (Odds 1.34)
Sakkari – Lost in round 1 (Odds 1.36)
Kvitova -Lost in Round 4 (Odds 1.8)
Krejcikova Lost in Round 2 (Odds 1.35)

Swiatek
Reached the 4th round where she lost to Svitolina After losing 3 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £5.26 giving a profit of £2.54
Sabalenka
Reached the Semifinals where she lost to Jabeur. After losing 5 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £1.43 giving a loss of £3.57
Rybakina
Reached the quarter finals were she lost to Jabeur. After 4 losing lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £1.41 giving a loss of £2.59
Pegula
Reached the Quarter finals where she lost to Vondrousova. After losing 4 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £1.32 giving a loss of £2.68
Garcia
Reached the 3rd round where she lost to Bouzkova. After losing 2 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won 96p giving a loss of £1.04
Jabeur
Reached the final where she lost to Vondrousova. After losing 6 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £2.00 giving a loss of £4.00
Gauff
Lost in the 1st round to Kenin. We would have won £2.94.
Sakkari
Lost in the 1st round to Kostyuk. We would have won £2.78
Kvitova
Reached the 4th Round where she lost to Jabeur. After losing 3 lay bets of £1.00 each we would have won £1.25 giving a loss of 1.75
Krejcikova
Reached the 2nd round where she lost to Andreeva. After just 1 losing lay bet of £1.00 we would have won £2.86 giving a profit of £1.86

Conclusion.

We would have lost £5.51 over the whole tournament this year if we had laid each of the top 10 seeds to the end.

2022

Top 10 seeds

Swiatek – Lost in Round 3 (Odds 1.2) – P/L £3.00
Kontaveit – Lost in Round 2 (Odds 1.50) – P/L £1.00
Jabeur – Reached the Final (Odds 1.83) – P/L -£4.80
Badosa – Reached the 4th Round (Odds 3.4) – P/L -£2.58
Sakkari – Reached the 3rd Round (Odds 1.20) – P/L £3.00
Pliskova – Reached the 2nd round (Odds 1.71) – P/L £0.41
Collins – Lost in the 1st Round (Odds 1.79) – P/L £1.27
Pegula – Reached the 3rd Round (Odds 1.57) – P/L -£0.25
Mugurusa – Lost in the 1st round (Odds 1.25) – P/L £4.00
Raducanu Reached the 2nd Round (Odds 1.70) – P/L £0.43

Conclusion

We would have Won £5.48 over the whole tournament this year if we had laid each of the top 10 seeds to the end.

Lay The Draw and Trade out after the First Goal. The Results

The automation files for this trade performed without a hitch and a profit was made even though Manchester City floundered badly losing 2-0 to Crystal Palace.
The lunchtime kick-off was between Leicester City and Arsenal and as we lunched at the Greyhound Inn at Milton Malsor, Arsenal scored in the 5th minute. At 12:36 Betangel detected the goal and duly placed a back bet into the draw market 25 miles away from where I was tucking into my Gammon Egg and Chips and the first trade was settled for a profit of £1.28 whatever the outcome of the game after 90 mins.

The two screenshots above show, firstly, how the bets were placed and secondly the timings, stake, market and odds of each lay and back bets. Nothing in the research predicted the outcome of this match apart from there being at least 1 goal scored which was enough as soccer mystic indicated that which ever side scored first we would see a profitable trade being made.
The second researched game was the Burnley v Brentford game at 3pm. As mentioned in the research there were no previous meetings of these two sides so it all came down to this seasons form in the goals department and again the research bore no resemblance to the actual match played as Burnley opened the scoring after 4 minutes.

£2.10 was the profit taken from this trade but whether it was a VAR factor or a betfair operative going to sleep the market did not become unsuspended for 5 minutes after a somewhat confusing 11 minutes of the game kicking off either way a goal caused the market to move in our favour and a successful trade was executed 11 minutes after the official time of the goal.

Early goals seemed to be the trend yesterday as Liverpool opened their account with a 4th Minute goal from Henderson creating a £4.05 profit for us. 2 minutes after the goal went in the odds of the draw had risen to 12.0 and Betangel duly placed a back bet into the market of £5.83 which was matched 6 minutes and 36 seconds

Total profit so far £7.43

The only losing trade was the Manchester City v Crystal Palace fixture, where, after 6 minutes the second worst thing after a goalless match happened, Crystal Palace scored!! The resulting back bet placed, unemotionally, by betangel made a £9.09 LOSS. This was a slightly better outcome than the scenario projected by Soccer Mystic of a £10.74 loss after a Crystal Palace first goal but at least the bookies are opening the Bolanger this morning.

In contrast to the other games so far it took Chelsea 65 minutes to score the first goal in this game and this gave us the largest profit of the day after backing the draw at odds of 9.4. This made the trade profit at £5.01. I am beginingg to wonder if this is fun or heart failure provoking 🤣.

Che Adams opened the scoring in the Watford v Southampton game 10 minutes after our research suggested. This resulted in our trade making £2.69 profit and as the half time whistles echoed around the grounds we were £1.03 in profit.

Total profit for all researched matches after Chelsea’s 65th Minute Goal came to £6.04
It would be unfair for me not to point out that Laying the draw on the five 3pm games at a stake of £10.00 would need a betfair balance of £250.00.

Laying The Draw and Trading Out after the First Goal – Research

The first Premiership game today is the mid-table clash between Leicester City and Arsenal. The Odds for Leicester are 2.5, Arsenal 3.0 and to Lay the draw the lay odds are 3.75. There has been at least one goal scored in the past 9 games where these two sides have met with just one 1-1 draw in July 2020. This season neither team have scored in the first 15 minutes of the game with Leicester preferring to wait until after the 30th minute to get on the score card. Arsenal, away, have only scored once this season and have conceded at least one goal in each 15 minute time segment. Leicester have scored in all but one of their home games this season only losing to nil against Manchester City. They have also scored 2 or more goals in the last 4 of their matches (Home and Away). Arsenals Away record is dismal but leicster have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 8 matches giving hope that at least 1 goal will be scored. The odds for over 0.5 goals is 1.06 suggesting strongly that the market expects.

After opening “Soccer Mystic” in the Betangel software and putting 30 minutes into the time of first goal we can see that a profit would be gained if either team scored.

Alphabetically Burnley v Brentford is the first 3pm fixture and the odds are similar to the Leicester v Arsenal game earlier in the day. Burnley are slight favourites at 2.76 and Brentford a few ticks higher at odds of 2.96. To lay the draw odds of 3.35 are on offer. Burnley have conceded in all of their home games this season apart from the 0-0 draw against Norwich City. Brentford also have a 0-0 score line against Crystal Palace but have scored in all of their other 3 away games. Both teams have scored in the first 15 minutes but Brentford have the edge with 4 of their seasons goals coming in the first half. With no previous meetings of these two teams there are no head to head stats.

Again after loading the relevant information into Soccer Mystic we see that there would be a slightly better return if the form of Brentford ran true and scored in the 16th minute. A few quid lower liability also makes this an attractive trade.

Liverpool v Brighton is next under the spotlight and with Liverpool knocking at Chelsea’s door in top spot are clear favourites to win this with odds of 1.27. Brighton however, in the same fixture last season , beat Liverpool 0-1! Liverpool have scored first in 3 out of 4 of their last home games whereas Brighton have just one opening goals from the same number of away games (4) Using soccerstats opening goals table we can see that Liverpool’s average time of scoring first is 40 minutes at home and when they did concede first it was in the 22nd minute. Brighton’s only opening goal when away was in the 90th minute and their average conceding time was 24 minutes.

After putting an average time of 40 minutes into Soccer Mystic a first goal by Brighton at this point would have the same result as Lille last night against PSG but the difference here is that after looking back at Lille’s Stats they scored first on no fewer than 4 times out of 7 matches. Confident of a Liverpool opening goal this trade looks good on reflection the level of profit just depends on the timing of the goal.

Another outrageously short “odded” Manchester City host Crystal Palace this afternoon in the 3rd 3pm kick-off and going straight to the first goal time table and see that Manchester have scored 3 opening goals at home this season at an average time of 9 minutes and have not conceded a first goal at home at all this season. A good omen. Crystal Palace have conceded a total of 5 goals in the first half away this season and scored none and Manchester City have scored a total of 6 goals this season at home conceding none.
Putting 9 minutes into Soccer Mystic produces the following figures.

A very high liability in relation to the other matches today does reflect the probability of a draw happening but hopefully the stats will bare out and quite a healthy profit can be made. But remember nothing is without risk.

Top team Chelsea travel to Newcastle today in the penultimate 3pm premiership game today. This might be a slightly more dangerous match to lay the draw on as an early goal by the hosts would see the bet “greening” red! They have opened the scoring 3 times at home this season with an average time of 21 minutes and when they did concede first this came in the 13th minute. Chelsea have yet to concede a first goal when away but have an average opening goal time later in the game than Newcastle at the 33rd minute. A total of 4 goals being scored in the first half at home this season might suggest a “quick score strategy” and hope the opposition don’t counter. This of course wouldn’t happen in this case as Chelsea would come back with vengeance but the damage would be done to our trade. Putting this scenario into Soccer Mystic tells the story

While there seems to be little doubt about a goal in this game the distinct danger is that it will be the home side – not a good thing for this trade.

Back to some sort of normality as far as odds go comes the final 3pm kickoff between Watford and Southampton. The bookies favoutite is Southampton with odds of 2.32 but home side advantage and Watfords opening goal record at home may sway. The assurance of at least one goal by either side is bourne out by the fact that 11 goals have been scored in total over 3 games involving these two teams pitted against teams level or lower in the premiership. Watford have no “clean sheets” this season at home so if we populate Soccer Mystic with Watford’s Opening goal timing of 10 mins we get the following scenarios.

The final game today will have to wait as I have to go out soon.

Lay the Draw and Green Up after a Goal – The results

I highlighted 2 matches yesterday in the post Laying the Draw and Greening Up after a goal The first was PSG – Odds on Favourite to annihilate Lille in Paris and QPR v Notts Forest -an evenly matched championship game between 2 mid-ish table sides with QPR being home favourites by just a small margin. Foolishly I forgot to note the odds of the QPR game but as I noted above one side was odds on (1.41) and the other an evenly matched game.
PSG eventually won the game 2-1 but not before Lille scored first in the 31st minute. As I was trading out of the lay bet after the first goal the scenario outlined in the post came to fruition and the software greened up the bet for a loss of £6.93. I did no research on this match and while PSG eventually won with 2 late goals and a straight lay bet would have won this is not the point of the exercise.
The other game where I did do a little research and concluded that there would be a likelihood of a goal being scored and a profit if either team scored first did come out with a small 83p profit. This game ended 1-1 with each goal being scored in added time of each half (QPR scored first in the 45+5 minute and Notts Forest equalising in the 90+1 minute. A straight lay the draw bet on this game would have been cruelly lost at the very end of the game.
Along with these 2 games I also included the 4 Dutch games played last evening also without research and the following happened
Den Bosch v Jong FC Utrecht
47p Profit
2-1 Den Bosch scored first in the 19th Minute

Emmen v VVV Venlo
£3.33 Profit
1-0 Emmen scored in the 62nd minute

FC Volendam v FC Dordrecht
£1.11 Loss
4-2 FC Dordrecht scored in the 8th minute

MVV Maastricht v Roda JC
£48.00 Loss
0-0 OUCH!!!

I am not put off by these turn of events and this only goes to show that research and testing is key to the conundrum.

Todays Premiership games have already been loaded into Betangel and I will be posting later on my research into these matches