Betfair Exchange – Page 8

Templegates July NAPs Record

In a previous post I quoted that Templegates £1.00 Level stake profit/loss for July was -£5.62 with one Nap left to run. This figure was in fact incorrect, his actual P/L to £1.00 level stakes for July was -£11.10. The figure I quoted was for a 10% staking plan (Staking 10% of a starting bank of £10.00 and adding any profit and loss to the bank and recalculating the stake for the next day). This figure was when all NAPs were run came out as a £5.87 Loss.
If you had Layed all of his NAPs at the exchange at BSP (Betfair Starting Price) to the minimum £2.00 stake required by Betfair then your actual profit would have been £19.12 when all commissions had been paid (In my case it is 2% but the normal commission rate is 5% which would have resulted in a profit of £17.68)
Again I must correct myself as to an error in the previous post stating that the profit when laying his NAPs was £27.16 with just one to go. This is because I did all of my calculations starting with a bank of £10.00 and forgot to subtract this at the end of the month. apologies for giving you an adrenalin rush in the sheer magnitude of this profit figure 😆
I have posted the excel spreadsheet below for download if anyone is interested in this
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The next Tipster under the Microscope will be Sporting Life who also has a overall profit in the NAPs table but how well did they do in July alone and would it be worth looking at Laying these NAPs as Well

templegates-nap-record-july-2021 Download

Laying Horses for a profit?

I am sure that the majority of people reading this post will know what laying a horse – or any sporting event is, but there are still people who, through no fault of their own, have yet to discover the minefields of the exchanges. Without going into too much blurb, a betting exchange is where you can be a bookie or a punter. Being a bookie involves you betting that a horse, greyhound, footballer, politician or just about anything else will not win. This is called “laying” the horse, greyhound, footballer, politician or just about anything else. So far So Good. This must be easy to win with, after all who has ever heard of a poor bookmaker! While I was compiling the daily NAPs stats for another post it suddenly struck me as to the amount of losing streaks these tipsters have and how we as punters, constantly looking for ways of beating the bookie, but why shouldn’t we be the bookie. I have, up to the time of writing this blog, only analyzed the overall leading tipster in the NAPs table, this being Templegate from the Sun newspaper and at £1.00 level stakes for the month of July, and with today’s NAP yet to run he is at a loss of £5.42. If we had laid his selections at BSP (Betfair Starting Price) we would be in profit to a tune of £27.16!! We do have to take into consideration, however, that the minimum bet on Betfair is £2.00 and in my case, a 2% commission is taken from the winnings. Having only 7 winners in July so far and 1 NAP left to run we are guaranteed a profit unless Hurricane Ivor goes off at 15.0 and wins!!! His biggest-priced winner was Guru at Ascot on the 24th at 5.5 and cost us £9.10. His biggest priced selection was Chookie Dunedin on the 5th July which started at a BSP of 11.37 and would have been a £20.74 loss should it have won.
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The initial Bet-Or-Not verdict on this one is I will be reserving a £20.00 bank on my Betfair Account to live test this in september when I have looked into which Tipster is most likely to not win 😁

Trading a Tennis Match

With the Madrid open starting this weekend I watched a couple of YouTube videos on trading tennis and was astonished to learn that Betfairs’ tennis markets regularly trade in 5 or 6 figure turnovers. One of the contributing factors of this is the fact that because the game can swing dramatically from one player to the other the odds swing with the markets can move considerately. For instance a lay bet of £20.00 on the favourite who’s odds are perhaps 1.35 at the start of the set will only have a liability of £7.00. If the other player then serves first and wins the first game then the odds of the favourite could well swing up to 1.5 and a back bet of £18.00 at those odds would see you making a profit of around £2.00 – a better than 25% return on your investment. If on the other hand the game goes the other way and the favourite wins the first game then the odds might swing down to perhaps 1.25. A back bet of £17.00 at 1.25 would only leave you with a loss of £2.95 if the favourite went on to win but a £2.94 profit if he/she was to go on to lose.
With this in mind I placed a lay bet of £20.00 this morning on Aslan Karatsev at odds of 1.36 giving me a liability of £7.20.

With an hour to go before the first serve I can already trade out for 14p

20 minutes later the odds have reverted back to 1.36 and £20,000 more have been matched. I feel that I have perhaps jumped into this too soon as I dont know who will serve first So will cash out for no loss or profit and wait until they come out on court.

I have to admit to knowing absolutley nothing about tennis and even less about these two players but just some prelimianary research shows that Ugo Humbert is ranked 32nd in the ATP singles rankings and Aslan Karatsev 27th. The void in-between these two players odds, considering their closeness in the rankings suggests that Karatsev is on fire at the present time and a look at his form shows that he won 3 of his last 4 games in Belgrade kncking out Djokovic 2 sets to one.
The match is now underway and Humbert served first winning the first game to 15 giving me a cashout of about 90p