Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Four selections today and going into the 5th day with a profit of £3.78 First selection to run today is
4:27 Nottingham : Phoenix Passion Advised Odds 5/2 (3.5) Odds available at 10:00 : 13/8 (2.63) Stake £3.07 Result –
Second to run is
5:35 Kempton : Remaat Advised Odds 11/1 (12.0) Odds available at 10:00 : 3/1 (4.0) Stake £1.67 Result –
Odds of 3/1 taken as SkyBet are offering Best Odds Guaranteed
The third Selection was City House in 7:15 at Kempton but has been withdrawn and is a non-runner.
Fourth and Final Selection today is 7:45 Kempton : Miss Kubelik Advised Odds 9/2 (5.5) Odds available at 10.00 10/3 (4.33) Stake £1.50 Result –
Good Luck all – need it – these bets take me into a Loss state 😂
Requesting your own “build a bet” is not as daunting as first supposed they can only say no or more probably not reply at all but in the cases where they do price your bet they sometimes feature it on the platform. Firstly you need to be armed with your own figures and an idea of what sort of markets you are going to put in to it. To this end I have the beginnings of a Workbook for the premiership which will list the following probable outcomes based on the seasons figures for each team involved. Full Time Goals Half Time Goals Match Shots Match Shots on Target Match Fouls Match Corners Booking Points BTTS
The following is a screen Shot of the stats and actual results from the 2nd game of the season Arsenal v Notts Forest
Arsenal v Notts Forest Sat 12 Aug 2023
The data on the left is collated from all the games Arsenal played at home in the premiership in the season 22/23 and all the games Notts Forest played away in the season The figures on the right are the actual stats from the game played. As you can see the predictions were right on all counts save total shots and the BTTS predictions.
The following games were played that first league week Burnley v Manchester City – No Data
Arsenal v Nott’m Forest – As Above
Bournemouth v West Ham
Bournemouth v West Ham Sat 12 Aug 23
Brighton v Luton – No Data
Sheffield Utd v Crystal Palace – No Data
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Newcastle Utd v Aston Villa Sat 12 Aug 23
Brentford V Tottenham
Brentford v Tottenham Sun 13 Aug 23
Chelsea v Liverpool
Chelsea v Liverpool Sun 13 Aug 23
Man Utd v Wolves
Man Utd v Wolves Mon 14 Aug 23
As you can see from the above screenshots there was just one match which was a winner with all selections coming in.
Nott’m Forest v Sheffield Utd – No Data
Fulham v Brentford – 0-3
Fulham v Brentford Sat 19 Aug 23
Liverpool v Bournemouth – 3-1
Liverpool v Bournemouth Sat 19 Aug 23
Wolves v Brighton – 1-4 Note – The actual corners leg won as the prediction was 8+ ie 8 or more but the bet still lost on the BTTS leg ( I will explain the intricates of the bets below as some bookmakers interpret the wording of bets differently to others)
Wolves v Brighton Sat 19 Aug 23
Tottenham v Man Utd – 2-0
Tottenham v Man Utd Sat 19 Aug 23
Man City v Newcastle Utd – 1-0
Man City v Newcastle Utd Sat 19 Aug 23
Aston Villa v Everton – 4-0
Aston Villa v Everton Sun 20 Aug 23
West Ham v Chelsea – 3-1
West Ham v Chelsea Su 20 Aug 23
Crystal Palace v Arsenal – 0-1
Crystal Palace v Arsenal Mon 21 Aug 23
Luton Town v Burnley – No Data This match was postponed until 3rd Oct 23
Week 2 saw two of our bet builder bets winning but we are regularly being let down by the BTTS selection but I am getting a degree of success with this workbook when I back test Week 3 saw another two builda bets coming in Bournemouth v Tottenham and Newcastle v Liverpool with 2 more being let down by the BTTS leg.
What odds can you expect to get with these bets? That depends on the bookmakers who are willing to price these bets up! You can request these bets via the twitter (or X as it is now known) by using the individual betting sites hash tag address and I found that if you sent your request to them with all of the bookies hash tags in the message then whether or not they thought they might be in competition with each other the odds tended to come back slightly better. The following was one such bet I requested for the Leicester City v West Brom game on 20th April
Typical request a bet post
I got a quick response from Coral with favourable odds of 7/1 (8.0) I also got a message from SkyBet saying that I could build this bet on there platform but this was not strictly true as they didn’t offer some of the legs that I requested. But it is always wise to shop around.
This bet lost 🙄 on the corners leg as I requested a price on the Over 10.5 instead of 10+ market If I had worded this as “10+ Corners” it would have won!!! as there was exactly 10 corners in the match
Lastly I will provide this work in Progess worksheet for you to backtest the entire season if you wish however the 3 promoted sides last season – Burnley, Luton and Sheffield Utd will have no data for the 22/23 season
With a couple of hours to wait until Wednesday pick I thought I might just show off my pick from yesterday West Hams striker Antonio, Never heard of him before but apparently he has the opportunity for a premiership first – to score AND assist in four consecutive matches in the premier league Lets hope he gets a hattrick then 😁
Boylesports have put this gem up and it immediatly took my eye because of the obvious no-no (in my opinion) of never take sides in a derby. As I have pointed out in my previous post about Ladbrokes boosted treble which also included the Arsenal Tottenham derby Tottenham have won 8 of these head to heads since Nov 2010 and drawn 7 leaving Arsenal with just 6 wins out of 21 games. Both teams have just won their Thursday Europa League games and todays team selection will be key and informative as to the intentions of the managers. Both of these teams can still reach Champion League places – such a difficult game to call. Juventus currently 3rd in Serie A are playing away to 17th placed Cagliari and they are quite bluntly on form at the moment having scored no fewer than 19 goals in 8 matches. Cagliari have not managed to hold off any attacks by the top 7 sides when playing at home this season with their best score being 0-1 v Atalanta. Spain is the venue for the final leg of this treble and more specifically Eibar where they host 7th placed Villarreal. Eibar are fighting for their place next season and dont have a good record when at home to teams higher in the league. On the other hand teams at the lower end of the league seem to be able to hold Villarreal to a draw most notable being a 0-0 draw to bottom club Huesca. Good luck with whatever you decide as they have priced it about right at 9.0
Ladbrokes continue to entice unsuspecting punters to part with their money offering attractive odds on mediocre trebles but sticking an “odds on” banker in there to sweeten it. They have called this one their “Early Kick Off” Treble even though Man City dont kick off until 16:30. West Ham host Tottenham today in the “Early Kick off” in this North London Derby. I would imagine that confidence is high in the ladbrokes camp as they have priced West Ham at 3.0 (2/1) on a home victory. West Ham’s form figures for the last 8 games (home and away) read WWWWLWDW quite impressive until you look more closely and see who they played. Tottenham’s form is very much less impressive WDWLLLWL. 3 of these losses came at the hands of Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. West Ham are without Ogbonna in defence today who is out due to an ankle injury. They are currently sitting in 5th place six points in front of Tottenham who have a game in hand and two wins (Today and v Burnley next weekend would see them vying for a europa league spot. After today Tottenham’s next 3 premiership games see them up against Burnley, Fulham and Crystal Palace. West Ham have both Manchesters and Leeds as their next 3 Premiership clashes.
Aston Villa host Leicester City in the middle leg of this treble and an inform Leicester will be wanting to monopolise on their 3-1 victory over Liverpool last week. A win today will see them claim second place in the league and goals will be crucial to keeping Manchester Utd at bay Again Ladbrokes post odds of 3.1 for the home victory leaving Leicester City firm favourites at 2.37 to win away . Aston Villa’s form at home against teams higher in the league can only be counted from 2 matches the most recent of which against West Ham they Lost 1-3 as a plus however they did give Liverpool a spanking earlier in the season winning 7-2. Leicester on the other hand have solid form against mid-table teams. The second half may well decide this game as Aston Villa where they have conceded 64% of their goals against in contrast to Leicester’s 70% of goals scored away from home come in the second half. Final game in this trio of trouble comes the 16:30 kick off between League leaders Man City and 9th place Arsenal. The Emirates Stadium will be silent again to fans and you cant help but wonder if this has a profound effect on the players. We all know that the home advantage is worth something but without the encouragement of thousands of devoted fans, can that advantage be canceled or even reversed. Man City do seem to be unstoppable with their last 8 games ending in victory whether they were home or away or playing top or bottom teams. They have only lost one game and drawn 3 all season when playing away. Odds of 1.5 are hard to oppose given their current form but odds of 6.5 for a home win seem excessive. The odds for this tremble have been boosted from 13.0 (12/1) to 15.0 (14/1).
Tonights boosted bet is courtesy of SkyBet and involves the Southampton v Arsenal Game which Kicks off at 20:15.
They have very considerately provided the following information
Ings landed the Featured Price Boost with a shot on target on Saturday against Arsenal.
Ward-Prowse had a shot on target last Tuesday against Shrewsbury.
Lacazette has had 9 shots on target in his last 5 Premier League games.
The odds for this is at the time of writing 7.0 (6/1) so 10 quid will net you £60
The last time these two teams played each other was Saturday 23 Jan 2021 – Today is 26 Jan 2021 The venue is the same The three players in question had the following shots Ings – 4 shots only 1 on target (Played 85 mins ) Ward Prowse 3 shots 0 on target (Played 90 mins) Lacazette 0 shots 0 on target (Played 18 mins!!)
These simple stats read very differently from the information provided.
Further investigation, therefore, is warranted
Starting with Lacazette v Newcastle (H) 2 shots on target. played 90 minutes. v Crystal Palace (H) 0 shots on target. played 81 minutes. v Newcastle (FA CUP (H)) 0 shots on target. played 18 minutes. v West Brom (A) 4 shots on target. played 90 minutes. v Brighton (A) 1 shot on target. played 24 Minutes v Chelsea (H) 2 shots on target (one was a penalty) played 90 Minutes This paints, perhaps, a truer picture of the fact that when he actually makes the 1st XI there is more likelihood of him taking a couple of shots and getting them on target. If he is not even on the starting sheet then this is a great cause for concern on taking up this bet.
Next up Ings v Shrewsbury DNP (Did Not Play) v Leicester DNP v Liverpool 2 shots on target (one Goal) played 77 minutes
Finally Ward-Prowse v Shrewsbury 1 shot on target. played 90 minutes v Leicester 0 shots on target. played 90 minutes v Liverpool 0 shots on target Played 90 minutes
These facts are enough to convince me not to spend a tenner here 🙂
Betornot 