Todays “Back to Lay” Bet 1 Thursday

Friend or Foe

The first Back to Lay selection today is Friend or Foe running in the 14:00 at Warwick. I have backed it at for £3.38 (my origional stake plus profit from yesterday) at odds of 2.92 as the odds were falling but it seems I was a bit premature as the market has drifted out a bit to 3.05 as I write this. My lay order of £3.80 at a 15 tick drop to 2.62 probably wont get matched before the off but I am hopeful that the traders will help me out as the race gets under way. Having just watched his debut into chase racing on the 1st May this year , he was content to sit at second until about the 3rd from home where Briony Frost let him have his head and motored to victory, winning by nearly 5 lengths. His last outing as a hurdler was on heavy ground at Wincanton and he didn’t fare too well finishing 4th out of 5 finishers in the Betway Kingwell Hurdle on the 20th February 70 days previous . Making heavy work out of the heavy going it is plain that the going today at Warwick should suit him as the distance of 2m and good going seem to agree with him. Harry Cobden rides him today instead of Briony Frost but has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 rides. His other ride on Friend or Foe was on the 23 march 2019 where he came 10th over a bigger distance of 2m3f. At the 2 mile point he was just disputing the lead but faded badly after 2nd from home fortifying the desision to run him at 2m or there about to optimise his talent.
With 1 hour to go before the off the market on Friend or Foe is static at about 3.05-3.10
For more Back to lay selections and other in running trading opportunities a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by clicking the link below.

In-Running Trading Tool

Sportinglife July NAPs Record

Next under the microscope in regards to their best bets of the day (NAP) is Sporting Life. Currently running 4th in the Racing Post NAPs Table with a profit score of £14.32 to a £1.00 level stake he/she/they have a long way to go to catch the mighty Templegate from the Sun newspaper but we will see in this post as to whether or not The Sporting Life has made any inroads to that goal. From my previous post regarding Templegates July record we can see that he had a level stakes loss of £11.10, Sporting Life did slightly better with a total loss of just £3.89 gaining on the top spot by £7.21. If we used the 10% staking method on Sporting Lifes NAPs a month of fun would have cost us just £1.97.
Laying these NAPs would have seen a profit but only £1.36 to £2.00 stakes but profit is profit but this could have gone most terribly wrong if a couple more selections had won, especially if Maries Diamond had won on the 3rd with a BSP of 35.02 or Lostwithal on the 9th at a BSP of 20!
As in the previous post I have provided the spreadsheet to download for all of Sporting Lifes NAP picks for July.
Please like and Subscribe for more content as I do more research.

Sporting Life Football Recommended Bets Study 2020

When my Dad took the sporting Life Newspaper when I was a boy all I can remember about it was the pages of Racing and Greyhounds. I dont remember seeing football coverage at all so when the racing post took over and the Sporting Life became a multi sport on-line website the powers that be must have gone down the local bookies and recruited the first punter they saw for their football tipster as the results for 2020 in their recommended football section are dismal!! It is plain as day which end of the office the golfers are propping up. 58.31 point loss on the year makes for a very good time for the bookies. In the months that there was a profit the average was 10.86 points this being bolstered by a November Profit of 34.40 points (Perhaps the footy guys were on holiday and the golfers stepped into the breach) Which ever way you look at this the prospect is gloomy and more could be gained by actually laying these bets at the exchanges.
Anyway as usual I will list their figures below but be warned it is not happy reading.
Jan 6.24 points profit
Feb 5.43 points profit
Mar 5.35 points profit
Apr No Bets
May 7.00 points profit ( Just BundesLiga bets)
Jun 27.79 points Loss
Jul 12.94 points loss
Aug 6.75 point profit
Sep 5.03 point Loss
Oct 49.70 point Loss
Nov 34.40 point profit
Dec 28.02 point Loss

I did think that when I was compiling these figures that the guys had made their recommendations, not taking into consideration the fact that crowd factor makes a difference but it was a steady decline after May.
I did think that these tips might be worth the fun factor but after seeing Junes results I did think BetOrNot!!!

Keep trying lads

Sporting Life Golf recommended bets study for 2020

A somewhat overlooked sport when it comes to tipping is Golf, with very few tipsters on the social networks compared with football and racing. The Sporting Life Golf tipsters are Ben Coley, Matt Cooper, and Jason Daniels and his tips for the whole of 2020 reaped an amazing 375 points profit and that was with no golf being played in April and May due to the Chinese Bat Flu.
When you consider that for the whole of 2020 the total profit for recommended bets across all sports was 275 points the only conclusion that can be made is that the golfers corner is propping up the SL tipsters office. You would think that with such a high profit that the stakes wagered would be quite high and admittedly for Januarys 63 point profit it cost 90 points wagered which isnt a high ROI but on saying that the average recommended stakes per tournament is 13 points making it an affordable (I bet £1.00 per point) and fun betting pastime. Who knows you may even start watching grown men trying to put a small white ball down rabbit holes from half a mile distance.
Here are 2020 profit/ loss results by Month

January 63 points Profit
February 50.16 points Loss
March 143.68 points profit
April No Golf
May No Golf
June 26 points Profit
July 141 point Profit
August 68.36 points Profit
Sept 66.12 Points Profit
Oct 32.78 points Loss
Nov 15.75 points Loss
Dec 34 points Loss
4 losing months from 12 is not bad and as I said 375 points profit over the year.
Just as a quick footnote here are Ben Coleys advised bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic held in Detroit this weekend(183.5 points Profit 😲😲🏌️‍♂️🏌️‍♂️) when everyone was watching Kane creep closer to that Golden Boot award

2.5pts e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 28/1 (William Hill, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Maverick McNealy at 70/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Beau Hossler at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Cameron Davis at 150/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Byeong Hun An at 250/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Davis Thompson at 400/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

C.Davis won after a playoff
J. Niemann tied for second

Not bad for a weekend’s work. This man seems to know his stuff

Simon Holt (Sporting Life Tipster) More In-depth study

Further to my previous blog post about the Sporting Life Recommended bets. Simon Holt (@SimonHolt3) had an outstanding May with his racing tips and this post is just about breaking down the figures into which category of race made the most points profit. His profit to advised odds for May was 41.3 points and was all flat racing tips over various distances and an even spread of handicap and Non-handicap races.
Starting with his Handicap race tips, he tipped horses in a total of 18 handicap races with 5 winning tips (28%) gaining 11.8 points profit at S.P. and 24.5 points profit at Advised Odds. If we drill this down further into race distances his profit was greatest when he tipped horses in 5f sprints, achieving 12 points profit from 2 winners out of 3 tips at advised odds in handicap races and 8.8 points from the same strike rate in Non-Handicap races. The tables below show the races in which he had success and those which failed!!

the whole spreadsheet can be downloaded by clicking the link below