Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Four selections today and going into the 5th day with a profit of £3.78 First selection to run today is
4:27 Nottingham : Phoenix Passion Advised Odds 5/2 (3.5) Odds available at 10:00 : 13/8 (2.63) Stake £3.07 Result –
Second to run is
5:35 Kempton : Remaat Advised Odds 11/1 (12.0) Odds available at 10:00 : 3/1 (4.0) Stake £1.67 Result –
Odds of 3/1 taken as SkyBet are offering Best Odds Guaranteed
The third Selection was City House in 7:15 at Kempton but has been withdrawn and is a non-runner.
Fourth and Final Selection today is 7:45 Kempton : Miss Kubelik Advised Odds 9/2 (5.5) Odds available at 10.00 10/3 (4.33) Stake £1.50 Result –
Good Luck all – need it – these bets take me into a Loss state 😂
Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)
Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors 3 selections at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)
First to run was Gutsy Girl which was advised at odds of 4/1 (5.0) I backed it at 11:45 at S.P but the odds available then was 5/2 (3.5) Unfortunately it could only manage 3rd place.
Gutsy Girl (3rd)
Profit is Plummeting and the next to run was Valkyrian in the 8:45 at Windsor Advised at Publication at 16/1 (17.0) Stake was 67p at S.P. as available odds had halved to 15/2 (8.5) S.P. Odds recovered to 12/1 (13.0) which would have been nice if it had won instead of coming 7th
Valkyrian (7th)
With another 67p knocked off the profit the last runner on Hughs list was Coin Power. Advised at odds of 10/1 (11.0) by the time I got my 91p on at 11:45 the odds had dropped to 11/2 (6.5) By Post time the S.P. was 7/1 so again disappointing not to have surpassed advised odds but had it of won instead of coming 8th then I would have a profit of £6.37 instead of my target fiver.
Coin Power (8th)
Numerous people have now pointed out to me that S.P. is a poor bet and I agree but in all of the runners so far this month all have been above the odds available at the time the bet was struck so that with any other bookie than SkyBet Best Odds Guaranteed would have been applicable and instead of backing at S.P. I would have taken the offered odds for my Guaranteed fiver if it won. The sole purpose of this study if you like is to try and make people see that, yes the bookies decimate the odds to capitalize on the faithful which to my mind is despicable, but the odds can and do recover sometimes to a mark greater than the advised price at publication time. Its a good job Hugh had a couple of winners Saturday because my Profit is now down to £5.03
Today I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)
Todays Selection was Cargin Bhui which ran at Hamilton this evening. Advised odds were 11/4 but just 1 hour later those odds had been cut to 2/1 Working to a profit of £5.00 per winner I staked £2.50 to Win at S.P. in the hope that the odds drifted towards post time A very close 2nd place has reduced my June Profit to £8.61
S.P. as you can see was 3/1 Another selection where S.P. was greater than the advised odds 👍
Yesterday I backed all four of Hugh Taylors ATR racing tips but instead of clamoring to get my money on before the odds disappeared I simply backed them at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)
First in the List was Sea of Thieves in the 2:00 at Epsom Downs at an advised price at publication of 14/1. This was published at 9:11 and by 10:30 the odds were 9/1. I backed this at S.P. for 56p which would have given me £5.00 profit if the odds stayed at 9/1 or a bonus amount if the odds drifted and by some miracle the horse won.
As you can see from the settled bet that the price did drift, not to the advised price but close and if it had won would have given a profit of £6.72 instead of the £5.00 at the 9/1 price.
Second to run was Billy Webster in the 3:10 again at Epsom. Published at 9:24 at advised odds of 10/1. I again backed this at S.P. for a stake of 83p as the odds available at 10:30 were down to 6/1
The calculation for these bets is simple Target profit / Decimal odds -1 £5.00 / (7.00 – 1)
By Post Time the odds had drifted to 14/1 which would have given a profit of £11.62 if it had won.
Taylors next selection to run was also at Epsom and he tipped Relentless Voyager in the 5:15 at an advised price of 13/2 (7.5) at the publication time of 9:03. By 10:30 these odds had sunk to 4/1 or 5.0 in decimal. Backed at S.P. for a stake of £1.00 to reap a £5.00 profit if the odds didn’t sink further.
As you can see the odds drifted out to 7/1 (8.0) at post time and the horse won giving a profit of £7.00 instead of the £5.00 target figure.
Taylors fourth and final runner was at Doncaster in the 6:15 and was published on the ATR website at 09:39. Wild Waves price was advised at 9/2 (5.50) at this time and an hour later was a mere 5/2 (3.50) on Sky Bet. Backed at S.P. for a £2.00 stake my target profit if the odds didn’t dip below this price and if the horse won would again be £5.00
As you can see from my settled bet slip This horse also won at 11/4 (3.75) and while the odds didn’t reach those of the advised price by a long chalk they did drift slightly from the 3.50 giving me a profit of £5.50
My Total profit from these four bets ended up at £11.11 from a total of £4.39 staked! Better than being poked in the eye with a sharp stick I think.
I know that if I had used another bookmaker that offered BOG then I would have had guaranteed odds and could have taken the price offered without fear of the odds dipping some more. As it is if I had taken the prices offered by SkyBet at the time of striking the bets then my profit would have been £8.61 – £2.50 less than my actual profit. If you had used the same staking method AND had been able to get the ADVISED prices then the profit would have been as follows
Sea of Thieves Advised odds 15.00 Stake 36p Lost P/L -36p Billy Webster Advised odds 11.00 Stake 50p Lost P/L -50p Relentless Voyager Advised odds 7.5 Stake 77p Won P/L £5.01 Wild Waves Advised odds 5.5 stake £1.11 Won P/L 4.99
For a while now I have been pondering the possibility of backing the favourite at the dogs to see if there is any money to be made. Even though the rumours that greyhound racing is not the most virtuous sport you can make a wager on it is certainly the most abundant sport with over 140 races each day and that is just the UK. According to the Oxford Stadium website 35% of all favourites win! This however is across all tracks, distances and, classes of race. To this end I decided that the only true way of sorting the wheat from the chaff is to back every single favourite in every single race and use the power of excel to weed out losing statistics from the more profitable. So without ado I will post day by day findings on this blog
My criteria is simple I will back each race favourite 20 seconds before the post time to a liability of just £1.00 so in effect my average stake should be kept to about 30p per race. This means that should the favourite win then the Profit will be £1.00 and if loses the stake determined by the odds that are available at that moment in time on the betfair exchange. There have been instances where the odds of two of the dogs have been exactly the same at the 20 second point and no bet was struck. This is unfortunate but one of those things. After testing that the software worked as required on March 1st testing began in earnest on March 2nd and showed an overall profit of £13.41 with profits showing from all meetings except Crayford and Hove.
Click to Enlarge
Starting with Central Park, there were a total of 6 winning favourites giving a small profit of £2.66 The rest I will put into a table for easy reference.
Track
Winning Favs
Avg Stake
P/L
Crayford
1
45p
-£3.85
Doncaster
9 (2 Meetings)
69p
£4.73
Hove
6
£1.43 **
-£0.51
Monmore
10 (2 Meetings)
57p
£2.44
Newcastle
6
48p
£1.69
Oxford
8 (2 Meetings
63p
£1.26
Perry Barr
8
47p
£1.48
Romford
10 (2 Meetings)
53p
£3.03
Swindon
4
49p
£0.48
** Quite a few Odds On Favs Lost!!!
Crayford was quite obviously not a track to back the favourite on this day as just one favourite won, Hove had a few odds on favourites running hence the average stake of £1.43 with the shortest priced favourite of the day losing costing a massive £3.12 All in all not a bad day for the first day. There were a total of 160 races of which 64 favourites won giving a 40% win rate.
Lets go on to look at the best performing meeting of the day which was Doncaster. Producing an overall profit of £4.73 with 9 winning favourites at the 2 meetings. Of the 8 winning favourites 4 were in OR class races or Open Class and scored a 100% strike rate as did the OR3 class which accounted for 2 more winning favs. The sheer volume of information I have collected just over the last 20 days is by no means enough and in subsequent posts I will delve a little deeper into which tracks are more profitable than others using this system and which Races should be avoided on all counts after looking at the stats.
Just as a Taster the best performing track using this system between 2 March and 22 march is Nottingham with a profit of £15.89 The worst Track for winning Favourites is Sunderland with a loss of £22.03
My total profit for this period backing every race is £38.28
The Racing Post, a respected and some would say a vital part of British and Irish racing. The content of the paper and on line version of the only real guide to days racing is second to none but should we do our own research or just back the runners that are in BOLD in the race preview that can be found on many betting sites. I think that the Racing Post has a reputation to uphold so why would bookmakers willingly put the racing post preview at the head of the race page. Sceptical attitudes may say that if the bookies are willingly publishing these views by “Verdict” from the racing post then statistically they (the bookies) will win over all. Todays meetings come from Bellowstown, Kempton, Doncaster, Uttoxeter, Stratford, and Chelmsford City.
Looking for Level Stakes profit to £1.00 stake for all races Lets see how they get on.
First meeting in order of timing today is Bellewstown 13:20 Fast Tara (Abandoned) 13:55 Master Garvey (Abandoned) 14:30 Ten to Ten (Abandoned) 15:05 Escapingthejungle (Abandoned) 15:40 Tawaazon (Nap) (Abandoned) 16:15 Theonewedreamof (Abandoned) 16:50 Star Kissed (Abandoned)
Kempton Meeting starts at 13:30 13:30 Burgar LOST 14:05 Phantom Flight LOST 14:40 Brains LOST 15:15 Aztec Empire (Nap) LOST 15:50 Fix You 16:25 Cuban Breeze 17:00 Simply Sondheim
Doncaster next and the first race goes off at 13:50 13:50 Valadero LOST 14:25 Dirtyoldtown LOST 15:00 Asjad LOST 15:35 Awaal (Nap) 16:10 Poker Face 16:45 Ribal 17:20 Aldbourne 17:50 Aone Ally
Uttoxeter 14:10 Tonto Foley LOST 14:45 Sporting Ace LOST 15:20 Corey’s Courage LOST 15:55 Blackjack Magic 16:30 Gold Emery 17:05 Had to be Hugo (Nap) 17:35 Mistral Milly
The final meeting of the afternoon is from Stratford 14:17 Beau Balko LOST 14:52 The Grey Falco (Nap) LOST 15:27 Weebil LOST 16:02 Lamanver Bel Ami 16:37 Go Steady 17:12 Banteer
The sole evening meeting is from Chelmsford City and first race goes off at 17:30. 17:30 Vitralite 18:00 Boasty 18:30 Prenup (Nap) 19:00 Iconic Moment 19:30 Beyond Equal 20:00 Pending Appeal 20:30 Heath Rise
I have annotated the Nap selections for each meetings but will list them again here Bellowstown 15:40 Tawaazon (Nap) Kempton 15:15 Aztec Empire (Nap) Doncaster 15:35 Awaal (Nap) Uttoxeter 17:05 Had to be Hugo (Nap) Stratford 14:52 The Grey Falco (Nap) Chelmsford 18:30 Prenup (Nap)
Betornot 