Author Archives: shakey775

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3

With a 100% strike rate can this system make it 3 days in a row. Sundays are notoriously frustrating in the tipsters department – perhaps it is the drowning of their sorrows after yet another week of failed NAPs and felled favourites or just ashamed to show their faces but there never seems to be the same amount of tips submitted on Sundays. That being said when they band together in splendid isolation it seems that sometimes they know something. Yesterdays crop of 10 most tipped horses managed a win strike percentage of 60% but more importantly they ALL traded in play 15 ticks below their B.S.P. Admittedly the returns on these trades are minimal and just 1 failed trade would wipe out the days profit, but if we were to lay the trade at the same odds but with just a covering stake if the horse went on to win – which 7 did on Friday and 6 yesterday – the maths changes significantly. For Instance
The first horse in the list yesterday was Barn Owl which went of at a BSP of 3.05 and won
If we had laid to an equal profit at 15 ticks the lay stake would have been £11.30 at odd of 2.72 if we had backed it at £10.00 we would have come away with a £1.07 profit if the horse won or lost.
Alternatively if we had Underlaid with a lay stake of £10.20 if the horse won (which it did) the profit rises to £2.96 but breaks even if the horse loses, winning or losing nothing. Something to think about if this study pans out to be a viable system.
Anyway yesterdays full results are as follows

HorseMeetingTimeTipsBSPi-p low15 tick oddsResult
Barn OwlBeverley14:0583.051.012.721st
ManaccanNewmarket14:1082.391.012.081st
GladiatorialCartmel14:5091.651.011.51st
NaganoGoodwood15:00101.751.091.62nd
AquamanNewmarket15:2092.632.32.323rd
Live Your DreamNewmarket15:5591.991.821.844th
FireworksBeverley17:00121.161.011.011st
Bellstreet BridieRedcar17:40102.421.62.122nd
AlqamarCartmel17:50102.681.012.381st
Solid StoneWindsor18:3093.661.012.961st

Totays top tipped horses are provided below as a spreadsheet exported from In Running Trading Tool and lists the runners, previous form, previous BSP and in-play lows, running style, and a whole host of other information.
Simply click download to have this information at your fingertips

top-tipped-29aug2021Download

Also provided to help you determine the 15 tick drop needed I provide my own Tick drop calculator
To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.

betfair-tick-counterDownload

To get the previous 2 blogs on this study click the link below

Yesterdays Post

It will open in a new window for your convenience.

To get a free 7 day trial of the information that is provided by In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further

Due to my workload this past week I have been unable to carry on my study of the 15 tick “system” but yesterday when I was going back through my bets of the “most Tipped horses” it struck me that even though most of the bets were just over evens or odds on there were too many losers! What if I employed the 15 tick system to all of the highly tipped horses. So without further ado I listed the 10 most tipped horses of the day and exported thier form from the “InRunning Trading Tool” website into the spreadsheet I have provided below

top-tipped-27aug2021Download

Of these 10 horses 4 of them did not win (Alhezabr later being dropped to 2nd place in a stewards enquiry) but ALL of them traded at at least 15 ticks below their B.S.P making a 100% strike rate.

HorseMeetingTimeTipsBSPi-p low15 tick oddsresult
Silk RomanceNewmarket13:10111.751.011.61st
Razzle DazzleNewmarket14:2091.951.011.81st
Percy’s PrideFfos Las15:05101.421.011.271st
AlhezabrFfos Las15:40102.041.081.872nd
AsjadFfos Las16:10131.791.121.642nd
Kentucky RoseHamilton16:3593.921.13.142nd
Thunder LegendHamilton17:10111.671.011.521st
Sweet BelieverHamilton18:10121.831.011.681st
Country PyleGoodwood18:23142.681.132.323rd
MahrajaanHamilton18:40102.441.012.141st

As you can see from the table above the 2 most tipped horses Country Pyle (14 tips) and Asjad (13 tips) managed just 3rd and 2nd respectively, but easily managed to impress the traders enough in running to bring the price down to very low odds indeed!
I have produced a spreadsheet to help me determine the odds at which a 15 tick drop lay bet should be placed in relation to the B.S.P. or the actual odds that was available anytime before the off. This is also available for download below

betfair-tick-counterDownload

To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
I have also provided todays 10 most tipped horses exported from Inrunning Trading Tool spreadsheet for your perusal you can download this by clicking down load below



top-tipped-28aug2021Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections (Monday 23rd Aug 2021)

Using the same criteria even though one runner yesterday went out of scope on the B.S.P. there are two probable selections for today
Just to remind you of the criteria

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5


The first is Café Sydney in the 15:15 at Brighton. With a win rate percentage of 16.67 and a forecasted B.S.P. of 13.00 Mollie Phillips has piloted this horse to a 65 tick drop at Leicester last time out and a massive 193 tick drop at its last time running here at Brighton. I think that it is worth mentioning the “Race style” column on the spreadsheet. This is represented by the numbers 1-4 with 1 being a front runner and 4 liking the veiw of the other horses arses! The average race style of Cafe Sydney is 3 but in its last 7 Runnings 3 of which it won, albeit on the all weather, the actual race style was 4 and only once did it not meet the 15 tick drop threshold and that was at Windsor on soft ground. This suggests that it likes other horses to make the running and then break from behind but doesn’t like soft going. With the going at Brighton this afternoon being good, hopes are high for this one.
The second selection on the list is Ballon Onabudget (who thinks these names up?) which has a forecasted B.S.P. of just 3.50 and looking at the betting markets is currently 3rd fav at 4.5 at SkyBet. A winrate % of 20.05% and running over 2 miles today instead of its usual 3ish miles (its last 9 outings have been between 2m6f and 3m2f. Its average race style is actually 3 but the last twice it ran over todays distance it was 2 hinting that at the shorter distance it likes to be in touch with the leader in the hopes of making that final break for it near the end. With only 5 runners in the race today I think that on previous form and with Johnathan Burke on board we may have a 1-2 clean up today lets face it I need it after yesterday.
As I have done previously I have provided the spreadsheet detailing these two runners form, race styles and starting odds etc. for download by clicking the link below

inrunningtradingtool-26Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Sundays Results

Hi All
I will get straight into the results so I can post todays selections in my next post
Yesterday there were 3 possible selections for the 15 tick drop strategy all at different racecourses
The first on the list was Viking Ruby running at Worcester in the 13:35, Far from being favourite it went off at odds of 24.9 on Betfair and the in-play low price got to 8.4 before the traders gave up. Although this B.S.P. is out of our scope it is worth logging as these rules are not set in stone and I can adjust them as more results play out. The 15 tick drop price would have been 15.00 so this would have been a complete success giving a healthy £6.02 profit after Commission had been deducted
Middle for Diddle was Affable running in the 15:30 at Naas. A healthy in scope B.S.P. of 11.00 rose to an in-play low of 15.00 which means that the jockey must have put the damned horse in reverse at the start losing £10.00 into the bargain.
Lastly, and fortunately a placed horse Beyond Equal started with a healthy in scope B.S.P. of 9.40 dropped to an in-play low of just 2.00 which easily met our 15 tick target of 6.4 and after betfair commission has been paid I was left with £4.18 profit.
In summary then with one runner out of scope I lost £5.82 on day 1 to £10.00 stakes
No one can accuse me of waiting until I had a winning day to start my study.

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

DOBbing or “Double or Bust” your Bet.

Similar to trading a 15 tick drop, this system allows the trade to trading price to drop to 50% of the back price and lay at double the stake. for instance if you back a horse at 10/1 (11.00) for £10.00 to double your stake you would need to lay the horse in running at odds of 9/2 (5.50) at a stake of £20.00! The calculation is as follows
Back £10.00 @ 11.00 returns a £100.00 profit (£10 stake x 11.00 Odds – £10 stake = £100) if the horse wins, -£10.00 if it loses
Lay £20.00 @ 5.50 will give a loss of £90 (£20.00 stake x 5.5 odds – £20.00 stake) if the horse wins, £20.00 profit if it loses.
So if the horse wins we win £10.00 (£100 – £90) and if the horse loses we win £10.00 (£20 – £10) There would also be a commission to pay at what ever rate betfair charge you on your account, in my case it is 2% so I would be left with a £9.80 profit. and its doesn’t matter if the horse wins or loses.
This part is simple enough the hard part is finding suitable horses in which this strategy has a greater chance of happening than others. Every horse that wins, DOBs this is a fact! so you might be excused to think that if you DOB all favourites then you should be in profit but the figures for all outright favourites winning in 2020 was just over 35% and some of the other 65% of losers would undoubtedly have DOBbed but we are looking for a more cast iron way of picking suitable runners. This is where the nice people at “In Running Trading Tool” website come in.
In their “simple DOB strategy they recommend the following criteria

  • Eliminate all horses that have a DOB% rate of 84.99% or less
  • Eliminate all horses that have a “ShortinRunning” figure that is a negative
  • There is no criteria mentioned for forecast odds or win% rate.
Click the picture to make it bigger

As you can see from the screen shot above there are only 2 suitable selections for today and while the picture is not as clear as I would like I have also “Expanded” the stats for each runner to show their BSP and in-play low prices for all of their previous races to try and get a feel for the prices involved and how they ran

Click the picture to make it Bigger

I have zoomed in on the first runner to try and make it a bit clearer so you can see that Sol Del Mar hasn’t looked like winning in all three of its previous races coming 17th, 11th, and 10th. It is however ridden by Conor Hoban who, in his 2 previous rides convinced the traders to back him in running to low prices of 8.00 and 16.00 from B.S.P.s of 80.52 and 471.69 respectively.
With these facts in the back of my mind I am going to set the betangel software that I use for trading to back these 2 runners at best price 10 seconds before post time and to trade out at 50% tick drop during in-play
I will post the resulting profit or loss on a post tomorrow
The beauty of using the in running trading tool is that yesterdays figures can be called as they were posted on the day and without the days results incorporated into the stats so that you can actually do a real time analysis of the criteria knowing in advance the result

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Trading in-play, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections

With a 100% success yesterday the selections for this study as determined by the criteria defined on In Running Trading Tool website are as follows

  1. Viking Ruby 13:35 Worcester
  2. Affable 15:30 Naas
  3. Beyond Equal 17:20 Sandown

Viking Ruby has a forecast B.S.P of 13.00 and a “Short In Running” return of £17.00. A win rate percentage of 15.79% put it just within the parameters required
Affable has the biggest win rate percentage of 23.53% and a forecast B.S.P. of just 6.00. “Short In Running” returns are £3.50 and an average “Tick Drop” of 94!
Beyond Equal with a forecast B.S.P. of 11.00 and a profitable “Short In Running” figure of £3.50 as well as a 20% win rate percentage
As yesterday the complete form, previous B.S.P and in play low prices along with average race style and a host of other information is availale in the form of a spreadsheet that you can download from the link below.

inrunningtradingtool-24Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

Trading a Horse at 15 tick drop in-play 21 Aug update

Carrying on from yesterdays post I outlined the nuts and bolts of trading a horse in play after backing it at B.S.P. (Betfair Starting Price). This system of trading uses a specific set of criteria pulled from the In Running Trading Tool website.

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5

Using this determined that there were 4 possible selections. These were
Wrenthorpe 15:20 Chester
Pablo Escobar 15:35 York
Robin Des Foret 16:35 Killarney
Cockalorum 16:45 York
These horses and their form were provided in the form of a spreadsheet which I posted for download and if you missed it you can download it below

inrunningtradingtool-23Download

Starting with Wrenthorpe
The B.S.P. forecast was 17.00 but actually went of at 32.00 making it move outside of the scope and therefore disqualifying it from the system but it did go on to trade inplay at a low of 16.5 with the 15 tick threshold at 18.00 would have made a successful trade. making a £7.10 profit to a £10.00 stake after commission deductions.
Pablo Escobar
The B.S.P. forecast was 21 just qualifying for the study but went off at a massive 65 15 ticks below this price is 28 but it went on to trade at 17. had we have initiated this trade when the market hit 28.00 we would have made a £12.41 profit to our £10.00 stake. The horse actually finished 8th out of 20, 10 lengths off the winner!
Robin Des Foret
With the lowest forecast B.S.P. yet at 13.00 this seemed as though we may have seen a bet placed ready for a trade but fortunately, in hindsight, the B.S.P. was in fact 35.76 making the 15 tick trade point 19.00. It only traded at an in-play low of 24.00 potentially losing us our £10.00 stake
Cockalorum
This was the last selection meeting the potential criteria and actually went off 3 ticks below the forecast B.S.P. of 17.00 at 16.70 trading inplay at a low of 4.2. Our 15 tick trade point was 9.6 making a £6.80 profit to a £10.00 stake.

In summary then of the 4 possible selections the only horse to actually start within the parameters was Cockalorum and did handsomely putting us £6.80 up on day 1.

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool