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Tag Archives: Back to lay
Making an Exchange Lay Bet and calculating your liability to use in your “Back to Lay” Trade
Making an exchange lay bet is not as simple as calculating your porential profit in a normal back bet. With a back bet you simply multiply your stake with the odds, subtract your stake and hey presto the figure left is your potential profit.
The lay bet calculation is a little bit more involved and has nothing to do with the picture above (That is just the Kelly Criteria equation for anyone who wants to look it up)
To calculate your liability (How much you would lose if the bet “won” remember with a lay bet you are betting your selection will lose) the following equation is used
Liability = (Backers stake x (Lay odds – 1)
For instance in the 15:05 at Ascot yesterday (1st Oct 2021) Chalk Stream was 3.6 to lay. You don’t think as others do and think it has no chance and want to win a tenner if it loses so you need to know how much you would lose if it wins
Liability = (£10.00 x (3.6 – 1) = 10 x 2.6 = £26.00
To win your £10.00 you stand to lose £26.00 if Chalk Stream wins.
This is the basic calculation and you would need to take off your commission from any winnings.
For instance if your Betfair commission rate is 5% then your £10.00 profit would be subject to a 5% reduction equalling 50p leaving you with a total profit of £9.50 if Chalk Stream loses and a £26.00 loss if it wins.
To make this lay bet you would need at least £26.00 in your betfair account. Things get really interesting when you need to calculate your liability when making Back to lay bets.
Lets take todays first Back to Lay selection on the In-Running Trading Tool feature.
Highfield Princess is running in the 13:30 at Ascot total (2nd Oct 2021) and is currently at 4.3 to win so we back her at that price for £10.00 – a simple no-nonsense back bet, we lose a tenner if it loses and win £33.00 if it wins.
I personally lay my “back to lay” selections at a set 15 tick “drop” from whatever price I backed. For this I use my own “Betfair tick counter” in the form of an excel spreadsheet which I made myself and is available free to download at the end of this page.
A 15 tick drop from 4.3 is 3.4 so now I need to calculate an equal profit liability lay order at odds of 3.4 so that if the horse trades in-play at odds of 3.4 I will win whatever the outcome.
To do this I simply use one of the many “Matched Bet” Calculators on the web, my favourite being Odds monkeys free bet calculator as shown below
As you can see from the screen shot above if the odds in-play reach our 15 tick drop we would win at least £1.72 even if the horse loses.
As promised above my betfair tick counter is available for free download by clicking the link below. It will calculate odds required for a 20 and 30 tick drop as well as my default 15 tick drop by simply inserting the back odds into the relevant cell
The example shown on this page wasn’t plucked out of thin air. I subscibe to a website called In-Running Trading Tool which provides daily data on various trading strategies ranging from Back to Lay trading to “DOBBING” or Double or Bust trading on every horse running that day. Highland Princess is just one of several selections highlighted by the site for todays racing. I am currently on a 5 bet winning streak and playing with free money after taking my original stake out after the 3rd bet. These trades were as follows
28th Sept – 13:35 Ayr – Le Cheval Rapide – Trade won Horse lost
29th Sept – 13:40 Bangor-on-Dee – Robin Des Theatre – Trade won Horse lost
30th Sept – 14:00 Warwick – Friend or Foe – Trade won Horse lost
01st Oct – 13:35 Fontwell – Pasvolsky – Trade won Horse lost
01st Oct – 14:45 Fontwell – Keepyourdreamsbig – Trade won Horse lost
A full breakdown of these backed and liad bets can be seen from my downloaded excel file below
I used the minimum stake of £2.00 for the initial bet adding my profit to this each time until I had won enough to bet with just profits.
To get a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
Fridays “Back to Lay” Selection for the second race at Fontwell
End of the working week for me and an empty house means a fun filled afternoon with the horses. First on my list today is Pasvolsky in the 13:35 at Fontwell. This is a slightly longer race today that he is used to running but watching previous races he has been a front runner. I have backed him at 5.3 with, like yesterday, original stake plus profits which amount’s to £3.79 a 15 tick drop lay order has been made for £5.18 at odds of 3.9.
With just an hour to go the odds have come into 4.8 giving me a 5 tick head start.
With the exception of his last run at Sandown on 24 April with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle Pasvolsky has Won or Placed under Tom Cannon on good or good to soft going over hurdles and won one and placed in his other NHF race.
Now at 4.7 (12:50pm) things could go well in this race.
The “In-Running Trading Tool” form table is below and clearly shows his front running form and particular notice should be taken of his in-play exchange prices
His short in run returns are in red figures and this marrys with his fading off in the races in which he placed or lost.
For this and other in play strategies a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool is available by clicking the link Below
In Running Trading Tool “Back to Lay” with Top Tipped Horses – A Quick Summary
Saturday saw the start of a system that has shown promise, where frustration reigned in regards to well-tipped, short-priced favourites not producing winning performances. When I say Saturday I really mean that I had a 20-20 hindsight day for Friday where I had the fortune of being able to see the results as I mashed the criteria.
As you would expect, I got a 100% win rate – who wouldn’t.
The two horses concerned were Love is Golden and Jumbly
Jumbly won its race but Love is Golden definitely did not but both were low “in-play traders” making it possible to create a small profit from both runners instead of a level stake loss!
Applying the same criteria to Saturdays Top Tipped Horses I got 3 horses
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock
Loves Me Likearock won its race but the other 2 failed – miserably!
However, all three managed at least a 15 tick in play drop from their B.S.P. making the tally so far 5 out of 5 with three of the top tipped selections losing their race
Happy days so far then
Sunday gave up just 2 selections
14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips)
14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)
Minella Trump won and a B.S.P. of 1.72 soon passed the 15 tick mark after climbing to an in-play high of 2.34 the half length that it won by might have had me twitching a bit if I had been watching but a win is a win. Bigbadmattie on the other hand, despite being quite heavily tipped was not favourite and went off at a B.S.P. of 3.4 and according to Timeform traded in-play at a low of 3.2. this is just 4 ticks. However! I actually backed and laid this race and horse and my lay bet of 2.8 was matched during the race
I am going to take this as a winner for the system – It would/might have not been totally matched if the bet was more than a tenner
7 from 7 for me and only 3 from 7 as regards to outright winners from the experts.
On to today and there is just one selection that meets the criteria
14:10 Newton Abbott; Kilmington Rose
A race of just 3 runners and I have just backed it at 1.64! This will have to trade as low as 1.49 for a 15 tick drop
Please take a look at my other posts regarding this system if you want to learn more and a 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by Clicking the link below
Update 100% win rate
Yesterdays Blog post “Using the In-Running Trading Tool with the Racing Press Top Tipped Horses to determine “Back to Lay” selections” gave, in some detail the workings behind narrowing down the back to lay dilemma.
Fridays selections produced a 100% success rate. So how did yesterdays selections fair
Just to remind you these were
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock
Alotaibi was forecast at an S.P. of 1.33 and you would be excused from thinking that with 10 tips from the National Racing Press “Experts” that this is surely one of those banker moments – Alas it was not to be as Wanees came home in front! However Alotaibi did have a B.S.P. of 1.85 which was 13 ticks more than the industry S.P. and reached an in-play Low of 1.4! This was in fact a 45 tick drop – more than enough to meet our requirements of 1.7 for 15 ticks and a small profit
Valley Forge with 11 tips and a NAP pushing it along and an attractive forecast S.P. of 3.00 (2/1) many a punter would think that it is “money back time” This was not to be unfortunately as Valley Forge managed just 3rd out of a field of 6. But as it turned out all was not lost as the B.S.P. was 2.51 and his in-play low dipped to 2.00 giving a tick drop of 25. This gave an in running profit of 12.8%
With 2 out of 2 losers as far as the straight punters were concerned, I on the other hand have an overall profit of 10% on my stakes.
The evening meeting at Wolverhampton and my last selection in this system was most tipped horse with 12 tips, Loves Me Likearock. Winning by just half a length very nearly made it 3 disasters for the favourite backers. Going off at 2.07 at the Betfair exchange traded to the lowest possible at 1.01 and another win for the system and finishing up 10% up on my stakes
There are just 2 selections today (5th Sept)
14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips)
14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)
The screenshot above shows the form and other stats for the two horses
To get a free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
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Using the In-Running Trading Tool with the Racing Press Top Tipped Horses to determine “Back to Lay” selections
In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool”
The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings.
I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters
DOB % >= 50%
Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75%
Win % >= 20%
These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site.
This gave me this screen
The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were
15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden
15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt
15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame
16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord
17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel
18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings
18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark
18:45 Kempton; Altraif
19:15 Kempton; Jumbly
19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express
Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list
Love is Golden amd Jumbly
Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board.
By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:
We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality.
In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded
The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5
A successful Trade!
Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark
Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam.
With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths
You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet
Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!
To get a free 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool click the banner below. Please like this post if you want more posts in the same vein.
To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.
There are 3 horses meeting the criteria today (4th Sept)
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock
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In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections (Monday 23rd Aug 2021)
Using the same criteria even though one runner yesterday went out of scope on the B.S.P. there are two probable selections for today
Just to remind you of the criteria
1. Settings as Default
2. Open the ShortInRunning tab
3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.
4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate
4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.
5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5
The first is Café Sydney in the 15:15 at Brighton. With a win rate percentage of 16.67 and a forecasted B.S.P. of 13.00 Mollie Phillips has piloted this horse to a 65 tick drop at Leicester last time out and a massive 193 tick drop at its last time running here at Brighton. I think that it is worth mentioning the “Race style” column on the spreadsheet. This is represented by the numbers 1-4 with 1 being a front runner and 4 liking the veiw of the other horses arses! The average race style of Cafe Sydney is 3 but in its last 7 Runnings 3 of which it won, albeit on the all weather, the actual race style was 4 and only once did it not meet the 15 tick drop threshold and that was at Windsor on soft ground. This suggests that it likes other horses to make the running and then break from behind but doesn’t like soft going. With the going at Brighton this afternoon being good, hopes are high for this one.
The second selection on the list is Ballon Onabudget (who thinks these names up?) which has a forecasted B.S.P. of just 3.50 and looking at the betting markets is currently 3rd fav at 4.5 at SkyBet. A winrate % of 20.05% and running over 2 miles today instead of its usual 3ish miles (its last 9 outings have been between 2m6f and 3m2f. Its average race style is actually 3 but the last twice it ran over todays distance it was 2 hinting that at the shorter distance it likes to be in touch with the leader in the hopes of making that final break for it near the end. With only 5 runners in the race today I think that on previous form and with Johnathan Burke on board we may have a 1-2 clean up today lets face it I need it after yesterday.
As I have done previously I have provided the spreadsheet detailing these two runners form, race styles and starting odds etc. for download by clicking the link below
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
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