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Man Utd, Inter Milan and Real Madrid all to win

Today Ladbrokes has a “Favourites Treble” on offer. They have boosted the bet from 6.0 to 6.5. Man Utd and Real Madrid are odds on favs but Inter are 2.3 (13/10) Both the Man Utd and Inter games are cup matches while the Real Madrid game is La Liga.

Man Utd play West Ham in the F.A.Cup and are currently 1.67 with Ladbrokes.
Having knocked out Watford 1-0 and Liverpool 3-2 neither game was a convincing win especially the Watford result. West Ham are coming into this cup tie on the back of a goalless draw against Fulham.
Man Utd have a couple of injury absentees with notably Pogba out with a thigh injury and Phil Jones with a long standing knee problem.

Inter Milan take on Juventus Away in the Coppa Italia with an away goal deficit after Juventus beat them 1-2 in the first leg. Inter will have to pull something out of the hat for this one and I suspect Juventus being at home will be satisfied with a draw.
La Liga is the destination for the final leg of this treble and 3rd place Real Madrid take on 13th place Getafe at home. Real are pushing for the top while it seems Getafe while having some good results are marking time mid-table. This match feels more the banker of the 3 and the odds of 1.53 reflect that.
I think that this treble may be trouble
Betternot 🙂

Benevento v Sampdoria

This blog is going to look at the Beat the Drop question posed by Paddy Power and will be my Question No 2. The conundrum is will there be 3 or more goals in the match?
This is a mid table clash with both teams looking safe from relegation but not much hope of a Champions League spot. With a total goals scored in a match question perhaps we should look at goals conceded by each team to start with. Benevento have conceded goals in both halves in 40% of matches when playing at home and Sampdoria just 30% when playing away. This in itself doesn’t mean that they don’t let in more than one goal 60% and 70% of the time. The following stats do seem to back these figures up as Benevento when at home concede the most goals between minutes 16-30 and 61-75 suggesting lapses half way through each half. Sampdoria on the other hand let in the most goals between 61-75 minutes.
Benevento do make most of their substitutions after about the 75th minute as shown below in the last 5 matches
v Cagliari – Insigne 72′ Sau 76′ Lapadura 76′
v Atalanta – Foulon 46′ Ionita 80′ Dabo 58′ Sau 58′ Lapadula 58′
v Crotone – Improa 75′ Tuia 75′ Ionita 65′ Insigne 40′ Sau 65′
v Torino – Tello 68′ Ionita 84′ Lapadula 84′ Caprari 76′
v Inter – Caldirola 60′ Improta 70′ Ionita 70′ Viola 60′ Caprari 76′
N.B The substitutions in the Atalanta game proved to be a bit of a blunder as Atalanta put 3 goals past them in the last 21 minutes 🙂

Sampdoria have pretty much a similar substitutions policy as the following last 5 matches show
v Inter – Tonelli 68′ Silva 75′ Jankto 75′ Balde 90 + 2′
v Spezia – Jankto 79′ Candreva 85′ Damsgaard 79′ Balde 86′
v Udinese – Ekdal 85′ Silva 73′ Damsgaard 62′ Verre 62′ Quagliarella 62′
v Parma – Candreva 82′ Silva 82′ Ramirez 70′ Balde 58′ Quagliarella 70′
v Juventus – Candreva 81′ Silva 63′ Quagliarella 68′ Balde 68′

Niether team reply quickly to goals scored against them letting play carry on to take its natural course. In other words they don’t mount an effective counterattack against their opponents but this doesnt strike as detrimental to the amount of goals scored. As the following scorelines show in matches against teams also in mid table a shortage of goals never seems a problem
Beneventos’ 5 home games v Mid table sides
v Lazio 1-1
v Genoa 2-0
v Spezia 0-3
v Bologna 1-0
v Torino 2-2
Sampdorias’ 5 away games v Mid table sides
v Atalanta 1-3
v Hellas 1-2
v Firentina 1-2
v Spezia 2-1
v Torino 2-2

Sampdoria have conceded in everyone of there away games against similar matched sides and in every case 3 or more goals have been scored.

Unlike the English Premiership, Serie A games are much more spaced out allowing players to take proper rests and as such will be more match fit than their English counterparts.
Paddy Power is quoting odds of 1.73 for over 2.5 goals in this mach which seems to bare out the liklihood of an above average Goal rate.

Mohamed Salah, Raheem Sterling & Mason Mount each to have 1 or more shots on target

This one looks interesting from Paddy Power, they have boosted this bet from 4.0 (3/1) to 6.0 (5/1). As is usual with Paddy Power they have not given any pointers as to past performances with all players playing for different teams in two seperate games.

Mo Salah is currently the leading premiership goal scorer and averages 3.7 shots at goal converting that into 1.7 shots on target. Liverpool play Man City at Anfield on Sunday and should prove to be an exciting match as they will both be looking to advance their respective positions in the league. A disappointing performance by Liverpool against Brighton will galvanise the team effort. That said however Salah did have 4 attempts at goal in that match having 2 of them blocked but unfortunately none were on target. His performance against the reverse fixture at Etihad Stadium did see him have 2 attempts at goal with one being on target. This bet has ensured that we cannot wait to see the team sheets so will Salah start this game as Liverpool take on Leicester City next Saturday? I suspect that he will as it is an opportunity not to be missed as Man City play Swansea City in the F.A. Cup in 3 days and as such will Pep Guardiola rest some of his players in preparation.

Mason Mount is Chelsea’s attacking Midfielder with an average shots on target figure of 0.6. Having scored only twice this season in the premiership and having 19 1st team appearances his ability to fulfil his part of the bet seems dubious. Chelsea play Sheffield Utd Away late Sunday night and their last meeting at Stamford Bridge saw Chelsea put 4 goals past the Sheffield keeper but none were scored by Mount but he did manage a shot on target and 2 blocked shots. Chelsea also have an F.A. Cup clash next week against Barnsley. His performance against Tottenham 3 days ago was better than most with 3 shots at goal getting one on target. Going back further to the 2-0 win over Burnley, he still seemed to struggle to get on target after 4 attempts. I think that this choice of player by P.P. is the one that they hope to fail his performances against sides that are defensively weaker than Chelsea can be lack-lustre at best.

Last but by no means least is Raheem Sterling who’s’ average shots on goal are 2.4 with 1.1 shots on target match average. In the match at the Etihad Stadium he didnt score for City as Salah scored for Liverpool but he did manage a shot on target. His ability to score goals is beyond doubt as he has 7 to his credit this premiership season. A bit of a brutal schedule this week for Man City may see some substitutions in the City ranks so again perhaps a clever selection by Paddy Power.

Paddy power have no doubt put this bet up early to entice the Saturday Morning punters to perhaps punt a small stake before any team sheets are posted. Will probably risk a quid to win 5 but no more 🙂

Norwich, Inter Milan and Valladolid All to Win

I am afraid that Ladbrokes Friday Night Treble is the subject of todays Blog again! I will grant that they have made it very attractive by boosting the odds to 13.0 (12/1) and by picking teams which are all above their opponents in their respective leagues. However all the teams in question are all playing away, and Norwich have had a particular brutal match Itinerary in the past week. Anyway lets have a look at the stats.

First up is Norwich City. As I mentioned above they have played 3 matches in the last 7 days, the 2 league matches ending in goalless draws and a 1-0 defeat in the F.A. Cup. Not too inspiring so far! Swansea on the other hand have had a relatively huge break of 6 days since their win against Rotherham on Jan 30th. Norwich Manager, Daniel Farke is quoted as saying “This game is no more important than any other” and “We’re going to Swansea and we’re going to try our best in a difficult situation, this is our third game in six days.” I tend to disagree with this statement as Swansea are just 5 points behind Norwich going into this game with a game in hand and better rested. To me this sounds like he already has his excuses ready!
Norwich City are in a precarious position at the top of the league and while automatic promotion seems unlikely at the moment a place in the playoffs is still on the cards but this game is crucial to that goal. Given their recent form perhaps a draw would be a bonus!

Inter Milan are currently 2nd in the League and just 2 points behind AC Milan. Their opponents are 11th place Fiorentina who from the last 4 home games won 2 and drawn 2 albeit against teams who are below them in the League with the exception of Hellas Verona who are 2 places above but points have been earned from all 4 games. Inter Milan’s recent form from the last 4 league away games are 1 win 2 draws and a loss, this coming from 10th place Sampdoria with the most recent match being a goalless draw against 13th place Udinese. A 2-1 defeat in the Copa Italia 3 days ago against Juventus may also be a factor in how Inter play tonight. They certainly have the opportunity to take top spot tonight but with Fiorentina needing to keep the momentum going Inter cannot rest on their laurels in this game.

Finally the tour of Europe ends with this 3rd leg of the treble in Italy and the focus on La Liga’s 16th placed side Valladolid. They play 18th place Alaves in what to all intents and purposes a battle to climb from relegation. Valladolid have, in the last 4 away matches, come away with without defeat. Alaves on the other hand have a bit of an opposite dilemma of having a 3-match losing streak at home. This match is, even though both teams are languishing at the bottom end of La Liga, to my mind probably the banker 🙂

To Bet Or Not – Better Not!

Rangers, Napoli and Lyon all To Win

Ladbrokes are the target treble today again. They have boosted this treble from 4.0 (3/1) to 4.5 (7/2) on the Smarkets exchange you can get 4.8 (Which is very nearly 4/1)
Rangers seem to be the banker leg of this treble and a win tonight will add a further 3 point to their 72 points. With a 100% scoring rate you would hope that there will be plenty of goals.

In the 2nd leg of this treble, 5th place Napoli take on 7th placed Atalanta in Italy’s Coppa Italia clash tonight. Recent form in the league (Serie A) from the last 8 games have seen 4 wins 1 draw and 3 Losses for Napoli but Atalanta have a slightly better record of 4 wins 3 draws and only one Loss which was quite a spanking by 6th place Lazio (1-3). Napoli’s record against similarly matched opponents (3 above and 3 below) includes a 4-0 drubbing against Roma a 1-0 loss against Inter Milan losing to Lazio 2-0 but in the last clash with Atalanta, last October, stuffing them 4-1. Napoli seems to have quite a solid record when playing at home. Atalanta, on the other hand, seems to be content with draws when playing away. As far as this Cup Match goes Napoli’s two games so far in this competition have been 3-2 v Serie B side Empoli and 4-2 against Serie A Side 16th place Spezia. Atalanta’s cup record is a bit more impressive however and consists of knocking out Serie A sides Lazio and Cagliari from the competition with 3-2 and 3-1 scorelines respectively. The Lazio game saw Atalanta have a red card AND a missed penalty! It is plain that both of these teams have ample ability of scoring goals so predicting which side will win is difficult.

The final leg of this conundrum involves the French Ligue 1 clash of Dijon v Lyon. Lyon are at present snapping at the heels of 1st place Lille and a win tonight might just boost them into top spot if Lille draw against Bordeaux. Dijon are most definitely looking at relegation this season with a home record of only 6 points from 11 games. A slightly worrying fact is that Lyon earlier in the season only managed a 1-1 draw against 18th Lorient but this seems to be just a blot on the landscape as Lyon had 6 shots on target and 3 blocked shots so Lorient just had an outstanding defence that day.

The sticking point in this bet is without doubt the Coppa Italia match and creating a new treble by replacing a Napoli win with over 2.5 goals may be prudent if you wanted to. But the aim of this blog is to pick holes in these so called boosted bets and I think I have achieved this.

Watford, Betis and Sporting Lisbon All T Win

Ladbrokes have boosted this Bet to 9.5 (17/2) from 9.0 (8/1) So Generous!!
Using Smarkets to find a Lay Price I find that the price should be closer to 11.0 (10/1) This is Ladbrokes!

Watford are hosting QPR tonight and will move into 3rd place behind Swansea with a win tonight. Form against teams in a similar position to QPR is favourable with 3-2 against Coventry and 2-0 against Rotherham. QPR on the other hand are struggling to stay clear of the relegation zone and are clearly finding this league difficult. Defeats from Barnsley 3-0 and Brentford 2-1 have proved this side have no problem conceding goals. Slightly in their favour are a 1-1 draw against league leaders Norwich who Watford beat 1-0, a goalless draw with Bournemouth however seem to suggest they have difficulty scoring! This has all the hallmarks of a low scoring game with perhaps Watford managing to scrape 3 points from it.

Betis take on Osasuna in a La Liga clash that is perhaps not the most evenly matched contest today. Betis have had convincing wins over all of the bottom third teams in the league with the exception of a 0-2 spanking by Eibar who are currently laying 15th two places above Osasuna. In complete contrast Osasuna have been beaten resoundingly by most of the upper echelon of the league with the notable win against Granada. Tey are, however, not without goalscoring talents having scored 8 goals in 10 away matches compared with Betis managing 4 more while playing at home. The stats suggest that if they get through the first 15 minutes without conceding, but something about this game niggles me. Osasuna have lost their last 9 games away and this one might just be the catalyst to break that habit.

The Portuguese Primeira Liga leaders Sporting CP (Lisbon) is the focus for the last game of this trio and they play Benfica who are currenly 3rd. A win for Lisbon will see them stay 4 points clear as Porto play Rio Ave as well tonight. It is all very tight at the top with everyone having everything to play for. Offensively both teams are pretty evenly matched with Lisbon scoring 33 goals from 15 games, 3 more than Benfica but Benfica are not as efficient in defence conceding 15 goals in as many games 6 more than Lisbon. Neither team has lost a game in the last 8 but Lisbon have only drawn 2 to Benfica’s 3. Both teams drew in their last match and if it wasn’t for the fact that Porto are also playing tonight I would say that this might also be the case again.

The verdict on this Treble to my mind is leave well alone.

Getafe and Sporting Gijon both to win

Betfair Sportsbook are the focus today offering odds of 4.0 (3/1) on La Liga’s Getafe and La Liga 2 side Sporting Gijon both to win their games at lunchtime
Getafe are currently 14th in the league and are playing 18th place Alaves.
A win for Getafe would boost them into the top 10 whereas victory for Alaves would see them out of the relegation zone if only temporarily. Getafe have secured 10 points from the last 8 league games whereas Alaves have only managed to accumulate 4 points from the same number of games. Getafe, when playing at home, have only managed 1-0 victories in games played against teams lower than them in the league and losing one game 0-1 against Valladolid suggesting that goals do not come easy to them whereas Alaves do seem to be able to hit the back of the net while not being able to win as they have scored at least one goal in the last 6 league matches played. Their offensive strikes do put them above Getafe in that respect. Defensively however Getafe have conceded 23 goals in 19 matches played against Alaves 29 conceded goals in 20 matches. Upon reflection it would seem that Alaves are more hungry to stay in the league than getafe want to climb and would not be surprised if the match ended 1-1
Onto the second half of the bet which comes from La Liga 2 and involves 2 sides from opposite ends of the league. Sporting Gijon are currently 5th with 36 points only 1 point behind Rayo Vallecano. Cartagena on the other hand are languishing in 21st place only being buoyed up from bottom spot by a game in hand. Playing at home Sporting Gijon are quite formidable earning 25 points from 11 games whereas Cartagena do seem to be struggling when away fixtures have only secured them 9 points from the same number of matches. Defensively Cartagena don’t seem to be able to prevent goals being scored letting in 33 goals this season. The probable outcome of this match will be a home win but would be very wary of Getafe being able to pull off a victory today.
Upon reflection I don’t think putting any money on this double would be profitable and will be keeping my money in my pocket.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1+ Shot on target

Today, at lunchtime, Everton take on Newcastle at Goodison Park. SkyBet have boosted the odds of Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1 or more shots on target from 1/6 to even money. There are stake limits to this boost but if the research pans out and the man actually starts, then any stake used will add towards the Sky Bet Club weekly free bet.
These two teams last met in the premiership on 1st November 20 at St James’ Park and Newcastle won 2-1
This is irrelevant however as we are looking for D.C-L stats and find that he scored Everton’s only goal in the last minute. D.C-L is the teams highest goal scorer this season and is 2 goals off the top for the golden boot on 11 goals scored.
Past performances starting with the most recent games are as follows
v Leicester City (H) 2 shots at goal 1 on target
v Wolves (A) Did not play due to hamstring injury (12 Jan)
v West Ham (H) 2 shots at goal 1 on target
v Sheffield Utd (A) 1 shot on goal 0 on target
v Arsenal (H) 2 shots at goal 1 on target
v Leicester City (A) 3 shots at goal 2 on target
v Chelsea (H) 1 shot at goal 0 on target
v Burnley (A) 4 shots at goal 3 on target
v Leeds Utd (H) 3 shots at goal 1 on target
v Fulham (A) 3 shots at goal 3 on target
v Man Utd (H) 1 shot at goal 0 on target

Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s stats are quite impressive when matched against the likes of Mo Salah and Kane when I researched their shots on goal stats earlier in the week.
Having started 16 times for Everton this season in Premiership Matches he has played for a total of 1409 minutes scored 11 times and has a match average of 1.6 shots on target (same as Kane)
With it being Saturday I can look into todays match itself with a bit more depth. Newcastle’s defensive stance in recent games looks pretty dismal having only won 2 points from the last 8 games and conceded 34 goals from 20 matches played. It would seem that this might be an ideal opportunity for Calvert-Lewin to climb into that top spot in the race for the golden Boot this season.
I will be waiting to see the team sheet before the match and IF he starts then will likely add a few more quid towards my weekly free bet 🙂

Tottenham v Liverpool Shots on Target

Tonight Tottenham host Liverpool. and several bookies are offering boosts to their shots on target markets. Today as all the stats are in one place I will be looking at SkyBets very attractive offer of Kane and Salah to have 2 or more shots on target each at 9.0 (8/1) And Virgin Bets each team 2 or more shots on target each half!! 3.75 (11/4).
Lets start by looking at the last time these 2 teams met on the 16 Dec 2020 at Anfield. The score was 2-1 and Liverpool had most of the match dominating the possession 76% to 24% Liverpool had 11 shots on Target with Tottenham only having 2 . Salah acounted for 4 of those by Liverpool and Kane only one of the 2 by Tottenham. VirginBets offering, at this stage doesnt look too inviting, however I will dig deeper. Kanes’ average shots on target figure is 1.6 / 90 minutes. Salah does not fair much better with an average of 1.8. Both of therse players are the 2 top goal scorers this season with Salah scoring 13 and Kane sharing second spot with Son on 12 goals.

Since that meeting, and starting with Kane, He has had 2 or more shots on target in the following matches.
Leicester (A) 2
Leeds Utd (H) 2
Sheffield Utd (A) 2

Salahs’ only 2 or more shots on target game since 16 Dec is
Crystal Palace (A) 2 (only played 33 minutes)
This seems quite worrying as a dip in form is indicated.

Will probably only put one of my £5.00 free bets on this

After going through the recent form of both teams it seems that 4 shots on target for each team would probably be quite a good bet the problem arises when 2 shots have to be in both halves for both teams. I am still looking for a stats sight that split the halves so will not commit either way on the virginBet Bet

Tammy Abraham to have OVER 2 shots on target

Tonight Chelsea take on Wolves without Lampard at the helm. How will they fair? they are odds on to win with all the bookmakers. William Hill have offered boosted odds of 6.0 (5/1) instead of 5.0 (4/1) that Tammy Abraham will get 3 or more shots on target. At their last meeting at Molineux on 15 Dec 2020 Abraham was on the Bench and played for just 19 minutes not even managing a shot at goal let alone one on target!

Since then he has played in the 1st XI against
West Ham getting 2 shots on target (scoring both times)
Arsenal scoring their only goal with his one shot on target
Leicester not having any shots on target
In the Fulham game he played for 25 minutes coming off the bench to yet again only have 1 shot on target.
He has only, out of 20 games, made 9 1st XI appearances having only a 1.3 shots on target average per match this season.
I would want odds of at least 20/1 before I put money on this bet but as ever will wait until the team is announced.