The OLBG Mares’ Hurdle is the 5th race on Cheltenham’s day 1 card. With 9 winners 6 of them with Quevega bouncing wins from 2009 to 2014 Willie Mullins is the undisputed king of this race.
2018 (9 Ran)
1 Apples Jade
2 Jers Girl
3 La Bague Au Roi
Winner : Benie Des Dieux 4/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2019 (14 Ran)
1 Benie Des Dieux
2 Elimay
3 Roksana
Winner : Roksana 10/1
Profit/Loss £8.00
2020 (9 Ran)
1 Benie Des Dieux
2 Honeysuckle
3 Stormy Ireland
Winner : Honeysuckle 9/4
Profit/Loss £0.25
Author Archives: shakey775
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 1 Race 4
The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy has been dominated by J.P. McManus owned horses trained in the main by Nicky Henderson with the exception of the Gavin Cromwell trained Espoir d’Allen in 2019.
2018 (11 Ran)
1 Buveur D’Air
2 Faugheen
3 My Tent Or Yours
Winner : Buveur D’Air 8/15f
Profit/Loss -£1.47
2019 (10 Ran)
1 Buveur D’Air
2 Apples Jade
3 Espoir D’Allen
Winner : Espoir D’Allen 16/1
Profit/Loss £14.00
2020 (17 Ran)
1 Cilaos Emery
2 Epatante
3 Darver Star
Winner : Epatante 2/1f
Profit/Loss Even
Note to self : Mullins had 2 runners both placed at 7/1 and 16/1
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 1 Race 3
The Ultima Handicap Chase is run over 3m 1f and 20 fences and attracts large fields
2018 (18 Ran)
1 Vintage Clouds
2 Coo Star Sivola
3 Gold Present
Winner : Coo Star Sivola 5/1f
Profit/Loss £3.00
2019 (24 Ran)
1 Singlefarmpayment
2 Coo Star Sivola
3 Give Me A Copper
Winner : Beware The Bear 10/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
2020 (23 Ran)
1 No Comment
2 Vinndication
3 Cepage
Winner : The Conditional 15/2
Profit/Loss -£3.00
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 1 Race 2
The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase has been won twice in the last 3 years by a Mullins trained horse but has Timeform agreed with the results
2018 (5 ran)
1 Footpad
2 Saint Calvados
3 Petite Mouchoir
Winner : Footpad 5/4f
Profit/Loss -£0.75
2019 (12 Ran)
1 Hardline
2 Duc Des Genievres
3 Glen Forsa
Winner Duc Des Genievres 5/1
Profit/Loss £3.00
2020 (11 Ran)
1 Notebook
2 Cash Back
3 Maire Banrigh
Winner : Put The Kettle On 16/1
Profit/Loss -£3.00
Doing ok until last year when 2 of the selections fell and the 3rd came Flat Last!
Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends
Timeform has a star rating system to which it grades each and every horse raced in Britain. These are a series of Blogs that chart the 3 year trends of the top 3 horses as rated by Timeform for the Cheltenham Festival. The aim of this is to determine whether or not a £1.00 level bet on each of the selections would produce a profit overall (There are 7 races each day therefore max loss each day would be £21.00)
First up is the SkyBet Supreme Novices Hurdle
2018 (19 ran)
1 Kalashnikov
2 Summerville Boy
3 Getabird
Winner : Summerville Boy S.P. 7/1
Profit/Loss £5.00
2019 (16 ran)
1 Klassical Dream
2 Mister Fisher
3 Fakir D’Oudairies
Winner : Klassical Dream S.P. 6/1
Profit/Loss £4.00
2020 (15 Ran)
1 Asterion Forlonge
2 Captain Guinness
3 Shishkin
Winner : Shishkin 6/1
Profit/Loss £4.00
This stategy has produced a clear profit each year
An added bonus to this strategy is that SkyBet will refund your first bet should it lose upto £10.00 maximising the profit or cutting the loss if none win.
Footy Accumulators PREMIUM BOOST FOR THE MNF ACTION
Just a little bit of research picks holes in this bet.
To begin with a simple look at the cards part shows that both of these players are no Norman Hunters 🥰
Everton’s Doucoure has had 23 premiership appearances this season and has only had a total of 6 yellow cards. His average fouls per game counts as less than 1 at 0.9 per 90 mins perhaps the guy is going for a sainthood. Southampton’s Bertrand fairs no better in the bad boy league with 5 yellows in 23 games he is perhaps slightly more wicked than Doucoure as his foul rate is an incredible 1.2 average per 90 mins. If this doesn’t convince you nothing will but I will delve into Everton’s Rodrigues ability to shoot straight!
Having only made 18 appearances (2 of these as a sub) he has managed an average of only 1.8 shots at goal per game and less than 1 shot on target (0.9) and over half of these get blocked (0.5).
Southamptons Danny Ings is probably the only part of this bet that will come to fruition with an average of 2.3 shots at goal per game 1.2 of these were on target
Personally I wouldn’t put 5p on this bet let alone £5.00
BettOrNot
£1.00 to £100.00 Third Time Lucky (Bet No. 3)
After a resounding 2nd minute goal by Bale I can move onto bet no 3 and have chosen a Bundesliga 2 game tonight between St Pauli and Hamburger SV.
St Pauli are currently sitting at 12th place out of 18 in the league and have an impressive 8 game form record of 19 points as opposed to Hamburger being 4th in the league and a less impressive form of just 13 points from 8 games
St Pauli’s last 4 home games have been 3 wins and 1 defeat and this against league leaders Bochum where there were a total of 4 goals in the 1st half with St Pauli scoring first in the 4th minute and a game of “Ping Pong” ensued. leaving a half time score line of 2-2. Bochum then administered the Coup de Gras in the 63rd minute.
To probe further back, the first home game of the season began well for 1st half goals with 2 being scored in this game followed by 2 more in the match v Nurnberg. Karlsruher made it 3 on the trot with a single scored in the 4th minute. A disappointing end to November saw Osnabruck score the only goal to win in the 85th minute. Christmas Month started well with a 10 minute score by Erzgebirge and the first goal scored by Dusseldorf in the same minute in the next game. This year there has been only 2 home games where there were no first half goals once v Holstein Kiel and the other against Sandhausen.
On to 4th Placed Hamburger and the 1st half goals statistic is at least 1 first half goal has been scored in 86% of Hamburg’s 2. Bundesliga games this season. That home and away. If I look at just the away games the 1st game of the season against Paderborn saw 5 (FIVE) first half goals. We then have to go to the 12th Dec to see no goals in the 1st half, this was against Darmstadt. Since then only the Dusseldorf game has seen no 1st half goals!
5 out of 6 games this year have seen Hamburger score or concede at least 1 goal in the first 20 minutes when playing away.
Footy Accumulators Acca of the Day
Footy Accumulators have posted their Acca of the Day and involves over 2.5 goals happening in 3 separate games
First on the list is Spurs v Burnley, a game I have already flagged as an early goal probability and warned of Tottenham’s tendency to concede makes this a probable outcome even though over 2.5 goals at Tottenham and when Burnley play away are both pegged at only 33%. This is a distinct void compared to Tottenhams home over 1.5 goals pecentage being over 80% (83%)
Second on the list is the Inter v Genoa match in this Serie A mismatch Inter could and probably will fulfill this leg on their own having an average goal scoring rate at home of 2.91 and an over 2.5 goals match percentage matching Tottenhams over 1.5 percentage! If you couple with this the the fact that Inter have only “Won to Nil” in 27% of their home games this leg would be as close to a banker as you could probably get.
Third and final leg of this acca is the Bundesliga bottom half tussle between Mainz and Augsburg. This might be the let down as Mainz at home concede or score 3 goals in only 36% of the time. Slightly more encouraging is the fact that Augsburg away achieve a 50% rate usually done in the second half.
If the Tottenham game was first to be played time wise the distinct possibility of the early goal would make this a layable prospect.
BettorNot 🙂
£1.00 to £100.00 Third Time Lucky (Bet No. 2)
With adrenaline pumping I have just put £1.42 on there being over 0.5 first half goals in the Tottenham v Burnley game this afternoon. Tottenham’s 11 first half goals count as 65% and 9 of these being scored in the first 30 minutes makes this an attractive proposition, coupled with this, Burnley have managed to keep a clean sheet up to half time only once in their last 5 premiership away games.
Ladbrokes Premier League Treble. Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs All to win
Ladbrokes have chosen the 3 big London clubs to create this interesting treble. Boosted from 9.0 (8/1) to 11.0 (10/1) seems a fair price as 10.0 is all you can get on the smarkets exchange.
First Game on the list is Leicester v (The Mighty) Arsenal, and at first sight Leicesters form from the last 4 home and away games is won 3 drawn 1 in contrast to Arsenal who have lost 3 and Won 1. It is all very tense at the top and leicester are level on points with Man Utd in their race to catch the seemingly unstoppable Man City. Arsenal’s last premiership away match was against Aston Villa 22 days ago and were beaten with a “surprise” 2nd minute goal. The Wolves game 4 days earlier was just a nightmare for them as 2 red cards and a penalty sealed this and very probably the villa game too with 2 suspensions and 4 out injured. Leicester have a great deal to gain from this match as Man Utd will need to beat an inform Chelsea. With Barnes only coming on late against Prague on Thursday may well see him fresh for this premiership clash.
Chelsea are are narrow favourites to win this game over Man Utd and should they do so and Leicester beat Arsenal it would pitch them 1 point above West Ham into 4th place. Chelsea are on form since losing manager Frank Lampard and Momentum may well carry them on to victory here. The very real battle for a mathematical top spot for Manchester cannot be discounted however and their goal scoring ability playing away from home speaks volumes and they will want to lift themselves from the doldrums that they are presently stranded in. The lack of a Stamford Bridge crowd could well be a deciding factor in this clash of premier titans.
Spurs host Burnley in this 2 o’clock kick off and reading from the match odds should be a walk in the park for them. But away goals can never be discounted at Tottenham home games and their form this season has seen them concede to all the teams below Burnley in the league except West Brom. All this being said however these two sides have met on ne fewer than 11 times since 2014 and Burnley have never won at the Tottenham ground.
If we take the Exchange odds of this treble as the most accurate it amounts to a 10% implied probability and with 9 possible outcomes of this treble, having the correct 3 fall into line considering who is playing seems a bit of a tall order. This may well be another treble that Ladbrokes win
Bettornot eh?
Betornot 