shakey775

A 42nd OG takes this bet forward

A 42 minute Own Goal by Crvena zvezda’s Pankov secured this bet with 3 minutes to spare 🤑 Top Man!!!
I have just done the research on a Paddy Power “Beat the Drop” question which I thought was on the list but turns out I mis-read it ?? Any way the research was Wolves v Leeds Both Teams to Score
Instead of lumping my £1000 pot onto yes I have lumped my £2.62 from the above bet at odds of 1.63. with Paddy Power Click here to go to the bet
Here are the reasons why
Wolves have scored in 3 of their last 4 home games
Leeds have scored in 3 of their last 4 away games
Wolves have only failed to score twice in their last 12 home games (17%)
Leeds have only failed to score once in the 12 away games this season (8%)
Wolves have conceded at least one goal in 75% of their home matches
Leeds have conceded at least one goal in 67% of their away Matches
One blot on this landscape is that Leeds failed to score in the previous meeting of these two teams at Elland Rd.

If you are new to my blog this may seem a bit random so please check out my previous blogs

£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
Bet 4 £1 – £100 Using Betfair’s Time of First Goal Market
£1 – £100 using Time of first goal market on betfair “Obituary”

£1 – £100 using Time of first goal market on betfair “Obituary”

Absolutely devastated that it took 31 minutes for Man City to score. My life is in tatters and in a fit of vengeful rage I backed 1st half Over 0.5 goals in the Crvena Zvezda v AC milan with Paddy Power using my last £1.87 (they wont let me put more than a fiver on anyway) boosting it to 1.4 with my last odds boost – That will show them !!

Beat The Drop My Free Entry No2

After Falling at the second question last time This is the account of my second try at Paddy Powers infuriatingly difficult “Beat The Drop”
Question 1 of 12
Wolfberger v Tottenham
Will both Teams Score?

This is the 1st Leg of the 16th Finals and is being played on neutral ground Puskás Aréna (Budapest) due to europe spitting their dummy out and closing borders to our sportsmen and women. How children behave eh?
Tottenham have played 6 games and have only failed to score once which was in the game v Antwerp, Wolfsberger have also played 6 games (unsurprisingly) and have failed to score twice (in both legs against Dynamo Zagreb)
Even though Wolfsberger is billed at home the stats should be taken into consideration for 2 away teams (in my view), They do seem to score most of their goals in the second half (73% of Wolfsberger AC’s goals have been scored in the second half) and have scored in 88% of their away matches (Austria – Bundesliga). They are currently 6th in the Austria – Bundesliga.
Tottenham have a 50% clean sheet rate from all their europa league games but more importantly have a 0% rate when playing away (ie they concede every time they have played away so far) Tottenham have scored in 73% of their away matches (premiership) They are currently 9th in the Premiership Table.

I have Lumped all £1000 on both teams scoring.

Bet 4 £1 – £100 Using Betfair’s Time of First Goal Market

Bet 4, Is it too much to hope for a 3rd time run with Manchester City. They are being hosted by Everton tonight in what should be, hopefully, an exciting end to end goal fest 🙂
Man City have scored 21 goals this season while playing away and 10 of these were scored in the first 30 minutes. Everton have shown that while at home they cant score in the opening stages (0-15 mins) They have scored 6 from their 16 home goals in the 16th to 30th minute of games. Something tat is not in my favour with this bet is that neither teams concede much in the early stages. When up against teams of equal league standing as their opponents, Manchester City can score early goals as in the New year clash with Chelsea when 2 goals were scored in the 1st 30 mins. Everton also have the ability to score and concede early against teams higher in the league such as Man Utd (19 and 25 mins) Chelsea (22 Mins) Liverpool (3 and 19 mins) Leicester City (10 and 16 mins)
The bets will be divided up as follows:
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.7 Stake £1.37
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.6 Stake £1.40
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.0 Stake £1.08
This will give a profit of £2.50 should anyone score in the first 30 mins
I am still not able to put these bets on directly with Betfair as the individual stake is still less than £2.00 so onto the trusty Bet Angel software

Chelsea, Athletic Bilbao and Gent all to Win

Ladbrokes must be nervous about sticking another no hoper treble up so have gone for 2 odds on matches and an even money away game, so they are just making it look more punter friendly. Price offered by Ladbrokes is 3.75 from 3.5 If you create this treble on Smarkets you will get 4.0 but there is 2% commision to pay if it wins. Just a quick note – If you create this treble with Ladbrokes you will get 3.70 so where they get 3.5 from is anyone’s guess, although a boost from 3.7 to 3.75 is a bit pathetic to look at on the screen.
Anyway to business, Chelsea host Newcastle and victory tonight would displace out of form Liverpool, who incidentally have only gained one point more than Newcastle from the last 8 games. Chelsea have comfortably beaten all the teams at the lower end of the premiership with the exception of West Brom. It is hard to oppose Chelsea tonight but then it was harder to oppose Man Utd yesterday!
Athletic Bilbao are away to Cadiz and would presume that this is the match Ladbrokes are relying on to snatch your cash. Bilbao are 11th in the league, Cadiz 15th. Bilbao, when playing away this season have scored just 6 points from the 10 games planting them firmly in the bottom spot of the “Away” table. Cadiz, in fairness, don’t fair much better when at home by earning just 10 points from 11 home games. Lost games and draws seem to plague Bilbao when playing bottom third league sides and I will be surprised should they pull a victoy out of this hat tonight.
Gent! What a beautiful city. I used to play Rugby in “Ghent” every Sunday when I was serving in Dusseldorf in the late 80s’. Their football seems to be a bit mediocre at the moment however. Hosting 16th place Mouscron should be a matter of course and odds of 1.44 for a home win do amplify this, but recent form would contradict this as Mouscron are slightly ahead in terms of points earned from the last 8 games.
Gent have two Draws against the 15th and 14th placed sides and a 1-2 loss when they hosted 13th Place Kortrijk (If anyone knows how to pronounce that good for you) The odds are too short for the recent form and instead of putting money on this treble I will probably Lay Gent on the exchange for half the risk.
Good luck with any bets you choose to make but these odds are too short for my taste

£1 to £100 post just been updated

Click the link to get the Prices and stakes

£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.

Wolves, Celtic and Brentford All to Win

Ladbrokes have Boosted this little trio to 8.5 (15/2) from 7.5 (13/2), as with all bookies boosted bets caution should be exercised as we should assume that they know something we don’t.
First up then is the Premiership clash Southampton v Wolves game, kicking off at 12:00
Southampton’s recent home form (Last 4 home games) in the league reads as follows LLWD with the win being against the mighty Liverpool but with only 2 goals in those 4 matches they seem to have lost some drive. Wolves don’t seem to be faring much better with 2 losses and 2 drawn matches from their last 4 away games, they too are short on goals, with only 3 being scored and all of those in the 3-3 draw with Brighton. Away wins for Wolves against Arsenal (one place above Southampton) and Leeds Utd (2 places above Southampton) and Sheffield Utd (Flat Bottom) are the only “green” on a sea of red having been defeated when away, number no less than 6. Southampton have managed to keep a clean sheet in 55% of home games in contrast to Wolves 27% and actually failing to score in 55% of their away games. Wolves have conceded the biggest majority of goals in the 1st 15 minutes of the second half. With Odds of 3.3 for wolves to win the bookies don’t think they will Win either.
On to the Scottish Premiership where 2nd place Celtic are away to 8th place St Johnstone. A typical 1st quarter all out attack by Celtic may well be thwarted by St Johnstone’ s ability to somehow keep their opponents from scoring in the first 30 minutes or so. (In the 1st 30 minutes of all home games St Johnstone have only conceded 2 goals) Celtics goalscoring prowess comes to the fore however, as they seem to score more goals in the last 15 minutes netting the ball 13 times in this time segment in all away matches. Celtic’s ability to win this game is undisputed and Away win odds of 1.61 reflect this
Brentford are going to want to reclaim their top spot in the Championship League after Norwich scored a rash of goals yesterday against Stoke City and recent form supports this outcome unequivocally having won all but one of their last 8 games which was a 1-1 draw away at Swansea (another in-form team) Brentford enjoy scoring early goals and will, undoubtedly put Barnsley on the back foot should this happen in this game. Their previous meeting back in November ended well for Brentford winng the away fixture 0-1.
These are all lunchtime fixtures and I apologise for my tardiness this morning. If you have already staked money on this boosted bet I sincerely hope that Wolves and Co. do the business for you. As for my Part I won’t and can’t (Max stake still £0.00 🙂 ) be risking my money
Good luck whatever you decide.

£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.

Bet No 2 won thanks to a 23rd-minute penalty

Betornot

With most of my bookmaker accounts having restricted stakes imposed on them this exercise would be impossible for me to accomplish. I started this with the Swansea v Man City game on 10th Feb 2021
Using a dutching calculator, worked out the separate stakes needed to win an equal profit from the 3 bets representing the first 30 minutes
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.3 Stake 37p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 36p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.0 Stake 27p

Total £1.00 staked- Goal scored in 29th minute 🙂 Bet paid Profit 66p

Anyone wondering how I managed to get small stakes on I used a tool called BetAngel Basic which is a free trading software. and a very useful tool it is too
it can be downloaded from here

Post Update
Manchester City was again the match of choice to progress through…

View original post 155 more words

Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win

Crystal Palace can always be relied on not to deliver 🙂

Betornot

Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 10.0 (9/1) to 11.0 (10/1). Norwich are the only odds on favourite of the trio and I will start with them.
Norwich will be looking to reclaim their top spot in the championship with a win against 9th placed Stoke City. Norwich, at home, have won 2 (Bristol City 2-0 Barnsley 1-0) and drawn 2 (Middlesbrough 0-0, QPR 1-1) while skoke have a 100% draw rate in their last 4 away games suggesting a worrying pattern perhaps for Norwich City. Their defeat at the hands of Swansea last week may just have knocked their confidence a trifle. Norwich however are not without ability and have managed 12 points from 8 games while Stoke have only topped up their points total by only 6 in the same number of games. Away defeats for Stoke when playing top of the league sides do seem to have…

View original post 469 more words

£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.

Anyone wondering how I managed to get small stakes on I used a tool called BetAngel Basic which is a free trading software. and a very useful tool it is too
it can be downloaded from here

Bet Angel software

Post Update
Manchester City was again the match of choice to progress through to the next level
£1.66 being Dutched on the first goal between the first 30 minutes markets on Betfair Exchanage
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.7 Stake 60p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.7 Stake 60p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.2 Stake 46p

Still getting to grips with this wordpress software The winning bet amount is £2.39 🙂 46p x (6.2-1)

In the 23rd Minute Rodri scored from the penalty spot and I got paid ( at the end of the match) 🙂
In the calculation software I Inputted a 2% commision rate (I am on the basic package couldn’t see the point of paying 5% and not getting any benefits 😉 ) Any way I only ended up paying 1.68% of my total winnings of £1.19 (£2.39 – 60p – 60p = £1.19) This was 2p
I am now £1.37 in profit so with my starting quid £2.37 goes on the next match

Post Update 13:33 14 Feb 2020
Going to stake £2.37 on the West Brom v Man Utd Game at 2:00pm
Using the trusty dutching calculator from Oddsmonkey determine the following stakes
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 86p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 86p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.0 Stake 65p
Keep everything crossed 👍🤞🤞🤞

A 2nd Minute goal from West Brom secured bet No 3 for a profit of £1.48
Add this to the £2.37 previous profit gets a total of £3.85