Todays DOB of the day is Dragon Symbol running in the 14:00 at the Ascot meeting. Preferring to lead the race and with the advantage of Oisin Murphy on board today. Murphy has failed to win on Dragon Symbol from the past 5 rides last winning at Kempton on the All-Weather back in April. While the All Weather surface seems to suit Dragon Symbol better he has won or placed in all but 1 of his 10 previous races in a varied going conditions. The racing Press have Napped him twice and has is tipped by 2 others.
Dragon Symbols Form as laid out by The In-Running Trading Tool. Click Image to enlarge in a new tab
Dragon Symbol is currently available to Back at 9.6 on the exchange at Betfair which you would lay off at odds of 4.8 in running (dont forget to click the “Keep” button when laying the bet.) Forecast odds for Dragon Symbol range about the 5.5 mark (9/2) This is the best DOB selection of the day using my own criteria on the In-Running Trading Tool. To get your free trial of this very worthwhile trading software please click the link below
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Making an exchange lay bet is not as simple as calculating your porential profit in a normal back bet. With a back bet you simply multiply your stake with the odds, subtract your stake and hey presto the figure left is your potential profit. The lay bet calculation is a little bit more involved and has nothing to do with the picture above (That is just the Kelly Criteria equation for anyone who wants to look it up) To calculate your liability (How much you would lose if the bet “won” remember with a lay bet you are betting your selection will lose) the following equation is used
Liability = (Backers stake x (Lay odds – 1)
For instance in the 15:05 at Ascot yesterday (1st Oct 2021) Chalk Stream was 3.6 to lay. You don’t think as others do and think it has no chance and want to win a tenner if it loses so you need to know how much you would lose if it wins
Liability = (£10.00 x (3.6 – 1) = 10 x 2.6 = £26.00
To win your £10.00 you stand to lose £26.00 if Chalk Stream wins. This is the basic calculation and you would need to take off your commission from any winnings. For instance if your Betfair commission rate is 5% then your £10.00 profit would be subject to a 5% reduction equalling 50p leaving you with a total profit of £9.50 if Chalk Stream loses and a £26.00 loss if it wins.
To make this lay bet you would need at least £26.00 in your betfair account. Things get really interesting when you need to calculate your liability when making Back to lay bets. Lets take todays first Back to Lay selection on the In-Running Trading Tool feature.
Highfield Princess is running in the 13:30 at Ascot total (2nd Oct 2021) and is currently at 4.3 to win so we back her at that price for £10.00 – a simple no-nonsense back bet, we lose a tenner if it loses and win £33.00 if it wins. I personally lay my “back to lay” selections at a set 15 tick “drop” from whatever price I backed. For this I use my own “Betfair tick counter” in the form of an excel spreadsheet which I made myself and is available free to download at the end of this page. A 15 tick drop from 4.3 is 3.4 so now I need to calculate an equal profit liability lay order at odds of 3.4 so that if the horse trades in-play at odds of 3.4 I will win whatever the outcome.
To do this I simply use one of the many “Matched Bet” Calculators on the web, my favourite being Odds monkeys free bet calculator as shown below
Click the pic to go to the Oddsmonkey website
As you can see from the screen shot above if the odds in-play reach our 15 tick drop we would win at least £1.72 even if the horse loses. As promised above my betfair tick counter is available for free download by clicking the link below. It will calculate odds required for a 20 and 30 tick drop as well as my default 15 tick drop by simply inserting the back odds into the relevant cell
The example shown on this page wasn’t plucked out of thin air. I subscibe to a website called In-Running Trading Tool which provides daily data on various trading strategies ranging from Back to Lay trading to “DOBBING” or Double or Bust trading on every horse running that day. Highland Princess is just one of several selections highlighted by the site for todays racing. I am currently on a 5 bet winning streak and playing with free money after taking my original stake out after the 3rd bet. These trades were as follows 28th Sept – 13:35 Ayr – Le Cheval Rapide – Trade won Horse lost 29th Sept – 13:40 Bangor-on-Dee – Robin Des Theatre – Trade won Horse lost 30th Sept – 14:00 Warwick – Friend or Foe – Trade won Horse lost 01st Oct – 13:35 Fontwell – Pasvolsky – Trade won Horse lost 01st Oct – 14:45 Fontwell – Keepyourdreamsbig – Trade won Horse lost A full breakdown of these backed and liad bets can be seen from my downloaded excel file below I used the minimum stake of £2.00 for the initial bet adding my profit to this each time until I had won enough to bet with just profits.
Back to Fontwell again today for bet No 2 and I have discarded my original stake of £2.00 placing the total profit so far of £3.15 at odds of 3.05. This will make my Lay order of a 15 tick drop at 2.72 for a stake of £3.56 Having an average tick drop of 166 the highest in-play low price was 1.2 when it ran at Uttoxeter in Jul this year and winning at Worcester 30 days ago
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As with all of these Back to Lay selections this has been picked using the back to lay feature of the In-Running Trading Tool of which a free trial can be obtained by clicking the link below
End of the working week for me and an empty house means a fun filled afternoon with the horses. First on my list today is Pasvolsky in the 13:35 at Fontwell. This is a slightly longer race today that he is used to running but watching previous races he has been a front runner. I have backed him at 5.3 with, like yesterday, original stake plus profits which amount’s to £3.79 a 15 tick drop lay order has been made for £5.18 at odds of 3.9. With just an hour to go the odds have come into 4.8 giving me a 5 tick head start. With the exception of his last run at Sandown on 24 April with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle Pasvolsky has Won or Placed under Tom Cannon on good or good to soft going over hurdles and won one and placed in his other NHF race. Now at 4.7 (12:50pm) things could go well in this race. The “In-Running Trading Tool” form table is below and clearly shows his front running form and particular notice should be taken of his in-play exchange prices
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His short in run returns are in red figures and this marrys with his fading off in the races in which he placed or lost. For this and other in play strategies a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool is available by clicking the link Below
The first Back to Lay selection today is Friend or Foe running in the 14:00 at Warwick. I have backed it at for £3.38 (my origional stake plus profit from yesterday) at odds of 2.92 as the odds were falling but it seems I was a bit premature as the market has drifted out a bit to 3.05 as I write this. My lay order of £3.80 at a 15 tick drop to 2.62 probably wont get matched before the off but I am hopeful that the traders will help me out as the race gets under way. Having just watched his debut into chase racing on the 1st May this year , he was content to sit at second until about the 3rd from home where Briony Frost let him have his head and motored to victory, winning by nearly 5 lengths. His last outing as a hurdler was on heavy ground at Wincanton and he didn’t fare too well finishing 4th out of 5 finishers in the Betway Kingwell Hurdle on the 20th February 70 days previous . Making heavy work out of the heavy going it is plain that the going today at Warwick should suit him as the distance of 2m and good going seem to agree with him. Harry Cobden rides him today instead of Briony Frost but has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 rides. His other ride on Friend or Foe was on the 23 march 2019 where he came 10th over a bigger distance of 2m3f. At the 2 mile point he was just disputing the lead but faded badly after 2nd from home fortifying the desision to run him at 2m or there about to optimise his talent. With 1 hour to go before the off the market on Friend or Foe is static at about 3.05-3.10 For more Back to lay selections and other in running trading opportunities a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by clicking the link below.
Not much time to get onto this as todays Back to Lay bet runs at 13:40 at Bangor on Dee. Robin Des Theatre has a 25% win rate from 4 races on at 1m7f and 3 at 2m. This horse likes to lead from the front and has an average betfair tick drop of 106. Its highest BSP was 11.5 and dropped a total of 22 ticks to a in-play low of 6.2. This was its last time out at Newcastle over 2 miles on 20 march this year. Todays jockey, Brendan Powell rode it to victory in another Newcastle hurdle over 2 miles 21 days previous to that. Todays race is a 2m 1f Handicap Chase, a first for this horse but the market seems confident in the final 2 hours to post time as I backed it at odds of 16.00 and I am looking for a 15 tick drop to 9.4 to lay. With just 50 minutes to post time the market has shortened to 11.5.
Robin Des Theatre Market Graph
The screenshot above shows the steady shift downwards and how close to my Lay order the odds got as it dipped to below 10.0 about an hour before the off.
This selection was made with the help of the In-Running Trading Tool which a free trial can be obtained by clicking the link below
