7 races – 7 winners how hard can it be? The criteria for this exercise in losing money is that I selected Timeforms 5 star runners and where these were non runners as in race 3 and 7 the next best 4 star runner with the lowest odds.
Race 1: 14:05 Beverley Maw Lam backed at 3/1 for a stake of £1.67 Lost
Running P/L -£1.67
Race 2 14:15 Bangor on Dee Can’t beat history backed at 4.5 for £1.42 Lost
Running P/L -£3.09
Race 3 14:25 Haydock Divina Grace backed at 3.5 or £2.00 Lost
Running P/L -£5.09
Race 4 14:40 Beverley Moving Force backed at 2.75 for £2.86 Lost
Odds moved slightly in my favour but still no return Running P/L -£7.95
Race 5 15:00 Haydock Sea Theme backed at 5.50 for a stake of £1.11 Lost
Running P/L -£9.06
Race 6 15:15 Beverley Billyb backed at 4.5 for a stake of £1.43 Won 🤑
A rule 4 deduction reduced my profit from £5.00 to £4.75 Running P/L -£4.31
Race 7 15:35 Haydock Ramazan backed at odds of 6.00 for a stake of £1.00 Lost
Betfair Historical Data has been, for some time now, openly available for free but it seems that no one is prepared to share just how you open the damned stuff!!! There are plenty of sites out there willing to share their python knowledge but stop short of a full explanation – very frustrating. At this point I have to give credit to “Trading The Market” guys who have finally given me the Eureka Moment! If you follow the steps below you will soon have all the research information to back test your systems. To begin with you do need to have a betfair account and to access which data you need you will need to be logged in and at the following page https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home
For the purposes of this post I will be using the basic plan which costs nothing and has a data frequency of 1 minute. If you need more frequent data logs then you will have to purchase your data by the month but there are free plans available for limited months mainly in 2020. In this post I will be analysing the data from the North London Derby – Arsenal v Tottenham on the 1st October 2022 The easy way to handle this data is to “purchase” a month at a time so I will “Buy” the Soccer data from OCT 2022 To do this simply select the plan, sport, and month you need in the drop down boxes and click “Add to Purchases” and then the “purchase” as in the screen shot below
You will then be asked to confirm your purchase – Check that you haven’t included the wrong plan by mistake as the fee will be taken straight from your betfair balance. If everything is ok click confirm and you will see the following screen.
As you can see from the screen shot there are over 250000 markets! for our research we only need 3 or 4 of these so we need to find them. I want to know how the under/over Markets behaved when each goal went in during the match. To do this click on the “My Data” Tab as shown below and you will see your most recent purchases as well as plans you have bought before.
We now need to populate the down load fields with the information that we need so if we look at the match stats we can see that there were 4 goals scored in total.
I want to see the following market odds O/U 1.5 O/U 2.5 O/U 3.5 O/U 4.5 O/U 5.5 O/U 6.5 and the Match. To do this we need to populate the download files panel as follows:
In the Plan Box (which is at the top but hidden in this screen shot) enter Basic In the Sport Box enter Soccer In the From and Upto Boxes enter 1 Oct 2022 Leave the event ID Blank In the Event Name box enter Arsenal In the Market Type box select the markets you need and in this case its Match_Odds Over_Under_25 Over_Under_35 Over_Under_45 Over_Under_55 Over_Under_65 In the Country Box select GB (There is no UK) and in the File Type Box select M Click the Add to Downloads button You now should have 12 files ready to down load. Click the Yellow Download button
You will find this file in your downloads folder as a Data “tar” file
Double click the file to un pack it in your unzipping program
Keep double clicking until you get to the actual data files
You should now see your 6 “bz2” files To make them easy to find Create a new folder on your desktop and name it ARS v TOT
You can now drag and drop the files into this folder from your unpacking software
We now need to convert these files into a readable format and Betfair provide one such program easily available from their website.
The first file we want to see is the Match Odds and this will usually be the largest file as most volume would have passed through that market. In this case we are looking at File 1.203213491
These are not very user friendly file names so I am going to rename them. to do this we simply select a file from the list using the betfair Historical Data Processor as below and note the file number and which market it contains. In this case File 1.203213498 is the O/U 6.5 goals Market. We dont want to do anything else yet. We are just identifying the files for our convenience
We can then repeat the process with all the files noting the file numbers to the markets and then rename all the files as below
We are now going to convert these files into meaningful excel ranges where we can look at them in more detail. To do this we again select a file from the folder using the Historical Data Processor and click the download settings button as shown in the screenshot below
This will open the settings dialog box as shown below
We now need to populate our spreadsheet with any relevant information we will need by clicking the drop down box arrow and selecting the fields by ticking the relevant tick boxes (dont worry if you put too much info into the spreadsheet as we can delete it later)
Once you have selected what you need close the drop down box by clicking the “up” arrow and because we are just interested in the in play data slide the “preplay” button to off as shown below and click save
We are now ready to download the file as a CSV file into Excel we do this by simply clicking the “Download CSV” button as shown and let the wonders of better brains than our own do its stuff.
This will put a zipped file into your downloads folder with the original file number
If we double click this file it will unpack and be available as a csv file which we can open with excel.
It may be a good idea to move this file to a new folder on your desktop and rename it as I have done here
If we open this in excel this is what we get.
We can now start to manipulate the data to best suit our needs. We can start by removing some of the columns we dont need. I have removed the following columns to be left with the following spreadsheet. Market ID Selection ID
The next task is to make the published time more reader friendly. as you can see this is total jibberish, it means nothing. If you select cell A2, in the address window you will see that the full date and time is shown
So that column A shows the time in hrs and minutes we need to select hh:mm from the custom cell formats as shown below.
When we click ok then cell A2 will show the actual time of the published data for that row
To convert all the row simply select Column A and repeat
When you click ok your spreadsheet should look like this
you will notice that the times are repeated 3 times this is because there are 3 separate outcomes within this betfair market – Arsenal to win The Draw and Tottenham to win. If we now draw our attention to Column F this is the last traded price column and we could do with tidying up this so that all the figures are shown to 2 decimal places. To do this simply select Column F and using the cell number format dropdown box, select “Number” as shown below.
Your spreadsheet should now look something like this
A bit more tidying up by changing the column headers and this is what you should be looking at.
This is your basic data spreadsheet for the entire match for the Match Odds Market You can now save it into a folder and repeat the process with the other 5 markets
In my next post I will show you how to manipulate the data so that we can see what happened in each market as each goal went in
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Trading tennis might be quite daunting at first but when you actually look at some key points in tennis matches this can be a great introduction into the bewildering world of sports trading. There are so many opportunities to make (and lose) money in this activity, that many “match bettors” that have made the progression from having their betting accounts “gubbed” to gravitating to the only real option left open to them in their betfair account. With there being so many markets available every day and so much “advice” being forced on naive beginners, many lose money and therefore lose interest. In this series of blog posts I will aim to point out some of the more obscure trading opportunities I have discovered which are of less risk and more reward. Sports trading is a risk, and while you are never putting your full stake at risk there is always the greater probability that the trade will go against you and you will have to trade out of the market for a loss. This can be for a variety of reasons, lack of knowledge and lack of research being just 2. Many beginners to trading will perhaps watch a couple of YouTube videos where the presenter makes trading look so easy and lucrative that they just jump into a similar market that was shown and try and do exactly the same with catastrophic consequences. As a potential trader you must have, at the very least a working knowledge of how various markets behave. Tennis, to my mind, could be the sport where this can be learned quite easily and with a relatively low risk to your stake.
The Racing Post, a respected and some would say a vital part of British and Irish racing. The content of the paper and on line version of the only real guide to days racing is second to none but should we do our own research or just back the runners that are in BOLD in the race preview that can be found on many betting sites. I think that the Racing Post has a reputation to uphold so why would bookmakers willingly put the racing post preview at the head of the race page. Sceptical attitudes may say that if the bookies are willingly publishing these views by “Verdict” from the racing post then statistically they (the bookies) will win over all. Todays meetings come from Bellowstown, Kempton, Doncaster, Uttoxeter, Stratford, and Chelmsford City.
Looking for Level Stakes profit to £1.00 stake for all races Lets see how they get on.
First meeting in order of timing today is Bellewstown 13:20 Fast Tara (Abandoned) 13:55 Master Garvey (Abandoned) 14:30 Ten to Ten (Abandoned) 15:05 Escapingthejungle (Abandoned) 15:40 Tawaazon (Nap) (Abandoned) 16:15 Theonewedreamof (Abandoned) 16:50 Star Kissed (Abandoned)
Kempton Meeting starts at 13:30 13:30 Burgar LOST 14:05 Phantom Flight LOST 14:40 Brains LOST 15:15 Aztec Empire (Nap) LOST 15:50 Fix You 16:25 Cuban Breeze 17:00 Simply Sondheim
Doncaster next and the first race goes off at 13:50 13:50 Valadero LOST 14:25 Dirtyoldtown LOST 15:00 Asjad LOST 15:35 Awaal (Nap) 16:10 Poker Face 16:45 Ribal 17:20 Aldbourne 17:50 Aone Ally
Uttoxeter 14:10 Tonto Foley LOST 14:45 Sporting Ace LOST 15:20 Corey’s Courage LOST 15:55 Blackjack Magic 16:30 Gold Emery 17:05 Had to be Hugo (Nap) 17:35 Mistral Milly
The final meeting of the afternoon is from Stratford 14:17 Beau Balko LOST 14:52 The Grey Falco (Nap) LOST 15:27 Weebil LOST 16:02 Lamanver Bel Ami 16:37 Go Steady 17:12 Banteer
The sole evening meeting is from Chelmsford City and first race goes off at 17:30. 17:30 Vitralite 18:00 Boasty 18:30 Prenup (Nap) 19:00 Iconic Moment 19:30 Beyond Equal 20:00 Pending Appeal 20:30 Heath Rise
I have annotated the Nap selections for each meetings but will list them again here Bellowstown 15:40 Tawaazon (Nap) Kempton 15:15 Aztec Empire (Nap) Doncaster 15:35 Awaal (Nap) Uttoxeter 17:05 Had to be Hugo (Nap) Stratford 14:52 The Grey Falco (Nap) Chelmsford 18:30 Prenup (Nap)
Having just belatedly received my Jumpers to follow list for the 2021/22 season (I got it at half price) I thought that following horses halfway through the season might not be an altogether bad thing as you can see how they have done so far in the season. I then got to thinking why not make my own list but not of good prospects this season which are usually aimed at big races but day to day runners which I can back to lay in-running. The sheer volume of horses racing each day could make this a task of monumental proportions so I started to whittle down the most prevalent horses each day, concentrating on predominately front running horses. As I subscribe to The In-Running Trading Tool I can see at a glance horses that prefer to lead races and provide a good opportunity to make small but regular profits win or lose. This, however is not foolproof, and just because it ran well and the traders backed it down to odds on in-running the last two runs doesn’t mean it will do the same this time. There are many factors that will and do change how a horse will run a race such as going, distance, a jockey change or even a stable change. This latter factor may not be as prevalent as the late great Dick Francis portrays in his most excellent novels but it does happen. Once I have a couple of good prospects for the day I can then switch over to the Timeform website and check any pace hints that they provide for the race and if the horse is mentioned I then go to the sporting Life website where I can usually watch the horses previous races to get a feel for how it ran. Having satisfied myself that I can risk a bet I will then look at the exchange – usually betfair – and look at the price changes via the provided chart to determine whether the odds are steadily drifting out or static or starting to come in and try and judge the best time to place a small bet. Once the bet is on then I continue to monitor the odds to note any changes. Once the bet is on I will then place a lay bet at the closest “cross-over” point (Exchange cross-over points are points in the exchange range of odds where the range of odds change and betfair describe them as follows)
“There are points in the Betfair odds system that we call “crossover points”. These are around odds such as 4.0 where the tick below is 3.95 (0.05 away) and the tick above is 4.1 (0.10 away). It often makes sense to lay at odds of 4.0 as your risk is lower than your reward over the short-term.
Because of this, you often see the market pause at price changes. Support and resistance can become imbalanced too, as lots of people are keen place their lay bets. You might also see the market spike downwards if it breaks through a crossover point, as all of the layers scurry to close out of their positions.”
I place this below the backed odds and ensure that I change the Lay from “cancel” at in-play to “keep” This will ensure that my bet lay bet will still be available once the race is off. If the back to lay trade is successful after the race has finished or in some cases before the race is actually at post time then the horse can be added to the “Follow” spreadsheet. To make things easy and to get an alert when the horse is next running I also add it to my Timeform Tracker list which I have set up to send me a “push” notification the evening before the race as well as an email.
The information that is available for your chosen horses is vast so choosing what Information to record can be overwhelming however Excel is a truly outstanding piece of software which can be utilised for as much or as little as you think is relevant. I have provided a workbook for anyone to download and use. It is populated with 1 horse (Best Trition) and a template sheet for you. The front page is an index page which is handy for you to summarise and quickly access the runners record as well as
Having done all this I can now wait patiently for emails to arrive and determine the probability of a successful back to lay bet without trawling through reams of information which might sway me into a bad decision. When you have established your “Stable” and have grown some confidence in your selections you can start to determine how far your lay bet you are willing to make away from your back bet. To help you in this I have also provided a “tick-drop” calculator. This simple spreadsheet will enable you to instantly work out the odds needed for a 10, 20 or 30 tick drop from the actual back odds taken.
Understanding the initial direction of the Over or Under goals markets on a betting exchange when the game goes in-play and the different speeds that the market moves is key to judging your risk when trading. Grasping this and understanding what happens when a goal is scored is half the battle to making profit in these markets. As a game goes in-play the probability of a goal being scored begins to diminish when you are trading the Over goals market which means that the odds will increase as the minutes tick away. Depending on which Over market you are attempting to trade, when a goal does go in, the odds will take a very steep drop to a level where the probability of the market being fulfilled will reflect in the odds depending on what time the goal was scored. For instance If you had laid the Over 2.5 goals and the first goal went in after 5 minutes then there are 85 more minutes of the game left for the remaining 2 goals to be scored and the probability of this happening will reflect as very high and the odds will plummet to a point which would put you into a loss position in the market. If, however, the first goal wasnt scored until the 85th minute then the probability of 2 more goals being scored in the final 5 minutes is very low and the movement in the odds would be slight, if at all. To demonstrate this visually I am going to use a smart bit of software called BetAngel and a feature in the program called “Soccer Mystic”. This will “predict” the odds during a predetermined game if or when goals are scored. There is a game tonight in the English Championship between Barnsley and Swansea City and for no other reason that it is first alphabetically will serve my purpose admirably. At the time of posting this the predicted lay odds on the Over 2.5 goals market is 1.91. While this is just a predicted odds level at kick-off the market can be different depending on factors such as team sheet announcements, but for the purposes of this it will suit. If we say that we have a lay bet of £5.00 at odds of 1.91 this would give us a liability (total ammount we can lose) of £4.55 at kick-off. We can use “Soccer Mystic” to see our profit/loss should a goal be scored in the fifth minute. The screen shot below shows the predicted odds if no goal is scored in minute 5 and the predicted odds if there was a fifth minute goal
Barnsley v Swansea predicted odds after 5 minutes
As you can see we can determine our risk if there was a goal in the 5th minute and this would be a loss of £2.08 if we traded out. In the next screen shot Soccer Mystic also gives a visual representation of how the market “recovers” as the match progresses and can give us an indication as to when we could trade out for no loss if while watching the match we ascertain that the first goal was a fluke i.e. own goal or a lucky fumble in the box and decide to let the bet run to our predetermined exit point.
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The predicted odds are shown by the red line in the graph and as you can see after the first goal going in at the 5th minute the odds plunged to 1.34 but then as the game progresses and no other goal is scored the market recovers slowly to rise after about 35 minutes in-play time to a break even point where we can exit the trade for a no loss/profit. In the graph the horizontal blue line is the “profit” line and when we are laying the market when the red line is above the blue a profitable trade is possible. As with all things betting or trading research is the key and you may have noticed that I mentioned a predetermined exit point. After doing some really basic research on this game tonight I came to a decision, provisionally, that the first goal probably, using previous games as a guide that perhaps, barring fluke goals, the first goal might be some time after the 17th minute. Using this as our control point we can set out exit point at 15 minutes win or lose
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In the screen shot above I have pointed the cursor at 15 minutes and in the ringed box shows us that the predicted odds after 15 minutes when the first goal was scored after 5 mins would be about 1.49. This would leave us in a losing position but if we were right and the next goal went in at minute 17 then our loss would be greater. If of course no goal was scored and we trade out at 15 minutes Soccer Mystic can show us our predicted profit as shown below.
Barnsley v Swansea 15 minute goal
I am sure you are thinking “what if I want to back over 2.5 goals ” then the opposite applies and if you had backed this market at the odds shown and a quick goal was scored then the odds would move dramatically in your favour to enable you to trade out at a profit. as shown below.
Barnsley v Swansea back bet 5 minute goal
We would exit this trade at this point for a £1.93 profit and this would be great but again when we go into this trade we need to pick an exit point and having done the same research we think that the first goal will be at about 17 minutes how far past this point do we go if no goals are scored. If we pick our exit point at say 25 minutes and no goals are scored Soccer Mystic can show us what sort of loss we would expect to take as demonstrated below
Barnsley v Swansea 25 minute goal on a back bet
As you can see an overall loss of £1.95 would be our exit loss. To summarise if we are laying an “Over” market the odds rise steadily in our favour and continue to provide the potential profit but as soon as a goal is scored our profit potential vanishes to be replaced with the very great risk of a losing trade, on the flip side, if we back the “over” market then our position is of a losing trade until a goal goes in and the earlier the better.
Just for fun there are 7 championship matches tonight and the average time for a first goal this season in the championship league is 32 minutes the following 7 screen shots show what you could expect to win if you laid the Over 2.5 goals market and each game remained goalless until this point.
These 7 screenshots predict the odds and probable trade out profit if there were no goals in their respective games
The automation files for this trade performed without a hitch and a profit was made even though Manchester City floundered badly losing 2-0 to Crystal Palace. The lunchtime kick-off was between Leicester City and Arsenal and as we lunched at the Greyhound Inn at Milton Malsor, Arsenal scored in the 5th minute. At 12:36 Betangel detected the goal and duly placed a back bet into the draw market 25 miles away from where I was tucking into my Gammon Egg and Chips and the first trade was settled for a profit of £1.28 whatever the outcome of the game after 90 mins.
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The two screenshots above show, firstly, how the bets were placed and secondly the timings, stake, market and odds of each lay and back bets. Nothing in the research predicted the outcome of this match apart from there being at least 1 goal scored which was enough as soccer mystic indicated that which ever side scored first we would see a profitable trade being made. The second researched game was the Burnley v Brentford game at 3pm. As mentioned in the research there were no previous meetings of these two sides so it all came down to this seasons form in the goals department and again the research bore no resemblance to the actual match played as Burnley opened the scoring after 4 minutes.
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£2.10 was the profit taken from this trade but whether it was a VAR factor or a betfair operative going to sleep the market did not become unsuspended for 5 minutes after a somewhat confusing 11 minutes of the game kicking off either way a goal caused the market to move in our favour and a successful trade was executed 11 minutes after the official time of the goal.
Early goals seemed to be the trend yesterday as Liverpool opened their account with a 4th Minute goal from Henderson creating a £4.05 profit for us. 2 minutes after the goal went in the odds of the draw had risen to 12.0 and Betangel duly placed a back bet into the market of £5.83 which was matched 6 minutes and 36 seconds
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Total profit so far £7.43
The only losing trade was the Manchester City v Crystal Palace fixture, where, after 6 minutes the second worst thing after a goalless match happened, Crystal Palace scored!! The resulting back bet placed, unemotionally, by betangel made a £9.09 LOSS. This was a slightly better outcome than the scenario projected by Soccer Mystic of a £10.74 loss after a Crystal Palace first goal but at least the bookies are opening the Bolanger this morning.
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In contrast to the other games so far it took Chelsea 65 minutes to score the first goal in this game and this gave us the largest profit of the day after backing the draw at odds of 9.4. This made the trade profit at £5.01. I am beginingg to wonder if this is fun or heart failure provoking 🤣.
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Che Adams opened the scoring in the Watford v Southampton game 10 minutes after our research suggested. This resulted in our trade making £2.69 profit and as the half time whistles echoed around the grounds we were £1.03 in profit.
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Total profit for all researched matches after Chelsea’s 65th Minute Goal came to £6.04 It would be unfair for me not to point out that Laying the draw on the five 3pm games at a stake of £10.00 would need a betfair balance of £250.00.
In this post I will be looking in depth into a popular football bet/trade “lay the draw” This bet/trade is only available to exchange users as you are betting that the match does not end in a draw. Laying or betting against an outcome of a football match, horse race or any other sporting and political event puts many punters off as the liability can be quite substantial because in effect you are acting as bookmaker to a “bet placer” for instance a losing lay bet of 6.0 at £10.00 would cost you £50.00 to the winner of the bet. Laying the draw can be somewhat safer as there is usually a winner in a football match and usually at least one team scores. If we look at a “Crowd Allowed” season of results ie a non-chinese bat flu season, 18/19 for instance there were less than 6% of games that ended 0-0 in the premier league, that is just 22 games out of 380. This of course doesn’t include score draws but all I am interested in is the games where at least one goal was scored. If we look at the score draws for the same season (18/19) there were 32 1-1 draws 15 2-2’s, and 2 3-3’s making a total of 71 score and no-score draws. The odds on a match draw behave with unerring predictability. From when the match kicks off the odds of a draw steadily decrease down to 1.01 at ful time unless a goal is scored whereby the odds jump with varying degrees depending on which team score. If the favourite scores first and early in the game then the draw odds will jump significantly allowing a profitable trade to be reaped. If however the “underdog” scored first and were the away side then the draw odds would not move much if at all. To illustrate this, and with the kind permission of the support staff at Betangel, the following screen shots utilise the “soccer mystic” feature of their software. I am using the match between PSG and Lille tonight where PSG are odds on favourites to win at 1.41 at the time of writing.
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Soccer Mystic quite accurately predicts the odds of football matches when goals are scored and in the screenshot above you can see that if Lille were to score first in the first 15 minutes then the draw odds would actually go DOWN instead of up as in the case of PSG scoring first. This tells us that if this were the case then the market would believe that a draw was even more likely to happen than if there were no goals scored. Trading out after the first goal then would, in this case, be extremely detrimental to the health of our betfair account balance. These odds however would slowly decrease still until perhaps 2/3 of the game and only then would they start to increase slowly during the match so long as PSG didn’t score. How likely is that??? This is illustrated by the graph shown below (another great feature of soccer mystic)
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It would actually take about 50 minutes of game time before the odds began to move favourably and 82 minutes before we could look at taking a profit. This is of course if PSG dont score a goal in the meantime. This is a worst case scenario and the purpose of this post is to determine whether or not laying the draw is a viable strategy. “Blanket” laying all the 3’oclock Saturday premiership fixtures in any one week to a £10.00 stake would need an account balance in excess of £200.00 and that is just for the 5 games usually kicking off at this time. How then can we reliably hope to make a profit from this strategy. The answer is research. If we take tonight’s fixture between QPR and Nottingham Forest the odds of the draw are 3.6 to make a straight lay bet which will create a £26.00 liability for our £10.00 stake. (this means we would win £10.00 for a result other than a draw or if the game ended level we would lose £26.00) If we remember that we are going to trade out our bet after the first goal we can look at the average times that these two teams scored their first goals. The following screenshot is from Soccerstats.com and shows the timings of goals both for and against when the teams were playing at home and away respectfully.
We can see that both teams score most of their goals in the second half but QPR do like to concede in the first half having 71% of goals scored against them this season happen in the first 45 minutes. Both teams have scored in all of their respective home and away games so we can tentatively look at what profit we can gain from laying this draw and trading out or “greening” once a first goal has been scored by either team. Betangel will be our guide for this again and the match is covered by soccer mystic. Using the predicted odds feature, if the first goal was scored by QPR then the odds would rise to about 5.1 to 5.2 up to the 60th minute which would give us a greened up profit of about £3.00 for our £10.00 stake. If Nottingham were to score first then our profit would levitate at about £1.60 in the same time frame. After 60 minutes, apart from the rusty starfish starting to clench due to the diminishing number of minutes left, our profit equalises if either team scores reaching a dizzying £8.97 profit in minute 90 – At this point you would cancel the trade instruction and take your tenner hoping against hope that the opposition didn’t score. In this instance I will be testing a downloadable file from the betangel forum in practice mode which will automatically place a lay bet at kick off and trade out for an equal profit/loss, if and when the first goal is scored. I will post the resulting conclusion here after the match. Please like this post if you like it or comment below
