Tonight sees 16th place Brighton hosting 8th place Everton. Brighton are far from safe with 3 of the top 5 league teams still to play and they will be looking to gain as many points as possible. They are not without the ability to score at home doing so against Man Utd, Leicester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. They have in fact scored at home in all but 4 games this season they have also failed to score in the same number of away games. Everton are a strong away side only losing or drawing in 5 of their 14 away games and failing to score just twice. The favourite correct score odds with SkyBet are 6.0 (5/1) for a 1-1 draw which is a good indication of what the bookies think of both teams scoring. Like last week this will have to be an in-play bet when the Odds reach the required 2.0 qualifying level. The pre match odds are presently 1.73 so a few minutes of play will be needed for it to reach 2.0. For this to happen there needs to be no goals scored in at least the first 10-15 minutes. Brightons’ earliest home goal in the premiership this season was 10 minutes against Leicester where they held the lead until the 62nd minute when leicester equalised. Their earliest conceded goal without scoring first came in the 23rd minute against Chelsea from a penalty. Everton have scored in the 1st and 3rd minutes the latter in that memorable derby where they won at Anfield for the first time in years (I forget how many 🤣) but their average is 45 minutes. This should give me plenty of time to wait for the odds and the beauty of a bet like this is that if there is an early goal which holds the odds too low I can just walk away and wait for the next oppertunity
Author Archives: shakey775
The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Freebet Week 4 Summary
Bet 1 started well with a BTTS bet on the Middlesbrough v Watford game which I backed In-Play to achieve the required qualifying odds of 2.0 The game ended 1-1 making me £5.00 up on the week. Bet No 2 was the same in the Champions League 1st leg clash between Manchester City and Dortmund which was another In-Play bet to gain the required odds. £10 up so far going into bet No 3 which incedentaly was the last to be settled as it was a £5.00 “Hotshot” bet on the “Masters” to try and earn some more free bets for each birdie or better Justin Thomas scored on the first round. This bet lost so back down to £5.00 profit on the week
Bet 4 was an Aintree bet where I backed My Drogo @ 2.63 this won lifting my weekly profit up to £13.13.
Bet 5 was the SkyBet Soccer Saturday Price Boost which won at 6.0 taking my weekly profit up to a Total of £38.13
That was my weekly free bet sorted out but there were other oppertunities to get free bets on top of this and as I have said earlier Bet 3 earned me £2.00 free bets.
SkyBet credited my account for being a loyal racing customer with a further £2.00 free bets and I got another £6.00 playing the slots Which I confess to losing £20.00
Lastly Yesterday there was another “Game of two halves” match where I again backed BTTS in-play in the Tottenham v Man Utd game winning a further £3.33 but lost £3.50 on a fun bet on the final day of the golf.
My Total Loss from last week stood at £11.24
My total Profit this week is £17.96
So far weeks 2 – 4 have seen a profit of £6.72 and £55.00 in free bets for next years Cheltenham.
An Off-piste Golf bet on the final day of the Masters
SkyBet have a very tempting offer for the final day ovf the Masters involving Jordan Spieth and current leader Matsuyama.
Only one hole matters and it is the first, a par 4, 445 yard test of nerve.
As I have mentioned in a previous blog I know nothing about golf apart from it is incredibly difficult to get the ball down such a small hole hundreds of yards from your starting point!
The cumulative stats for this hole started with , in round 1 only 1 player birdieing this but 65 players parred it 19 bogeyed and 2 Double Bogeyed. Round 2 saw 6 Birdies 55 Pars 24 Bogeys and another 2 double bogeys. After the cut 4 Birdies and 40 pars were acheived while there were only 9 Bogeys and 1 Double bogey
To me these stats suggest that as the players got used to the course they became more relaxed and at ease. The two players involved in this bet have scored a par on each time they have played
Here’s hoping they can keep their nerve at least for this hole for this fun little bet.
Paddy Power Sunday Power Price Boost Alterative bet with My VirginBet Fives quid.
After Mo Salah scored yesterday My Fives team got me £1.00 to use and after analysing Paddy Powers boosted bet this morning decided on an alterative paying 10.63 instead of 7.5
Tottenham v Manchester United is likely to see a rash of goals given previous form with Tottenham being early goal specialists and Man Utd having a tendency to concede early but rally and come from behind have put BTTS into leg 1
Sheffield Utd are hosting Arsenal and with their very poor home record think that there might well be 2 or more goals in the 1st half so have stuck over 1.5 goals in the 1st half into Leg 2
Angers have not conceded in their last 3 away games and if this trend continues Lyon would have to score 3 for under 2.5 goals for leg 3 to fail
Paddy Powers’ Sunday Power Price Boost, Man Utd, Arsenal, and Lyon all to win
This treble has been boosted from 5.0 to 7.5! A quick look over the odds available for the individual games sees that Man Utd are 2.5 for the win! The other 2 are odds on.
As Man Utd are first on the list I will have a look at them first. If Manchester Utd win they will cut Manchester City’s lead in the premiership down to 11 pts after they lost to Leeds Utd yesterday and united will still have a game in hand. This game is however sharpened at the other end as well as Tottenham at home will be looking to go level on points with Liverpool to try and get a toe in the door of the Champions League places. Manchester Utd’s recent away form is a cause for concern as they have drawn in 3 of their last 4 away games only showing some promise after their 2-0 away win at the Etihad stadium. Tottenham, on the other hand, have won their last 3 home games convincingly albeit against teams lower in the league, only allowing a single goal against Chelsea to spoil a full house! While early goal specialists Tottenham may take the lead Manchester Utd have come from behind too many times to be ignored. This game is a definite “Both Teams To Score” Candidate but recent form casts doubt on an away win as the odds reflect.
The second game in this treble is the away fixture for Arsenal at Sheffield Utd. While the odds of 1.6 lean heavily in favour of Arsenal they have recently drawn against Burnley in what should have been 3 points for the North London side. But we are talking about Sheffield here and their recent form is just dreadful. In 15 games Sheffield Utd have Lost to Nil 6 times and conceding in 87% of their home games! Arsenal have failed to score in just 27% of their away games actually scoring 22 times in 15 away matches. There have been over 1.5 goals scored in 5 of Arsenals’ last 6 away games before halftime. A fact worth noting.
In the final game in this boosted treble Lyon are hosting mid-table Angers and a win would lift them 3rd place if Monaco lose to Dijon (not a likely prospect) Both Lyon and Monaco are in contention for the third round Champions League qualifying round and Lyon have still to play Monaco away and Lille at home so 3 points today will be vital. Angers however are not without strengths and away victories against Lille and Lens show that they still have the ability and have not conceded any goals in their last 3 away games.
I wish you luck in whatever you decide
The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 4 Bet 5
The final bet this week, as far as the weekly free bet club is concerned is the 14:25 at Aintree. As I only hade £4.07 in my account after chasing a £1.00 free bet on the slots (I lost a quid to get a quid) I needed to bring my balance up to £5.00. Adelaide are playing Western Sydney Wanderers and had a player sent off before half time
WSW have scored in each of their previous 8 games so went all in on BTTS at 1.30
I have just caught Alex Hammonds tweet on Dreal Deal and while the form figures for both Dreal Deal and My Drogo are the same, Alex has just put doubt into my mind and I have gone for My Drogo in the hope that the Skelton Family can give my betting pot a bit of a boost.
This bet gives me the required total for my next free bet
Watch out for this weeks Summary on Monday – after Justin Thomas wins the Masters 🤗🤗🤗
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Paddy Power Saturday’s Turbo Power Price,
Patrick Bamford to have 1 or more shots on target has been boosted from 1.5 to 2.0! Are Paddy Power giving money away or does it go deeper? lets take a look.
Patrick Bamfords is Leeds Utd’s first choice striker this season having started in 30 games. He has scored 14 times in his Premier League starts making him Leeds Utds’ top goalscorer. He averages 3.3 shots per game getting an average of 1.4 on target.
In his last 3 starts he has been subbed off . After 35 Mins v Chelsea, After 77 mins v Fulham and after 65 mins v Sheffield Utd.
His Shots on target stats for the last 5 games are as Follows
v Sheffield Utd – 1
v Fulham – 1
v Chelsea – 0
v West Ham – 0
v Aston Villa – 0
With only 2 shots on Target in the last 5 games this could well be a “Bettornot” bet
The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 4 Bet 4
SkyBet Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week features the Liverpool, Bournemouth and Norwich games all starting at 3pm
Liverpool host Aston Villa and is a crucial game for Liverpool for a Champions League place coming off the back of 4 consecutive defeats at home Klopps team will be looking to towards ending this drought. With only teams below them in the league left to play at home, winning today would create an ideal springboard to achieve that aim. Liverpool’s home goals average is 1.47 giving a slight statistical advantage over Aston Villas away goal average of 1.27. The Villa do not have a good away record playing teams higher in the league winning only one against leicester City. Liverpool will want to forget the humiliating defeat in the previous meeting with Villa and set the record straight, 7-2 is a very good incentive. I think that Liverpools ability is coming back to the fore now as have hit form in the Premier League, beating Arsenal 3-0 and Wolves 1-0 in their last 2 matches away.
The next game in the troublesome trio is Bournemouth v Coventry City. My wifes’ family all support Coventry as do some of the guys at work and this analysis may seem a bit disloyal to them but I look at stats and Coventry Citys’ away record is something dreadful only winning 2 of their away games this season and “Losing to Nil” 8 times form the 19 games they travelled. Bournemouth on the other hand have picked up 16 points from their last 8 games and are on a charge for those play-off places that are so tantalisingly close. We are getting towards the end of the season where nearly every kick of the ball counts and Coventry City just don’t play well away from home.
Lastly is the Derby County v Norwich City where Norwich could clinch the title today if they win and and both Brentford and Swansea fail to win. Derby have picked up just 5 points from their last 8 games as opposed to Norwich City gaining 4 times that figure. Offensively Norwich City have scored 64 goas from the 40 games this season , concedeing just 28 whereas Derby have scored just 30 from the same number of games.
Skybet have offered, as always, a cop out for this game, giving alternatives in the guise of Liverpool, Bournemouth to win and Derby to Draw (12/1) and Liverpool, Bournemouth and Derby to win (16/1).
Fulham, The Bookies Favourites???
The popularity of boosted trebles is undoubtedly one of the best money spinners for the bookies yet. Enhanced trebles and shots on target are just two “featured” bets offered by bookies which are designed to take your money. The average punter will only see the odds and perhaps 2 “bankers” and think perhaps the third team will win and willingly give the bookies their money
I have just done a blog post on paddy powers friday night special (read it here) which features Fulham
The conclusion to this post was that If the bookies put fulham, at home, in a “featured specially boosted just for the punter enhanced treble” And if the other teams won they would have only had to pay out twice in sixteen times.
If we take the average acca at odds of 6/1 and if the average bet is £10 then you would have staked £160 but won just £120. That is some profit margin for the bookies!!
With just a quick look at the bookmakers sites I found the following had all put Fulham in their “Special” bets tonight.
Paddy Power
Betfair
Boylesports,
Coral
BetVictor.
All I can say is I hope Fulham Win but I doubt it. Another bonza payday for the bookies!!
Paddy Power Friday Featured Power Price. Fulham Watford and Hearts all to win.
Fulham host Wolves tonight at 8pm and they need some points!!
Fulham’s recent home form is nothing to write home about Losing the last 3 and only beating bottom side Sheffield Utd by a goal to nil. Wolverhampton have not however faired much better of late winning one drawing 2 and losing 1 in their last 4 away games.
Fulham’s form against teams similarly placed around Wolverhampton’s 14th place in the league have ended in draws or losses in fact they have only won home games this season against the two teams below them.
Championship 2nd placed Watford host Reading who are chasing a play-off place.
Watford at home recently have won to nil in all four of their most recent games. Conversely Reading away games have 1 win, 2 draws and a loss to nil against relegation bound Rotherham. Reading are however not without goal scoring ability and are only 1 goal behind Watfords 57 goals from 40 games
This one could be close and probably back BTTS rather than a match outcome.
In The Scottish Championship, League leaders Hearts are at home to bottom side Alloa Athletic. Even though Hearts are top of the league by some considerable lead of their last 8 home and away games they have only won twice. Alloa have lost 4 of their last 8 games but have managed to score at least once in all but one of those making this game a BTTS bet more attractive than an outcome bet.
Just as a final note If bookmakers had put Fulham playing at home in their enhanced accas’ AND if the other teams in the accas won they would have only had to pay out twice out of 16 times!!! 🤔🤔🤔
Betornot 