While sat waiting for yet another customer to come and unload their meat I quickly did the ITV 7 on Wednesday 5th of June. My criteria was simple – I just selected the 7 horses that Timeform rated with 5 stars. Not rocket science but nothing to lose. I had 2 winners from the 7 – this equates to a 28.5% strike rate. I then got to thinking what if I had backed these 7 selections individually for a target profit of £5.00 so I did the maths If I had backed these at S.P. my total stake would have been £13.16. With 2 winners both yielding £5.00 each in profit (not returns) I would have come out with a £2.81 overall profit
Mojo Star with 13 tips romps home to add to the most tipped horses study profit total of 21.1 points this month Full details of all runners this Month are available in this post Most Tipped Horses Study
The Punchestown Festival gets underway today and as SkyBet seem to want to give money away on their boosted bets of late I thought it rude not to take them up on one of their boosts in the 15:40 where they are paying out on 7 places instead of 4 if there are 18 or more runners. The boost is Scholastic placing at odds of 2.0 This is entirely an impulse bet and can’t do any worse than that damned Melbourne team not even being able to score in the second half earlier!!!
With only league 1 and league 2 games tonight A league 2 mid table clash between Carlisle and Leyton Orient provides a suitable game to start the week for my next free bet qualifying bet. As I don’t want to lose all my money on one bet I will be staking 5 x £5.00 bets each week to try and stay even if not a little bit in profit. (Remember a total of £25.00 has to be staked at 2.0 (Evens) or better to get your weekly free bet). I have staked £5.00 on the over 2.5 goals market at 2.0 for the following reasons. Carlisle Utd at home have a 72% record of scoring in the first half with 9 out of 23 goals coming in the first 15 minutes and another 10 in the last 15 minutes of the half while in the final third of the second half they have conceded 9 out of the 14 goals against them in the second half. With these stat in mind it would suggest that they are quick to attack in the first half hopefully putting their opponents on to the back foot but let themselves down at the back end of the game indicating perhaps a 2-1 win for the home team. Other factors that give the bet a little weight is that Carlisle have conceded at least one goal in the last 11 games (Both home and Away) but they have scored in all of their home games this season and averaging 2. Leyton Orient have conceded have scored in 71% of their away games this season. Carlisle, when at home to other mid table sides have a 2-1 win v Salford (9th), 3-1 v Bradford (12th) and 4-0 v Stevenage (15th). Leyton’s away games when playing teams above them in the league have all ended with at least 3 goals being scored except for 4 Tranmere, Bolton, Newport and Bradford.
Timeform has a star rating system to which it grades each and every horse raced in Britain. These are a series of Blogs that chart the 3 year trends of the top 3 horses as rated by Timeform for the Cheltenham Festival. The aim of this is to determine whether or not a £1.00 level bet on each of the selections would produce a profit overall (There are 7 races each day therefore max loss each day would be £21.00) First up is the SkyBet Supreme Novices Hurdle 2018 (19 ran) 1 Kalashnikov 2 Summerville Boy 3 Getabird Winner : Summerville Boy S.P. 7/1 Profit/Loss £5.00
2020 (15 Ran) 1 Asterion Forlonge 2 Captain Guinness 3 Shishkin Winner : Shishkin 6/1 Profit/Loss £4.00 This stategy has produced a clear profit each year An added bonus to this strategy is that SkyBet will refund your first bet should it lose upto £10.00 maximising the profit or cutting the loss if none win.
Betornot 