Researching bookies boosted bets. Are they really value or just a way of getting you to part with your money
Contrary to what I tweeted last night I will not be placing the final bet on the carabao cup this afternoon as I am working nights and would have had to wait up to place the bet in play to get the odds. I have however placed the qualifying bet on the Reading v Swansea game at 2.10 in play at a stake of £5.15 (the 15 p is just to tidy my account balance up and round it to a nice round figure 😁)
As I write this Reading have just scored – half way there already 👍🤞🤞💰
Moving on from my outstanding victory in Australia I have dared to wait 5 minutes into the Reading v Swansea game as I believe that both teams will score.
Dumped my entire account balance on BTTS “Yes” 😁🤑🤑
Starting with just 21p in my account after a couple of bad investments I was watching the Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide Utd game and decided that “beat the drop” was weighted in Paddy Powers Favour so I will be doubling or busting. At half time with the score at 0-0 and a lot of “requestabets” featuring BTTS took the plunge and staked my whole Bankroll on BTTS “Yes” at 2.4. 😁
SkyBets Soccer Saturday Price Boost is bet 4 this week with Watford Barnsley and Norwich all to win
Watford host Millwall today and have a 100% home “Win to Nil” record from the last 4 games and have accrued 53 pts from their 21 Home games. In contrast Millwall have earned themselves just 31 pts from the same number of away games. When playing Millwall at home Watford have won 4 out of the last 5 games only drawing 0-0 in November 2012.
Barnsley are at home to struggling Rotherham and will be pushing to get a play-off place and a win today will see them level on points with Bournemouth. Having won 5 of their last 8 games this shouldnt be too much trouble for this in-form side. Rotherham’s abysmal form has seen them lose 5 times from their last 8 games pretty much sealing their relegation. Barnsley have won all 3 of these two sides previous meetings in the championship league winning 4-0 in the only home fixture and conceding a total of just 1 goal in all three games.
The only away side in this treble is League winners Norwich City who are being hosted by 8th place Q.P.R. If Norwich win today it would be their 8th consecutive away match without defeat, and having scored in 81% of their 21 away games they have only lost 4 games all season 3 of them being to teams in the top 5 of the league.
This boost has been available for some time but I have been waiting for the team sheet to come out.
Salah has an average of 3.6 shots per game and an average of 1.5 shots on target per game achieving at least 1 shot on target in 12 of his last 13 starts.
As a follow on to the post earlier (Virgin Bet Fives of the Week Specials.) I have summarised the players and bets to see what, if anything, would have been Won!
Player 1
Adama Traore
Shots 3
Shots on Target 0
Goals 0
Player 2
Jarrod Bowen
Shots 3
Shots on Target 2
Goals 0
Player 3
Edinson Cavani
Shots 1
Shots on Target 1
Goals 1
Player 4
Mo Salah
Shots 2
Shots on Target 0
Goals 0
Player 4
Alex Lacazette
Shots 2
Shots on Target 0
Goals 0
The total Shots on target by all Players was 3
The total Goals by all players was 1
The bets were as follows
“Fives of the week to each score one or more goal” 150/1 – Lost
“Fives of the week to each have one or more shots on target” 4/1 – Lost
“Fives of the week to each have one or more shots on target” 100/1 Lost
“Fives of the week to score over 2.5 goals Combined” 13/10 – Lost
“Fives of the week to score over 4.5 goals Combined” 13/2 – Lost
“Fives of the week over 8.5 Shot on Target Combined” 7/4 – Lost
“Fives of the week over 10.5 Shot on Target Combined” 5/1 – Lost
Not a single winning bet out of the 7 available
I will be watching out for this weeks email and do a bit of research this week and post it before the first relevant game.
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A change of tac for this bet for no other reason than a bit of variety. This does not mean however that no research has been done, I have looked at the form mainly for Manchester City in their away game Half time/Full time results focusing mainly on the number of times they have been leading at half time.
Of the 15 away games played this season Manchester City have been leading at half time 8 times and all of them have been “to Nil” this is a percentage of 53%. If we now look at the percentage of Aston Villa losing at Half time we see that it is nearly 30% and their first half goals scored average is just 35% of all home goals scored suggesting that when they do score goals at home they are usually scored in the second half. Having convinced my self that Manchester will more often than not be leading at half time I took a look at the previous meetings of these two sides and in the previous 3 games, 1 league game and 1 FA cup tie Man City were leading to nil at half time only conceding 1 goal in the 90th minute to a penalty in the league game and leading 2-1 in a league cup tie at half time which was the final score.
Not very good this week as you are about to find out!
Bet 1 was BTTS “Yes” in the game between Brighton and Everton in which absolutely no goals were scored at all! How can the managers be blamed for poor performing players. I have always said its the players who should be sacked, just like any other job. I lost a fiver because of the players not the managers!!!
Bet 2 went the same way in the Sheffield v Swansea game where at least Swansea came out to play scoring 2, Sheffield however had just 1 shot on target the whole game! Another fiver lost!!
Bet 3 had to get better and a punt at the over 2.5 goals market in the Carlise v Crawley game and with 2 goals in the first half the omens were good – Not!!! I am not sure either team came out onto the pitch in the second half – Another fiver in Mr Skys pocket!!
Happy effing days Bet 4 was a success “Kane to have a shot on target” was a skybet boosted bet with the required odds, at least he earns his money – sort of!
The Soccer Saturday Price Boost, which is always worth a punt, actually wasn’t this week as it failed in the most direst of ways as West Ham lost to Newcastle, Swansea nearly won, and Watford didn’t score but Luton Did.
Total weekly Loss of £20.00 and when I add the total Profit from previous weeks makes it a campaign loss of £13.28. with only 1 x £5.00 free bet added to give a total of £60.00 in free bets for cheltenham next year
It doesn’t seem like it was 6 weeks since Cheltenham, they say time goes faster the older you get.
Tonight Leeds Host Liverpool and yes you guessed it I will be Putting a BTTS “Yes” bet on in-play. Two reasons, at the moment BTTS odds are just 1.5 so I will be watching the game and the odds until they reach 2.0 the second reason is that SkyBet is using the game to offer their “Game of Two Halves” promotion which means that if you bet £5.00 in play at odds of 1.5 or better then you get a £5.00 free bet to use in the second half, but as with all SkyBet free bets they never expire 😁.
Onto tonights bet though, Leeds Utd have scored in only two of their last home games But their average goals per game is 1.4, also only 7 of their 21 home goals have been scored in the first half making it a distinct possibility that the odds could indeed get to 2.0 as Liverpool’s first half scoring rate when they are away is even worse than Leeds’ at 28% or only 8 out of 29 away goals scored in the first half, their scoring rate per game when away however is 1.92. I will be hoping that both teams score their first goals between minutes 46 and 61. If there is an early goal then I will be taking the odds if they are 1.5 or better to secure the free bet. If the odds settle after the first goal below 1.5 then contingency plan A will kick in and a Over 3.5 bet should be at 2.0 or better and usually with early goals come more goals. The last time these two played each other the score was 4-3 and Salah had a hat-trick with two penalties.
As far as I can work out, each week there are 5 random players selected from all players and some special bets produced
The e-mail I got yesterday has the following players listed
Attached to this were a series of special bets with odds
Here are the bets
With only 15 minutes to kick off of the first game it is too late to do anything about it now but I will list the players stats below and see if anything would have been won from the bets
Adama Traore (Wolves Striker)
Scored late against Fulham last weekend, his first of the season.
He has made 22 first team appearances this season and scored once with an match average of 0.3 shots on target.
Jarrod Bowen (West Ham Midfield)
Eight goals this season including the winner v Leicester recently
He has made 26 first team appearances this season and scored 8 times with an match average of 0.5 shots on target.
Edinson Cavani (Man Utd Striker)
Scored a diving header against Spurs before netting in the Euorpa League on Thursday
He has made 11 first team appearances this season and scored 7 times with an match average of 1.0 shots on target.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool Striker)
Opening day hat-trick in the reverse fixture earlier in the season
He has made 28 first team appearances this season and scored 19 times with an match average of 1.6 shots on target.
Alex Lacazette (Arsenal Striker)
Scored Twice in last two games including great team goal v sheffield Utd
He has made 21 first team appearances this season and scored 13 times with an match average of 1.5 shots on target.
The Bets
A goal or more each 150/1
One or more shots on target each 4/1
Each to have 2 or more shots on target 100/1
3 or more combined goals 13/10
5 or more combined goals 13/2
9 or more combined shots on target 7/4
11 or more combined shots on target 5/1
Betornot 