Researching bookies boosted bets. Are they really value or just a way of getting you to part with your money
A disappointing 6th place yesterday so I am £2.00 down.
Today I have
12:40 Meydan
Ardakan
Backed at 7/1 with Betfred
Placing twice in his last two outings and both time as favourite. this Marco Botti trained colt has in total started 6 times and placed in 4 of those races. This is his first time over 2 miles and just his 3 run for Botti after moving from Markus Klug’s Yard
Paying on 4 places in this Dubai Gold Cup
Placed 4th
profit 40p
Total loss over 2 days £1.60
A promotion offered by bookies that is becoming more common is the free bet if your horse comes 2nd or 3rd. This type of promotion started witha free bet if your horse finished 2nd to the favourite which encouraged punters to back non-favourite horses, can they stoop any lower? one asks. Evolving from this is the promotion free bet if 2nd or 3rd which if we really think about this the logical bet would be the favourite.
Today (24 March 2023) VirginBet are promoting two races the first is at Musselburgh at 13:50 a 2 1/2 mile handicap hurdle. Using stats from Adrian Masseys website the following can be assumed to be true as he is meticulous when he complies his stats.
From 2003 to 2022 there were 17720 handicap hurdle races run in Great Britain of these just 29% of favourites won and 57% placed. At Musselburgh 32% of favs won and 57% placed. If we drill it down to distance 30% of favourites won over 2m to 2m 1furlong and 58% placed. The official going today at Musselburgh is good to soft and just 28% of favourites won on this ground and 58% placed. The figures are similar for second race of the day prize money day of the week month of the year. In all about 85% of all favourites in a handicap hurdle will either win or more likely place so again the bookies have done their homework and there is about a 58% chance that the favourite will not win but place and a 14% chance that they wont be paying out anything.
In this case The favourite won and at 3/1 The SP 2nd and 3rd favourites Maimie’s Magic (5/1) and Poppy Rose (11/2) came 6th and UR respectively.
Second race that virgin are offering their free bet if 2nd or 3rd is the 16:20 at Hereford, another Handicap Hurdle being run over 2 1/2 miles as well as being on the same good to soft ground. Hereford has a slightly lower percentage of winning favourites than Musselburgh at 29% but still an 86% chance of the favourite winning or placing over all.
In the case of this race the favourite won again at S.P. odds of 15/8. Both the 2nd and 3rd Favourites pulled up 2 out.
Today the bookies lost and I won
Can I do better than the professional tipsters who advertise plenty and perhaps don’t always come up with the goods? Boasting huge profits of thousands of pounds these tipsters are no more than Value bettors who rely on the concept that if you back enough horses at odds better than the exchanges are offering then you will win in the long run – of course you will is stands to reason that if you back 5 horses each at odds of 6/1 or better then you will only need one winner to be “profitable” This is all well and good when you are staking £100 per point but who actually can afford to do this- certainly not me. This for them is a business they charge upwards of £30.00 per month for their “service” which they presumably use to place their £100 bets and if they are at all savvy will promptly lay them off at the exchange. Betting for the average punter should be a pleasurable pastime, something you can enjoy and afford. To this end I will post and bet £1.00 each way on a horse once a day – Max Loss £14.00 or 3 pints of beer or a bottle of gin on Tesco club card price 👌
Friday 24th March 2023
15:00 3:00 Musselburgh
Lock Down Luke
Runner up twice from his last two outings and beaten favourite last time out when he started at 7/2 he has won just twice over hurdles from a total of 14 starts. He may well do the deed today and even start favourite again but there is danger from Faithful flyer amongst others in this race. Prudent 1 pt E/W
Paying on 4 places with all the major bookmakers except stingy #BetVictor
OLBG (Online Bookmaker Guide) produce on a daily basis the accumulated tips from the best performing tipsters on the site and publish them as viable accumulator bets. This post will list and and publish the profits or losses of these bets over the Month
First up is the “Earlybird Multisport Acca” which is available from 7am onwards
Jan 1st 2023
| Result | Earlybird Multisport Acca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost | 14:00 | Tottenham Tottenham v Aston Villa | 👎 | 1.67 | |
| Won | 15:50 | Wrappedupinmay 3:50 Exeter | 👍 | 1.33 | |
| Lost | 18:00 | PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles | 👎 | 1.91 | |
| Won | 18:00 | DET Lions CHI Bears @ DET Lions | 👍 | 1.42 | |
| Lost | 08:15 | Sydney Sixers Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers | 👎 | 1.67 | |
| Won | 09:00 | Magda Linette to win 2 – 0 Magda Linette vs Zhibek Kulambayeva | 👍 | 1.20 | |
| Available: 07:00 daily | |||||
Advised at 07:00 at odds of 12.02
Next Acca of the day is the Racing Each Way Lucky 15 which is available from 10am each day
| Result | Each Way Lucky 15 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost | 14:16 | Recorwoman 2:16 Southwell | 👎 | 12.00 | |
| Lost | 15:00 | Maid Of Houxty 3:00 Catterick | 👎 | 7.00 | |
| Lost | 15:45 | Thunder 3:45 Fairyhouse | 👎 | 34.00 | |
| Lost | 17:26 | Brandy Station 5:26 Southwell | 👎 | 12.00 | |
| Available: 10:00 daily | |||||
Advised at 10:00 at odds of 37128.00
A cheeky little racing Double is the next acca to be published and is supposed to be available to view from 11 am but today (1st Jan 2023) it appeared at 10:30 and was as follows
| Result | Racing Double | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost | 13:20 | Thunder Rock 1:20 Cheltenham | 👎 | 2.75 | |
| Lost | 15:00 | Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick | 👎 | 2.50 | |
| Available: 11:00 daily | |||||
Advised at 10:30 at odds of 6.86
The racing four fold is usually available at 12:00 so it could be a bit frantic to get the bets on if the first race is close to midday. OLBG comensate for this by publishing the acca early so its best to have notifications set to on and have the app downloaded to your phone. More on this at the end of todays post.
| Result | Racing 4-Fold | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Won | 12:10 | Weveallbeencaught 12:10 Cheltenham | 👍 | 2.00 | |
| Lost | 12:55 | Annie Magic 12:55 Exeter | 👎 | 2.20 | |
| Lost | 13:20 | Thunder Rock 1:20 Cheltenham | 👎 | 2.75 | |
| Lost | 15:00 | Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick | 👎 | 2.50 | |
| Available: 12:00 daily | |||||
Advised at 11:00 at odds of 28.89
13:00 brings us the daily Multisport Acca which is similar to the EarlyBird Multi Sport Acca
| Result | Daily Multisport Acca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Won | 15:56 | Manaafith 3:56 Southwell | 1.50 | ||
| Lost | 18:00 | WAS Commanders CLE Browns @ WAS Commanders | 1.75 | ||
| Lost | 18:00 | PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles | 1.95 | ||
| Won | 14:00 | Monaco Monaco v Brest | 1.45 | ||
| Lost | 14:00 | Tottenham Tottenham v Aston Villa | 1.67 | ||
| Lost | 15:00 | Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick | 2.75 | ||
| Available: 13:00 daily | |||||
Advised at 13:00 at odds of 37.87
The popular Football four Fold is published at 13:30 at weekends and 17:00 on weekdays – here is todays
| Result | Football 4-Fold | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost | 16:00 | Lyon Lyon v Clermont Foot | 1.53 | ||
| Lost | 16:30 | Chelsea Nottm Forest v Chelsea | 1.60 | ||
| Won | 15:00 | Plymouth Plymouth v Milton Keynes Dons | 1.70 | ||
| Won | 15:00 | Millwall Millwall v Rotherham | 1.50 | ||
| Available: 17:00 weekdays | 13:30 weekend | |||||
Advised at 13:30 at odds of 6.20
| Result | US Sports Acca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost | 21:05 | SF 49ers -9.50 SF 49ers @ LV Raiders | 1.91 | ||
| Lost | 18:00 | WAS Commanders CLE Browns @ WAS Commanders | 1.80 | ||
| Lost | 18:00 | PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles | 1.95 | ||
| Won | 18:00 | MIA Dolphins +2.50 MIA Dolphins @ NE Patriots | 2.05 | ||
| Won | 18:00 | DET Lions CHI Bears @ DET Lions | 1.44 | ||
| Won | 18:00 | NY Giants IND Colts @ NY Giants | 1.44 | ||
| Available: 16:30 daily | |||||
Advised at 16:30 at odds of 28.50
| Result | Evening Multisport Acca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost | 21:05 | SF 49ers -9.50 SF 49ers @ LV Raiders | 1.91 | ||
| Won | 21:25 | GB Packers MIN Vikings @ GB Packers | 1.60 | ||
| Lost | 01:10 | MIL Bucks WAS Wizards @ MIL Bucks | 1.55 | ||
| Won | 01:10 | MEM Grizzlies SAC Kings @ MEM Grizzlies | 1.59 | ||
| Lost | 19:45 | Draw or PSG Lens v PSG | 1.33 | ||
| Lost | 19:45 | Gerwyn Price Gerwyn Price vs Gabriel Clemens | 1.80 | ||
| Available: 18:00 daily | |||||
Advised at 18:00 at odds of 15.67
The outcome for the first day of the study is not a good one! None of the straight Accas came anywhere near and the lucky 15 did not even have a place
If we set our stake at £1.00 for accas and 10p e/w lucky 15 then we would be £10 down so far
11:00 Ana Bogdan vs Mayar Sherif
Ana Bogdan
Win Match
50 WIN
1.44
A Quarterfinal win in straight sets against 3rd seed Irena Begu suggests confidence on Ana Bogdan to win this semi in a similar way.
Ana Bogdan to win 2 – 1
Set Betting
50 WIN
With Ana Bogdan winning the quarters in straight sets against Begu the assumption might be that she can acomplish the same result here but Sherifs’ win in the first round in straight sets against 5th seed Bodar cannot be discounted.
Over 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
Both of these players have had straight set wins in this tournament but a couple have gone to tie breaks and with service breaks more common in Ladies tennis and that this match could well go to 3 sets an over bet might seem prudent.
THIS BET WON
Out of the blue I was given a £1.00 free bet by Virginbet and I have bet the whole thing on Dandenong City vs Dandenong Thunder in Australia being over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62. If the bet comes in then I will have 62p cash.
I just picked my seven winners for @itv7. Don’t miss your free chance to win the jackpot #ITV7 https://itv7.itv.com/play. 18+ T&Cs apply.
I just picked my seven winners for @itv7. Don’t miss your free chance to win the jackpot #ITV7 https://itv7.itv.com/play. 18+ T&Cs apply.
Tonights premiership clash is between London Clubs Crystal Palace and Arsenal.
As you can see from the screenshot of my Premiership workbook above this game scores highly at 59/110 with Arsenal making up 42 of those points. Arsenals first half over 0.5 goals percentage is 92% with their average opening Goal scored before the 20 mins. They have also managed to score the opening goal in 9 of their 13 away games with all of them coming in the first half. Slightly concerning is Crystal Palace and their 67% of games where they managed to keep a clean sheet in the first half. Even with the caveat of Crystal Palaces’ clean sheet record I would still be confident that there will be at least one goal in the first half and at odds of 2.8 might be temped to back Arsenal to win the half.
If you are interested in this workbook and others I have produced for other leagues please visit this post linked below where they can all be downloaded for free
Please take care to update the workbooks before each game. full instructions are on this post also.
https://bet-or-not.com/2022/03/28/backing-over-0-5-goals-in-the-first-half/
Betornot 