Boylesports have put this gem up and it immediatly took my eye because of the obvious no-no (in my opinion) of never take sides in a derby. As I have pointed out in my previous post about Ladbrokes boosted treble which also included the Arsenal Tottenham derby Tottenham have won 8 of these head to heads since Nov 2010 and drawn 7 leaving Arsenal with just 6 wins out of 21 games. Both teams have just won their Thursday Europa League games and todays team selection will be key and informative as to the intentions of the managers. Both of these teams can still reach Champion League places – such a difficult game to call.
Juventus currently 3rd in Serie A are playing away to 17th placed Cagliari and they are quite bluntly on form at the moment having scored no fewer than 19 goals in 8 matches. Cagliari have not managed to hold off any attacks by the top 7 sides when playing at home this season with their best score being 0-1 v Atalanta.
Spain is the venue for the final leg of this treble and more specifically Eibar where they host 7th placed Villarreal. Eibar are fighting for their place next season and dont have a good record when at home to teams higher in the league. On the other hand teams at the lower end of the league seem to be able to hold Villarreal to a draw most notable being a 0-0 draw to bottom club Huesca.
Good luck with whatever you decide as they have priced it about right at 9.0
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Ladbrokes Premier League Treble. Brighton Leicester and Tottenham all to win.
After finishing my Timeform1-2-3 series in time for the start of Cheltenham next week (read about it here) I am back to picking the bones out of the bookmakers boosted bets. Todays target is Labrokes again. Ladbrokes are incessantly putting adverts on the radio telling all to gamble responsibly and then go and lure unsuspecting punters into their tentacles with these little gems.
Lets look at the Brighton match first as they have plainly put this in alphabetical order to hide it in plain veiw.
Brighton are away to Southampton today in the 12 o’clock kickoff and the odds suggest an away win could be on here. Southamptons home record of late has not been easy reading, having lost 3 and drawn 1 in the last 4 games. Brighton on the other hand have been victorious while playing away against both Leeds and Liverpool, drawn against Burnley but lost against West Brom. Brighton more than Southampton are needing back end season wins to lift them ever more away from the dredded drop zone. A factor against Brighton might be that Southampton have won their home matches when playing against teams that are lower than them in the league, 2-0 Newcastle, 2-0 West Brom, 3-0 Shefield Utd. In the past 7 encounters in this league Brighton have failed to win with Southampton winning 3 times and draws coming in the other games (All score draws by the way)
Next up is Leicester City who are hosting Sheffield Utd this afternoon. As most of you will be aware the tussle at the top is getting just a little more than exciting. With the top spot albeit lost in the clouds the battle for a champions league place can only really be described as savage. Sheffield Utd, even though all seems lost, managed to deny 3 points to Manchester Utd. Leicester cannot afford to lose with Tottenham Everton and West Ham all lookig at that 4th league spot with envious eyes. Recent form suggests that Leicester should win this quite comfortably but nothing should ever be a given in this game. Offensivley Leicester have scored 48 goals in 28 matches whereas sheffield have only managed 16. Leicesters defensive record is not great allowing 32 goals past them in the same 28 games.
Tottenham are away to Arsenal in this most famous of all North London Derbys. This fact alone would prevent me from including this game in any acca! Both teams have just played in the Europa League last Thursday (Both Winning) so fatigue must play a part. A win for Tottenham today would put them into 5th should West Ham lose to Manchester Utd later this evening but Tottenhams away form recently might suggest a different result having won only the most recent game against Fulham 0-1 losing to West Ham 2-1, Man City 3-0 and Brighton 1-0. Head to Head stats are against Tottenham by 13 – 8 (Arsenal wins 6, Draws 7, to Tottenhams 8 wins)
Ladbrokes have boosted this bet to 11.0 from 9.0 but you can get 11.5 on the Smarkets exchange if you are really intent on putting money on this
Betornot 😉
Footy Accumulators PREMIUM BOOST FOR THE MNF ACTION
Just a little bit of research picks holes in this bet.
To begin with a simple look at the cards part shows that both of these players are no Norman Hunters 🥰
Everton’s Doucoure has had 23 premiership appearances this season and has only had a total of 6 yellow cards. His average fouls per game counts as less than 1 at 0.9 per 90 mins perhaps the guy is going for a sainthood. Southampton’s Bertrand fairs no better in the bad boy league with 5 yellows in 23 games he is perhaps slightly more wicked than Doucoure as his foul rate is an incredible 1.2 average per 90 mins. If this doesn’t convince you nothing will but I will delve into Everton’s Rodrigues ability to shoot straight!
Having only made 18 appearances (2 of these as a sub) he has managed an average of only 1.8 shots at goal per game and less than 1 shot on target (0.9) and over half of these get blocked (0.5).
Southamptons Danny Ings is probably the only part of this bet that will come to fruition with an average of 2.3 shots at goal per game 1.2 of these were on target
Personally I wouldn’t put 5p on this bet let alone £5.00
BettOrNot
Footy Accumulators Acca of the Day
Footy Accumulators have posted their Acca of the Day and involves over 2.5 goals happening in 3 separate games
First on the list is Spurs v Burnley, a game I have already flagged as an early goal probability and warned of Tottenham’s tendency to concede makes this a probable outcome even though over 2.5 goals at Tottenham and when Burnley play away are both pegged at only 33%. This is a distinct void compared to Tottenhams home over 1.5 goals pecentage being over 80% (83%)
Second on the list is the Inter v Genoa match in this Serie A mismatch Inter could and probably will fulfill this leg on their own having an average goal scoring rate at home of 2.91 and an over 2.5 goals match percentage matching Tottenhams over 1.5 percentage! If you couple with this the the fact that Inter have only “Won to Nil” in 27% of their home games this leg would be as close to a banker as you could probably get.
Third and final leg of this acca is the Bundesliga bottom half tussle between Mainz and Augsburg. This might be the let down as Mainz at home concede or score 3 goals in only 36% of the time. Slightly more encouraging is the fact that Augsburg away achieve a 50% rate usually done in the second half.
If the Tottenham game was first to be played time wise the distinct possibility of the early goal would make this a layable prospect.
BettorNot 🙂
Ladbrokes Premier League Treble. Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs All to win
Ladbrokes have chosen the 3 big London clubs to create this interesting treble. Boosted from 9.0 (8/1) to 11.0 (10/1) seems a fair price as 10.0 is all you can get on the smarkets exchange.
First Game on the list is Leicester v (The Mighty) Arsenal, and at first sight Leicesters form from the last 4 home and away games is won 3 drawn 1 in contrast to Arsenal who have lost 3 and Won 1. It is all very tense at the top and leicester are level on points with Man Utd in their race to catch the seemingly unstoppable Man City. Arsenal’s last premiership away match was against Aston Villa 22 days ago and were beaten with a “surprise” 2nd minute goal. The Wolves game 4 days earlier was just a nightmare for them as 2 red cards and a penalty sealed this and very probably the villa game too with 2 suspensions and 4 out injured. Leicester have a great deal to gain from this match as Man Utd will need to beat an inform Chelsea. With Barnes only coming on late against Prague on Thursday may well see him fresh for this premiership clash.
Chelsea are are narrow favourites to win this game over Man Utd and should they do so and Leicester beat Arsenal it would pitch them 1 point above West Ham into 4th place. Chelsea are on form since losing manager Frank Lampard and Momentum may well carry them on to victory here. The very real battle for a mathematical top spot for Manchester cannot be discounted however and their goal scoring ability playing away from home speaks volumes and they will want to lift themselves from the doldrums that they are presently stranded in. The lack of a Stamford Bridge crowd could well be a deciding factor in this clash of premier titans.
Spurs host Burnley in this 2 o’clock kick off and reading from the match odds should be a walk in the park for them. But away goals can never be discounted at Tottenham home games and their form this season has seen them concede to all the teams below Burnley in the league except West Brom. All this being said however these two sides have met on ne fewer than 11 times since 2014 and Burnley have never won at the Tottenham ground.
If we take the Exchange odds of this treble as the most accurate it amounts to a 10% implied probability and with 9 possible outcomes of this treble, having the correct 3 fall into line considering who is playing seems a bit of a tall order. This may well be another treble that Ladbrokes win
Bettornot eh?
Derby, Hearts and Eintracht Frankfurt all to Win
Ladbrokes have picked 3 “favourites” to boost tonight with this treble being boosted from 7.5 to 9.0
1st on the list are Derby County who are hosting Nottingham Forest in a Midlands Derby tonight. To say Derby County are favourites can only be because of the fact that they are at home. Derby are currently 18th in the League and in all fairness won their last four home games with only Huddersfield being below them in the championship. Derby County it must be said though, are on fire at the moment gaining 18 points from eight games both home and away.
Nottingham Forest being only two places above Derby have not embarrassed themselves either having won 14 points from their last eight games. They drew two of their matches at home against Barnsley who are 8th and Swansea who are 4th. Nottingham have scored more goals away than Derby have at home. Without fans at this local Derby, we might see a distinct lack of goals with Derby probably scoring first in the first half and Nottingham Forest equalising in the second
Moving North to Inverness where the second leg of this treble will see League leaders Hearts try to extend their lead over Dunfermline in the championship. Playing away hearts have accrued a total of 16 points from the last eight games only dropping points against 4th place Queen of the South drawing 1-1 and losing to Dundee 3-1 who are currently 5th. In the last four home games inverness have drawn three and lost one. All these drawn games have had goals, and this has to be a factor that could cast doubt into hearts expected victory as inverness have an 83% equalising rate!
Frankfurts trip to Bremen concludes this threefold quandary.
Frankfurt are firing on all cylinders at the moment leading the form table by 4 points amassing 22 points from eight games to Bremen’s 9. Frankfurt are averaging 2.18 goals per game this season wow big while playing away in contrast to Bremen’s home goal average of less than one (0.9).
Frankfurt it seems, tends to apply pressure on their hosts midway through the second half where they have scored eight of their 24 away goals. Bremen’s goals scored while playing at home only total 9. I would expect Bremen to lose tonight
Good luck with whatever you decide
Bettornot!
Brighton v Crystal Palace Both teams to score in the 1st Half
Boylesports have boosted this one from 9/2 to 5/1 and it caught my eye as to why!!
Brighton first. In all matches (Home and Away ) Brighton have only managed to score a total of 12 goals in the 1st half. When they are playing at home that figure is cut to 5. Just 5 goals in the 1st half from 12 games!
If we look at who these goals were against, the first was a 40th minute penalty against Man Utd, No 2 was an own goal by J. Livermore of West Brom. 3rd was another penalty , this time in the 26th minute against Southampton. The 4th and 5th goals were actually scored by Brighton players Connolly in the Wolves match and Trossard in the Spurs match. Only 2 of these 5 goals then were actually “in play” Crystal Palace have only given away 2 penalties this season, both were in the second half and both in the same match against Chelsea. They also have not scored any own-goals away from home this season either. If Brighton hope to score in the first half it look like they will have to do it on their own without any help from Palace. Having said all of that however Crystal Palace have conceded 8 goals in the 1st half when playing Away (which is 4 times as many as Brighton have scored without help).
Moving onto Crystal Palaces 1st half scoring prowess shows that when playing away they managed to beat Brightons scoring ability by 1 (including penalties and own-goals) one of these was an own goal and 2 were scored in the same game. Brighton for all of their lack of ability to score goals do seem to have a better record of denying the opposition in the first half, conceding just 6 in the 1st half when playing at home as opposed to 9 in the second half.
A quid would get you a pint and it might be worth it. The likleyhood is that given these teams league positions there may well be a 0-0 draw as has happened a total of 4 times this season with 2 of Brightons coming from the Fulham and Burnley games.
Good Luck in Whatever you decide I will be trying for a free pint 🍺
West Ham, Aston Villa, and Man City all to win
Ladbrokes continue to entice unsuspecting punters to part with their money offering attractive odds on mediocre trebles but sticking an “odds on” banker in there to sweeten it. They have called this one their “Early Kick Off” Treble even though Man City dont kick off until 16:30.
West Ham host Tottenham today in the “Early Kick off” in this North London Derby. I would imagine that confidence is high in the ladbrokes camp as they have priced West Ham at 3.0 (2/1) on a home victory. West Ham’s form figures for the last 8 games (home and away) read WWWWLWDW quite impressive until you look more closely and see who they played. Tottenham’s form is very much less impressive WDWLLLWL. 3 of these losses came at the hands of Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool.
West Ham are without Ogbonna in defence today who is out due to an ankle injury. They are currently sitting in 5th place six points in front of Tottenham who have a game in hand and two wins (Today and v Burnley next weekend would see them vying for a europa league spot. After today Tottenham’s next 3 premiership games see them up against Burnley, Fulham and Crystal Palace. West Ham have both Manchesters and Leeds as their next 3 Premiership clashes.
Aston Villa host Leicester City in the middle leg of this treble and an inform Leicester will be wanting to monopolise on their 3-1 victory over Liverpool last week. A win today will see them claim second place in the league and goals will be crucial to keeping Manchester Utd at bay Again Ladbrokes post odds of 3.1 for the home victory leaving Leicester City firm favourites at 2.37 to win away . Aston Villa’s form at home against teams higher in the league can only be counted from 2 matches the most recent of which against West Ham they Lost 1-3 as a plus however they did give Liverpool a spanking earlier in the season winning 7-2. Leicester on the other hand have solid form against mid-table teams. The second half may well decide this game as Aston Villa where they have conceded 64% of their goals against in contrast to Leicester’s 70% of goals scored away from home come in the second half.
Final game in this trio of trouble comes the 16:30 kick off between League leaders Man City and 9th place Arsenal. The Emirates Stadium will be silent again to fans and you cant help but wonder if this has a profound effect on the players. We all know that the home advantage is worth something but without the encouragement of thousands of devoted fans, can that advantage be canceled or even reversed. Man City do seem to be unstoppable with their last 8 games ending in victory whether they were home or away or playing top or bottom teams. They have only lost one game and drawn 3 all season when playing away. Odds of 1.5 are hard to oppose given their current form but odds of 6.5 for a home win seem excessive.
The odds for this tremble have been boosted from 13.0 (12/1) to 15.0 (14/1).
Good luck in whatever you decide.
Betornot!!
Update on Boosted Odds
23rd Jan West Ham, Brighton and Norwich All to Win Lost +£10
31st Jan Getafe and Sporting Gijon both to win Lost +£10
1st Feb Watford, Betis and Sporting Lisbon All T Win Lost +£10
3rd Feb Rangers, Napoli and Lyon all To Win Lost +£10
5th Feb Norwich, Inter Milan and Valladolid All to Win Lost +£10
9th Feb Man Utd, Inter Milan and Real Madrid all to win Lost +£10
12th Feb Preston, Hearts and RB Leipzig All to Win Lost +£10
13th Feb Rangers, Crystal Palace and Watford all to win Lost +£10
13th Feb Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win Lost +£10
14th Feb Wolves, Celtic and Brentford All to Win Lost +£10
15th Feb Chelsea, Athletic Bilbao and Gent all to Win Won – £30 😭😭
19th Feb Leeds, Real Betis and Lyon all to win Lost +£10
20th Feb Burnley, Liverpool and Fulham All to win Lost +£10
If you were going to back these boosted odds bets with £10.00 and after reading my Blog decided not to You would be £90 better off
Only one of the Boosted odds bets that I have covered actually won and have counted this as a bet that would have netted you £30 if placed on the exchange and therefore counted it as a loss for the sake of these figures. The boost itself would have netted you only £27.50!
Burnley, Liverpool and Fulham All to win
Ladbrokes have several boosted trebles out this morning and Boosted from 6.0 (5/1) to 7.0 (6/1) is burnley, Liverpool and Fulham all to win
Burnley v West Brom
Burnley’s home form is slightly better than West Brom away form. From the last 4 home games Burnley’s form reads DDLW whereas West Brom away form is LLLD.
On the 19th Oct 20 these two teams met in West Bromwich where the game ended goalless. Burnleys home games have however never ended goalless and Neither has West Broms Away games so we can expect to see at least one goal today but from who is anyones guess as proved mid week when an early goal against Man Utd forced a 1-1 goal against the in-form giant. Burnley have come back to win only once at home after their opponents scored first and that was against Aston Villa which ended 3-2. 7 out of 14 of Burnley’s Home game conceded goals came in the first half with 3 of these in the first 15 minutes.
Liverpool v Everton
Anfield see these two mersey stalwarts do battle yet again and because of the Bat Flu, Everton fans will not be at the ground to witness perhaps there first victory at the ground since 1999. It is being shown live however on sky Sports so be prepared for power cuts as 1.4million scousers all tune in at once 😊
Both teams will be out to win and Liverpool perhaps have more to prove with being such out of form in the league. LLLD form from the last 4 home league games have to be improved. An Everton victory today will see the two mersey teams level on points but with Everton having a game in hand and with Everton having conceded less goals away than Liverpool have conceded at home this promises to be a promising battle.
Fulham v Sheffield Utd
Fulham are hosting bottom side Sheffield Utd tonight and today might just be one of those rare times that BetVictor have to Pay up their £2.00 free bet when Fulham win 🤑 If we look at the average points per game (PPG) it can only signal disaster for both sides, with Fulham managing to gain just over 1/2 point per game (0.58) and Sheffield taking an average 0.33 PPG. If you compare this with 10th place Arsenal who average 1.5 PPG and top placed Man City’s 2.25 PPG you get a feel of just how doomed these two sides are. Fulham have managed 1 home win and 3 draws when playing at home whereas Sheffield have an away win and an away draw neither stats being very inspiring. Perhaps BetVictors £2.00 free bet will be safe for another week!
A safer bet than this treble would to put over 1.5 goals for each game into a treble
Burnley Playing at Home Over 1.5 goals 58%
West Brom away Over 1.5 Goals 92%
Liverpool at Home Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Everton Away Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Fulham at Home Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Sheffield Away Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Good luck with whatever you choose to do
Betornot 