Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors 3 selections at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)
First to run was Gutsy Girl which was advised at odds of 4/1 (5.0) I backed it at 11:45 at S.P but the odds available then was 5/2 (3.5) Unfortunately it could only manage 3rd place.
Gutsy Girl (3rd)
Profit is Plummeting and the next to run was Valkyrian in the 8:45 at Windsor Advised at Publication at 16/1 (17.0) Stake was 67p at S.P. as available odds had halved to 15/2 (8.5) S.P. Odds recovered to 12/1 (13.0) which would have been nice if it had won instead of coming 7th
Valkyrian (7th)
With another 67p knocked off the profit the last runner on Hughs list was Coin Power. Advised at odds of 10/1 (11.0) by the time I got my 91p on at 11:45 the odds had dropped to 11/2 (6.5) By Post time the S.P. was 7/1 so again disappointing not to have surpassed advised odds but had it of won instead of coming 8th then I would have a profit of £6.37 instead of my target fiver.
Coin Power (8th)
Numerous people have now pointed out to me that S.P. is a poor bet and I agree but in all of the runners so far this month all have been above the odds available at the time the bet was struck so that with any other bookie than SkyBet Best Odds Guaranteed would have been applicable and instead of backing at S.P. I would have taken the offered odds for my Guaranteed fiver if it won. The sole purpose of this study if you like is to try and make people see that, yes the bookies decimate the odds to capitalize on the faithful which to my mind is despicable, but the odds can and do recover sometimes to a mark greater than the advised price at publication time. Its a good job Hugh had a couple of winners Saturday because my Profit is now down to £5.03
Today I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)
Todays Selection was Cargin Bhui which ran at Hamilton this evening. Advised odds were 11/4 but just 1 hour later those odds had been cut to 2/1 Working to a profit of £5.00 per winner I staked £2.50 to Win at S.P. in the hope that the odds drifted towards post time A very close 2nd place has reduced my June Profit to £8.61
S.P. as you can see was 3/1 Another selection where S.P. was greater than the advised odds 👍
Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Only one selection today and is as Follows
6:10 Hamilton Cargin Bhui Advised Odds 11/4 (3.75) Odds available at 10:30 : 2/1 (3.0) Stake 2.50 Result –
Yesterday I backed all four of Hugh Taylors ATR racing tips but instead of clamoring to get my money on before the odds disappeared I simply backed them at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)
First in the List was Sea of Thieves in the 2:00 at Epsom Downs at an advised price at publication of 14/1. This was published at 9:11 and by 10:30 the odds were 9/1. I backed this at S.P. for 56p which would have given me £5.00 profit if the odds stayed at 9/1 or a bonus amount if the odds drifted and by some miracle the horse won.
As you can see from the settled bet that the price did drift, not to the advised price but close and if it had won would have given a profit of £6.72 instead of the £5.00 at the 9/1 price.
Second to run was Billy Webster in the 3:10 again at Epsom. Published at 9:24 at advised odds of 10/1. I again backed this at S.P. for a stake of 83p as the odds available at 10:30 were down to 6/1
The calculation for these bets is simple Target profit / Decimal odds -1 £5.00 / (7.00 – 1)
By Post Time the odds had drifted to 14/1 which would have given a profit of £11.62 if it had won.
Taylors next selection to run was also at Epsom and he tipped Relentless Voyager in the 5:15 at an advised price of 13/2 (7.5) at the publication time of 9:03. By 10:30 these odds had sunk to 4/1 or 5.0 in decimal. Backed at S.P. for a stake of £1.00 to reap a £5.00 profit if the odds didn’t sink further.
As you can see the odds drifted out to 7/1 (8.0) at post time and the horse won giving a profit of £7.00 instead of the £5.00 target figure.
Taylors fourth and final runner was at Doncaster in the 6:15 and was published on the ATR website at 09:39. Wild Waves price was advised at 9/2 (5.50) at this time and an hour later was a mere 5/2 (3.50) on Sky Bet. Backed at S.P. for a £2.00 stake my target profit if the odds didn’t dip below this price and if the horse won would again be £5.00
As you can see from my settled bet slip This horse also won at 11/4 (3.75) and while the odds didn’t reach those of the advised price by a long chalk they did drift slightly from the 3.50 giving me a profit of £5.50
My Total profit from these four bets ended up at £11.11 from a total of £4.39 staked! Better than being poked in the eye with a sharp stick I think.
I know that if I had used another bookmaker that offered BOG then I would have had guaranteed odds and could have taken the price offered without fear of the odds dipping some more. As it is if I had taken the prices offered by SkyBet at the time of striking the bets then my profit would have been £8.61 – £2.50 less than my actual profit. If you had used the same staking method AND had been able to get the ADVISED prices then the profit would have been as follows
Sea of Thieves Advised odds 15.00 Stake 36p Lost P/L -36p Billy Webster Advised odds 11.00 Stake 50p Lost P/L -50p Relentless Voyager Advised odds 7.5 Stake 77p Won P/L £5.01 Wild Waves Advised odds 5.5 stake £1.11 Won P/L 4.99
Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Todays Selections are as follows
2.00 Epsom Downs : Sea of Thieves Advised Odds 14/1 Odds available at 10:30 : 9/1 Stake 56p Result –
3.10 Epsom Downs : Billy Webster Advised Odds 10/1 Odds available at 10:30 6/1 Stake 83p Result –
5.15 Epsom Downs : Relentless Voyager Advised Odds 13/2 Odds available at 10:30 4/1 Stake £1.25 Result
6.15 Doncaster : Wild Waves Advised Odds 9/2 Odds available at 10:30 5/2 Stake £2.00 Result –
Requesting your own “build a bet” is not as daunting as first supposed they can only say no or more probably not reply at all but in the cases where they do price your bet they sometimes feature it on the platform. Firstly you need to be armed with your own figures and an idea of what sort of markets you are going to put in to it. To this end I have the beginnings of a Workbook for the premiership which will list the following probable outcomes based on the seasons figures for each team involved. Full Time Goals Half Time Goals Match Shots Match Shots on Target Match Fouls Match Corners Booking Points BTTS
The following is a screen Shot of the stats and actual results from the 2nd game of the season Arsenal v Notts Forest
Arsenal v Notts Forest Sat 12 Aug 2023
The data on the left is collated from all the games Arsenal played at home in the premiership in the season 22/23 and all the games Notts Forest played away in the season The figures on the right are the actual stats from the game played. As you can see the predictions were right on all counts save total shots and the BTTS predictions.
The following games were played that first league week Burnley v Manchester City – No Data
Arsenal v Nott’m Forest – As Above
Bournemouth v West Ham
Bournemouth v West Ham Sat 12 Aug 23
Brighton v Luton – No Data
Sheffield Utd v Crystal Palace – No Data
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Newcastle Utd v Aston Villa Sat 12 Aug 23
Brentford V Tottenham
Brentford v Tottenham Sun 13 Aug 23
Chelsea v Liverpool
Chelsea v Liverpool Sun 13 Aug 23
Man Utd v Wolves
Man Utd v Wolves Mon 14 Aug 23
As you can see from the above screenshots there was just one match which was a winner with all selections coming in.
Nott’m Forest v Sheffield Utd – No Data
Fulham v Brentford – 0-3
Fulham v Brentford Sat 19 Aug 23
Liverpool v Bournemouth – 3-1
Liverpool v Bournemouth Sat 19 Aug 23
Wolves v Brighton – 1-4 Note – The actual corners leg won as the prediction was 8+ ie 8 or more but the bet still lost on the BTTS leg ( I will explain the intricates of the bets below as some bookmakers interpret the wording of bets differently to others)
Wolves v Brighton Sat 19 Aug 23
Tottenham v Man Utd – 2-0
Tottenham v Man Utd Sat 19 Aug 23
Man City v Newcastle Utd – 1-0
Man City v Newcastle Utd Sat 19 Aug 23
Aston Villa v Everton – 4-0
Aston Villa v Everton Sun 20 Aug 23
West Ham v Chelsea – 3-1
West Ham v Chelsea Su 20 Aug 23
Crystal Palace v Arsenal – 0-1
Crystal Palace v Arsenal Mon 21 Aug 23
Luton Town v Burnley – No Data This match was postponed until 3rd Oct 23
Week 2 saw two of our bet builder bets winning but we are regularly being let down by the BTTS selection but I am getting a degree of success with this workbook when I back test Week 3 saw another two builda bets coming in Bournemouth v Tottenham and Newcastle v Liverpool with 2 more being let down by the BTTS leg.
What odds can you expect to get with these bets? That depends on the bookmakers who are willing to price these bets up! You can request these bets via the twitter (or X as it is now known) by using the individual betting sites hash tag address and I found that if you sent your request to them with all of the bookies hash tags in the message then whether or not they thought they might be in competition with each other the odds tended to come back slightly better. The following was one such bet I requested for the Leicester City v West Brom game on 20th April
Typical request a bet post
I got a quick response from Coral with favourable odds of 7/1 (8.0) I also got a message from SkyBet saying that I could build this bet on there platform but this was not strictly true as they didn’t offer some of the legs that I requested. But it is always wise to shop around.
This bet lost 🙄 on the corners leg as I requested a price on the Over 10.5 instead of 10+ market If I had worded this as “10+ Corners” it would have won!!! as there was exactly 10 corners in the match
Lastly I will provide this work in Progess worksheet for you to backtest the entire season if you wish however the 3 promoted sides last season – Burnley, Luton and Sheffield Utd will have no data for the 22/23 season
The Racing Post, a respected and some would say a vital part of British and Irish racing. The content of the paper and on line version of the only real guide to days racing is second to none but should we do our own research or just back the runners that are in BOLD in the race preview that can be found on many betting sites. I think that the Racing Post has a reputation to uphold so why would bookmakers willingly put the racing post preview at the head of the race page. Sceptical attitudes may say that if the bookies are willingly publishing these views by “Verdict” from the racing post then statistically they (the bookies) will win over all. Todays meetings come from Bellowstown, Kempton, Doncaster, Uttoxeter, Stratford, and Chelmsford City.
Looking for Level Stakes profit to £1.00 stake for all races Lets see how they get on.
First meeting in order of timing today is Bellewstown 13:20 Fast Tara (Abandoned) 13:55 Master Garvey (Abandoned) 14:30 Ten to Ten (Abandoned) 15:05 Escapingthejungle (Abandoned) 15:40 Tawaazon (Nap) (Abandoned) 16:15 Theonewedreamof (Abandoned) 16:50 Star Kissed (Abandoned)
Kempton Meeting starts at 13:30 13:30 Burgar LOST 14:05 Phantom Flight LOST 14:40 Brains LOST 15:15 Aztec Empire (Nap) LOST 15:50 Fix You 16:25 Cuban Breeze 17:00 Simply Sondheim
Doncaster next and the first race goes off at 13:50 13:50 Valadero LOST 14:25 Dirtyoldtown LOST 15:00 Asjad LOST 15:35 Awaal (Nap) 16:10 Poker Face 16:45 Ribal 17:20 Aldbourne 17:50 Aone Ally
Uttoxeter 14:10 Tonto Foley LOST 14:45 Sporting Ace LOST 15:20 Corey’s Courage LOST 15:55 Blackjack Magic 16:30 Gold Emery 17:05 Had to be Hugo (Nap) 17:35 Mistral Milly
The final meeting of the afternoon is from Stratford 14:17 Beau Balko LOST 14:52 The Grey Falco (Nap) LOST 15:27 Weebil LOST 16:02 Lamanver Bel Ami 16:37 Go Steady 17:12 Banteer
The sole evening meeting is from Chelmsford City and first race goes off at 17:30. 17:30 Vitralite 18:00 Boasty 18:30 Prenup (Nap) 19:00 Iconic Moment 19:30 Beyond Equal 20:00 Pending Appeal 20:30 Heath Rise
I have annotated the Nap selections for each meetings but will list them again here Bellowstown 15:40 Tawaazon (Nap) Kempton 15:15 Aztec Empire (Nap) Doncaster 15:35 Awaal (Nap) Uttoxeter 17:05 Had to be Hugo (Nap) Stratford 14:52 The Grey Falco (Nap) Chelmsford 18:30 Prenup (Nap)
Continuing my analysis of backing the favourite to earn a free bet if placed I should include Monday and Tuesdays results. Mondays races started with the 13:45 at Lingfield and the favourite when I backed the horse at 10:28 that morning was Hiromichi
The second race was from Wincanton and again when I placed the bet The Kings Writ was favourite at odds of 4.33. He failed to place coming in 4th of 8.
Total profit for Monday was £12.50 taking the total tally to £55.00 and a free bet of £5.00 which I used on the Austria v Estonia Euro Qualifying game as a Correct Score bet on 2-1 This also Won taking the total profit upto Monday night to £95.00
Tuesday First race was Huntingdon at 14:30 and I Backed Keplerian at odds of 4.33(fav at the time) This was a Non Runner and as I had already made a cash bet on this race I am not entirely sure if a subsequent bet would qualify for the promotion but it was the favourite Master Malcolm that won at odds of 3/1
The second promotional race from #virginbet was the 15:45 at Hexham where I backed the favourite Lewa House at odds of 3.25. Lewa House placed giving me a £5.00 free bet.
Total loss for Tuesday £5.00 but a £5.00 free bet gained Total Tally so far Profit of £90.00 plus a new free bet to play with.
13:30 at Newbury saw Inneston start as favourite at 9/4. Unfortunately he could only manage 2nd. I got my fiver back as promised no loss or profit.
Next up was the 14:05 again at Newbury where Heltenham started 7/2 jt Fav after some elephant racing with the odds for Espoir De Guye and fellow jt Fav Super Six. Having backed Heltenham earlier in the morning I also got BOG which returned £22.50 netting £17.50 profit. Finally the 15:35 at Kelso saw Forward Plan which I backed as favourite earlier in the day at odds of 11/4 was backed out of favouritism by Half Shot started at 4/1 but could only manage 3rd place earning me a £5.00 free bet
Total Profit for Friday and Saturday £42.50 plus a £5.00 free bet on #VirginBet and a £5.00 refunded stake from #SkyBet.
SkyBet offer a similar promotion to virginBet where they offer CASH back instead of a freebet if your chosen horse places 2nd or 3rd. Todays race is 13:30 at Newbury and is never the same race as virginbet offer so you cant hedge your bet to try and catch the race with 2 runners. Todays race is a Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f and they dont offer BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) Using stats from Adrian Masseys website the following can be assumed to be true as he is meticulous when he complies his stats. From 2003 to 2022 there were 17720 handicap hurdle races run in Great Britain of these just 29% of favourites won and 57% placed. Newbury has hosted 281 handicap hurdle races where just 28% of favourites won and 55% placed giving a slightly less chance here of the favourite either winning or placing here as opposed to the overall chance of 86% It looks like SkyBet have chosen their race well in that they have a 72% chance of the favourite not winning. That being said however there is a statistical chance of you either winning or getting your cash back of 83%
I have backed the favourite Inneston at odds of 3.25 for a fiver
Betornot 