Author Archives: shakey775

Fridays “Back to Lay” Selection for the second race at Fontwell

Pasvolsky

End of the working week for me and an empty house means a fun filled afternoon with the horses. First on my list today is Pasvolsky in the 13:35 at Fontwell. This is a slightly longer race today that he is used to running but watching previous races he has been a front runner. I have backed him at 5.3 with, like yesterday, original stake plus profits which amount’s to £3.79 a 15 tick drop lay order has been made for £5.18 at odds of 3.9.
With just an hour to go the odds have come into 4.8 giving me a 5 tick head start.
With the exception of his last run at Sandown on 24 April with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle Pasvolsky has Won or Placed under Tom Cannon on good or good to soft going over hurdles and won one and placed in his other NHF race.
Now at 4.7 (12:50pm) things could go well in this race.
The “In-Running Trading Tool” form table is below and clearly shows his front running form and particular notice should be taken of his in-play exchange prices

Click pic to open in a new tab

His short in run returns are in red figures and this marrys with his fading off in the races in which he placed or lost.
For this and other in play strategies a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool is available by clicking the link Below

In-Running Trading Tool

Todays “Back to Lay” Bet 1 Thursday

Friend or Foe

The first Back to Lay selection today is Friend or Foe running in the 14:00 at Warwick. I have backed it at for £3.38 (my origional stake plus profit from yesterday) at odds of 2.92 as the odds were falling but it seems I was a bit premature as the market has drifted out a bit to 3.05 as I write this. My lay order of £3.80 at a 15 tick drop to 2.62 probably wont get matched before the off but I am hopeful that the traders will help me out as the race gets under way. Having just watched his debut into chase racing on the 1st May this year , he was content to sit at second until about the 3rd from home where Briony Frost let him have his head and motored to victory, winning by nearly 5 lengths. His last outing as a hurdler was on heavy ground at Wincanton and he didn’t fare too well finishing 4th out of 5 finishers in the Betway Kingwell Hurdle on the 20th February 70 days previous . Making heavy work out of the heavy going it is plain that the going today at Warwick should suit him as the distance of 2m and good going seem to agree with him. Harry Cobden rides him today instead of Briony Frost but has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 rides. His other ride on Friend or Foe was on the 23 march 2019 where he came 10th over a bigger distance of 2m3f. At the 2 mile point he was just disputing the lead but faded badly after 2nd from home fortifying the desision to run him at 2m or there about to optimise his talent.
With 1 hour to go before the off the market on Friend or Foe is static at about 3.05-3.10
For more Back to lay selections and other in running trading opportunities a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by clicking the link below.

In-Running Trading Tool

Todays Best Back to Lay bet of the Day

Not much time to get onto this as todays Back to Lay bet runs at 13:40 at Bangor on Dee.
Robin Des Theatre has a 25% win rate from 4 races on at 1m7f and 3 at 2m. This horse likes to lead from the front and has an average betfair tick drop of 106. Its highest BSP was 11.5 and dropped a total of 22 ticks to a in-play low of 6.2. This was its last time out at Newcastle over 2 miles on 20 march this year. Todays jockey, Brendan Powell rode it to victory in another Newcastle hurdle over 2 miles 21 days previous to that. Todays race is a 2m 1f Handicap Chase, a first for this horse but the market seems confident in the final 2 hours to post time as I backed it at odds of 16.00 and I am looking for a 15 tick drop to 9.4 to lay. With just 50 minutes to post time the market has shortened to 11.5.

Robin Des Theatre Market Graph

The screenshot above shows the steady shift downwards and how close to my Lay order the odds got as it dipped to below 10.0 about an hour before the off.

This selection was made with the help of the In-Running Trading Tool which a free trial can be obtained by clicking the link below

In-Running Trading Tool