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Paddy Power ” Beat The Drop” in Reverse 😁

So Paddy Power has stopped me from doing the”Beat The Drop” game – I will try not to sink into the depths of despair, and let’s face it I still have the Wonder Wheel to keep me entertained once a day. Speaking of which I won £1.25 on it last night Not being able to do beat the drop sparked a thought that instead of sticking my considerable winnings on three-legged nag I could do the Beat the Drop backwards. Instead of starting with a thousand quid and trying to keep it I will start with 25p (This will give me 5 free goes at it) and work up through 12 questions by the end winning £1024.00 (if you halve £1000 12 times it reduces to 24.4p
Question 1 is “Will Both Teams Score?” in the Sheffield Utd v Swansea Game tonight. Pre-kick-off odds for BTTS are “Yes” 1.95 and “No” 1.75 at the time of writing this.
Starting with the home side, Sheffield have scored in all four of their last 4 home games, which includes a 5-0 drubbing of Cardiff! In fact, they have failed to score just 5 times in this season’s 19 games. There have been 3 0-0 draws at home this season and lost to Nil just twice. Their place 2nd from the bottom can be wholely attributed to their dreadful away form getting just 14 points from 21 away games. Their home scoring average is a shade over 1 at 1.05 Their conceding rate at home however is less than one at 0.74 goals per game
On to Swansea and they have scored in all 3 of their away games against the other teams in the bottom 4 of the championship, and have actually scored in 80% of all of their away games this season. A slightly concerning fact is that they have failed to score in 2 of their lastest 4 away games but in view of the fact that losing a play-off place would be a danger should they lose tonight, these two goalless games could just be a blip and not a trend!
A victory tonight would put them 4 points clear of Barnsley in fifth place thereby piling the pressure on Barnsley to try and keep Bournemouth at bay.
As I am looking to place these bets at 2.0 (evens) or better to keep doubling my stake. Goal timings will be vital as many of these questions will involve in-play bets due to having to wait for the odds to get to my minimum point. This bet is no exception and whilst the odds pre-kick-off are just below 2.0 there is always the danger of an early goal to upset the movement of the market. To this end, I will now look at the probable time of the 1st goal and which team will score it. Sheffield has had two 4th minute goals this season the first being against Barnsley when they lost 1-2 and the second was last Monday against Cardiff. Generally speaking, though they tend to score their majority of goals between 31 minutes and 75 minutes 10 out of the 20 home goals were scored in this time segment). If the pre-match odds remain as they are then 5 minutes should be enough time for the odds to rise up to 2.0 With Swansea being the favorites to win this game a very early goal by Sheffield would stop the market dead and make this bet untenable. (A note to critics on this point is that my aim is to do the game backwards and still think that both teams will score but need the evens odds to do this. With “beat the drop” odds don’t matter)
Swansea scoring first would not necessarily affect the odds significantly but the rise would be slower.

For those of you who follow my “Road to Cheltenham” series of bets, this will be bet No 2 this week so apologies as I will be copying a lot of this blog.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 week 5 Bet 1

Tonight sees 16th place Brighton hosting 8th place Everton. Brighton are far from safe with 3 of the top 5 league teams still to play and they will be looking to gain as many points as possible. They are not without the ability to score at home doing so against Man Utd, Leicester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool. They have in fact scored at home in all but 4 games this season they have also failed to score in the same number of away games. Everton are a strong away side only losing or drawing in 5 of their 14 away games and failing to score just twice. The favourite correct score odds with SkyBet are 6.0 (5/1) for a 1-1 draw which is a good indication of what the bookies think of both teams scoring. Like last week this will have to be an in-play bet when the Odds reach the required 2.0 qualifying level. The pre match odds are presently 1.73 so a few minutes of play will be needed for it to reach 2.0. For this to happen there needs to be no goals scored in at least the first 10-15 minutes. Brightons’ earliest home goal in the premiership this season was 10 minutes against Leicester where they held the lead until the 62nd minute when leicester equalised. Their earliest conceded goal without scoring first came in the 23rd minute against Chelsea from a penalty. Everton have scored in the 1st and 3rd minutes the latter in that memorable derby where they won at Anfield for the first time in years (I forget how many 🤣) but their average is 45 minutes. This should give me plenty of time to wait for the odds and the beauty of a bet like this is that if there is an early goal which holds the odds too low I can just walk away and wait for the next oppertunity

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Freebet Week 4 Summary

Bet 1 started well with a BTTS bet on the Middlesbrough v Watford game which I backed In-Play to achieve the required qualifying odds of 2.0 The game ended 1-1 making me £5.00 up on the week. Bet No 2 was the same in the Champions League 1st leg clash between Manchester City and Dortmund which was another In-Play bet to gain the required odds. £10 up so far going into bet No 3 which incedentaly was the last to be settled as it was a £5.00 “Hotshot” bet on the “Masters” to try and earn some more free bets for each birdie or better Justin Thomas scored on the first round. This bet lost so back down to £5.00 profit on the week
Bet 4 was an Aintree bet where I backed My Drogo @ 2.63 this won lifting my weekly profit up to £13.13.
Bet 5 was the SkyBet Soccer Saturday Price Boost which won at 6.0 taking my weekly profit up to a Total of £38.13
That was my weekly free bet sorted out but there were other oppertunities to get free bets on top of this and as I have said earlier Bet 3 earned me £2.00 free bets.
SkyBet credited my account for being a loyal racing customer with a further £2.00 free bets and I got another £6.00 playing the slots Which I confess to losing £20.00
Lastly Yesterday there was another “Game of two halves” match where I again backed BTTS in-play in the Tottenham v Man Utd game winning a further £3.33 but lost £3.50 on a fun bet on the final day of the golf.
My Total Loss from last week stood at £11.24
My total Profit this week is £17.96
So far weeks 2 – 4 have seen a profit of £6.72 and £55.00 in free bets for next years Cheltenham.

An Off-piste Golf bet on the final day of the Masters

SkyBet have a very tempting offer for the final day ovf the Masters involving Jordan Spieth and current leader Matsuyama.
Only one hole matters and it is the first, a par 4, 445 yard test of nerve.
As I have mentioned in a previous blog I know nothing about golf apart from it is incredibly difficult to get the ball down such a small hole hundreds of yards from your starting point!
The cumulative stats for this hole started with , in round 1 only 1 player birdieing this but 65 players parred it 19 bogeyed and 2 Double Bogeyed. Round 2 saw 6 Birdies 55 Pars 24 Bogeys and another 2 double bogeys. After the cut 4 Birdies and 40 pars were acheived while there were only 9 Bogeys and 1 Double bogey
To me these stats suggest that as the players got used to the course they became more relaxed and at ease. The two players involved in this bet have scored a par on each time they have played
Here’s hoping they can keep their nerve at least for this hole for this fun little bet.

Paddy Power Sunday Power Price Boost Alterative bet with My VirginBet Fives quid.

After Mo Salah scored yesterday My Fives team got me £1.00 to use and after analysing Paddy Powers boosted bet this morning decided on an alterative paying 10.63 instead of 7.5
Tottenham v Manchester United is likely to see a rash of goals given previous form with Tottenham being early goal specialists and Man Utd having a tendency to concede early but rally and come from behind have put BTTS into leg 1
Sheffield Utd are hosting Arsenal and with their very poor home record think that there might well be 2 or more goals in the 1st half so have stuck over 1.5 goals in the 1st half into Leg 2
Angers have not conceded in their last 3 away games and if this trend continues Lyon would have to score 3 for under 2.5 goals for leg 3 to fail

Paddy Powers’ Sunday Power Price Boost, Man Utd, Arsenal, and Lyon all to win

This treble has been boosted from 5.0 to 7.5! A quick look over the odds available for the individual games sees that Man Utd are 2.5 for the win! The other 2 are odds on.
As Man Utd are first on the list I will have a look at them first. If Manchester Utd win they will cut Manchester City’s lead in the premiership down to 11 pts after they lost to Leeds Utd yesterday and united will still have a game in hand. This game is however sharpened at the other end as well as Tottenham at home will be looking to go level on points with Liverpool to try and get a toe in the door of the Champions League places. Manchester Utd’s recent away form is a cause for concern as they have drawn in 3 of their last 4 away games only showing some promise after their 2-0 away win at the Etihad stadium. Tottenham, on the other hand, have won their last 3 home games convincingly albeit against teams lower in the league, only allowing a single goal against Chelsea to spoil a full house! While early goal specialists Tottenham may take the lead Manchester Utd have come from behind too many times to be ignored. This game is a definite “Both Teams To Score” Candidate but recent form casts doubt on an away win as the odds reflect.
The second game in this treble is the away fixture for Arsenal at Sheffield Utd. While the odds of 1.6 lean heavily in favour of Arsenal they have recently drawn against Burnley in what should have been 3 points for the North London side. But we are talking about Sheffield here and their recent form is just dreadful. In 15 games Sheffield Utd have Lost to Nil 6 times and conceding in 87% of their home games! Arsenal have failed to score in just 27% of their away games actually scoring 22 times in 15 away matches. There have been over 1.5 goals scored in 5 of Arsenals’ last 6 away games before halftime. A fact worth noting.
In the final game in this boosted treble Lyon are hosting mid-table Angers and a win would lift them 3rd place if Monaco lose to Dijon (not a likely prospect) Both Lyon and Monaco are in contention for the third round Champions League qualifying round and Lyon have still to play Monaco away and Lille at home so 3 points today will be vital. Angers however are not without strengths and away victories against Lille and Lens show that they still have the ability and have not conceded any goals in their last 3 away games.
I wish you luck in whatever you decide

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 4 Bet 5

The final bet this week, as far as the weekly free bet club is concerned is the 14:25 at Aintree. As I only hade £4.07 in my account after chasing a £1.00 free bet on the slots (I lost a quid to get a quid) I needed to bring my balance up to £5.00. Adelaide are playing Western Sydney Wanderers and had a player sent off before half time
WSW have scored in each of their previous 8 games so went all in on BTTS at 1.30

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I have just caught Alex Hammonds tweet on Dreal Deal and while the form figures for both Dreal Deal and My Drogo are the same, Alex has just put doubt into my mind and I have gone for My Drogo in the hope that the Skelton Family can give my betting pot a bit of a boost.
This bet gives me the required total for my next free bet
Watch out for this weeks Summary on Monday – after Justin Thomas wins the Masters 🤗🤗🤗

Paddy Power Saturday’s Turbo Power Price,

Patrick Bamford to have 1 or more shots on target has been boosted from 1.5 to 2.0! Are Paddy Power giving money away or does it go deeper? lets take a look.
Patrick Bamfords is Leeds Utd’s first choice striker this season having started in 30 games. He has scored 14 times in his Premier League starts making him Leeds Utds’ top goalscorer. He averages 3.3 shots per game getting an average of 1.4 on target.
In his last 3 starts he has been subbed off . After 35 Mins v Chelsea, After 77 mins v Fulham and after 65 mins v Sheffield Utd.
His Shots on target stats for the last 5 games are as Follows
v Sheffield Utd – 1
v Fulham – 1
v Chelsea – 0
v West Ham – 0
v Aston Villa – 0

With only 2 shots on Target in the last 5 games this could well be a “Bettornot” bet

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 4 Bet 4

SkyBet Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week features the Liverpool, Bournemouth and Norwich games all starting at 3pm
Liverpool host Aston Villa and is a crucial game for Liverpool for a Champions League place coming off the back of 4 consecutive defeats at home Klopps team will be looking to towards ending this drought. With only teams below them in the league left to play at home, winning today would create an ideal springboard to achieve that aim. Liverpool’s home goals average is 1.47 giving a slight statistical advantage over Aston Villas away goal average of 1.27. The Villa do not have a good away record playing teams higher in the league winning only one against leicester City. Liverpool will want to forget the humiliating defeat in the previous meeting with Villa and set the record straight, 7-2 is a very good incentive. I think that Liverpools ability is coming back to the fore now as have hit form in the Premier League, beating Arsenal 3-0 and Wolves 1-0 in their last 2 matches away.

The next game in the troublesome trio is Bournemouth v Coventry City. My wifes’ family all support Coventry as do some of the guys at work and this analysis may seem a bit disloyal to them but I look at stats and Coventry Citys’ away record is something dreadful only winning 2 of their away games this season and “Losing to Nil” 8 times form the 19 games they travelled. Bournemouth on the other hand have picked up 16 points from their last 8 games and are on a charge for those play-off places that are so tantalisingly close. We are getting towards the end of the season where nearly every kick of the ball counts and Coventry City just don’t play well away from home.

Lastly is the Derby County v Norwich City where Norwich could clinch the title today if they win and and both Brentford and Swansea fail to win. Derby have picked up just 5 points from their last 8 games as opposed to Norwich City gaining 4 times that figure. Offensively Norwich City have scored 64 goas from the 40 games this season , concedeing just 28 whereas Derby have scored just 30 from the same number of games.
Skybet have offered, as always, a cop out for this game, giving alternatives in the guise of Liverpool, Bournemouth to win and Derby to Draw (12/1) and Liverpool, Bournemouth and Derby to win (16/1).

Fulham, The Bookies Favourites???

The popularity of boosted trebles is undoubtedly one of the best money spinners for the bookies yet. Enhanced trebles and shots on target are just two “featured” bets offered by bookies which are designed to take your money. The average punter will only see the odds and perhaps 2 “bankers” and think perhaps the third team will win and willingly give the bookies their money
I have just done a blog post on paddy powers friday night special (read it here) which features Fulham
The conclusion to this post was that If the bookies put fulham, at home, in a “featured specially boosted just for the punter enhanced treble” And if the other teams won they would have only had to pay out twice in sixteen times.
If we take the average acca at odds of 6/1 and if the average bet is £10 then you would have staked £160 but won just £120. That is some profit margin for the bookies!!
With just a quick look at the bookmakers sites I found the following had all put Fulham in their “Special” bets tonight.
Paddy Power
Betfair
Boylesports,
Coral
BetVictor.
All I can say is I hope Fulham Win but I doubt it. Another bonza payday for the bookies!!