Tag Archives: gambling

Master the “Back to Lay” Strategy in Tennis Trading

In our introductory post, Tennis Trading: The Different Trades You Can Make on a Tennis Match, we broke down the core pillars of operating on a betting exchange like Betfair.

Today, we are diving into item #2 on that list: The Back to Lay Strategy.

If you’ve ever watched a tennis match and known deep down that a player was about to mount a comeback, go on a hot streak, or break serve, Back to Lay is the execution tool you need. Unlike standard betting, where you need a player to win the entire match to collect a payout, Back to Lay allows you to lock in guaranteed profit before the final point is even played.

What is a “Back to Lay” Trade?

At its simplest, Back to Lay is the sports trading equivalent of buying low and selling high:

  1. BACK (Buy): You place a £10 bet on a player at high odds when the market understates their immediate chances.
  2. WAIT: The player gains momentum, scores key points, or wins a game/set, causing their decimal odds to shorten (drop).
  3. LAY (Sell): You bet against that same player using a £10 stake at lower odds to lock in a profit across all outcomes (“greening up”).

By placing a £10 Lay bet at lower odds, you hedge your original risk and create a position where you earn a profit regardless of who ultimately lifts the trophy.

Entry Points: When Should You Back to Lay?

Winning at Back to Lay comes down to spotting market overreactions or structural pivot points. Here are three prime entry triggers:

1. Fading the Cold Favorite

A strong pre-match favorite drops the first set or gets broken early. Their odds drift sharply higher due to panic selling in the market. If underlying match statistics (first-serve percentage, unforced errors) show they are simply cold rather than injured, backing them with a £10 stake at peak odds offers tremendous value before their inevitable response.

2. High-Stress Game Pivots (Scalping the Server)

When a dominant server drops to $0-30$ or $15-40$ in a service game, their match odds momentarily spike. If you place a £10 Back bet on them to fight back and hold serve, their odds will drop right back down after two or three big serves, giving you a quick exit window to Lay them for £10.

3. Surface & Matchup Advantage

Underdogs often start aggressively on fast surfaces (like grass or indoor hard courts). Backing a heavy-hitting underdog with a £10 stake pre-game or early in Set 1, then laying them off for £10 the moment they score an early break or force a tiebreak, yields quick tick profits.

Real Match Walkthroughs

Example 1: The Favorite Recovery

  • Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
  • Situation: Pre-match, Alcaraz is trading at 1.50. Early in Set 1, Sinner plays lights-out tennis, breaks twice, and takes the set 6-2.
  • Market Shift: Alcaraz’s match odds drift up to 2.40.

Net Result:

  • If Alcaraz Wins: You win £14 from your Back bet and lose £6 on your Lay bet liability = +£8 Profit.
  • If Sinner Wins: You lose your £10 Back bet and win the £10 Lay stake = £0 (Break-even).

Example 2: Break-Point Scalp

  • Match: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina
  • Situation: Set 1 is tied at 4-4, 30-30 on Rybakina’s serve. Rybakina misses a first serve and commits an unforced error to bring up Break Point (30-40).
  • Market Shift: Sabalenka’s odds drop to 1.65 anticipating the break.
  1. Trade Entry: You Back Sabalenka at 1.65 for £10 (Potential profit: £6.50).
  2. Match Event: Sabalenka strikes a deep return-winner to convert the break and go up 5-4, serving for the set.
  3. Price Movement: Sabalenka’s odds instantly shorten to 1.30.
  4. Trade Exit: You Lay Sabalenka for £10 at 1.30 (Liability: £3.00).

Net Result:

  • If Sabalenka Wins: You win £6.50 on the Back bet minus the £3.00 Lay liability = +£3.50 Profit.
  • If Rybakina Wins: You lose the £10 Back bet and win the £10 Lay stake = £0 (No Loss).

3 Essential Rules for Back to Lay Trading

  1. Always Set a Stop-Loss Before Entering: If you Back a player with a £10 stake expecting a turnaround, but they get broken again, execute your £10 Lay trade at higher odds to cut losses quickly. Never convert a trade into a standard “hope” bet.
  2. Watch the Live Feed, Not Just the Scoreboard: Television and betting exchange streams often have a 3–7 second delay. Use courtside data or live video feeds where possible to avoid getting caught out by fast-moving points.
  3. Account for Serve Dynamics: WTA (women’s) matches statistically see a higher frequency of service breaks, leading to larger price swings than ATP (men’s) matches. Adjust your profit targets and volatility expectations accordingly.

For a visual breakdown of entry points and odds movement on betting exchanges, watch How to Trade Tennis on Betfair. This video walks through real-time exchange ladder movements and execution techniques.

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 6th June

What a couple of days!!
Needed a puncture repaired yesterday on my wife’s car so was only able to post the results but did manage to get the bets on and today I was caught up in that disaster area called Oxford with no way round it as my last delivery this morning was in Bicester. So I am sat with a great big Gin and Tonic
This post will serve as both information and results
Wednesday saw a good winner in Phoenix Passion yielding a £6.75 profit giving an overall profit for the month of £7.36.

Hugh Taylor tipped 3 horses yesterday and the same format for my bets remains the same with the exception of Half Moon Rising which runs in the 5:10 at Haydock and is first to run and is an e/w bet. For this I worked out the stake needed for the £5.00 profit and simply did an e/w bet at S.P doubling the stake so to speak.
As I mentioned Half Moon Rising ran first at Haydock in the 5:10
Advised Odds were 28/1 (29.0)
By the time i was able to get a bet on the odds had dropped to 11/1 (12) so the stake was 45p E/W this being a total of 90p

I did think that this might have had a halfway chance as SkyBet were paying 4 places, should have known better but the odds did drift not as much to the advised price but to 18/1 (19.0)
Next on the card was Alpen Power running at Chelmsford in the 6:45 and I backed it for £1.50 at S.P. which means that the odds available must have been around 10/3 (4.33) from an advised price of 9/2

As you can see the price continued to shorten until post time
Finally and when I was on my way to Dagenham for my first delivery Divine Breath ran in the 8:15 also at Chelmsford. Backed at S.P. at odds relating to a £5.00 profit of 11/8 (2.38) down from advised odds of 2/1 (3.0)

The odds recovered a bit, not to the level of the advised price but enough to give me an extra £1.34 over my £5.00 target.
So another win yesterday has increased my Monthly profit to £11.30.

Next post will be Todays selections and bet amounts.

Hugh Taylor – Dont be in a Rush To Back His Selections 5th June

Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.

Four selections today and going into the 5th day with a profit of £3.78
First selection to run today is

4:27 Nottingham : Phoenix Passion
Advised Odds 5/2 (3.5)
Odds available at 10:00 : 13/8 (2.63)
Stake £3.07
Result –

Second to run is

5:35 Kempton : Remaat
Advised Odds 11/1 (12.0)
Odds available at 10:00 : 3/1 (4.0)
Stake £1.67
Result –

Odds of 3/1 taken as SkyBet are offering Best Odds Guaranteed

The third Selection was City House in 7:15 at Kempton but has been withdrawn and is a non-runner.


Fourth and Final Selection today is
7:45 Kempton : Miss Kubelik
Advised Odds 9/2 (5.5)
Odds available at 10.00 10/3 (4.33)
Stake £1.50
Result –

Good Luck all – need it – these bets take me into a Loss state 😂

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 4th June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.


With a profit down to £5.01 today just 1 selection was tipped

Willowbank ran in the 8:15 at Lingfield last night

Willowbank placed 3rd

Profit is Plummeting and now stands at £3.78 for the month

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 3rd June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors 3 selections at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.


With a profit of £8.61 today saw 3 selections run

First to run was Gutsy Girl which was advised at odds of 4/1 (5.0) I backed it at 11:45 at S.P but the odds available then was 5/2 (3.5)
Unfortunately it could only manage 3rd place.

Gutsy Girl (3rd)

Profit is Plummeting and the next to run was Valkyrian in the 8:45 at Windsor Advised at Publication at 16/1 (17.0)
Stake was 67p at S.P. as available odds had halved to 15/2 (8.5)
S.P. Odds recovered to 12/1 (13.0) which would have been nice if it had won instead of coming 7th

Valkyrian (7th)

With another 67p knocked off the profit the last runner on Hughs list was Coin Power. Advised at odds of 10/1 (11.0) by the time I got my 91p on at 11:45 the odds had dropped to 11/2 (6.5)
By Post time the S.P. was 7/1 so again disappointing not to have surpassed advised odds but had it of won instead of coming 8th then I would have a profit of £6.37 instead of my target fiver.

Coin Power (8th)


Numerous people have now pointed out to me that S.P. is a poor bet and I agree but in all of the runners so far this month all have been above the odds available at the time the bet was struck so that with any other bookie than SkyBet Best Odds Guaranteed would have been applicable and instead of backing at S.P. I would have taken the offered odds for my Guaranteed fiver if it won.
The sole purpose of this study if you like is to try and make people see that, yes the bookies decimate the odds to capitalize on the faithful which to my mind is despicable, but the odds can and do recover sometimes to a mark greater than the advised price at publication time.
Its a good job Hugh had a couple of winners Saturday because my Profit is now down to £5.03

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 2nd June – The Results

Today I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.


Todays Selection was Cargin Bhui which ran at Hamilton this evening.
Advised odds were 11/4 but just 1 hour later those odds had been cut to 2/1
Working to a profit of £5.00 per winner I staked £2.50 to Win at S.P. in the hope that the odds drifted towards post time
A very close 2nd place has reduced my June Profit to £8.61

S.P. as you can see was 3/1
Another selection where S.P. was greater than the advised odds 👍

Hugh Taylor – Dont be in a Rush To Back His Selections 1st June – The Results

Yesterday I backed all four of Hugh Taylors ATR racing tips but instead of clamoring to get my money on before the odds disappeared I simply backed them at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

First in the List was Sea of Thieves in the 2:00 at Epsom Downs at an advised price at publication of 14/1. This was published at 9:11 and by 10:30 the odds were 9/1. I backed this at S.P. for 56p which would have given me £5.00 profit if the odds stayed at 9/1 or a bonus amount if the odds drifted and by some miracle the horse won.

As you can see from the settled bet that the price did drift, not to the advised price but close and if it had won would have given a profit of £6.72 instead of the £5.00 at the 9/1 price.

Second to run was Billy Webster in the 3:10 again at Epsom. Published at 9:24 at advised odds of 10/1. I again backed this at S.P. for a stake of 83p as the odds available at 10:30 were down to 6/1

The calculation for these bets is simple Target profit / Decimal odds -1
£5.00 / (7.00 – 1)

By Post Time the odds had drifted to 14/1 which would have given a profit of £11.62 if it had won.

Taylors next selection to run was also at Epsom and he tipped Relentless Voyager in the 5:15 at an advised price of 13/2 (7.5) at the publication time of 9:03. By 10:30 these odds had sunk to 4/1 or 5.0 in decimal. Backed at S.P. for a stake of £1.00 to reap a £5.00 profit if the odds didn’t sink further.

As you can see the odds drifted out to 7/1 (8.0) at post time and the horse won giving a profit of £7.00 instead of the £5.00 target figure.

Taylors fourth and final runner was at Doncaster in the 6:15 and was published on the ATR website at 09:39. Wild Waves price was advised at 9/2 (5.50) at this time and an hour later was a mere 5/2 (3.50) on Sky Bet. Backed at S.P. for a £2.00 stake my target profit if the odds didn’t dip below this price and if the horse won would again be £5.00

As you can see from my settled bet slip This horse also won at 11/4 (3.75) and while the odds didn’t reach those of the advised price by a long chalk they did drift slightly from the 3.50 giving me a profit of £5.50

My Total profit from these four bets ended up at £11.11 from a total of £4.39 staked! Better than being poked in the eye with a sharp stick I think.

I know that if I had used another bookmaker that offered BOG then I would have had guaranteed odds and could have taken the price offered without fear of the odds dipping some more. As it is if I had taken the prices offered by SkyBet at the time of striking the bets then my profit would have been £8.61 – £2.50 less than my actual profit.
If you had used the same staking method AND had been able to get the ADVISED prices then the profit would have been as follows

Sea of Thieves Advised odds 15.00
Stake 36p
Lost P/L -36p
Billy Webster Advised odds 11.00
Stake 50p
Lost P/L -50p
Relentless Voyager Advised odds 7.5
Stake 77p
Won P/L £5.01
Wild Waves Advised odds 5.5
stake £1.11
Won P/L 4.99

Total P/L £9.14