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Tag Archives: Betfair Exchange
Bet or Not on the Timeform 5 star rated horses?
Timeform has been around for decades now, founded in 1948 in Halifax it was bought by Betfair in 2006.
A feature of betfair exchange racing markets is that at the bottom of each race there is the “Timeform 1-2-3” which lists the top 3 rated horses according to Timeform in the race and gives them a star rating from 5 stars to 1 star.
Timeform ratings form a universal handicap embracing all horses in training, in which the ratings range on the Flat from 130 and upwards for the very best horses down to around 20 for the poorest horses.
This is a 1 day study into the success or failure of Timeform’s 5 star rated horses as shown by Betfair Exchange
The horses in question are as follows Starting with Ascot
Ascot
Race 1 Highfield Princess
Race 2 Dakota Gold
Race 3 Hukum
Race 4 Great Ambassador
Race 5 River Nymph
Race 6 Boundless Power
Chester
Race 1 Larado
Race 2 Major Jumbo
Race 3 Designer
Race 4 Flying West
Race 6 Gaassee
Race 7 Overhaugh Street
Race 8 Life on the Rocks
Fontwell
Race 1 Nickle Back
Race 2 King Cool
Race 3 Helford River
Race 4 Maasai Warrior
Race 5 West To The Bridge
Race 6 Itacare
Race 7 Reinator
Newmarket (Rowley)
Race 1 Al Nafir
Race 2 State Occasion
Race 3 Fearby
Race 4 Snow Lantern
Race 5 Filistine
Race 6 Sammarr
Race 7 Flame of Freedom
Redcar
Race 1 Reel Rosie
Race 2 Australian Harbour
Race 3 Norman Kindu
Race 4 Vintage Clarets
Race 5 Motakhayyel
Race 6 Give It Some Teddy
Race 7 Savalas
Wolverhampton
Race 1 Hurry Up Hedley
Race 2 Rock Melody
Race 3 Top Table
Race 4 Touchwood
Race 5 Nelson Gay
Race 6 Hooflepuff
Race 7 Tyche
Race 8 Meadram
43 horses all with 5 star ratings from Timeform, how will the bookies ever survive this 😏
I have not only done this for Saturdays racing but I have produced a spreadsheet which includes all of Sunday and Mondays results
The total Profit for all 3 days to a £1.00 level stake on betfair exchange is £79.01 using B.S.P. and £32.20 using I.S.P at the bookies.
I have made the spreadsheet available to download below and pre loaded Tuesdays Timeform 5 star selections
Making an Exchange Lay Bet and calculating your liability to use in your “Back to Lay” Trade
Making an exchange lay bet is not as simple as calculating your porential profit in a normal back bet. With a back bet you simply multiply your stake with the odds, subtract your stake and hey presto the figure left is your potential profit.
The lay bet calculation is a little bit more involved and has nothing to do with the picture above (That is just the Kelly Criteria equation for anyone who wants to look it up)
To calculate your liability (How much you would lose if the bet “won” remember with a lay bet you are betting your selection will lose) the following equation is used
Liability = (Backers stake x (Lay odds – 1)
For instance in the 15:05 at Ascot yesterday (1st Oct 2021) Chalk Stream was 3.6 to lay. You don’t think as others do and think it has no chance and want to win a tenner if it loses so you need to know how much you would lose if it wins
Liability = (£10.00 x (3.6 – 1) = 10 x 2.6 = £26.00
To win your £10.00 you stand to lose £26.00 if Chalk Stream wins.
This is the basic calculation and you would need to take off your commission from any winnings.
For instance if your Betfair commission rate is 5% then your £10.00 profit would be subject to a 5% reduction equalling 50p leaving you with a total profit of £9.50 if Chalk Stream loses and a £26.00 loss if it wins.
To make this lay bet you would need at least £26.00 in your betfair account. Things get really interesting when you need to calculate your liability when making Back to lay bets.
Lets take todays first Back to Lay selection on the In-Running Trading Tool feature.
Highfield Princess is running in the 13:30 at Ascot total (2nd Oct 2021) and is currently at 4.3 to win so we back her at that price for £10.00 – a simple no-nonsense back bet, we lose a tenner if it loses and win £33.00 if it wins.
I personally lay my “back to lay” selections at a set 15 tick “drop” from whatever price I backed. For this I use my own “Betfair tick counter” in the form of an excel spreadsheet which I made myself and is available free to download at the end of this page.
A 15 tick drop from 4.3 is 3.4 so now I need to calculate an equal profit liability lay order at odds of 3.4 so that if the horse trades in-play at odds of 3.4 I will win whatever the outcome.
To do this I simply use one of the many “Matched Bet” Calculators on the web, my favourite being Odds monkeys free bet calculator as shown below
As you can see from the screen shot above if the odds in-play reach our 15 tick drop we would win at least £1.72 even if the horse loses.
As promised above my betfair tick counter is available for free download by clicking the link below. It will calculate odds required for a 20 and 30 tick drop as well as my default 15 tick drop by simply inserting the back odds into the relevant cell
The example shown on this page wasn’t plucked out of thin air. I subscibe to a website called In-Running Trading Tool which provides daily data on various trading strategies ranging from Back to Lay trading to “DOBBING” or Double or Bust trading on every horse running that day. Highland Princess is just one of several selections highlighted by the site for todays racing. I am currently on a 5 bet winning streak and playing with free money after taking my original stake out after the 3rd bet. These trades were as follows
28th Sept – 13:35 Ayr – Le Cheval Rapide – Trade won Horse lost
29th Sept – 13:40 Bangor-on-Dee – Robin Des Theatre – Trade won Horse lost
30th Sept – 14:00 Warwick – Friend or Foe – Trade won Horse lost
01st Oct – 13:35 Fontwell – Pasvolsky – Trade won Horse lost
01st Oct – 14:45 Fontwell – Keepyourdreamsbig – Trade won Horse lost
A full breakdown of these backed and liad bets can be seen from my downloaded excel file below
I used the minimum stake of £2.00 for the initial bet adding my profit to this each time until I had won enough to bet with just profits.
To get a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
Back to Lay Bet 2 Friday 14:45 Fontwell
Back to Fontwell again today for bet No 2 and I have discarded my original stake of £2.00 placing the total profit so far of £3.15 at odds of 3.05. This will make my Lay order of a 15 tick drop at 2.72 for a stake of £3.56
Having an average tick drop of 166 the highest in-play low price was 1.2 when it ran at Uttoxeter in Jul this year and winning at Worcester 30 days ago
As with all of these Back to Lay selections this has been picked using the back to lay feature of the In-Running Trading Tool of which a free trial can be obtained by clicking the link below
Fridays “Back to Lay” Selection for the second race at Fontwell
End of the working week for me and an empty house means a fun filled afternoon with the horses. First on my list today is Pasvolsky in the 13:35 at Fontwell. This is a slightly longer race today that he is used to running but watching previous races he has been a front runner. I have backed him at 5.3 with, like yesterday, original stake plus profits which amount’s to £3.79 a 15 tick drop lay order has been made for £5.18 at odds of 3.9.
With just an hour to go the odds have come into 4.8 giving me a 5 tick head start.
With the exception of his last run at Sandown on 24 April with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle Pasvolsky has Won or Placed under Tom Cannon on good or good to soft going over hurdles and won one and placed in his other NHF race.
Now at 4.7 (12:50pm) things could go well in this race.
The “In-Running Trading Tool” form table is below and clearly shows his front running form and particular notice should be taken of his in-play exchange prices
His short in run returns are in red figures and this marrys with his fading off in the races in which he placed or lost.
For this and other in play strategies a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool is available by clicking the link Below
Todays “Back to Lay” Bet 1 Thursday
The first Back to Lay selection today is Friend or Foe running in the 14:00 at Warwick. I have backed it at for £3.38 (my origional stake plus profit from yesterday) at odds of 2.92 as the odds were falling but it seems I was a bit premature as the market has drifted out a bit to 3.05 as I write this. My lay order of £3.80 at a 15 tick drop to 2.62 probably wont get matched before the off but I am hopeful that the traders will help me out as the race gets under way. Having just watched his debut into chase racing on the 1st May this year , he was content to sit at second until about the 3rd from home where Briony Frost let him have his head and motored to victory, winning by nearly 5 lengths. His last outing as a hurdler was on heavy ground at Wincanton and he didn’t fare too well finishing 4th out of 5 finishers in the Betway Kingwell Hurdle on the 20th February 70 days previous . Making heavy work out of the heavy going it is plain that the going today at Warwick should suit him as the distance of 2m and good going seem to agree with him. Harry Cobden rides him today instead of Briony Frost but has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 rides. His other ride on Friend or Foe was on the 23 march 2019 where he came 10th over a bigger distance of 2m3f. At the 2 mile point he was just disputing the lead but faded badly after 2nd from home fortifying the desision to run him at 2m or there about to optimise his talent.
With 1 hour to go before the off the market on Friend or Foe is static at about 3.05-3.10
For more Back to lay selections and other in running trading opportunities a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by clicking the link below.
Todays Best Back to Lay bet of the Day
Not much time to get onto this as todays Back to Lay bet runs at 13:40 at Bangor on Dee.
Robin Des Theatre has a 25% win rate from 4 races on at 1m7f and 3 at 2m. This horse likes to lead from the front and has an average betfair tick drop of 106. Its highest BSP was 11.5 and dropped a total of 22 ticks to a in-play low of 6.2. This was its last time out at Newcastle over 2 miles on 20 march this year. Todays jockey, Brendan Powell rode it to victory in another Newcastle hurdle over 2 miles 21 days previous to that. Todays race is a 2m 1f Handicap Chase, a first for this horse but the market seems confident in the final 2 hours to post time as I backed it at odds of 16.00 and I am looking for a 15 tick drop to 9.4 to lay. With just 50 minutes to post time the market has shortened to 11.5.
The screenshot above shows the steady shift downwards and how close to my Lay order the odds got as it dipped to below 10.0 about an hour before the off.
This selection was made with the help of the In-Running Trading Tool which a free trial can be obtained by clicking the link below
DOB of the Day (Sunday 12 Sept)
Welcome to todays DOB of the Day Post where, unfortunately there is only 1 selection that meets the criteria laid down for this. La Petite Coco is running in the 14:20 at the Curragh this afternoon and whilst it would be the Ideal contender for today It has 2 horses in front of it in the betting who are both front runners and the markets probably wouldnt be able to sustain 3 selections shortening so much.
Timeform pace hints favour Love and Thundering Nights the two horses in question. I am going to give this one a miss today which after my luck yesterday with the Betfair “Outage” the damned thing will probably go on to win 🙄
There are some higher priced horses in other races which I am going to set betangel in practice mode to automate the process
I have created this automation rule to the exact instructions of the betangel maestro, Peter Webb, and I am running BetAngel in practice mode.
To get a free 14 day trial of the Betangel software by clicking the link below
Betangel Software free 14 day trial
The selections I have loaded into betangel are the top DOB possibilities as sorted by the In-Running Trading Tool
If you enlarge the sceenshot above you will see why onlt La Petite Coco was the only one to meet MY criteria, Heavenly Power, Point Lonsdale, and Barrington Court are out side of the odds scope While Fast Response and Turbulance have a “red” short in running total.
This is a “blind” trial as I have simply loaded the selections into betangel with instructions to back the horse 5 seconds before post time at current odds and put a corresponding DOB lay order in the market with instructions to keep when event goes in-play.
I have also instructed BetAngel to record the lowest in-play traded price for the selection.
I have done no other research apart from the initial findings as outlined about La Petite Coco.
To get a Free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
DOB of the Day – Thursday (9 sept)
Yesterday was another successful trade with Anmaat winning makes that £10.00 profit less a bit of commission. Today there were 2 possibles but Kawida in the 14:40 at Doncaster is now a non runner, leaving Free Wind in the race after at 15:15
To remind you of the criteria
- DOB rate of over 85% average for all races
- Short in running figure zero or greater
- A “DOB return” of over £25.00
- Forecast odds between 3.0 and 20
- A “Runstyle” of 1 or 2
Todays selection meets all of these conditions. Early this morning I backed it on the exchange at odds of 3.85 and subsequently put my lay bet order in as soon as the back bet was matched. (I should point out at this stage that there was a significant gap between the back odds and the lay odds (3.4 to back and 3.9 to lay) so I simply asked for a £5.00 back bet at 3.85 this was matched quite quickly so it is well worth NOT taking the back odds as is, and trying for a bit more. By doing this I have gained 9 ticks, not much I know but every little helps.
At some point in the morning Glenartny was withdrawn at odds of about 15.00 so the rule 4 was invoked and now my back odds are 3.6 and Betfair has automatically adjusted my lay bet so no harm done. All that been said there are a couple of points to fortify the decision to Dob this horse.
In its previous race (which is not shown in the In-Running Trading Tool) Free Wind was ridden by Frankie Dettori in Deauville to victory over a mile and a half in August beating the favourite by 1 and a half lengths showing that there is a horse/jockey connection to todays race as Dettori hadn’t ridden Free Wind before.
To get a free 7 day trial of the In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below.
DOB of The Day Wednesday
After yesterday’s success with Past Time, I am £5.00 in profit after backing her at 4.4 and she traded at 1.77, 33 ticks below the required 2.2, we move onto today’s DOB of the Day.
Running at Doncaster in the 16:30, Anmaat has forecast odds of 4.00 and a DOB percentage of 100%. £49.00 reflects the 5/5 times he has run and “DOBBED”
With an average racestyle of 1 he prefers to lead or just tuck in behind the leader and after looking at his previous runs seems to make his move 2f out and giving all in the final furlong. One concern would have been if the going was good to soft as a previous race was lost seemingly due to the ground not being exactly to his liking and tiring him 100 yds from the finish allowing Encourage to win by 3/4 length. that being said an in play low price of 1.33 suggests the work was done inside the 2nd furlong from home.
I actually backed him at 5 o’clock this morning at odds of 5.7 so my exit price is 2.86
This price is still available
There is more information today and I am grateful for the additional resources provided by #caanberry and #timeform which is ever-present on one or more of my computer screens
There is one other possible DOB candidate but it fails on the short in- running condition. This is Al Simmo in the race after Anmaar’s at 5 o’clock full details and a free 7 day trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be had by clicking the link below
Betornot 