Author Archives: shakey775

Tammy Abraham to have OVER 2 shots on target

Tonight Chelsea take on Wolves without Lampard at the helm. How will they fair? they are odds on to win with all the bookmakers. William Hill have offered boosted odds of 6.0 (5/1) instead of 5.0 (4/1) that Tammy Abraham will get 3 or more shots on target. At their last meeting at Molineux on 15 Dec 2020 Abraham was on the Bench and played for just 19 minutes not even managing a shot at goal let alone one on target!

Since then he has played in the 1st XI against
West Ham getting 2 shots on target (scoring both times)
Arsenal scoring their only goal with his one shot on target
Leicester not having any shots on target
In the Fulham game he played for 25 minutes coming off the bench to yet again only have 1 shot on target.
He has only, out of 20 games, made 9 1st XI appearances having only a 1.3 shots on target average per match this season.
I would want odds of at least 20/1 before I put money on this bet but as ever will wait until the team is announced.

Ings, Ward-Prowse & Lacazette 1+ shot on Target Each

Tonights boosted bet is courtesy of SkyBet and involves the Southampton v Arsenal Game which Kicks off at 20:15.

They have very considerately provided the following information

  • Ings landed the Featured Price Boost with a shot on target on Saturday against Arsenal.
  • Ward-Prowse had a shot on target last Tuesday against Shrewsbury.
  • Lacazette has had 9 shots on target in his last 5 Premier League games.

The odds for this is at the time of writing 7.0 (6/1) so 10 quid will net you £60

The last time these two teams played each other was Saturday 23 Jan 2021 – Today is 26 Jan 2021 The venue is the same
The three players in question had the following shots
Ings – 4 shots only 1 on target (Played 85 mins )
Ward Prowse 3 shots 0 on target (Played 90 mins)
Lacazette 0 shots 0 on target (Played 18 mins!!)

These simple stats read very differently from the information provided.

Further investigation, therefore, is warranted

Starting with Lacazette
v Newcastle (H) 2 shots on target. played 90 minutes.
v Crystal Palace (H) 0 shots on target. played 81 minutes.
v Newcastle (FA CUP (H)) 0 shots on target. played 18 minutes.
v West Brom (A) 4 shots on target. played 90 minutes.
v Brighton (A) 1 shot on target. played 24 Minutes
v Chelsea (H) 2 shots on target (one was a penalty) played 90 Minutes
This paints, perhaps, a truer picture of the fact that when he actually makes the 1st XI there is more likelihood of him taking a couple of shots and getting them on target. If he is not even on the starting sheet then this is a great cause for concern on taking up this bet.

Next up Ings
v Shrewsbury DNP (Did Not Play)
v Leicester DNP
v Liverpool 2 shots on target (one Goal) played 77 minutes

Finally Ward-Prowse
v Shrewsbury 1 shot on target. played 90 minutes
v Leicester 0 shots on target. played 90 minutes
v Liverpool 0 shots on target Played 90 minutes

These facts are enough to convince me not to spend a tenner here 🙂

Joe Jacobson to be Booked

Browsing through the Paddy Power site this morning I came upon Three Tipster bets for the Tottenham v Wycombe Game tonight (tipster is employed by PP! The one that caught my eye was Joe Jacobson to be booked. The Spiel by PP trader goes along these lines
Jacobson has been booked FIVE times this season.
This is very true and they were given in the following Championship Matches
Sheffield Utd
Stoke City
Barnsley
QPR
Bristol City
His average fouls per 90 mins however is 1.2!
The last time he got a Yellow Card in the F.A. Cup was on 3 dec 2017 against Leatherhead. This is one of only 3 Yellows he has collected in his total appearances for Wycombe in the F.A Cup Competitions since 2015/16.
Although he does have the most Yellow Cards for Wycombe this season this is from 22 appearances.
The odds, unsurprisingly are quite attractive at 5.0 (4/1) but my tenner wont be going on this bet thanks anyway for the offer mr pp 🙂

West Ham, Brighton and Norwich All to Win

Today I am looking at the SkyBet Saturday Soccer Price Boost. It is West Ham, Brighton all to win boosted from 7/2 to 5/1. West Ham are playing Doncaster at Home, Brighton are also at home playing Blackpool and Norwich are away at Barnsley. The “Helpful Information” provided by SkyBet relates to the Super 6 game and the percentage of players that have picked the above teams in their selections. These are as follows.
West Ham 98%
Brighton 90%
Norwich 81%
These figures were correct as of 19:00 21/01/2021

The following facts were also published on the day

  • West Ham have won their last 4 games in all competitions
  • Brighton will be in a confident mood after a 1-0 win over Leeds last weekend
  • Norwich have won their last 4 games in all competitions and ran out 1-0 winners over Barnsley in the league at the beginning of January


These figures were correct as of 19:00 21/01/2021

Lets see if I can see why SkyBet have chosen these particular matches

West Ham v Doncaster
West Ham, being 7th in the premiership at the moment, are plainly favourites to win this match as Doncaster Rovers are 4th in League One. But this is the F.A. Cup so a serious look at previous form is warrented . West Ham have only played one game so far in this competition, which they won, but only by 1 goal in the 83rd minute against Stockport County, a fifth tier side!
Doncaster have played 3 matches in the F.A.Cup this year all being away scoring 8 goals and conceding just 2. The victories were over United of Manchester, Carlisle United and Doncaster Rovers.

Brighton and Hove Albion v Blackpool
Newport County held Brighton to a 1-1 Draw in the 3rd round with Brighton finally winning on penalties.
Blackpool on the other hand have only conceded 2 goals in the cup this year. This was against West Bromwich Albion in the 3rd Round finally winning on penalties. The other 2 games were against Eastbourne and Harrogate which finished 0-3 and 0-4 respectively.

Barnsley v Norwich City
Both of these teams are in the Championship League albeit at opposite ends. Barnsley progressed to the 4th round by beating Tranmere Rovers 2-0.
Norwich City, being at the top of the Championship League, will be clear favourites in this contest especially dispatching Coventry City 2-0 in the last round

At the time of writing this none of the team sheets had been released. But I think that SkyBet have been very canny with their match selections. The only game that I would put any substantial amount of cash on would be Norwich to beat Barnsley.

Beat The Drop

Beat the drop is a free game offered by Paddy Power where you answer 12 questions to win £1000 (your Starting Bank). Each day has several different questions from which it is entirely your choice which to answer The idea is that you can gamble all or a portion of your “bank” and if you get to the 12th question and answer it right then you win your pot. Each question has 2 possible outcomes and you are able to split the pot 50/50. If you were to do this then you would win a guaranteed 24p Today is the 22 January 2021 and the first question on today’s list is Will Dortmund Win?
Dortmund are playing away to M’Gladbach – The following facts appertain to this match.
1. Dortmund are only 1 point above M’Gladbach
2. Both Teams have played 17 matches.
3. When Dortmund play away against teams in a similar league position they have Lost 1 (Berlin) and drawn 1 (Frankfurt)
4. M’Gladbach when playing at home has beaten both B. Munchen and Leipzig who are 1st and 2nd in the league respectively.
5. M’Gladbach had a spell in the doldrums in December when both of their home matches resulted in a loss and a draw to teams lower in the League.
6. By winning M’Gladbach would jump 2 points and 1 place into 4th position above Dortmund
Judging by these stats my opinion would come down on the side of a home win or draw.

Boosted Bets

Boosted bets are bets offered by many bookmakers which are “boosted” from the normally offered odds up to perhaps as much as 3 points. Stakes for these bets are generally limited to £10 – £20. Matched Bettors such as I used to be find these bets very attractive as they are sometimes boosted to a level that makes laying them off an excellent qualifying bet for promotions that offer free bets for placing so many normal bets (bet 5 x £10 and recieve a free £10 bet on Monday)

Many bookmakers have got wise to this and are increasingly offering boosted bets that are impossible to lay off at the exchanges! These include, amongst others, Player “shots on target”. An example of this might be
“Leicester City v Manchester City – Jamie Vardy 2 or more shots on target Odds 2.8”
This will generally be accompanied with a short fact file such as “Vardy has had a total of 10 shots on target in the last 5 games” This will be perfectly true but what they don’t tell you is that perhaps in games 1-3 he had 3 shots on target in each match but in the last 2 games he only had 1 shot on target total. Sometimes these bets come in and that’s great, but more often than not you are pouring your money into a laughing bookies purse!!

I will be covering perhaps 4-5 of these bets each week from different bookies and doing a deep research job. I will then post my findings here in my blogs for you to make up your own mind as to put money on them. I will also give my own opinion, but that is exactly what it is, an opinion, and not advice. I wont get them all right but the aim is actually to BetOrNot.

I will also be keeping score to £10 stakes awarding myself points on the following basis
A bet which is avoided and loses +10
A bet which is avoided and wins -(odds x 10) eg Odds 3.0 (2/1) x 10 = -20
A bet which is placed and loses -10
A bet which is placed and wins +(odds x 10) eg Odds 3.0 (2/1) x 10 = +20