With Wimbledon just around the corner I thought it might be interesting to explore the possibility of dutching the set betting market for the WTA as there is only 4 possible outcomes and using betangel’s dutching tool I can place orders into the market to ensure a 20% or better return on a £10 total stake.
The french Open is currently at the 4th round stage in the WTA competition and there are just 4 matches today (Sunday 4th June 2023)
The risk to reward on this is quite high depending on the odds offered. anything from a 50% risk up to a mighty 80% risk.
In this exercise I will be placing the margin stake onto the favourites 2-0 score
Match 1 Pavlyuchenkova v Mertens
This is an evenly matched match where both players are at around even money to win the match.
The screen shot below shows the bets placed
As you can see I have put the margin stake onto Mertens 2-0 scoreline at odds of 11
This is a massive risk to reward scenario as I am risking nearly 89% of my £10.00 stake for a 25% return. One of the factors that has helped me make this decision is that I have downloaded all the results from the previous 3 WTA French Opens into a spreadsheet and filtered the results into following criteria.
1. Winners price at the start of the match is between 1.90 and 2.10
2. 2-0 set result
3. 4th round matches only
Having filtered these factors the resulting percentage of matches that ended 2-0 are just 3 from a total of 24 4th round matches – just 12.5%
If we drill this down even further to include ALL matches that ended 2-0 where the winners odds were between 1.9 and 2.1 we find that from 381 WTA French Open matches that have been played in the previous 3 years there was just 20 that is just over 5%
What we also have to remember is that we are only interested in the odds selected for movement only need to move so far in order to be matched. In close matches such as this a first set score of 5-5 could be enough to convince the market that the match could go to 3 sets.
As I said there are four 4th round matches today and the next one is between Muchiva and El Avanesyan
Muchova is odds on favourite to win at odds of 1.27
In this dutching trade I am risking 53% of my stake for a 25% return
While the risk to reward is much less than the previous match if we look at the spreadsheet and input the same figures in relation to this match ie where the Winning favourite was between 1.25 and 1.3 there was just 1 (one) match in the fourth round that ended 2-0 and just 21 out of all 381 French Open Matches from the previous 3 years.
The 3rd match of the day is between Svitolina and Kasatkina. Kasatkina is favourite at odds of 1.66 to win the match
The final match today is Stephens v Sabalenka where Sabalenka is 1.25 to win the match
With all dutch trades in place I will post the logs and final tally tomorrow
My Maximum loss for these four trades should they all lose is £27.39 out of £40.00
My Maximum Profit is £10.17
This signifies a 37% reward to risk factor but considering the very basic research I explored I am hopeful for a 75% strike rate
Betornot 