The first Back to Lay selection today is Friend or Foe running in the 14:00 at Warwick. I have backed it at for £3.38 (my origional stake plus profit from yesterday) at odds of 2.92 as the odds were falling but it seems I was a bit premature as the market has drifted out a bit to 3.05 as I write this. My lay order of £3.80 at a 15 tick drop to 2.62 probably wont get matched before the off but I am hopeful that the traders will help me out as the race gets under way. Having just watched his debut into chase racing on the 1st May this year , he was content to sit at second until about the 3rd from home where Briony Frost let him have his head and motored to victory, winning by nearly 5 lengths. His last outing as a hurdler was on heavy ground at Wincanton and he didn’t fare too well finishing 4th out of 5 finishers in the Betway Kingwell Hurdle on the 20th February 70 days previous . Making heavy work out of the heavy going it is plain that the going today at Warwick should suit him as the distance of 2m and good going seem to agree with him. Harry Cobden rides him today instead of Briony Frost but has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 rides. His other ride on Friend or Foe was on the 23 march 2019 where he came 10th over a bigger distance of 2m3f. At the 2 mile point he was just disputing the lead but faded badly after 2nd from home fortifying the desision to run him at 2m or there about to optimise his talent. With 1 hour to go before the off the market on Friend or Foe is static at about 3.05-3.10 For more Back to lay selections and other in running trading opportunities a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by clicking the link below.
Not much time to get onto this as todays Back to Lay bet runs at 13:40 at Bangor on Dee. Robin Des Theatre has a 25% win rate from 4 races on at 1m7f and 3 at 2m. This horse likes to lead from the front and has an average betfair tick drop of 106. Its highest BSP was 11.5 and dropped a total of 22 ticks to a in-play low of 6.2. This was its last time out at Newcastle over 2 miles on 20 march this year. Todays jockey, Brendan Powell rode it to victory in another Newcastle hurdle over 2 miles 21 days previous to that. Todays race is a 2m 1f Handicap Chase, a first for this horse but the market seems confident in the final 2 hours to post time as I backed it at odds of 16.00 and I am looking for a 15 tick drop to 9.4 to lay. With just 50 minutes to post time the market has shortened to 11.5.
Robin Des Theatre Market Graph
The screenshot above shows the steady shift downwards and how close to my Lay order the odds got as it dipped to below 10.0 about an hour before the off.
This selection was made with the help of the In-Running Trading Tool which a free trial can be obtained by clicking the link below
Welcome to todays DOB of the Day Post where, unfortunately there is only 1 selection that meets the criteria laid down for this. La Petite Coco is running in the 14:20 at the Curragh this afternoon and whilst it would be the Ideal contender for today It has 2 horses in front of it in the betting who are both front runners and the markets probably wouldnt be able to sustain 3 selections shortening so much. Timeform pace hints favour Love and Thundering Nights the two horses in question. I am going to give this one a miss today which after my luck yesterday with the Betfair “Outage” the damned thing will probably go on to win 🙄 There are some higher priced horses in other races which I am going to set betangel in practice mode to automate the process
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I have created this automation rule to the exact instructions of the betangel maestro, Peter Webb, and I am running BetAngel in practice mode.
To get a free 14 day trial of the Betangel software by clicking the link below
The selections I have loaded into betangel are the top DOB possibilities as sorted by the In-Running Trading Tool
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If you enlarge the sceenshot above you will see why onlt La Petite Coco was the only one to meet MY criteria, Heavenly Power, Point Lonsdale, and Barrington Court are out side of the odds scope While Fast Response and Turbulance have a “red” short in running total. This is a “blind” trial as I have simply loaded the selections into betangel with instructions to back the horse 5 seconds before post time at current odds and put a corresponding DOB lay order in the market with instructions to keep when event goes in-play. I have also instructed BetAngel to record the lowest in-play traded price for the selection. I have done no other research apart from the initial findings as outlined about La Petite Coco. To get a Free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
Todays DOB of the Day is Makinitup running at Sandown this afternoon in the 15:35. Making the criteria easily this 3 yr old filly has raced 3 times winning twice. This is the first Handicap she has raced in but it seems that she is in the very capable hands of Cameron Noble as Timeform have posted this in their “Specific Pace Notes” – “Hold-up horses normally aren’t favoured at this trip here and the pace forecast suggests MAKINITUP (IRE) should still be better placed than AREEHAA (IRE) to take advantage.” A slight negative to this is that she is yet to run over good ground competitively and the market should be watched nearer post time to see where the money is going. I however have thrown caution to the wind and Backed her at odds of 4.3 and placed my lay order into the market at odds of 2.13
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As you can see her forecast odds are 3.25 so I am hoping that the market will come in closer to post time shortening the gap to my lay order. If you look closely at the image above you can see that as the pace note say Areehaa might well run from the front but is perhaps unable to sustain this as her DOB rate is just 50% and in actual fact she has drifted slightly in the market in response to money going onto Pearl bay who has been backed into 6.2 from about 6.8 a few minutes ago. There is now just 40 minutes to post time and I apologise for the lateness of the post but I had a Puncture last Night putting me about 3 hours behind – Fridays!!!
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Yesterday was another successful trade with Anmaat winning makes that £10.00 profit less a bit of commission. Today there were 2 possibles but Kawida in the 14:40 at Doncaster is now a non runner, leaving Free Wind in the race after at 15:15 To remind you of the criteria
DOB rate of over 85% average for all races
Short in running figure zero or greater
A “DOB return” of over £25.00
Forecast odds between 3.0 and 20
A “Runstyle” of 1 or 2
Todays selection meets all of these conditions. Early this morning I backed it on the exchange at odds of 3.85 and subsequently put my lay bet order in as soon as the back bet was matched. (I should point out at this stage that there was a significant gap between the back odds and the lay odds (3.4 to back and 3.9 to lay) so I simply asked for a £5.00 back bet at 3.85 this was matched quite quickly so it is well worth NOT taking the back odds as is, and trying for a bit more. By doing this I have gained 9 ticks, not much I know but every little helps. At some point in the morning Glenartny was withdrawn at odds of about 15.00 so the rule 4 was invoked and now my back odds are 3.6 and Betfair has automatically adjusted my lay bet so no harm done. All that been said there are a couple of points to fortify the decision to Dob this horse. In its previous race (which is not shown in the In-Running Trading Tool) Free Wind was ridden by Frankie Dettori in Deauville to victory over a mile and a half in August beating the favourite by 1 and a half lengths showing that there is a horse/jockey connection to todays race as Dettori hadn’t ridden Free Wind before.
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“Dobbing” or backing to lay a horse to double your money or bust your bank is a popular technique for making profitable trades out of losing bigger-priced horses. The knack however is picking the right horses in the right races The “In-Running Trading Tool” has an excellent page that outlines potential horses that could trade at half the B.S.P. For a trade to successfully “DOB” the In-Play Low must reach half the B.S.P. – or half the price you backed the horse at if you got a bigger price (or lower) before the off for instance: If you backed a horse on the exchange at odds of 11.00 (10/1) for £10 you would need to place a lay bet order of £20 at odds of 5.5 The In-Running Trading Tool gives some useful advice and provides all the information required to make an informed decision. Dobbing short-priced horses is possible if the odds are above evens but the price needed to lay a horse that you backed at odds of 2.5 (6/4) would need to trade in-play at a low of 1.25 (4/1 ON!) Backing higher priced front running horses can be a better option but sorting through the information provided can quickly become confusing and cause mistakes to be made. To this end I have done a little record keeping and have analysed the top priced top tipped horses which are easily found on the Horseracing.net website on the tips page On 1st September using the criteria outlined on the In-Running Trading Tool there was just 1 contender 15:50 Uttoxeter; Ship of the Fen This horse had a B.S.P. of 10 and traded in-play at a low of 4.0 easily passing the 5.0 lay bet order. Thats 1 out of 1 Horseracing.net actuall lists 5 horses in the highest priced tipped horses and the other 4 faired as follows even though they did not meet the In-Running Trading Tool Criteria 15:05 Gowran Park; No Show B.S.P. 10 In-play Low 3.75 DOB – Yes 15:30 Lingfield Park; Dourado B.S.P. 26.83 In-play Low 7.0 DOB – Yes 15:30 Lingfield Park; Smart Qibili B.S.P. 140.0 In-play Low 120 DOB – No 16:20 Uttoxeter; Begoodtoyourslf B.S.P. 6.73 In-Play low 7.2 DOB – No
If we had Dobbed all of the 5 selections we would have been in profit (3 out of 5) Just as a footnote to these 5 horses No Show also ran the day after and won carrying a 3lb penalty!!
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Alotaibi was forecast at an S.P. of 1.33 and you would be excused from thinking that with 10 tips from the National Racing Press “Experts” that this is surely one of those banker moments – Alas it was not to be as Wanees came home in front! However Alotaibi did have a B.S.P. of 1.85 which was 13 ticks more than the industry S.P. and reached an in-play Low of 1.4! This was in fact a 45 tick drop – more than enough to meet our requirements of 1.7 for 15 ticks and a small profit Valley Forge with 11 tips and a NAP pushing it along and an attractive forecast S.P. of 3.00 (2/1) many a punter would think that it is “money back time” This was not to be unfortunately as Valley Forge managed just 3rd out of a field of 6. But as it turned out all was not lost as the B.S.P. was 2.51 and his in-play low dipped to 2.00 giving a tick drop of 25. This gave an in running profit of 12.8% With 2 out of 2 losers as far as the straight punters were concerned, I on the other hand have an overall profit of 10% on my stakes. The evening meeting at Wolverhampton and my last selection in this system was most tipped horse with 12 tips, Loves Me Likearock. Winning by just half a length very nearly made it 3 disasters for the favourite backers. Going off at 2.07 at the Betfair exchange traded to the lowest possible at 1.01 and another win for the system and finishing up 10% up on my stakes
There are just 2 selections today (5th Sept) 14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips) 14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)
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The screenshot above shows the form and other stats for the two horses To get a free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below
In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool” The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings. I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters DOB % >= 50% Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75% Win % >= 20% These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site. This gave me this screen
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The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were 15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden 15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt 15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame 16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord 17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel 18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings 18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark 18:45 Kempton; Altraif 19:15 Kempton; Jumbly 19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list Love is Golden amd Jumbly Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board. By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:
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We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality. In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded
Back Bet
Lay bet
The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5 A successful Trade! Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam. With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!
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To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.
With a 100% strike rate can this system make it 3 days in a row. Sundays are notoriously frustrating in the tipsters department – perhaps it is the drowning of their sorrows after yet another week of failed NAPs and felled favourites or just ashamed to show their faces but there never seems to be the same amount of tips submitted on Sundays. That being said when they band together in splendid isolation it seems that sometimes they know something. Yesterdays crop of 10 most tipped horses managed a win strike percentage of 60% but more importantly they ALL traded in play 15 ticks below their B.S.P. Admittedly the returns on these trades are minimal and just 1 failed trade would wipe out the days profit, but if we were to lay the trade at the same odds but with just a covering stake if the horse went on to win – which 7 did on Friday and 6 yesterday – the maths changes significantly. For Instance The first horse in the list yesterday was Barn Owl which went of at a BSP of 3.05 and won If we had laid to an equal profit at 15 ticks the lay stake would have been £11.30 at odd of 2.72 if we had backed it at £10.00 we would have come away with a £1.07 profit if the horse won or lost. Alternatively if we had Underlaid with a lay stake of £10.20 if the horse won (which it did) the profit rises to £2.96 but breaks even if the horse loses, winning or losing nothing. Something to think about if this study pans out to be a viable system. Anyway yesterdays full results are as follows
Horse
Meeting
Time
Tips
BSP
i-p low
15 tick odds
Result
Barn Owl
Beverley
14:05
8
3.05
1.01
2.72
1st
Manaccan
Newmarket
14:10
8
2.39
1.01
2.08
1st
Gladiatorial
Cartmel
14:50
9
1.65
1.01
1.5
1st
Nagano
Goodwood
15:00
10
1.75
1.09
1.6
2nd
Aquaman
Newmarket
15:20
9
2.63
2.3
2.32
3rd
Live Your Dream
Newmarket
15:55
9
1.99
1.82
1.84
4th
Fireworks
Beverley
17:00
12
1.16
1.01
1.01
1st
Bellstreet Bridie
Redcar
17:40
10
2.42
1.6
2.12
2nd
Alqamar
Cartmel
17:50
10
2.68
1.01
2.38
1st
Solid Stone
Windsor
18:30
9
3.66
1.01
2.96
1st
Totays top tipped horses are provided below as a spreadsheet exported from In Running Trading Tool and lists the runners, previous form, previous BSP and in-play lows, running style, and a whole host of other information. Simply click download to have this information at your fingertips
Also provided to help you determine the 15 tick drop needed I provide my own Tick drop calculator To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1) The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
It will open in a new window for your convenience.
To get a free 7 day trial of the information that is provided by In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Due to my workload this past week I have been unable to carry on my study of the 15 tick “system” but yesterday when I was going back through my bets of the “most Tipped horses” it struck me that even though most of the bets were just over evens or odds on there were too many losers! What if I employed the 15 tick system to all of the highly tipped horses. So without further ado I listed the 10 most tipped horses of the day and exported thier form from the “InRunning Trading Tool” website into the spreadsheet I have provided below
Of these 10 horses 4 of them did not win (Alhezabr later being dropped to 2nd place in a stewards enquiry) but ALL of them traded at at least 15 ticks below their B.S.P making a 100% strike rate.
Horse
Meeting
Time
Tips
BSP
i-p low
15 tick odds
result
Silk Romance
Newmarket
13:10
11
1.75
1.01
1.6
1st
Razzle Dazzle
Newmarket
14:20
9
1.95
1.01
1.8
1st
Percy’s Pride
Ffos Las
15:05
10
1.42
1.01
1.27
1st
Alhezabr
Ffos Las
15:40
10
2.04
1.08
1.87
2nd
Asjad
Ffos Las
16:10
13
1.79
1.12
1.64
2nd
Kentucky Rose
Hamilton
16:35
9
3.92
1.1
3.14
2nd
Thunder Legend
Hamilton
17:10
11
1.67
1.01
1.52
1st
Sweet Believer
Hamilton
18:10
12
1.83
1.01
1.68
1st
Country Pyle
Goodwood
18:23
14
2.68
1.13
2.32
3rd
Mahrajaan
Hamilton
18:40
10
2.44
1.01
2.14
1st
As you can see from the table above the 2 most tipped horses Country Pyle (14 tips) and Asjad (13 tips) managed just 3rd and 2nd respectively, but easily managed to impress the traders enough in running to bring the price down to very low odds indeed! I have produced a spreadsheet to help me determine the odds at which a 15 tick drop lay bet should be placed in relation to the B.S.P. or the actual odds that was available anytime before the off. This is also available for download below
To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1) The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds. I have also provided todays 10 most tipped horses exported from Inrunning Trading Tool spreadsheet for your perusal you can download this by clicking down load below
To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below
Betornot 