Tag Archives: Double or Bust

ITV7 Monday

I just picked my seven winners for @itv7. Don’t miss your free chance to win the jackpot #ITV7 https://itv7.itv.com/play

Through the card at Kempton tonight 👍👍👍

DOB of The Day Wednesday

After yesterday’s success with Past Time, I am £5.00 in profit after backing her at 4.4 and she traded at 1.77, 33 ticks below the required 2.2, we move onto today’s DOB of the Day.
Running at Doncaster in the 16:30, Anmaat has forecast odds of 4.00 and a DOB percentage of 100%. £49.00 reflects the 5/5 times he has run and “DOBBED”
With an average racestyle of 1 he prefers to lead or just tuck in behind the leader and after looking at his previous runs seems to make his move 2f out and giving all in the final furlong. One concern would have been if the going was good to soft as a previous race was lost seemingly due to the ground not being exactly to his liking and tiring him 100 yds from the finish allowing Encourage to win by 3/4 length. that being said an in play low price of 1.33 suggests the work was done inside the 2nd furlong from home.
I actually backed him at 5 o’clock this morning at odds of 5.7 so my exit price is 2.86
This price is still available
There is more information today and I am grateful for the additional resources provided by #caanberry and #timeform which is ever-present on one or more of my computer screens
There is one other possible DOB candidate but it fails on the short in- running condition. This is Al Simmo in the race after Anmaar’s at 5 o’clock full details and a free 7 day trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be had by clicking the link below

In-Running Trading Tool



DOBbing or “Double or Bust” your Bet.

Similar to trading a 15 tick drop, this system allows the trade to trading price to drop to 50% of the back price and lay at double the stake. for instance if you back a horse at 10/1 (11.00) for £10.00 to double your stake you would need to lay the horse in running at odds of 9/2 (5.50) at a stake of £20.00! The calculation is as follows
Back £10.00 @ 11.00 returns a £100.00 profit (£10 stake x 11.00 Odds – £10 stake = £100) if the horse wins, -£10.00 if it loses
Lay £20.00 @ 5.50 will give a loss of £90 (£20.00 stake x 5.5 odds – £20.00 stake) if the horse wins, £20.00 profit if it loses.
So if the horse wins we win £10.00 (£100 – £90) and if the horse loses we win £10.00 (£20 – £10) There would also be a commission to pay at what ever rate betfair charge you on your account, in my case it is 2% so I would be left with a £9.80 profit. and its doesn’t matter if the horse wins or loses.
This part is simple enough the hard part is finding suitable horses in which this strategy has a greater chance of happening than others. Every horse that wins, DOBs this is a fact! so you might be excused to think that if you DOB all favourites then you should be in profit but the figures for all outright favourites winning in 2020 was just over 35% and some of the other 65% of losers would undoubtedly have DOBbed but we are looking for a more cast iron way of picking suitable runners. This is where the nice people at “In Running Trading Tool” website come in.
In their “simple DOB strategy they recommend the following criteria

  • Eliminate all horses that have a DOB% rate of 84.99% or less
  • Eliminate all horses that have a “ShortinRunning” figure that is a negative
  • There is no criteria mentioned for forecast odds or win% rate.
Click the picture to make it bigger

As you can see from the screen shot above there are only 2 suitable selections for today and while the picture is not as clear as I would like I have also “Expanded” the stats for each runner to show their BSP and in-play low prices for all of their previous races to try and get a feel for the prices involved and how they ran

Click the picture to make it Bigger

I have zoomed in on the first runner to try and make it a bit clearer so you can see that Sol Del Mar hasn’t looked like winning in all three of its previous races coming 17th, 11th, and 10th. It is however ridden by Conor Hoban who, in his 2 previous rides convinced the traders to back him in running to low prices of 8.00 and 16.00 from B.S.P.s of 80.52 and 471.69 respectively.
With these facts in the back of my mind I am going to set the betangel software that I use for trading to back these 2 runners at best price 10 seconds before post time and to trade out at 50% tick drop during in-play
I will post the resulting profit or loss on a post tomorrow
The beauty of using the in running trading tool is that yesterdays figures can be called as they were posted on the day and without the days results incorporated into the stats so that you can actually do a real time analysis of the criteria knowing in advance the result

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Trading in-play, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

Paddy Power In-Play Double or Bust Bet 3

Back to Australia this morning and its Newcastle Jets being Hosted by Western Utd
BTTS “Yes” will be the bet and Newcastle have already scored but it was in their own goal after 12 minutes (Bit clumsy that)
So after 56 minutes the odds have reached 1.95 just a couple more minutes ……
After 60 minutes the odds have reached 2.10 so stuck my quid on
Newcastle now have 30 minutes to score at the correct end !!
They have scored in 7 out of their last 8 games and have scored in all of their last 4 away games – confidence is high.