Category Archives: Bets

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further

Due to my workload this past week I have been unable to carry on my study of the 15 tick “system” but yesterday when I was going back through my bets of the “most Tipped horses” it struck me that even though most of the bets were just over evens or odds on there were too many losers! What if I employed the 15 tick system to all of the highly tipped horses. So without further ado I listed the 10 most tipped horses of the day and exported thier form from the “InRunning Trading Tool” website into the spreadsheet I have provided below

top-tipped-27aug2021Download

Of these 10 horses 4 of them did not win (Alhezabr later being dropped to 2nd place in a stewards enquiry) but ALL of them traded at at least 15 ticks below their B.S.P making a 100% strike rate.

HorseMeetingTimeTipsBSPi-p low15 tick oddsresult
Silk RomanceNewmarket13:10111.751.011.61st
Razzle DazzleNewmarket14:2091.951.011.81st
Percy’s PrideFfos Las15:05101.421.011.271st
AlhezabrFfos Las15:40102.041.081.872nd
AsjadFfos Las16:10131.791.121.642nd
Kentucky RoseHamilton16:3593.921.13.142nd
Thunder LegendHamilton17:10111.671.011.521st
Sweet BelieverHamilton18:10121.831.011.681st
Country PyleGoodwood18:23142.681.132.323rd
MahrajaanHamilton18:40102.441.012.141st

As you can see from the table above the 2 most tipped horses Country Pyle (14 tips) and Asjad (13 tips) managed just 3rd and 2nd respectively, but easily managed to impress the traders enough in running to bring the price down to very low odds indeed!
I have produced a spreadsheet to help me determine the odds at which a 15 tick drop lay bet should be placed in relation to the B.S.P. or the actual odds that was available anytime before the off. This is also available for download below

betfair-tick-counterDownload

To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
I have also provided todays 10 most tipped horses exported from Inrunning Trading Tool spreadsheet for your perusal you can download this by clicking down load below



top-tipped-28aug2021Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 7 Bet 2

The Punchestown Festival gets underway today and as SkyBet seem to want to give money away on their boosted bets of late I thought it rude not to take them up on one of their boosts in the 15:40 where they are paying out on 7 places instead of 4 if there are 18 or more runners. The boost is Scholastic placing at odds of 2.0 This is entirely an impulse bet and can’t do any worse than that damned Melbourne team not even being able to score in the second half earlier!!!

Fulham, The Bookies Favourites???

The popularity of boosted trebles is undoubtedly one of the best money spinners for the bookies yet. Enhanced trebles and shots on target are just two “featured” bets offered by bookies which are designed to take your money. The average punter will only see the odds and perhaps 2 “bankers” and think perhaps the third team will win and willingly give the bookies their money
I have just done a blog post on paddy powers friday night special (read it here) which features Fulham
The conclusion to this post was that If the bookies put fulham, at home, in a “featured specially boosted just for the punter enhanced treble” And if the other teams won they would have only had to pay out twice in sixteen times.
If we take the average acca at odds of 6/1 and if the average bet is £10 then you would have staked £160 but won just £120. That is some profit margin for the bookies!!
With just a quick look at the bookmakers sites I found the following had all put Fulham in their “Special” bets tonight.
Paddy Power
Betfair
Boylesports,
Coral
BetVictor.
All I can say is I hope Fulham Win but I doubt it. Another bonza payday for the bookies!!

Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win

Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 10.0 (9/1) to 11.0 (10/1). Norwich are the only odds on favourite of the trio and I will start with them.
Norwich will be looking to reclaim their top spot in the championship with a win against 9th placed Stoke City. Norwich, at home, have won 2 (Bristol City 2-0 Barnsley 1-0) and drawn 2 (Middlesbrough 0-0, QPR 1-1) while skoke have a 100% draw rate in their last 4 away games suggesting a worrying pattern perhaps for Norwich City. Their defeat at the hands of Swansea last week may just have knocked their confidence a trifle. Norwich however are not without ability and have managed 12 points from 8 games while Stoke have only topped up their points total by only 6 in the same number of games. Away defeats for Stoke when playing top of the league sides do seem to have a trend with the exception of reading which they won 0-3 Norwich have some good wins under their belt when playing mid table sides winning to nil against Bristol City, Cardiff City and Barnsley. I would think that on previous form Norwich should win this but not until the last quarter of the game where they seem to score most of their goals.

Cardiff City are hosting Penalty Plagued Coventry City today and should be an interesting game. With home odds of 2.1 Ladbrokes are being the most generous bookie with most others offering 2.0 – 2.05. This does actually look a promising leg of the treble as Coventry City do seem to be prone to conceding goals through penalties with no less than 7 being awarded against the Sky Blues since September, suggesting a defensive weakness that Cardiff may take advantage of, turning the tables on their 1-0 defeat last November when these two teams last met. It does look like a win for Cardiff would put them nearer safety and into the top half of the Championship League. Coventry are far from safe, and desperation causes mistakes which they have proved they make!

As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Ladbrokes are offering 2.60 (0.15 more than William Hill as I mentioned in my previous post https://bet-or-not.com/2021/02/13/rangers-crystal-palace-and-watford-all-to-win/ ) on a home win against 3.0 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.

This treble is as always a risk as it has been boosted by the bookie (always suspect!!)
As Ladbrokes have imposed a maximum stake of £0.00 on my account I will not be taking the risk myself (Yes that’s right A BIG FAT ZERO! they live in fear of me 🙂 )


The best of Luck with whatever you decide 🙂

Rangers, Crystal Palace and Watford all to win

First up Today is William Hills Super Odds – Saturday 3pm Treble
Max stake on this is a fiver and this on its own suggests to the unsuspecting punter that the bookie is frightened that the bet will win. Whereas if you scroll down the page a bit to the enhanced Odds section bigger odds specials exist with no stake restrictions!!
Enough bookie psychology, down to facts
Rangers are flying high at the top of the Scottish Premiership and host 10th place (out of 12) Kilmarnock. The goalscoring ability of rangers at present are with out precedence, managing an average strike rate of 3 goals per match when playing at home, Kilmarnock do struggle a little as they have only managed to score 9 goals away this season. Odds for a rangers win today are 1.15 with Hills. That is quite a carrot on the end of the stick. I will skip Crystal Palace for a minute and look towards the other short priced selection.
Watford are also at home today to Bristol City, will want to collect some points today after a three match streak of only picking up 2 points with goalless draws against Coventry City and Millwall and perhaps an inexcusable defeat at the hands of QPR. 3 points today will keep them level with Reading (who are likely to beat Millwall today) in that all important promotion play-off zone. Watford’s home record while playing mid table teams such as Bristol are Mostly wins with two notable losses One against QPR as I mentioned above and the other against Cardiff City in one of the few matches where Watford failed to score at all. Bristol City on the other hand undoubtedly struggle against teams from the top of the table when away losing to Brentford (3-2), Norwich (2-0), Reading (3-1) and Bournemouth (1-0).
Watford’s defensive posture is second only to Swansea having conceded only 20 goals from 28 games played (Swansea have only conceded 15!). While their offensive record is similar to Bristols, having scored 31 goals to Bristols 29 from the same number (28) of games. Watford seem to be quick goal merchants catching their opponents off guard at the beginning of halves as they, when playing at home, scored 6 in minutes 0-15 and 7 in minutes 46-60. Bristol do have a bigger proportion of conceded goals when away in minutes 0-15 so a big possibility of a morale destroying goal by Watford would Indubitably help their cause.
As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Hill are offering 2.45 on a home win against 3.1 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.

This treble has been boosted from 3/1 (which is very generous as should you put these games into a treble on your betslip you would get 7/2!!) to 5/1

these are the facts and you can make up your own mind
Good Luck with whatever you Decide

Norwich, Inter Milan and Valladolid All to Win

I am afraid that Ladbrokes Friday Night Treble is the subject of todays Blog again! I will grant that they have made it very attractive by boosting the odds to 13.0 (12/1) and by picking teams which are all above their opponents in their respective leagues. However all the teams in question are all playing away, and Norwich have had a particular brutal match Itinerary in the past week. Anyway lets have a look at the stats.

First up is Norwich City. As I mentioned above they have played 3 matches in the last 7 days, the 2 league matches ending in goalless draws and a 1-0 defeat in the F.A. Cup. Not too inspiring so far! Swansea on the other hand have had a relatively huge break of 6 days since their win against Rotherham on Jan 30th. Norwich Manager, Daniel Farke is quoted as saying “This game is no more important than any other” and “We’re going to Swansea and we’re going to try our best in a difficult situation, this is our third game in six days.” I tend to disagree with this statement as Swansea are just 5 points behind Norwich going into this game with a game in hand and better rested. To me this sounds like he already has his excuses ready!
Norwich City are in a precarious position at the top of the league and while automatic promotion seems unlikely at the moment a place in the playoffs is still on the cards but this game is crucial to that goal. Given their recent form perhaps a draw would be a bonus!

Inter Milan are currently 2nd in the League and just 2 points behind AC Milan. Their opponents are 11th place Fiorentina who from the last 4 home games won 2 and drawn 2 albeit against teams who are below them in the League with the exception of Hellas Verona who are 2 places above but points have been earned from all 4 games. Inter Milan’s recent form from the last 4 league away games are 1 win 2 draws and a loss, this coming from 10th place Sampdoria with the most recent match being a goalless draw against 13th place Udinese. A 2-1 defeat in the Copa Italia 3 days ago against Juventus may also be a factor in how Inter play tonight. They certainly have the opportunity to take top spot tonight but with Fiorentina needing to keep the momentum going Inter cannot rest on their laurels in this game.

Finally the tour of Europe ends with this 3rd leg of the treble in Italy and the focus on La Liga’s 16th placed side Valladolid. They play 18th place Alaves in what to all intents and purposes a battle to climb from relegation. Valladolid have, in the last 4 away matches, come away with without defeat. Alaves on the other hand have a bit of an opposite dilemma of having a 3-match losing streak at home. This match is, even though both teams are languishing at the bottom end of La Liga, to my mind probably the banker 🙂

To Bet Or Not – Better Not!

Rangers, Napoli and Lyon all To Win

Ladbrokes are the target treble today again. They have boosted this treble from 4.0 (3/1) to 4.5 (7/2) on the Smarkets exchange you can get 4.8 (Which is very nearly 4/1)
Rangers seem to be the banker leg of this treble and a win tonight will add a further 3 point to their 72 points. With a 100% scoring rate you would hope that there will be plenty of goals.

In the 2nd leg of this treble, 5th place Napoli take on 7th placed Atalanta in Italy’s Coppa Italia clash tonight. Recent form in the league (Serie A) from the last 8 games have seen 4 wins 1 draw and 3 Losses for Napoli but Atalanta have a slightly better record of 4 wins 3 draws and only one Loss which was quite a spanking by 6th place Lazio (1-3). Napoli’s record against similarly matched opponents (3 above and 3 below) includes a 4-0 drubbing against Roma a 1-0 loss against Inter Milan losing to Lazio 2-0 but in the last clash with Atalanta, last October, stuffing them 4-1. Napoli seems to have quite a solid record when playing at home. Atalanta, on the other hand, seems to be content with draws when playing away. As far as this Cup Match goes Napoli’s two games so far in this competition have been 3-2 v Serie B side Empoli and 4-2 against Serie A Side 16th place Spezia. Atalanta’s cup record is a bit more impressive however and consists of knocking out Serie A sides Lazio and Cagliari from the competition with 3-2 and 3-1 scorelines respectively. The Lazio game saw Atalanta have a red card AND a missed penalty! It is plain that both of these teams have ample ability of scoring goals so predicting which side will win is difficult.

The final leg of this conundrum involves the French Ligue 1 clash of Dijon v Lyon. Lyon are at present snapping at the heels of 1st place Lille and a win tonight might just boost them into top spot if Lille draw against Bordeaux. Dijon are most definitely looking at relegation this season with a home record of only 6 points from 11 games. A slightly worrying fact is that Lyon earlier in the season only managed a 1-1 draw against 18th Lorient but this seems to be just a blot on the landscape as Lyon had 6 shots on target and 3 blocked shots so Lorient just had an outstanding defence that day.

The sticking point in this bet is without doubt the Coppa Italia match and creating a new treble by replacing a Napoli win with over 2.5 goals may be prudent if you wanted to. But the aim of this blog is to pick holes in these so called boosted bets and I think I have achieved this.

Watford, Betis and Sporting Lisbon All T Win

Ladbrokes have boosted this Bet to 9.5 (17/2) from 9.0 (8/1) So Generous!!
Using Smarkets to find a Lay Price I find that the price should be closer to 11.0 (10/1) This is Ladbrokes!

Watford are hosting QPR tonight and will move into 3rd place behind Swansea with a win tonight. Form against teams in a similar position to QPR is favourable with 3-2 against Coventry and 2-0 against Rotherham. QPR on the other hand are struggling to stay clear of the relegation zone and are clearly finding this league difficult. Defeats from Barnsley 3-0 and Brentford 2-1 have proved this side have no problem conceding goals. Slightly in their favour are a 1-1 draw against league leaders Norwich who Watford beat 1-0, a goalless draw with Bournemouth however seem to suggest they have difficulty scoring! This has all the hallmarks of a low scoring game with perhaps Watford managing to scrape 3 points from it.

Betis take on Osasuna in a La Liga clash that is perhaps not the most evenly matched contest today. Betis have had convincing wins over all of the bottom third teams in the league with the exception of a 0-2 spanking by Eibar who are currently laying 15th two places above Osasuna. In complete contrast Osasuna have been beaten resoundingly by most of the upper echelon of the league with the notable win against Granada. Tey are, however, not without goalscoring talents having scored 8 goals in 10 away matches compared with Betis managing 4 more while playing at home. The stats suggest that if they get through the first 15 minutes without conceding, but something about this game niggles me. Osasuna have lost their last 9 games away and this one might just be the catalyst to break that habit.

The Portuguese Primeira Liga leaders Sporting CP (Lisbon) is the focus for the last game of this trio and they play Benfica who are currenly 3rd. A win for Lisbon will see them stay 4 points clear as Porto play Rio Ave as well tonight. It is all very tight at the top with everyone having everything to play for. Offensively both teams are pretty evenly matched with Lisbon scoring 33 goals from 15 games, 3 more than Benfica but Benfica are not as efficient in defence conceding 15 goals in as many games 6 more than Lisbon. Neither team has lost a game in the last 8 but Lisbon have only drawn 2 to Benfica’s 3. Both teams drew in their last match and if it wasn’t for the fact that Porto are also playing tonight I would say that this might also be the case again.

The verdict on this Treble to my mind is leave well alone.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1+ Shot on target

Today, at lunchtime, Everton take on Newcastle at Goodison Park. SkyBet have boosted the odds of Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1 or more shots on target from 1/6 to even money. There are stake limits to this boost but if the research pans out and the man actually starts, then any stake used will add towards the Sky Bet Club weekly free bet.
These two teams last met in the premiership on 1st November 20 at St James’ Park and Newcastle won 2-1
This is irrelevant however as we are looking for D.C-L stats and find that he scored Everton’s only goal in the last minute. D.C-L is the teams highest goal scorer this season and is 2 goals off the top for the golden boot on 11 goals scored.
Past performances starting with the most recent games are as follows
v Leicester City (H) 2 shots at goal 1 on target
v Wolves (A) Did not play due to hamstring injury (12 Jan)
v West Ham (H) 2 shots at goal 1 on target
v Sheffield Utd (A) 1 shot on goal 0 on target
v Arsenal (H) 2 shots at goal 1 on target
v Leicester City (A) 3 shots at goal 2 on target
v Chelsea (H) 1 shot at goal 0 on target
v Burnley (A) 4 shots at goal 3 on target
v Leeds Utd (H) 3 shots at goal 1 on target
v Fulham (A) 3 shots at goal 3 on target
v Man Utd (H) 1 shot at goal 0 on target

Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s stats are quite impressive when matched against the likes of Mo Salah and Kane when I researched their shots on goal stats earlier in the week.
Having started 16 times for Everton this season in Premiership Matches he has played for a total of 1409 minutes scored 11 times and has a match average of 1.6 shots on target (same as Kane)
With it being Saturday I can look into todays match itself with a bit more depth. Newcastle’s defensive stance in recent games looks pretty dismal having only won 2 points from the last 8 games and conceded 34 goals from 20 matches played. It would seem that this might be an ideal opportunity for Calvert-Lewin to climb into that top spot in the race for the golden Boot this season.
I will be waiting to see the team sheet before the match and IF he starts then will likely add a few more quid towards my weekly free bet 🙂

Tottenham v Liverpool Shots on Target

Tonight Tottenham host Liverpool. and several bookies are offering boosts to their shots on target markets. Today as all the stats are in one place I will be looking at SkyBets very attractive offer of Kane and Salah to have 2 or more shots on target each at 9.0 (8/1) And Virgin Bets each team 2 or more shots on target each half!! 3.75 (11/4).
Lets start by looking at the last time these 2 teams met on the 16 Dec 2020 at Anfield. The score was 2-1 and Liverpool had most of the match dominating the possession 76% to 24% Liverpool had 11 shots on Target with Tottenham only having 2 . Salah acounted for 4 of those by Liverpool and Kane only one of the 2 by Tottenham. VirginBets offering, at this stage doesnt look too inviting, however I will dig deeper. Kanes’ average shots on target figure is 1.6 / 90 minutes. Salah does not fair much better with an average of 1.8. Both of therse players are the 2 top goal scorers this season with Salah scoring 13 and Kane sharing second spot with Son on 12 goals.

Since that meeting, and starting with Kane, He has had 2 or more shots on target in the following matches.
Leicester (A) 2
Leeds Utd (H) 2
Sheffield Utd (A) 2

Salahs’ only 2 or more shots on target game since 16 Dec is
Crystal Palace (A) 2 (only played 33 minutes)
This seems quite worrying as a dip in form is indicated.

Will probably only put one of my £5.00 free bets on this

After going through the recent form of both teams it seems that 4 shots on target for each team would probably be quite a good bet the problem arises when 2 shots have to be in both halves for both teams. I am still looking for a stats sight that split the halves so will not commit either way on the virginBet Bet