In play trading – Page 4

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections (Monday 23rd Aug 2021)

Using the same criteria even though one runner yesterday went out of scope on the B.S.P. there are two probable selections for today
Just to remind you of the criteria

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5

The first is Café Sydney in the 15:15 at Brighton. With a win rate percentage of 16.67 and a forecasted B.S.P. of 13.00 Mollie Phillips has piloted this horse to a 65 tick drop at Leicester last time out and a massive 193 tick drop at its last time running here at Brighton. I think that it is worth mentioning the “Race style” column on the spreadsheet. This is represented by the numbers 1-4 with 1 being a front runner and 4 liking the veiw of the other horses arses! The average race style of Cafe Sydney is 3 but in its last 7 Runnings 3 of which it won, albeit on the all weather, the actual race style was 4 and only once did it not meet the 15 tick drop threshold and that was at Windsor on soft ground. This suggests that it likes other horses to make the running and then break from behind but doesn’t like soft going. With the going at Brighton this afternoon being good, hopes are high for this one.
The second selection on the list is Ballon Onabudget (who thinks these names up?) which has a forecasted B.S.P. of just 3.50 and looking at the betting markets is currently 3rd fav at 4.5 at SkyBet. A winrate % of 20.05% and running over 2 miles today instead of its usual 3ish miles (its last 9 outings have been between 2m6f and 3m2f. Its average race style is actually 3 but the last twice it ran over todays distance it was 2 hinting that at the shorter distance it likes to be in touch with the leader in the hopes of making that final break for it near the end. With only 5 runners in the race today I think that on previous form and with Johnathan Burke on board we may have a 1-2 clean up today lets face it I need it after yesterday.
As I have done previously I have provided the spreadsheet detailing these two runners form, race styles and starting odds etc. for download by clicking the link below

inrunningtradingtool-26 Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

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In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Sundays Results

Hi All
I will get straight into the results so I can post todays selections in my next post
Yesterday there were 3 possible selections for the 15 tick drop strategy all at different racecourses
The first on the list was Viking Ruby running at Worcester in the 13:35, Far from being favourite it went off at odds of 24.9 on Betfair and the in-play low price got to 8.4 before the traders gave up. Although this B.S.P. is out of our scope it is worth logging as these rules are not set in stone and I can adjust them as more results play out. The 15 tick drop price would have been 15.00 so this would have been a complete success giving a healthy £6.02 profit after Commission had been deducted
Middle for Diddle was Affable running in the 15:30 at Naas. A healthy in scope B.S.P. of 11.00 rose to an in-play low of 15.00 which means that the jockey must have put the damned horse in reverse at the start losing £10.00 into the bargain.
Lastly, and fortunately a placed horse Beyond Equal started with a healthy in scope B.S.P. of 9.40 dropped to an in-play low of just 2.00 which easily met our 15 tick target of 6.4 and after betfair commission has been paid I was left with £4.18 profit.
In summary then with one runner out of scope I lost £5.82 on day 1 to £10.00 stakes
No one can accuse me of waiting until I had a winning day to start my study.

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

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In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections

With a 100% success yesterday the selections for this study as determined by the criteria defined on In Running Trading Tool website are as follows

Viking Ruby 13:35 Worcester
Affable 15:30 Naas
Beyond Equal 17:20 Sandown

Viking Ruby has a forecast B.S.P of 13.00 and a “Short In Running” return of £17.00. A win rate percentage of 15.79% put it just within the parameters required
Affable has the biggest win rate percentage of 23.53% and a forecast B.S.P. of just 6.00. “Short In Running” returns are £3.50 and an average “Tick Drop” of 94!
Beyond Equal with a forecast B.S.P. of 11.00 and a profitable “Short In Running” figure of £3.50 as well as a 20% win rate percentage
As yesterday the complete form, previous B.S.P and in play low prices along with average race style and a host of other information is availale in the form of a spreadsheet that you can download from the link below.

inrunningtradingtool-24 Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

Trading a Horse at 15 tick drop in-play 21 Aug update

Carrying on from yesterdays post I outlined the nuts and bolts of trading a horse in play after backing it at B.S.P. (Betfair Starting Price). This system of trading uses a specific set of criteria pulled from the In Running Trading Tool website.

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5

Using this determined that there were 4 possible selections. These were
Wrenthorpe 15:20 Chester
Pablo Escobar 15:35 York
Robin Des Foret 16:35 Killarney
Cockalorum 16:45 York
These horses and their form were provided in the form of a spreadsheet which I posted for download and if you missed it you can download it below

inrunningtradingtool-23 Download

Starting with Wrenthorpe
The B.S.P. forecast was 17.00 but actually went of at 32.00 making it move outside of the scope and therefore disqualifying it from the system but it did go on to trade inplay at a low of 16.5 with the 15 tick threshold at 18.00 would have made a successful trade. making a £7.10 profit to a £10.00 stake after commission deductions.
Pablo Escobar
The B.S.P. forecast was 21 just qualifying for the study but went off at a massive 65 15 ticks below this price is 28 but it went on to trade at 17. had we have initiated this trade when the market hit 28.00 we would have made a £12.41 profit to our £10.00 stake. The horse actually finished 8th out of 20, 10 lengths off the winner!
Robin Des Foret
With the lowest forecast B.S.P. yet at 13.00 this seemed as though we may have seen a bet placed ready for a trade but fortunately, in hindsight, the B.S.P. was in fact 35.76 making the 15 tick trade point 19.00. It only traded at an in-play low of 24.00 potentially losing us our £10.00 stake
Cockalorum
This was the last selection meeting the potential criteria and actually went off 3 ticks below the forecast B.S.P. of 17.00 at 16.70 trading inplay at a low of 4.2. Our 15 tick trade point was 9.6 making a £6.80 profit to a £10.00 stake.

In summary then of the 4 possible selections the only horse to actually start within the parameters was Cockalorum and did handsomely putting us £6.80 up on day 1.

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool