trading in-play – Page 2

Trading Tennis No.2 Break of serve near the end of set

Yesterday I looked at trading a tennis match on just the first game of the first set in a tennis match. Today I will look at the risk to reward of a trade where, when the conditions are right, we can lay the favourite if he/she is serving for the 9th game and the scores are 4 games each in the first set. As I explained in the first post in this series we get the biggest movement of odds when a break of serve occurs in a set or match. If we look at a more critical stage of a match such as the later stages of the first set where the scores are level after the 8th game then if the favourite is serving the 9th game and his/her opponent can break the serve then they would be serving to win the set in the next game. I will use Bet Angels Tennis Trader feature to demonstrate this a little more clearly than just quoting numbers. In the screenshot below I have manually set the score to 4-4 in the first set of the first round match of the French Open between Nadia Podoroska and Jessika Ponchet. Podoroska is the favourite to win this match and will probably start the match at odds of somewhere around 1.75. If the first set reaches 4 games all then Tennis Trader project her odds to be around 1.78 (the figure ringed in the set matrix)

If Podoroska wins this service game then her odds would move in to 1.66, a movement of 12 ticks. If however Ponchet can break the serve at this critical stage of the set then she would then be serving for the set in game 10 and Podoroskas odds would move significantly the other way to somewhere around 2.88. This is a movement of around 65 ticks. We can now determine a trading strategy based on these two outcomes of the 9th game and place a trade accordingly knowing our potential loss or profit. Because the biggest movement in these two scenarios are upwards in terms of ticks then we would be looking to LAY Podoroska just before the start of the game. As we are putting our trade into the market during in-play we have to take account of the fact that betfair imposes a 3 second delay from when we place the lay bet to when it actually enters the market. While this shouldnt be a problem with high volume markets it could be a problem with markets that have low liquidity so this is one of the factors we should address when we are framing the trade – if there is low liquidity we may not getour lay bet matched. This aside we can work out our risk to reward in the following way.
If we LAY Podoroska at odds of 1.78 for a stake of £10 then our Liability would be £7.80
If Podoroska goes on to win the game then we would have to trade out of the match by backing her at odds of 1.66 for a stake of 10.72 so our loss on this trade if podoroska wins the game would be in the region of 72p
If Ponchet breaks Podoroska’s serve then with the same lay bet in place we would, at the end of the game , be able to place a back bet on Podoroska at odds of 2.88 for a stake of £6.18 giving us a profit of around £3.74 so our risk to reward would be 72p loss or £3.74 profit.
These figures might be a bit bewildering and you might wonder how I came by them. The answer is simple I used a lay bet calculator freely available across the internet in particular I used the free hedging calculator on https://www.goalprofits.com/hedging-calculator/

I looked at 188 matches last week and set betangel to automatically trade a match where this scenario met the conditions above ie
The favourite must be serving for the 9th game
The game scores must be 4-4
I also added another condition that the odds of the favourite at the start of the 9th game must be between 1.5 and 1.9
Of the 188 matches only 5 met the criteria and 2 of these trades saw the favorite’s serve broken.
If you want to learn more about automating trades such as these using bet angel you can download a trial copy by clicking this link

Trading Tennis No 1 The break of service. Analysis of Match highlighted

Yesterday saw the first post of a new series of posts highlighting the risk to reward options of various tennis trades. In this post I outlined 4 possible trades that were available to us on the very first game of the fist set. To visit this post click on this link.

The image below is a screenshot of the flashscore site showing the result of the first game and how it was won.

As you can see Bronzetti won this game breaking Grabhers service after 2 break points. The image below is the set matrix shown in yesterdays post and I have ringed the end of set odds.

There is another feature of Bet Angel that can help us analyse our trades and this is an ability to log each players odds at whatever intervals you wish throughout the match. This enables you to see the way the odds moved as each point is won or lost. I have provided a screenshot of the 1st 6 1/2 minutes of the 1st game below.

The time elemnts of this spreadsheet are actual time ie 12:24:11 pm and if you follow the odds for Bronzetti which in this case are logged every 30 seconds you can see that her odds in the first game after 6 minutes play (12:30:14) they bottomed out at 1.39. In the next screen shot I have added the scores and you can see that when Bronzetti won a point her odds dropped and when Grabher served her 2 points that she won the odds rose slightly

Yesterday I outlined 4 different trades that we could have done on this first game in the match and Trade 2 had the best risk to reward option for us. The odds for Bronzetti to win the match at the time of writing yesterdays post was 1.74 however this was at 7 am – 5 hours before the start of the match. When the match finally started at 12:24 pm her odds had dropped to 1.69. Tennis Trader predicted that if Bronzetti won the game then her odds would be around 1.44 they actually reached 1.39.

If you missed yesterdays post click this link to have a look

In this case our best trade option won out and we profited by it Please subscribe to my blog if this has peaked an interest in trading tennis as I will be sharing lots more opportunities for making educated decisions on trading tennis matches and its more exciting than laying the draw in a football match.

If you are interested in trying Bet Angel you can download a free trial by clicking here to take you to the Bet Angel website I reccommend it and it wont cost you a penny.

Trading Tennis Matches

Trading tennis might be quite daunting at first but when you actually look at some key points in tennis matches this can be a great introduction into the bewildering world of sports trading. There are so many opportunities to make (and lose) money in this activity, that many “match bettors” that have made the progression from having their betting accounts “gubbed” to gravitating to the only real option left open to them in their betfair account.
With there being so many markets available every day and so much “advice” being forced on naive beginners, many lose money and therefore lose interest.
In this series of blog posts I will aim to point out some of the more obscure trading opportunities I have discovered which are of less risk and more reward. Sports trading is a risk, and while you are never putting your full stake at risk there is always the greater probability that the trade will go against you and you will have to trade out of the market for a loss. This can be for a variety of reasons, lack of knowledge and lack of research being just 2. Many beginners to trading will perhaps watch a couple of YouTube videos where the presenter makes trading look so easy and lucrative that they just jump into a similar market that was shown and try and do exactly the same with catastrophic consequences.
As a potential trader you must have, at the very least a working knowledge of how various markets behave. Tennis, to my mind, could be the sport where this can be learned quite easily and with a relatively low risk to your stake.

Trading Tennis No 1 Break of Serve

Trading Tennis No 1 The break of service

Tennis markets are primarily driven by what is actually going on in the match itself. Unlike football markets which flow in a determined direction and only react after a goal is scored, tennis markets can fluctuate wildly to the uneducated eye but there are certain points within tennis matches that can present us with a good “low risk high reward” opportunities. One of these points is the break of serve. There are always breaks of serve in tennis matches – that is how they are won or lost but finding the right point to make a trade needn’t be rocket science.
At this point I must make it clear that I have a distinct advantage as I have a subscription to a piece of software called Bet Angel and this particular, and at the present time subsequent posts on this subject, come from watching and understanding videos made by the founder of the software, Peter Webb.
Knowing at what point to try and trade a break of serve and how to gain the maximum profit or lose the minimum loss can be determined by oberving countless tennis matches and noting the odds of each player at each point of the game and building your own giant database which might be ready to use in perhaps 10 years or you could use a feature of bet angel called Tennis Trader.
The figures I have used below are from Tennis Trader and are from the WTA Rabat2023 Final being played today at 12:00 between Julia Grabher and Lucia Bronzetti, and at the time of writing this blog the Match odds are Bronzetti 1.74 and Grabher 2.35 giving a near perfect “book” of 100.5%. This fact is however irrelevant as we are just interested in who is the favourite and the possibilities of what could happen in the course of the first set. Using Tennis Trader I am going to investigate various scenarios where a break of serve happens and what effect it would have on the market and the risk to reward. Below you will see a screenshot of the Tennis Trader Set Matrix for the first set which when calibrated to the match gives a fair representation of how the market would behave.

If we assume that Grabher is serving first and she wins her first game then the odds for her to win the match would move from 2.35 to 2.21 giving just a 6 tick move but if Bronzetti breaks her serve in the first game then her odds would move out to 3.29 this is a move of 39 ticks. The odds for Bronzetti in the same instances would be as follows
Bronzettis odds if Grabher holds serve 1.74 to 1.83 – 9 ticks
Bronzettis odds if Grabher loses her serve 1.74 to 1.44 -30 ticks

In money terms as a trade using £10 stakes for both back and lay bets and “Greening” or hedging the trade at the end of the game (remember tennis is split into games sets and matches dont get confused when i say end of game – it means the end of the present game – not the entire match) the following scenarios would produce the following profit and losses.

TRADE OPTION 1
We BACKED Grabher at odds of 2.35 – Liability £10 potential Profit £13.50 less 2% commission.
Grabher Won the game: We hedged our stake at odds of 2.21 with a lay bet of £10.61 – after commission we gained 40p
Grabher Lost the game: We Traded out our stake at odds of 3.29 with a lay stake of £7.10 – We lost £3.02.
The risk to reward on this trade would be lose £3.02 or win 40p

TRADE OPTION 2
We BACKED Bronzetti at odds of 1.74 – Liability £10 Potential profit £7.40 less 2% commission.
Grabher Won the game: We hedged our stake at odds of 1.83 with a lay bet of £9.53 – after commission we lost 65p
Grabher Lost the game: We Traded out our stake at odds of 1.44 with a lay stake of £12.15 – We Won £1.91
The risk to reward on this trade would be lose 65p or win £1.91
As you can see the most we would have lost would have been £3.02 roughly a third of our stake in the first scenario or 65p in the second scenario.
The most we would have won is £1.91 in the second scenario as opposed to 40p in the first scenario.
Peter Webb refers this to “Framing a Trade” which is to say you can determine your potential for losses and gains and so determine the better strategy.

If we now look at the same game but we LAY our players at the onset of the game.
TRADE OPTION 3
We LAY Grabher at odds of 2.35 for a stake of £10 making our liability £13.50
Grabher Won the game: We hedged our stake at odds of 2.21 with a BACK bet of £10.63 – We LOST 63p
Grabher Lost the game: We Traded out our stake at odds of 3.29 with a lay stake of £7.14 – After commission We Won £2.80.
The risk to reward on this trade would be lose 63p or win £2.80
TRADE OPTION 4
We LAY Bronzetti at odds of 1.74 for a stake of £10 making our liability £7.40
Grabher Won the game: We hedged our stake at odds of 1.83 with a BACK bet of £9.43 – We WON 53p after Commission
Grabher Lost the game: We Traded out our stake at odds of 1.44 with a BACK stake of £12.08 – We LOST £2.08.
The risk to reward on this trade would be lose £2.08 or win 53p

The scenarios above each have their merits and pitfalls and this is the essence of framing a trade so that you have the potential for a maximum gain against a minimal loss.
With this particular trade strategy where the players are priced similarly to this and the Favourite is not serving first then we could lose 3 out of 4 of these trades and still bet at a break even point in our money. getting a 50% strike rate would see us building our bank nicely to increase our stakes steadily as our bank grows.
The screenshot below depicts the scenario of Bronzetti serving first in the first set and if you compare the differences you will see that the odds predicted by Tennis Trader are slightly different from that of Grabner serving first. This highlights the need to do some basic research before we jump into trades and knowing our entry and exit points

There are other basic factors which should be taken into consideration such as the playing surface – On grass courts the speed of the ball at serve is quicker and the bounce lower making return of serve just that little bit harder than on clay courts which are slower and the bounce higher giving a better chance of return serve
Gender also can play a big part in the way you frame your trades. Ladies tennis matches tend to see a greater number of breaks of serve than in mens matches.

The match highlighted today was picked at random and if you read this post before the match starts try watching the first game just to see which scenario played out and which scenario you would have traded.
As with all trading and betting systems the risk is always present and you should fully understand how any market works before jumping in with both feet. Having said that however this is a trading opportunity which has a relatively low risk attached to it and as such could be pursued after doing some sample trades on paper. Tennis Trader can be an invaluable tool in this but these trades are entirely possible with just a little caution and research.

Next post will look at doing the same sort of trade but further into the set when there can be more movement in the markets which we can benefit from while keeping our risk to a minimum.
If you want to keep abreast of this trading series and how well the trades go please subscribe to my blog to receive these posts as I produce them.

If you are more interested and want to try betangel software please click this link below where you can download a trial copy of the full package. The software has a practice mode where by you can place trades into the markets without any risk to your betfair bank.

Download a free trial of bet Angel here

Links to other posts in this series

Tennis Trading No.2 Break of Serve near end of Set
Tennis Trading No.3 Dutching A Tennis Match

Understanding the movement of in-play odds in the Over/Under goals Markets

Understanding the initial direction of the Over or Under goals markets on a betting exchange when the game goes in-play and the different speeds that the market moves is key to judging your risk when trading. Grasping this and understanding what happens when a goal is scored is half the battle to making profit in these markets.
As a game goes in-play the probability of a goal being scored begins to diminish when you are trading the Over goals market which means that the odds will increase as the minutes tick away. Depending on which Over market you are attempting to trade, when a goal does go in, the odds will take a very steep drop to a level where the probability of the market being fulfilled will reflect in the odds depending on what time the goal was scored. For instance If you had laid the Over 2.5 goals and the first goal went in after 5 minutes then there are 85 more minutes of the game left for the remaining 2 goals to be scored and the probability of this happening will reflect as very high and the odds will plummet to a point which would put you into a loss position in the market. If, however, the first goal wasnt scored until the 85th minute then the probability of 2 more goals being scored in the final 5 minutes is very low and the movement in the odds would be slight, if at all.
To demonstrate this visually I am going to use a smart bit of software called BetAngel and a feature in the program called “Soccer Mystic”. This will “predict” the odds during a predetermined game if or when goals are scored. There is a game tonight in the English Championship between Barnsley and Swansea City and for no other reason that it is first alphabetically will serve my purpose admirably.
At the time of posting this the predicted lay odds on the Over 2.5 goals market is 1.91. While this is just a predicted odds level at kick-off the market can be different depending on factors such as team sheet announcements, but for the purposes of this it will suit. If we say that we have a lay bet of £5.00 at odds of 1.91 this would give us a liability (total ammount we can lose) of £4.55 at kick-off. We can use “Soccer Mystic” to see our profit/loss should a goal be scored in the fifth minute. The screen shot below shows the predicted odds if no goal is scored in minute 5 and the predicted odds if there was a fifth minute goal

Barnsley v Swansea predicted odds after 5 minutes

As you can see we can determine our risk if there was a goal in the 5th minute and this would be a loss of £2.08 if we traded out. In the next screen shot Soccer Mystic also gives a visual representation of how the market “recovers” as the match progresses and can give us an indication as to when we could trade out for no loss if while watching the match we ascertain that the first goal was a fluke i.e. own goal or a lucky fumble in the box and decide to let the bet run to our predetermined exit point.

The predicted odds are shown by the red line in the graph and as you can see after the first goal going in at the 5th minute the odds plunged to 1.34 but then as the game progresses and no other goal is scored the market recovers slowly to rise after about 35 minutes in-play time to a break even point where we can exit the trade for a no loss/profit. In the graph the horizontal blue line is the “profit” line and when we are laying the market when the red line is above the blue a profitable trade is possible.
As with all things betting or trading research is the key and you may have noticed that I mentioned a predetermined exit point. After doing some really basic research on this game tonight I came to a decision, provisionally, that the first goal probably, using previous games as a guide that perhaps, barring fluke goals, the first goal might be some time after the 17th minute. Using this as our control point we can set out exit point at 15 minutes win or lose

In the screen shot above I have pointed the cursor at 15 minutes and in the ringed box shows us that the predicted odds after 15 minutes when the first goal was scored after 5 mins would be about 1.49. This would leave us in a losing position but if we were right and the next goal went in at minute 17 then our loss would be greater. If of course no goal was scored and we trade out at 15 minutes Soccer Mystic can show us our predicted profit as shown below.

I am sure you are thinking “what if I want to back over 2.5 goals ” then the opposite applies and if you had backed this market at the odds shown and a quick goal was scored then the odds would move dramatically in your favour to enable you to trade out at a profit. as shown below.

Barnsley v Swansea back bet 5 minute goal

We would exit this trade at this point for a £1.93 profit and this would be great but again when we go into this trade we need to pick an exit point and having done the same research we think that the first goal will be at about 17 minutes how far past this point do we go if no goals are scored. If we pick our exit point at say 25 minutes and no goals are scored Soccer Mystic can show us what sort of loss we would expect to take as demonstrated below

Barnsley v Swansea 25 minute goal on a back bet

As you can see an overall loss of £1.95 would be our exit loss.
To summarise if we are laying an “Over” market the odds rise steadily in our favour and continue to provide the potential profit but as soon as a goal is scored our profit potential vanishes to be replaced with the very great risk of a losing trade, on the flip side, if we back the “over” market then our position is of a losing trade until a goal goes in and the earlier the better.

Just for fun there are 7 championship matches tonight and the average time for a first goal this season in the championship league is 32 minutes the following 7 screen shots show what you could expect to win if you laid the Over 2.5 goals market and each game remained goalless until this point.

These 7 screenshots predict the odds and probable trade out profit if there were no goals in their respective games

Laying The Draw and Trading Out after the First Goal – Research

The first Premiership game today is the mid-table clash between Leicester City and Arsenal. The Odds for Leicester are 2.5, Arsenal 3.0 and to Lay the draw the lay odds are 3.75. There has been at least one goal scored in the past 9 games where these two sides have met with just one 1-1 draw in July 2020. This season neither team have scored in the first 15 minutes of the game with Leicester preferring to wait until after the 30th minute to get on the score card. Arsenal, away, have only scored once this season and have conceded at least one goal in each 15 minute time segment. Leicester have scored in all but one of their home games this season only losing to nil against Manchester City. They have also scored 2 or more goals in the last 4 of their matches (Home and Away). Arsenals Away record is dismal but leicster have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 8 matches giving hope that at least 1 goal will be scored. The odds for over 0.5 goals is 1.06 suggesting strongly that the market expects.

After opening “Soccer Mystic” in the Betangel software and putting 30 minutes into the time of first goal we can see that a profit would be gained if either team scored.

Alphabetically Burnley v Brentford is the first 3pm fixture and the odds are similar to the Leicester v Arsenal game earlier in the day. Burnley are slight favourites at 2.76 and Brentford a few ticks higher at odds of 2.96. To lay the draw odds of 3.35 are on offer. Burnley have conceded in all of their home games this season apart from the 0-0 draw against Norwich City. Brentford also have a 0-0 score line against Crystal Palace but have scored in all of their other 3 away games. Both teams have scored in the first 15 minutes but Brentford have the edge with 4 of their seasons goals coming in the first half. With no previous meetings of these two teams there are no head to head stats.

Again after loading the relevant information into Soccer Mystic we see that there would be a slightly better return if the form of Brentford ran true and scored in the 16th minute. A few quid lower liability also makes this an attractive trade.

Liverpool v Brighton is next under the spotlight and with Liverpool knocking at Chelsea’s door in top spot are clear favourites to win this with odds of 1.27. Brighton however, in the same fixture last season , beat Liverpool 0-1! Liverpool have scored first in 3 out of 4 of their last home games whereas Brighton have just one opening goals from the same number of away games (4) Using soccerstats opening goals table we can see that Liverpool’s average time of scoring first is 40 minutes at home and when they did concede first it was in the 22nd minute. Brighton’s only opening goal when away was in the 90th minute and their average conceding time was 24 minutes.

After putting an average time of 40 minutes into Soccer Mystic a first goal by Brighton at this point would have the same result as Lille last night against PSG but the difference here is that after looking back at Lille’s Stats they scored first on no fewer than 4 times out of 7 matches. Confident of a Liverpool opening goal this trade looks good on reflection the level of profit just depends on the timing of the goal.

Another outrageously short “odded” Manchester City host Crystal Palace this afternoon in the 3rd 3pm kick-off and going straight to the first goal time table and see that Manchester have scored 3 opening goals at home this season at an average time of 9 minutes and have not conceded a first goal at home at all this season. A good omen. Crystal Palace have conceded a total of 5 goals in the first half away this season and scored none and Manchester City have scored a total of 6 goals this season at home conceding none.
Putting 9 minutes into Soccer Mystic produces the following figures.

A very high liability in relation to the other matches today does reflect the probability of a draw happening but hopefully the stats will bare out and quite a healthy profit can be made. But remember nothing is without risk.

Top team Chelsea travel to Newcastle today in the penultimate 3pm premiership game today. This might be a slightly more dangerous match to lay the draw on as an early goal by the hosts would see the bet “greening” red! They have opened the scoring 3 times at home this season with an average time of 21 minutes and when they did concede first this came in the 13th minute. Chelsea have yet to concede a first goal when away but have an average opening goal time later in the game than Newcastle at the 33rd minute. A total of 4 goals being scored in the first half at home this season might suggest a “quick score strategy” and hope the opposition don’t counter. This of course wouldn’t happen in this case as Chelsea would come back with vengeance but the damage would be done to our trade. Putting this scenario into Soccer Mystic tells the story

While there seems to be little doubt about a goal in this game the distinct danger is that it will be the home side – not a good thing for this trade.

Back to some sort of normality as far as odds go comes the final 3pm kickoff between Watford and Southampton. The bookies favoutite is Southampton with odds of 2.32 but home side advantage and Watfords opening goal record at home may sway. The assurance of at least one goal by either side is bourne out by the fact that 11 goals have been scored in total over 3 games involving these two teams pitted against teams level or lower in the premiership. Watford have no “clean sheets” this season at home so if we populate Soccer Mystic with Watford’s Opening goal timing of 10 mins we get the following scenarios.

The final game today will have to wait as I have to go out soon.

Saturdays DOB of The Day

Todays DOB of the day is Dragon Symbol running in the 14:00 at the Ascot meeting. Preferring to lead the race and with the advantage of Oisin Murphy on board today. Murphy has failed to win on Dragon Symbol from the past 5 rides last winning at Kempton on the All-Weather back in April. While the All Weather surface seems to suit Dragon Symbol better he has won or placed in all but 1 of his 10 previous races in a varied going conditions. The racing Press have Napped him twice and has is tipped by 2 others.

Dragon Symbol is currently available to Back at 9.6 on the exchange at Betfair which you would lay off at odds of 4.8 in running (dont forget to click the “Keep” button when laying the bet.) Forecast odds for Dragon Symbol range about the 5.5 mark (9/2)
This is the best DOB selection of the day using my own criteria on the In-Running Trading Tool.
To get your free trial of this very worthwhile trading software please click the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

Todays “Back to Lay” Bet 1 Thursday

Friend or Foe

The first Back to Lay selection today is Friend or Foe running in the 14:00 at Warwick. I have backed it at for £3.38 (my origional stake plus profit from yesterday) at odds of 2.92 as the odds were falling but it seems I was a bit premature as the market has drifted out a bit to 3.05 as I write this. My lay order of £3.80 at a 15 tick drop to 2.62 probably wont get matched before the off but I am hopeful that the traders will help me out as the race gets under way. Having just watched his debut into chase racing on the 1st May this year , he was content to sit at second until about the 3rd from home where Briony Frost let him have his head and motored to victory, winning by nearly 5 lengths. His last outing as a hurdler was on heavy ground at Wincanton and he didn’t fare too well finishing 4th out of 5 finishers in the Betway Kingwell Hurdle on the 20th February 70 days previous . Making heavy work out of the heavy going it is plain that the going today at Warwick should suit him as the distance of 2m and good going seem to agree with him. Harry Cobden rides him today instead of Briony Frost but has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 rides. His other ride on Friend or Foe was on the 23 march 2019 where he came 10th over a bigger distance of 2m3f. At the 2 mile point he was just disputing the lead but faded badly after 2nd from home fortifying the desision to run him at 2m or there about to optimise his talent.
With 1 hour to go before the off the market on Friend or Foe is static at about 3.05-3.10
For more Back to lay selections and other in running trading opportunities a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by clicking the link below.

In-Running Trading Tool

DOB of the Day (Sunday 12 Sept)

Welcome to todays DOB of the Day Post where, unfortunately there is only 1 selection that meets the criteria laid down for this. La Petite Coco is running in the 14:20 at the Curragh this afternoon and whilst it would be the Ideal contender for today It has 2 horses in front of it in the betting who are both front runners and the markets probably wouldnt be able to sustain 3 selections shortening so much.
Timeform pace hints favour Love and Thundering Nights the two horses in question. I am going to give this one a miss today which after my luck yesterday with the Betfair “Outage” the damned thing will probably go on to win 🙄
There are some higher priced horses in other races which I am going to set betangel in practice mode to automate the process

I have created this automation rule to the exact instructions of the betangel maestro, Peter Webb, and I am running BetAngel in practice mode.

To get a free 14 day trial of the Betangel software by clicking the link below

Betangel Software free 14 day trial

The selections I have loaded into betangel are the top DOB possibilities as sorted by the In-Running Trading Tool

If you enlarge the sceenshot above you will see why onlt La Petite Coco was the only one to meet MY criteria, Heavenly Power, Point Lonsdale, and Barrington Court are out side of the odds scope While Fast Response and Turbulance have a “red” short in running total.
This is a “blind” trial as I have simply loaded the selections into betangel with instructions to back the horse 5 seconds before post time at current odds and put a corresponding DOB lay order in the market with instructions to keep when event goes in-play.
I have also instructed BetAngel to record the lowest in-play traded price for the selection.
I have done no other research apart from the initial findings as outlined about La Petite Coco.
To get a Free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

Todays DOB of the Day Friday 10 Sept

Todays DOB of the Day is Makinitup running at Sandown this afternoon in the 15:35.
Making the criteria easily this 3 yr old filly has raced 3 times winning twice. This is the first Handicap she has raced in but it seems that she is in the very capable hands of Cameron Noble as Timeform have posted this in their “Specific Pace Notes” –
“Hold-up horses normally aren’t favoured at this trip here and the pace forecast suggests MAKINITUP (IRE) should still be better placed than AREEHAA (IRE) to take advantage.”
A slight negative to this is that she is yet to run over good ground competitively and the market should be watched nearer post time to see where the money is going.
I however have thrown caution to the wind and Backed her at odds of 4.3 and placed my lay order into the market at odds of 2.13

As you can see her forecast odds are 3.25 so I am hoping that the market will come in closer to post time shortening the gap to my lay order. If you look closely at the image above you can see that as the pace note say Areehaa might well run from the front but is perhaps unable to sustain this as her DOB rate is just 50% and in actual fact she has drifted slightly in the market in response to money going onto Pearl bay who has been backed into 6.2 from about 6.8 a few minutes ago.
There is now just 40 minutes to post time and I apologise for the lateness of the post but I had a Puncture last Night putting me about 3 hours behind – Fridays!!!

If you like what you see please like this post and subsribe to my blog to get this sort of thing and more sent to you as I post.
A 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool is available by clicking the link below but be mindful to use it well as 7 days goes very quick when your selections are winning but you are just watching

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