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Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win

Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 10.0 (9/1) to 11.0 (10/1). Norwich are the only odds on favourite of the trio and I will start with them.
Norwich will be looking to reclaim their top spot in the championship with a win against 9th placed Stoke City. Norwich, at home, have won 2 (Bristol City 2-0 Barnsley 1-0) and drawn 2 (Middlesbrough 0-0, QPR 1-1) while skoke have a 100% draw rate in their last 4 away games suggesting a worrying pattern perhaps for Norwich City. Their defeat at the hands of Swansea last week may just have knocked their confidence a trifle. Norwich however are not without ability and have managed 12 points from 8 games while Stoke have only topped up their points total by only 6 in the same number of games. Away defeats for Stoke when playing top of the league sides do seem to have a trend with the exception of reading which they won 0-3 Norwich have some good wins under their belt when playing mid table sides winning to nil against Bristol City, Cardiff City and Barnsley. I would think that on previous form Norwich should win this but not until the last quarter of the game where they seem to score most of their goals.

Cardiff City are hosting Penalty Plagued Coventry City today and should be an interesting game. With home odds of 2.1 Ladbrokes are being the most generous bookie with most others offering 2.0 – 2.05. This does actually look a promising leg of the treble as Coventry City do seem to be prone to conceding goals through penalties with no less than 7 being awarded against the Sky Blues since September, suggesting a defensive weakness that Cardiff may take advantage of, turning the tables on their 1-0 defeat last November when these two teams last met. It does look like a win for Cardiff would put them nearer safety and into the top half of the Championship League. Coventry are far from safe, and desperation causes mistakes which they have proved they make!

As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Ladbrokes are offering 2.60 (0.15 more than William Hill as I mentioned in my previous post https://bet-or-not.com/2021/02/13/rangers-crystal-palace-and-watford-all-to-win/ ) on a home win against 3.0 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.

This treble is as always a risk as it has been boosted by the bookie (always suspect!!)
As Ladbrokes have imposed a maximum stake of £0.00 on my account I will not be taking the risk myself (Yes that’s right A BIG FAT ZERO! they live in fear of me 🙂 )

The best of Luck with whatever you decide 🙂

Rangers, Crystal Palace and Watford all to win

First up Today is William Hills Super Odds – Saturday 3pm Treble
Max stake on this is a fiver and this on its own suggests to the unsuspecting punter that the bookie is frightened that the bet will win. Whereas if you scroll down the page a bit to the enhanced Odds section bigger odds specials exist with no stake restrictions!!
Enough bookie psychology, down to facts
Rangers are flying high at the top of the Scottish Premiership and host 10th place (out of 12) Kilmarnock. The goalscoring ability of rangers at present are with out precedence, managing an average strike rate of 3 goals per match when playing at home, Kilmarnock do struggle a little as they have only managed to score 9 goals away this season. Odds for a rangers win today are 1.15 with Hills. That is quite a carrot on the end of the stick. I will skip Crystal Palace for a minute and look towards the other short priced selection.
Watford are also at home today to Bristol City, will want to collect some points today after a three match streak of only picking up 2 points with goalless draws against Coventry City and Millwall and perhaps an inexcusable defeat at the hands of QPR. 3 points today will keep them level with Reading (who are likely to beat Millwall today) in that all important promotion play-off zone. Watford’s home record while playing mid table teams such as Bristol are Mostly wins with two notable losses One against QPR as I mentioned above and the other against Cardiff City in one of the few matches where Watford failed to score at all. Bristol City on the other hand undoubtedly struggle against teams from the top of the table when away losing to Brentford (3-2), Norwich (2-0), Reading (3-1) and Bournemouth (1-0).
Watford’s defensive posture is second only to Swansea having conceded only 20 goals from 28 games played (Swansea have only conceded 15!). While their offensive record is similar to Bristols, having scored 31 goals to Bristols 29 from the same number (28) of games. Watford seem to be quick goal merchants catching their opponents off guard at the beginning of halves as they, when playing at home, scored 6 in minutes 0-15 and 7 in minutes 46-60. Bristol do have a bigger proportion of conceded goals when away in minutes 0-15 so a big possibility of a morale destroying goal by Watford would Indubitably help their cause.
As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Hill are offering 2.45 on a home win against 3.1 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.

This treble has been boosted from 3/1 (which is very generous as should you put these games into a treble on your betslip you would get 7/2!!) to 5/1

these are the facts and you can make up your own mind
Good Luck with whatever you Decide

Preston, Hearts and RB Leipzig All to Win

Ladbrokes are again offering dismal odds on this Treble of 7.0 (6/1) boosted from 6.0 (5/1), If you must put money on these three winning go to Smarkets where you will get 8.2 (at the time of writing this) Preston are away to Blackburn Rovers in a derby with no fans. A win for Preston would see them level on points with Blackburn but Blackburn will still have a game in hand having played only 27 games so far to Preston’s 28. On form, the 2 teams are pretty even with Blackburn earning 11 points from the last 8 games to Preston’s 10 points. Preston doesn’t have a bad record when playing teams in the upper half of the league when playing away. A convincing 3-0 win against 5th place Reading and 3-2 win v 6th placed Bournemouth, however, are a little overshadowed by defeats at the hands (or feet) of 14th placed Luton Town (3-0), 12th placed Barnsley (2-1) and 19th Placed Rotherham (2-1) 6 days ago. Unfortunately, Preston seems to have a problem when they have conceded an early goal, and Blackburn has scored 15 – 1st half goals this season and can quite obviously administer the coup de gras by scoring the same number of goals in the last 15 minutes when the opposition heads are down. Blackburn on the other hand has drawn against teams in similar league positions and wins against league teams Barnsley down to QPR (13th to 16th). Ladbrokes themselves offer odds of 3.75 for Preston against odds of 1.87 for Blackburn.
Onto the Scottish Championship now, where league leaders Hearts take on Queen of the South. When these two met on the 12th Dec 2020 the score was 6-1 and was one of 12 wins so far from 15 games. They have scored in every match played this season but only have 4 clean sheets and these were against, in date order, Alloa, Greenock, Raith Rovers and Ayr Utd.
This, even though they are away tonight would undoubtably be the banker of the trio!
The Bundesliga’s Leipzig, currently 2nd in the league, are at home to Augsburg. A void of 19 points separate these two sides which isnt surprising as Leipzig have earned 14 points from the last 8 games compared to Augsburgs 6 points. If we look at just home games for Leipzig they have 25 points from 10 games played while Augsburg playing away 9 times have just 11 points to their name. Without doubt Leipzig are a strong home side having scored in every home game bar one which was againt Koln which ended in a 0-0 draw. Leipzigs odds of 1.25 to win make this another leg Ladbrokes expect to lose on. The big question therefore is are you willing to stake money on an out of form Preston beating a slightly more (not much) in form Blackburn away with no fans?

Better Not!

Abraham 2+ shots on target & Hudson-Odoi 1+ shot on target

Todays dissection comes from the Barnsley v Chelsea F.A.Cup tie being played tonight. Sky bet has boosted this bet from 3.5 (5/2) to 6.0 (5/1) (Well it is called the “Double Up Boost”).
The helpful people at Skybet added this to the bet description

Abraham has performed well in the FA Cup this season, scoring a hat-trick in the last round against Luton
Hudson-Odoi’s form has improved under Tuchel and he’ll continue to look to impress here

As ever this is undoubtedly true but I will dig a little deeper and see what turns up 🙂
Firstly, lets have a peek into Mr Abraham.
William Hill did a similar Boost involving just Abraham in the Wolves Game on Jan 27 for which I did a blog on (click the link below and it will open in a new window)
Tammy Abraham to have OVER 2 shots on target
He played for 13 minutes in that game!! and I will revise my opinion on what the odds should have been boosted to – to 100/1 🙂
Chelsea have played 3 games since then winning all 3. In the first game v Burnley He played for 45 minutes having just one touch in the box – no blocked shots, no shots on target – not even a shot at all!!? In the Tottenham game however, it was completely different – He didn’t play at all!!
Another no show v Sheffield begs the question, Does he still play for Chelsea? 🙂

Callum Hudson-Odoi’s F.A. Cup career this season is 1 appearance and 1 substitution appearance totaling 100 minutes on the pitch and having an average 0.9 shots on target per 90 mins. With no shots on target in the last round of the F.A. Cup v Luton and only 20 minutes on the pitch ironically it was Tammy Abraham that had 3 shots on target finding the back of the net with all of them! Morecambe was Chelsea’s 4th round tie and with a total of 80 minutes played, Hudson-Odoi scored in the 49th minute with his only shot on target. In the 3 matches mentioned above, the Burnley game saw him playing for 73 minutes and 1 shot on target. His spell of 65 minutes against Tottenham yielded zero shots on target from 3 shots at goal and, with only 28 minutes left of the Sheffield game came on from the bench to have absolutely no bearing on the match at all!
It does seem that these two guys spend more time off the pitch than on it and apart from a brief flare of eye-popping awesome play, thats all they have.
This bet would make a good twilight zone story 🙂

Man Utd, Inter Milan and Real Madrid all to win

Today Ladbrokes has a “Favourites Treble” on offer. They have boosted the bet from 6.0 to 6.5. Man Utd and Real Madrid are odds on favs but Inter are 2.3 (13/10) Both the Man Utd and Inter games are cup matches while the Real Madrid game is La Liga.

Man Utd play West Ham in the F.A.Cup and are currently 1.67 with Ladbrokes.
Having knocked out Watford 1-0 and Liverpool 3-2 neither game was a convincing win especially the Watford result. West Ham are coming into this cup tie on the back of a goalless draw against Fulham.
Man Utd have a couple of injury absentees with notably Pogba out with a thigh injury and Phil Jones with a long standing knee problem.

Inter Milan take on Juventus Away in the Coppa Italia with an away goal deficit after Juventus beat them 1-2 in the first leg. Inter will have to pull something out of the hat for this one and I suspect Juventus being at home will be satisfied with a draw.
La Liga is the destination for the final leg of this treble and 3rd place Real Madrid take on 13th place Getafe at home. Real are pushing for the top while it seems Getafe while having some good results are marking time mid-table. This match feels more the banker of the 3 and the odds of 1.53 reflect that.
I think that this treble may be trouble
Betternot 🙂

Benevento v Sampdoria

This blog is going to look at the Beat the Drop question posed by Paddy Power and will be my Question No 2. The conundrum is will there be 3 or more goals in the match?
This is a mid table clash with both teams looking safe from relegation but not much hope of a Champions League spot. With a total goals scored in a match question perhaps we should look at goals conceded by each team to start with. Benevento have conceded goals in both halves in 40% of matches when playing at home and Sampdoria just 30% when playing away. This in itself doesn’t mean that they don’t let in more than one goal 60% and 70% of the time. The following stats do seem to back these figures up as Benevento when at home concede the most goals between minutes 16-30 and 61-75 suggesting lapses half way through each half. Sampdoria on the other hand let in the most goals between 61-75 minutes.
Benevento do make most of their substitutions after about the 75th minute as shown below in the last 5 matches
v Cagliari – Insigne 72′ Sau 76′ Lapadura 76′
v Atalanta – Foulon 46′ Ionita 80′ Dabo 58′ Sau 58′ Lapadula 58′
v Crotone – Improa 75′ Tuia 75′ Ionita 65′ Insigne 40′ Sau 65′
v Torino – Tello 68′ Ionita 84′ Lapadula 84′ Caprari 76′
v Inter – Caldirola 60′ Improta 70′ Ionita 70′ Viola 60′ Caprari 76′
N.B The substitutions in the Atalanta game proved to be a bit of a blunder as Atalanta put 3 goals past them in the last 21 minutes 🙂

Sampdoria have pretty much a similar substitutions policy as the following last 5 matches show
v Inter – Tonelli 68′ Silva 75′ Jankto 75′ Balde 90 + 2′
v Spezia – Jankto 79′ Candreva 85′ Damsgaard 79′ Balde 86′
v Udinese – Ekdal 85′ Silva 73′ Damsgaard 62′ Verre 62′ Quagliarella 62′
v Parma – Candreva 82′ Silva 82′ Ramirez 70′ Balde 58′ Quagliarella 70′
v Juventus – Candreva 81′ Silva 63′ Quagliarella 68′ Balde 68′

Niether team reply quickly to goals scored against them letting play carry on to take its natural course. In other words they don’t mount an effective counterattack against their opponents but this doesnt strike as detrimental to the amount of goals scored. As the following scorelines show in matches against teams also in mid table a shortage of goals never seems a problem
Beneventos’ 5 home games v Mid table sides
v Lazio 1-1
v Genoa 2-0
v Spezia 0-3
v Bologna 1-0
v Torino 2-2
Sampdorias’ 5 away games v Mid table sides
v Atalanta 1-3
v Hellas 1-2
v Firentina 1-2
v Spezia 2-1
v Torino 2-2

Sampdoria have conceded in everyone of there away games against similar matched sides and in every case 3 or more goals have been scored.

Unlike the English Premiership, Serie A games are much more spaced out allowing players to take proper rests and as such will be more match fit than their English counterparts.
Paddy Power is quoting odds of 1.73 for over 2.5 goals in this mach which seems to bare out the liklihood of an above average Goal rate.

Mohamed Salah, Raheem Sterling & Mason Mount each to have 1 or more shots on target

This one looks interesting from Paddy Power, they have boosted this bet from 4.0 (3/1) to 6.0 (5/1). As is usual with Paddy Power they have not given any pointers as to past performances with all players playing for different teams in two seperate games.

Mo Salah is currently the leading premiership goal scorer and averages 3.7 shots at goal converting that into 1.7 shots on target. Liverpool play Man City at Anfield on Sunday and should prove to be an exciting match as they will both be looking to advance their respective positions in the league. A disappointing performance by Liverpool against Brighton will galvanise the team effort. That said however Salah did have 4 attempts at goal in that match having 2 of them blocked but unfortunately none were on target. His performance against the reverse fixture at Etihad Stadium did see him have 2 attempts at goal with one being on target. This bet has ensured that we cannot wait to see the team sheets so will Salah start this game as Liverpool take on Leicester City next Saturday? I suspect that he will as it is an opportunity not to be missed as Man City play Swansea City in the F.A. Cup in 3 days and as such will Pep Guardiola rest some of his players in preparation.

Mason Mount is Chelsea’s attacking Midfielder with an average shots on target figure of 0.6. Having scored only twice this season in the premiership and having 19 1st team appearances his ability to fulfil his part of the bet seems dubious. Chelsea play Sheffield Utd Away late Sunday night and their last meeting at Stamford Bridge saw Chelsea put 4 goals past the Sheffield keeper but none were scored by Mount but he did manage a shot on target and 2 blocked shots. Chelsea also have an F.A. Cup clash next week against Barnsley. His performance against Tottenham 3 days ago was better than most with 3 shots at goal getting one on target. Going back further to the 2-0 win over Burnley, he still seemed to struggle to get on target after 4 attempts. I think that this choice of player by P.P. is the one that they hope to fail his performances against sides that are defensively weaker than Chelsea can be lack-lustre at best.

Last but by no means least is Raheem Sterling who’s’ average shots on goal are 2.4 with 1.1 shots on target match average. In the match at the Etihad Stadium he didnt score for City as Salah scored for Liverpool but he did manage a shot on target. His ability to score goals is beyond doubt as he has 7 to his credit this premiership season. A bit of a brutal schedule this week for Man City may see some substitutions in the City ranks so again perhaps a clever selection by Paddy Power.

Paddy power have no doubt put this bet up early to entice the Saturday Morning punters to perhaps punt a small stake before any team sheets are posted. Will probably risk a quid to win 5 but no more 🙂

Norwich, Inter Milan and Valladolid All to Win

I am afraid that Ladbrokes Friday Night Treble is the subject of todays Blog again! I will grant that they have made it very attractive by boosting the odds to 13.0 (12/1) and by picking teams which are all above their opponents in their respective leagues. However all the teams in question are all playing away, and Norwich have had a particular brutal match Itinerary in the past week. Anyway lets have a look at the stats.

First up is Norwich City. As I mentioned above they have played 3 matches in the last 7 days, the 2 league matches ending in goalless draws and a 1-0 defeat in the F.A. Cup. Not too inspiring so far! Swansea on the other hand have had a relatively huge break of 6 days since their win against Rotherham on Jan 30th. Norwich Manager, Daniel Farke is quoted as saying “This game is no more important than any other” and “We’re going to Swansea and we’re going to try our best in a difficult situation, this is our third game in six days.” I tend to disagree with this statement as Swansea are just 5 points behind Norwich going into this game with a game in hand and better rested. To me this sounds like he already has his excuses ready!
Norwich City are in a precarious position at the top of the league and while automatic promotion seems unlikely at the moment a place in the playoffs is still on the cards but this game is crucial to that goal. Given their recent form perhaps a draw would be a bonus!

Inter Milan are currently 2nd in the League and just 2 points behind AC Milan. Their opponents are 11th place Fiorentina who from the last 4 home games won 2 and drawn 2 albeit against teams who are below them in the League with the exception of Hellas Verona who are 2 places above but points have been earned from all 4 games. Inter Milan’s recent form from the last 4 league away games are 1 win 2 draws and a loss, this coming from 10th place Sampdoria with the most recent match being a goalless draw against 13th place Udinese. A 2-1 defeat in the Copa Italia 3 days ago against Juventus may also be a factor in how Inter play tonight. They certainly have the opportunity to take top spot tonight but with Fiorentina needing to keep the momentum going Inter cannot rest on their laurels in this game.

Finally the tour of Europe ends with this 3rd leg of the treble in Italy and the focus on La Liga’s 16th placed side Valladolid. They play 18th place Alaves in what to all intents and purposes a battle to climb from relegation. Valladolid have, in the last 4 away matches, come away with without defeat. Alaves on the other hand have a bit of an opposite dilemma of having a 3-match losing streak at home. This match is, even though both teams are languishing at the bottom end of La Liga, to my mind probably the banker 🙂

To Bet Or Not – Better Not!

Rangers, Napoli and Lyon all To Win

Ladbrokes are the target treble today again. They have boosted this treble from 4.0 (3/1) to 4.5 (7/2) on the Smarkets exchange you can get 4.8 (Which is very nearly 4/1)
Rangers seem to be the banker leg of this treble and a win tonight will add a further 3 point to their 72 points. With a 100% scoring rate you would hope that there will be plenty of goals.

In the 2nd leg of this treble, 5th place Napoli take on 7th placed Atalanta in Italy’s Coppa Italia clash tonight. Recent form in the league (Serie A) from the last 8 games have seen 4 wins 1 draw and 3 Losses for Napoli but Atalanta have a slightly better record of 4 wins 3 draws and only one Loss which was quite a spanking by 6th place Lazio (1-3). Napoli’s record against similarly matched opponents (3 above and 3 below) includes a 4-0 drubbing against Roma a 1-0 loss against Inter Milan losing to Lazio 2-0 but in the last clash with Atalanta, last October, stuffing them 4-1. Napoli seems to have quite a solid record when playing at home. Atalanta, on the other hand, seems to be content with draws when playing away. As far as this Cup Match goes Napoli’s two games so far in this competition have been 3-2 v Serie B side Empoli and 4-2 against Serie A Side 16th place Spezia. Atalanta’s cup record is a bit more impressive however and consists of knocking out Serie A sides Lazio and Cagliari from the competition with 3-2 and 3-1 scorelines respectively. The Lazio game saw Atalanta have a red card AND a missed penalty! It is plain that both of these teams have ample ability of scoring goals so predicting which side will win is difficult.

The final leg of this conundrum involves the French Ligue 1 clash of Dijon v Lyon. Lyon are at present snapping at the heels of 1st place Lille and a win tonight might just boost them into top spot if Lille draw against Bordeaux. Dijon are most definitely looking at relegation this season with a home record of only 6 points from 11 games. A slightly worrying fact is that Lyon earlier in the season only managed a 1-1 draw against 18th Lorient but this seems to be just a blot on the landscape as Lyon had 6 shots on target and 3 blocked shots so Lorient just had an outstanding defence that day.

The sticking point in this bet is without doubt the Coppa Italia match and creating a new treble by replacing a Napoli win with over 2.5 goals may be prudent if you wanted to. But the aim of this blog is to pick holes in these so called boosted bets and I think I have achieved this.

Watford, Betis and Sporting Lisbon All T Win

Ladbrokes have boosted this Bet to 9.5 (17/2) from 9.0 (8/1) So Generous!!
Using Smarkets to find a Lay Price I find that the price should be closer to 11.0 (10/1) This is Ladbrokes!

Watford are hosting QPR tonight and will move into 3rd place behind Swansea with a win tonight. Form against teams in a similar position to QPR is favourable with 3-2 against Coventry and 2-0 against Rotherham. QPR on the other hand are struggling to stay clear of the relegation zone and are clearly finding this league difficult. Defeats from Barnsley 3-0 and Brentford 2-1 have proved this side have no problem conceding goals. Slightly in their favour are a 1-1 draw against league leaders Norwich who Watford beat 1-0, a goalless draw with Bournemouth however seem to suggest they have difficulty scoring! This has all the hallmarks of a low scoring game with perhaps Watford managing to scrape 3 points from it.

Betis take on Osasuna in a La Liga clash that is perhaps not the most evenly matched contest today. Betis have had convincing wins over all of the bottom third teams in the league with the exception of a 0-2 spanking by Eibar who are currently laying 15th two places above Osasuna. In complete contrast Osasuna have been beaten resoundingly by most of the upper echelon of the league with the notable win against Granada. Tey are, however, not without goalscoring talents having scored 8 goals in 10 away matches compared with Betis managing 4 more while playing at home. The stats suggest that if they get through the first 15 minutes without conceding, but something about this game niggles me. Osasuna have lost their last 9 games away and this one might just be the catalyst to break that habit.

The Portuguese Primeira Liga leaders Sporting CP (Lisbon) is the focus for the last game of this trio and they play Benfica who are currenly 3rd. A win for Lisbon will see them stay 4 points clear as Porto play Rio Ave as well tonight. It is all very tight at the top with everyone having everything to play for. Offensively both teams are pretty evenly matched with Lisbon scoring 33 goals from 15 games, 3 more than Benfica but Benfica are not as efficient in defence conceding 15 goals in as many games 6 more than Lisbon. Neither team has lost a game in the last 8 but Lisbon have only drawn 2 to Benfica’s 3. Both teams drew in their last match and if it wasn’t for the fact that Porto are also playing tonight I would say that this might also be the case again.

The verdict on this Treble to my mind is leave well alone.