Author Archives: shakey775

£1.00 to £100.00 Third Time Lucky

Having lost my £1.77 to a fit of greed, the Wonder Wheel paid out again this time with 5 free spins and £1.04 in winnings. So I begin again courtesy of Mr Power.
That’s as far as i got yesterday before my laptop battery gave a bit of a squeak threatening all sorts of violence unless plugged in pronto. Being banned from my office for the afternoon as my wife had zoom meetings.
Now its 5 am and I am back in the seat of power
Before going for my afternoon sleep,(As I have mentioned before I am a full time truck driver for a meat packing company. Every nights a day in my life), I stuck £1.04 on the over 0.5 goals in the 1st half Frankfurt Market at odds of 1.36 – Heres why
Bremen Hosted Frankfurt Last night in the Bundesliga. From the last 4 away games frankfurt have produced 6 first half goals as well as conceding 2. Bremen have conceded 3 first half goals in the first half in 2 of the last 4 home games.

Derby, Hearts and Eintracht Frankfurt all to Win

Ladbrokes have picked 3 “favourites” to boost tonight with this treble being boosted from 7.5 to 9.0

1st on the list are Derby County who are hosting Nottingham Forest in a Midlands Derby tonight. To say Derby County are favourites can only be because of the fact that they are at home. Derby are currently 18th in the League and in all fairness won their last four home games with only Huddersfield being below them in the championship. Derby County it must be said though, are on fire at the moment gaining 18 points from eight games both home and away.

Nottingham Forest being only two places above Derby have not embarrassed themselves either having won 14 points from their last eight games. They drew two of their matches at home against Barnsley who are 8th and Swansea who are 4th. Nottingham have scored more goals away than Derby have at home. Without fans at this local Derby, we might see a distinct lack of goals with Derby probably scoring first in the first half and Nottingham Forest equalising in the second

Moving North to Inverness where the second leg of this treble will see League leaders Hearts try to extend their lead over Dunfermline in the championship. Playing away hearts have accrued a total of 16 points from the last eight games only dropping points against 4th place Queen of the South drawing 1-1 and losing to Dundee 3-1 who are currently 5th. In the last four home games inverness have drawn three and lost one. All these drawn games have had goals, and this has to be a factor that could cast doubt into hearts expected victory as inverness have an 83% equalising rate!

Frankfurts trip to Bremen concludes this threefold quandary.

Frankfurt are firing on all cylinders at the moment leading the form table by 4 points amassing 22 points from eight games to Bremen’s 9. Frankfurt are averaging 2.18 goals per game this season wow big while playing away in contrast to Bremen’s home goal average of less than one (0.9).
Frankfurt it seems, tends to apply pressure on their hosts midway through the second half where they have scored eight of their 24 away goals. Bremen’s goals scored while playing at home only total 9.  I would expect Bremen to lose tonight

Good luck with whatever you decide

Bettornot!

Greed is not Good!

Due to circumstances beyond my control I was unable to post yesterdays Paddy Power £1.00 to £100 instalment but did however research it and stake the full £1.77 on not one but two Europa League games last night as a greedy double. Here’s why.
“For the next bet (£1.77) I am looking at the Europa League. Looking at match odds of 1.5 or below for the favourite I drew up the following shortlist.
Hoffenheim 1.25 (v Molde)
AC Milan 1.43 (v Crvena Zvezda (Red Star))
Leicester 1.50 (v Slavia Praha)
So with 3 matches to choose from I started with Hoffenheim.
Looking at previous Europa League games this season Hoffenheim have played 7 games, 3 of them being goalless at half-time were both red star legs and the away leg of Slovan Liberec. The home games where at least one goal was scored before half-time saw 2 goals v Slovan Liberec at 22′ and 30′. The home leg v Gent also had 2 first half goals at 21′ and 26′ (note: hindsight is a wonderful thing)
Molde only has 2 0-0 score lines at half time these being Dundalks away leg and the home game against (The Mighty) Arsenal.
In all likelyhood there will be a 1st half goal but over over 05 goals can come from either side and Hoffenheim’s excellent 1st half “clean sheet” record would cut that likely probability in half! (Note: it was at this point that I talked myself out of backing this match – fool!!)
The same cannot be said for A.C. Milano who with the exception of the away leg v Lille have scored or conceded in every game. Their opponents tonight Red Star have also scored or conceded in all but 3 games (both Hoffenheim lags and away to Slovan Liberec) in the 1st half. Serie A League stats back A.C. milan’s early goal scoring capability with only 3 games from 23 ending goalless at half-time. With Red Star also having a similar record (3 from 22) this game became a “no-brainer”.
Finally onto Leicester.
Leicester only just made the shortlist with match odds of 1.50 and this one seemed the banker of bankers (W*****rs of bankers more like)
Leicesters journey to the last 32 has seen them, or their opponents score in all but two games in the first half. These facts made me greedy and after talking myself out of backing the Hoffenheim game decided to back the double! and we all know what happened next!!!

😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

Brentford v Sheffield Wed. over 0.5 goals in half 1

After winning 30p in the Man City game last week from my £1.00 the time has come to plunge into staking the lot onto another likely 1st half goal and out of form Brentford v Sheffield Wed is the game tonight. Sheffield seems to be a football barren city this season with both teams looking at relegation this year. With this I am not looking at form neccessarily (although, away, Sheffield have only 11 points from 15 games and at home Brentford have 29 points from the same number of games) but the early scoring and conceding goals is more to the fore. Defensivly Sheffield have conceded less than Brentford (32-34) but Brentford have scored 56 goals from 31 games to Sheffields 21. This is a huge void but again not indicative of early goals. If we look at the total goals scored by Brentford in the first half of all games played they total 23 against 33 scored in the second half but if we look at just the home games the ratio is a bit closer (14-15). To take this a step further the teams where Brentford tended to score 1st half goals against were lower positioned teams in the league
QPR 14′
Preston 8′
Luton 14′
Wycombe 9′
two exceptions are prevalent however these being Huddersfield 58′ and Coventry 46′ These are all first goals scored and are in actual fact scored by Brentford even though they lost to Preston 2-4
Sheffield Weds 1st half stats against teams from the top half of the league are as follows,
Norwich 60′ 😦
Swansea 27′ 🙂
Bournemouth 44′ 🙂
Stoke 83′ 😦
Millwall 10 🙂
Bristol 59′ 😦
Blackburn 41′ 🙂
Defensively Sheffield are more than capable of holding a game but with Brentford’s recent form in mind and Sheffield being at the bottom of the league I would hope to see Brentford attacking from the off.
A couple of facts to support this bet are
There has been a first-half goal scored in each of Brentford’s last 7 games in a row.
At each meeting of these two sides since 2017/18 season, whether home or away, there has been at least one 1st half goal in every match.

Brighton v Crystal Palace Both teams to score in the 1st Half

Boylesports have boosted this one from 9/2 to 5/1 and it caught my eye as to why!!

Brighton first. In all matches (Home and Away ) Brighton have only managed to score a total of 12 goals in the 1st half. When they are playing at home that figure is cut to 5. Just 5 goals in the 1st half from 12 games!
If we look at who these goals were against, the first was a 40th minute penalty against Man Utd, No 2 was an own goal by J. Livermore of West Brom. 3rd was another penalty , this time in the 26th minute against Southampton. The 4th and 5th goals were actually scored by Brighton players Connolly in the Wolves match and Trossard in the Spurs match. Only 2 of these 5 goals then were actually “in play” Crystal Palace have only given away 2 penalties this season, both were in the second half and both in the same match against Chelsea. They also have not scored any own-goals away from home this season either. If Brighton hope to score in the first half it look like they will have to do it on their own without any help from Palace. Having said all of that however Crystal Palace have conceded 8 goals in the 1st half when playing Away (which is 4 times as many as Brighton have scored without help).
Moving onto Crystal Palaces 1st half scoring prowess shows that when playing away they managed to beat Brightons scoring ability by 1 (including penalties and own-goals) one of these was an own goal and 2 were scored in the same game. Brighton for all of their lack of ability to score goals do seem to have a better record of denying the opposition in the first half, conceding just 6 in the 1st half when playing at home as opposed to 9 in the second half.
A quid would get you a pint and it might be worth it. The likleyhood is that given these teams league positions there may well be a 0-0 draw as has happened a total of 4 times this season with 2 of Brightons coming from the Fulham and Burnley games.

Good Luck in Whatever you decide I will be trying for a free pint 🍺

West Ham, Aston Villa, and Man City all to win

Ladbrokes continue to entice unsuspecting punters to part with their money offering attractive odds on mediocre trebles but sticking an “odds on” banker in there to sweeten it. They have called this one their “Early Kick Off” Treble even though Man City dont kick off until 16:30.
West Ham host Tottenham today in the “Early Kick off” in this North London Derby. I would imagine that confidence is high in the ladbrokes camp as they have priced West Ham at 3.0 (2/1) on a home victory. West Ham’s form figures for the last 8 games (home and away) read WWWWLWDW quite impressive until you look more closely and see who they played. Tottenham’s form is very much less impressive WDWLLLWL. 3 of these losses came at the hands of Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool.
West Ham are without Ogbonna in defence today who is out due to an ankle injury. They are currently sitting in 5th place six points in front of Tottenham who have a game in hand and two wins (Today and v Burnley next weekend would see them vying for a europa league spot. After today Tottenham’s next 3 premiership games see them up against Burnley, Fulham and Crystal Palace. West Ham have both Manchesters and Leeds as their next 3 Premiership clashes.

Aston Villa host Leicester City in the middle leg of this treble and an inform Leicester will be wanting to monopolise on their 3-1 victory over Liverpool last week. A win today will see them claim second place in the league and goals will be crucial to keeping Manchester Utd at bay Again Ladbrokes post odds of 3.1 for the home victory leaving Leicester City firm favourites at 2.37 to win away . Aston Villa’s form at home against teams higher in the league can only be counted from 2 matches the most recent of which against West Ham they Lost 1-3 as a plus however they did give Liverpool a spanking earlier in the season winning 7-2. Leicester on the other hand have solid form against mid-table teams. The second half may well decide this game as Aston Villa where they have conceded 64% of their goals against in contrast to Leicester’s 70% of goals scored away from home come in the second half.
Final game in this trio of trouble comes the 16:30 kick off between League leaders Man City and 9th place Arsenal. The Emirates Stadium will be silent again to fans and you cant help but wonder if this has a profound effect on the players. We all know that the home advantage is worth something but without the encouragement of thousands of devoted fans, can that advantage be canceled or even reversed. Man City do seem to be unstoppable with their last 8 games ending in victory whether they were home or away or playing top or bottom teams. They have only lost one game and drawn 3 all season when playing away. Odds of 1.5 are hard to oppose given their current form but odds of 6.5 for a home win seem excessive.
The odds for this tremble have been boosted from 13.0 (12/1) to 15.0 (14/1).

Good luck in whatever you decide.

Betornot!!

Update on Boosted Odds

23rd Jan West Ham, Brighton and Norwich All to Win Lost +£10
31st Jan Getafe and Sporting Gijon both to win Lost +£10
1st Feb Watford, Betis and Sporting Lisbon All T Win Lost +£10
3rd Feb Rangers, Napoli and Lyon all To Win Lost +£10
5th Feb Norwich, Inter Milan and Valladolid All to Win Lost +£10
9th Feb Man Utd, Inter Milan and Real Madrid all to win Lost +£10
12th Feb Preston, Hearts and RB Leipzig All to Win Lost +£10
13th Feb Rangers, Crystal Palace and Watford all to win Lost +£10
13th Feb Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win Lost +£10
14th Feb Wolves, Celtic and Brentford All to Win Lost +£10
15th Feb Chelsea, Athletic Bilbao and Gent all to Win Won – £30 😭😭
19th Feb Leeds, Real Betis and Lyon all to win Lost +£10
20th Feb Burnley, Liverpool and Fulham All to win Lost +£10

If you were going to back these boosted odds bets with £10.00 and after reading my Blog decided not to You would be £90 better off
Only one of the Boosted odds bets that I have covered actually won and have counted this as a bet that would have netted you £30 if placed on the exchange and therefore counted it as a loss for the sake of these figures. The boost itself would have netted you only £27.50!

Burnley, Liverpool and Fulham All to win

Ladbrokes have several boosted trebles out this morning and Boosted from 6.0 (5/1) to 7.0 (6/1) is burnley, Liverpool and Fulham all to win
Burnley v West Brom
Burnley’s home form is slightly better than West Brom away form. From the last 4 home games Burnley’s form reads DDLW whereas West Brom away form is LLLD.
On the 19th Oct 20 these two teams met in West Bromwich where the game ended goalless. Burnleys home games have however never ended goalless and Neither has West Broms Away games so we can expect to see at least one goal today but from who is anyones guess as proved mid week when an early goal against Man Utd forced a 1-1 goal against the in-form giant. Burnley have come back to win only once at home after their opponents scored first and that was against Aston Villa which ended 3-2. 7 out of 14 of Burnley’s Home game conceded goals came in the first half with 3 of these in the first 15 minutes.
Liverpool v Everton
Anfield see these two mersey stalwarts do battle yet again and because of the Bat Flu, Everton fans will not be at the ground to witness perhaps there first victory at the ground since 1999. It is being shown live however on sky Sports so be prepared for power cuts as 1.4million scousers all tune in at once 😊
Both teams will be out to win and Liverpool perhaps have more to prove with being such out of form in the league. LLLD form from the last 4 home league games have to be improved. An Everton victory today will see the two mersey teams level on points but with Everton having a game in hand and with Everton having conceded less goals away than Liverpool have conceded at home this promises to be a promising battle.

Fulham v Sheffield Utd
Fulham are hosting bottom side Sheffield Utd tonight and today might just be one of those rare times that BetVictor have to Pay up their £2.00 free bet when Fulham win 🤑 If we look at the average points per game (PPG) it can only signal disaster for both sides, with Fulham managing to gain just over 1/2 point per game (0.58) and Sheffield taking an average 0.33 PPG. If you compare this with 10th place Arsenal who average 1.5 PPG and top placed Man City’s 2.25 PPG you get a feel of just how doomed these two sides are. Fulham have managed 1 home win and 3 draws when playing at home whereas Sheffield have an away win and an away draw neither stats being very inspiring. Perhaps BetVictors £2.00 free bet will be safe for another week!
A safer bet than this treble would to put over 1.5 goals for each game into a treble
Burnley Playing at Home Over 1.5 goals 58%
West Brom away Over 1.5 Goals 92%
Liverpool at Home Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Everton Away Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Fulham at Home Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Sheffield Away Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Good luck with whatever you choose to do

Leeds, Real Betis and Lyon all to win

Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 8.5 to 9.5
Lets have a look how the teams stack up
Leeds are away to Wolves tonight and Wolves will be hungry to win this as they would leap Leeds and be snapping at the heels of 10th place Arsenal.
Wolves haven’t lost a game at home against fellow mid table sides in complete contrast to Leeds who have recorded away defeats at the hands (or feet) of Crystal Palace (14th) Arsenal (10th) and Tottenham (9th). Wolves seem to have a habit of conceding the first goal but then rallying to a 60% equalizing rate and then converting that into a win as in the case of the Arsenal game where Pepe scored in the 32nd minute to which Wolves responded in the 45th and 49th minutes. And again when they played Chelsea who scored first in the 49th minute but the match finished in a 2-1 victory for Wolves.
The odds for an away win being 2/1 (3.0) with Ladbrokes seems to suggest that Wolves at 2.3 (13/10) stand a better chance.

Real Betis are hosting Getafe and with the exception of the Eibar game they have won all of their home games against teams lower in the league than them. Getafe have No victories against teams that are above them in the league at all. Real Betis are in quite good form as they have earned 14 points from their last 8 games whereas Getafe have only managed 7, 6 coming from defeating the bottom 2 teams in the league and 1 from a 0-0 draw against 16th placed Alaves! Odds of 2.05 for a home win might be a good bet on its own here and a plus for the treble

Final leg of this boosted treble comes from France. Lyon are being hosted by Brest and victory tonight would see them take a temporary 2nd place in Ligue 1 above PSG (who play Monaco on Sunday)
Lyon have recorded victories against teams in a similar position to Brest but a couple of draws might bring some doubt into this game. To compound this Brest have, while playing at home beaten two of the other top 4 sides Notably a 3-2 win at home and holding top placed Lille to a 0-0 draw away.
I wont be putting any cash on this one either
Good luck in whatever you decide