Lay The Draw and Trade out after the First Goal. The Results

The automation files for this trade performed without a hitch and a profit was made even though Manchester City floundered badly losing 2-0 to Crystal Palace.
The lunchtime kick-off was between Leicester City and Arsenal and as we lunched at the Greyhound Inn at Milton Malsor, Arsenal scored in the 5th minute. At 12:36 Betangel detected the goal and duly placed a back bet into the draw market 25 miles away from where I was tucking into my Gammon Egg and Chips and the first trade was settled for a profit of £1.28 whatever the outcome of the game after 90 mins.

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Click pic to enlarge in a new window

The two screenshots above show, firstly, how the bets were placed and secondly the timings, stake, market and odds of each lay and back bets. Nothing in the research predicted the outcome of this match apart from there being at least 1 goal scored which was enough as soccer mystic indicated that which ever side scored first we would see a profitable trade being made.
The second researched game was the Burnley v Brentford game at 3pm. As mentioned in the research there were no previous meetings of these two sides so it all came down to this seasons form in the goals department and again the research bore no resemblance to the actual match played as Burnley opened the scoring after 4 minutes.

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Click Pic to enlarge in a new window

£2.10 was the profit taken from this trade but whether it was a VAR factor or a betfair operative going to sleep the market did not become unsuspended for 5 minutes after a somewhat confusing 11 minutes of the game kicking off either way a goal caused the market to move in our favour and a successful trade was executed 11 minutes after the official time of the goal.

Early goals seemed to be the trend yesterday as Liverpool opened their account with a 4th Minute goal from Henderson creating a £4.05 profit for us. 2 minutes after the goal went in the odds of the draw had risen to 12.0 and Betangel duly placed a back bet into the market of £5.83 which was matched 6 minutes and 36 seconds

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Click pic to enlarge in a new window

Total profit so far £7.43

The only losing trade was the Manchester City v Crystal Palace fixture, where, after 6 minutes the second worst thing after a goalless match happened, Crystal Palace scored!! The resulting back bet placed, unemotionally, by betangel made a £9.09 LOSS. This was a slightly better outcome than the scenario projected by Soccer Mystic of a £10.74 loss after a Crystal Palace first goal but at least the bookies are opening the Bolanger this morning.

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Click pic to enlarge in a new window

In contrast to the other games so far it took Chelsea 65 minutes to score the first goal in this game and this gave us the largest profit of the day after backing the draw at odds of 9.4. This made the trade profit at £5.01. I am beginingg to wonder if this is fun or heart failure provoking 🤣.

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Click pic to enlarge in a new window

Che Adams opened the scoring in the Watford v Southampton game 10 minutes after our research suggested. This resulted in our trade making £2.69 profit and as the half time whistles echoed around the grounds we were £1.03 in profit.

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Click pic to enlarge in a new window

Total profit for all researched matches after Chelsea’s 65th Minute Goal came to £6.04
It would be unfair for me not to point out that Laying the draw on the five 3pm games at a stake of £10.00 would need a betfair balance of £250.00.

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Todays DOB of the Day Friday 10 Sept

Todays DOB of the Day is Makinitup running at Sandown this afternoon in the 15:35.
Making the criteria easily this 3 yr old filly has raced 3 times winning twice. This is the first Handicap she has raced in but it seems that she is in the very capable hands of Cameron Noble as Timeform have posted this in their “Specific Pace Notes” –
“Hold-up horses normally aren’t favoured at this trip here and the pace forecast suggests MAKINITUP (IRE) should still be better placed than AREEHAA (IRE) to take advantage.”
A slight negative to this is that she is yet to run over good ground competitively and the market should be watched nearer post time to see where the money is going.
I however have thrown caution to the wind and Backed her at odds of 4.3 and placed my lay order into the market at odds of 2.13

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As you can see her forecast odds are 3.25 so I am hoping that the market will come in closer to post time shortening the gap to my lay order. If you look closely at the image above you can see that as the pace note say Areehaa might well run from the front but is perhaps unable to sustain this as her DOB rate is just 50% and in actual fact she has drifted slightly in the market in response to money going onto Pearl bay who has been backed into 6.2 from about 6.8 a few minutes ago.
There is now just 40 minutes to post time and I apologise for the lateness of the post but I had a Puncture last Night putting me about 3 hours behind – Fridays!!!

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A 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool is available by clicking the link below but be mindful to use it well as 7 days goes very quick when your selections are winning but you are just watching

The In-Running Trading Tool

DOB of the Day – Thursday (9 sept)

Yesterday was another successful trade with Anmaat winning makes that £10.00 profit less a bit of commission. Today there were 2 possibles but Kawida in the 14:40 at Doncaster is now a non runner, leaving Free Wind in the race after at 15:15
To remind you of the criteria

  • DOB rate of over 85% average for all races
  • Short in running figure zero or greater
  • A “DOB return” of over £25.00
  • Forecast odds between 3.0 and 20
  • A “Runstyle” of 1 or 2

Todays selection meets all of these conditions. Early this morning I backed it on the exchange at odds of 3.85 and subsequently put my lay bet order in as soon as the back bet was matched. (I should point out at this stage that there was a significant gap between the back odds and the lay odds (3.4 to back and 3.9 to lay) so I simply asked for a £5.00 back bet at 3.85 this was matched quite quickly so it is well worth NOT taking the back odds as is, and trying for a bit more. By doing this I have gained 9 ticks, not much I know but every little helps.
At some point in the morning Glenartny was withdrawn at odds of about 15.00 so the rule 4 was invoked and now my back odds are 3.6 and Betfair has automatically adjusted my lay bet so no harm done. All that been said there are a couple of points to fortify the decision to Dob this horse.
In its previous race (which is not shown in the In-Running Trading Tool) Free Wind was ridden by Frankie Dettori in Deauville to victory over a mile and a half in August beating the favourite by 1 and a half lengths showing that there is a horse/jockey connection to todays race as Dettori hadn’t ridden Free Wind before.

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In-Running Trading Tool

DOBbing the 5 highest priced tipped horses using the In-Running Trading Tool

“Dobbing” or backing to lay a horse to double your money or bust your bank is a popular technique for making profitable trades out of losing bigger-priced horses. The knack however is picking the right horses in the right races
The “In-Running Trading Tool” has an excellent page that outlines potential horses that could trade at half the B.S.P.
For a trade to successfully “DOB” the In-Play Low must reach half the B.S.P. – or half the price you backed the horse at if you got a bigger price (or lower) before the off for instance:
If you backed a horse on the exchange at odds of 11.00 (10/1) for £10 you would need to place a lay bet order of £20 at odds of 5.5
The In-Running Trading Tool gives some useful advice and provides all the information required to make an informed decision.
Dobbing short-priced horses is possible if the odds are above evens but the price needed to lay a horse that you backed at odds of 2.5 (6/4) would need to trade in-play at a low of 1.25 (4/1 ON!)
Backing higher priced front running horses can be a better option but sorting through the information provided can quickly become confusing and cause mistakes to be made.
To this end I have done a little record keeping and have analysed the top priced top tipped horses which are easily found on the Horseracing.net website on the tips page
On 1st September using the criteria outlined on the In-Running Trading Tool there was just 1 contender
15:50 Uttoxeter; Ship of the Fen
This horse had a B.S.P. of 10 and traded in-play at a low of 4.0 easily passing the 5.0 lay bet order. Thats 1 out of 1
Horseracing.net actuall lists 5 horses in the highest priced tipped horses and the other 4 faired as follows even though they did not meet the In-Running Trading Tool Criteria
15:05 Gowran Park; No Show
B.S.P. 10 In-play Low 3.75 DOB – Yes
15:30 Lingfield Park; Dourado
B.S.P. 26.83 In-play Low 7.0 DOB – Yes
15:30 Lingfield Park; Smart Qibili
B.S.P. 140.0 In-play Low 120 DOB – No
16:20 Uttoxeter; Begoodtoyourslf
B.S.P. 6.73 In-Play low 7.2 DOB – No

If we had Dobbed all of the 5 selections we would have been in profit (3 out of 5)
Just as a footnote to these 5 horses No Show also ran the day after and won carrying a 3lb penalty!!

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In-running Trading Tool

In Running Trading Tool “Back to Lay” with Top Tipped Horses – A Quick Summary

Saturday saw the start of a system that has shown promise, where frustration reigned in regards to well-tipped, short-priced favourites not producing winning performances. When I say Saturday I really mean that I had a 20-20 hindsight day for Friday where I had the fortune of being able to see the results as I mashed the criteria.
As you would expect, I got a 100% win rate – who wouldn’t.
The two horses concerned were Love is Golden and Jumbly
Jumbly won its race but Love is Golden definitely did not but both were low “in-play traders” making it possible to create a small profit from both runners instead of a level stake loss!
Applying the same criteria to Saturdays Top Tipped Horses I got 3 horses
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock
Loves Me Likearock won its race but the other 2 failed – miserably!
However, all three managed at least a 15 tick in play drop from their B.S.P. making the tally so far 5 out of 5 with three of the top tipped selections losing their race
Happy days so far then
Sunday gave up just 2 selections
14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips)
14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)
Minella Trump won and a B.S.P. of 1.72 soon passed the 15 tick mark after climbing to an in-play high of 2.34 the half length that it won by might have had me twitching a bit if I had been watching but a win is a win. Bigbadmattie on the other hand, despite being quite heavily tipped was not favourite and went off at a B.S.P. of 3.4 and according to Timeform traded in-play at a low of 3.2. this is just 4 ticks. However! I actually backed and laid this race and horse and my lay bet of 2.8 was matched during the race

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I am going to take this as a winner for the system – It would/might have not been totally matched if the bet was more than a tenner
7 from 7 for me and only 3 from 7 as regards to outright winners from the experts.
On to today and there is just one selection that meets the criteria
14:10 Newton Abbott; Kilmington Rose
A race of just 3 runners and I have just backed it at 1.64! This will have to trade as low as 1.49 for a 15 tick drop

Please take a look at my other posts regarding this system if you want to learn more and a 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by Clicking the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections

With a 100% success yesterday the selections for this study as determined by the criteria defined on In Running Trading Tool website are as follows

  1. Viking Ruby 13:35 Worcester
  2. Affable 15:30 Naas
  3. Beyond Equal 17:20 Sandown

Viking Ruby has a forecast B.S.P of 13.00 and a “Short In Running” return of £17.00. A win rate percentage of 15.79% put it just within the parameters required
Affable has the biggest win rate percentage of 23.53% and a forecast B.S.P. of just 6.00. “Short In Running” returns are £3.50 and an average “Tick Drop” of 94!
Beyond Equal with a forecast B.S.P. of 11.00 and a profitable “Short In Running” figure of £3.50 as well as a 20% win rate percentage
As yesterday the complete form, previous B.S.P and in play low prices along with average race style and a host of other information is availale in the form of a spreadsheet that you can download from the link below.

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

Trading a Horse at 15 tick drop in-play

Of the many betting systems I have encountered in my quest for the “perfect retirement plan” the laying of horses at a shorter price than which you backed it at, is a common and often fatal “get rich quick” scheme many punters regret hearing about. But what if someone has put a lot of time and effort into finding runners that meet certain criteria and don’t actually kick the arse out of finding life changing profit, this might be a low risk opportunity to make your own little niche in the vast minefield that is trading horseracing. The someone I am talking about is a website called “In Running Trading Tool” and they have several schemes detailed on the site where you can use their stats to drill down to specific runners which stand every chance of fulfilling your expectations. To this end I am going to start yet another study into one of the systems listed and post my findings here on Bet-Or-Not so that you can Bet Or Not.
Before I get into the nuts and bolts of the system it may be worth explaining just what a “tick” is in terms of trading trading on the betting exchanges.
The odds on the exchanges (and bookmakers sites) are graduated and displayed as a decimal starting with 1.01 which equates to 1/1000 or “a thousand to one on” meaning bet £1000 to win a quid to 1000.00 which is 1000/1 or “bet a quid to win a thousand”. the graduations between these two extremes are known as ticks. Just to confuse matters further not all ticks are the same. For instance, 10 ticks above the odds of 1.01 are 1.1 (1/100), 10 ticks down from 1000.00 the odds are 950.00. So you can see that the closer you get to a 99.9% probability the closer the ticks are graduated. So if we are looking to lay a horse 15 ticks below the price we backed it at an odds on fav has to do a lot more work in terms of persuading the markets that it is going to win than a 100/1 ouside that perhaps just has to take the lead for a furlong to entice the markets to drop to 70/1 which is 15 ticks below. Its still not going to win but we will have taken our profit long before the finishing line. The all encompassing secret to this is identifying which runners are more likely to impress traders enough to warrant them backing the horse as it runs through the race.
The first thing that springs to mind is a “front runner” this is a horse that takes up the lead in a race and gives the impression that it has something to offer. While this can work sometimes I have just watched Every Breaking Wave lead from start to finish but only “DOBBED” at the last fence as the favourite chased him down. (Dobbing is another strategy where you back a horse at odds and lay it at odds whereby you double your money or lose the lot, hence the term Double Or Bust – another system for another study)
What the poeple at “In Running Trading” have done is narrow such runners down to starting prices, win percentages, and if the horse has been profitable in the past. With this work already done I can now settle down with this criteria and produce to you some profit and loss figures. On first look at this in a mid week race cards it seem that there are only going to be between 2 and 4 selections each day.
The criteria outlined on the website for this particular study are as follows

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5

The screenshot above shows how you should have the “short in Running” Tab set up and you can see that there is one selection showing in the shot, Robin Des Foret running at Killarney at 16:35. The forecast odds are 13.00 which is well within the parameters. Its win strike rate is 26.67% and it has a short in run return of £57.00
In actual fact there are 4 selections for today and with this website you can export specific selections into an excel spreadsheet which contains the whole history of each horse including previous race prices and in play lows as well as the tick drop count for each race and a host of other information too vast to list in this post
To this end I have exported todays selections and provided the spreadsheet for you to download

Check back later or do your own study to see how these runners faired and what profit is possible



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