Category Archives: Uncategorized

Fridays “Back to Lay” Selection for the second race at Fontwell

Pasvolsky

End of the working week for me and an empty house means a fun filled afternoon with the horses. First on my list today is Pasvolsky in the 13:35 at Fontwell. This is a slightly longer race today that he is used to running but watching previous races he has been a front runner. I have backed him at 5.3 with, like yesterday, original stake plus profits which amount’s to £3.79 a 15 tick drop lay order has been made for £5.18 at odds of 3.9.
With just an hour to go the odds have come into 4.8 giving me a 5 tick head start.
With the exception of his last run at Sandown on 24 April with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle Pasvolsky has Won or Placed under Tom Cannon on good or good to soft going over hurdles and won one and placed in his other NHF race.
Now at 4.7 (12:50pm) things could go well in this race.
The “In-Running Trading Tool” form table is below and clearly shows his front running form and particular notice should be taken of his in-play exchange prices

Click pic to open in a new tab

His short in run returns are in red figures and this marrys with his fading off in the races in which he placed or lost.
For this and other in play strategies a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool is available by clicking the link Below

In-Running Trading Tool

The SkyBet “Soccer Saturday Price Boost” 25th Sept 2021

Todays SSPB from SkyBet has Leicester, Everton, and Sheffield United all to win at a boosted price of 5/1 from 3/1
Leicester City are hosting Burnley and are currently mid table, looking for a 3 pointer to boost them up the table The last 2 home games have seen them hold Manchester City to just a 1 goal defeat and a 1-0 win against Wolves. Burnley have yet to win an away game and after losing to both Merseyside sides. Leicester have won 4 out of their last 6 meetings at home against Burnley with this fixture last season ending 4-2.
Verdict: Leicester win
Everton are playing Norwich City at Home and have a 100% record here this season. Winning both games this season 3-1 against Southampton and Burnley they are currently 6th in the league on 10 pts with the top three sides on 13 each. Norwich City have yet to score away this season and have lost both of their away games 1-0 and 5-0 against Arsenal and Man City resepectfully. In fact they have yet to win.
Verdict: Everton Win
The final game in this boosted treble is a bit more tricky and takes us to the championship where Sheffield Utd host Derby County. Having won just 1 game at home this season they have a bit of a mixed bag of results when playing on home soil. With the Yorkshire side being unbeaten this season in the last 4 games (Home and Away) and the fact that they have scored a total of 9 goals at home so far this season to Derby’s 2 away goals from 4 games it would seem a home win is on the cards.
Verdict: Tentertive Sheffield Utd win.
I am going to back this boost with the free £5.00 bet which SKYBET is giving away for any cash bet on the Chelsea game this lunchtime against Manchester City.
N.B. you must opt-in to the offer to receive the free bet but a bet of as little as 5p will secure your free bet.
It would be unfair to not mention that there is also a Sheffield “Draw” option to this boost and is priced at 11/1 I will also be using one of my other free bets on this option as well

Betfair “Outage”

Yesterday both the betfair sportsbook and exchange had an “Outage”
While this is quite unacceptable from a global platform such as this company, It is unfortunately a fact of life that we trust our bets to such incompetence.
My DOB selection was Mobarhin in the 17:50 at Lingfield and had to watch as my back stake went straight into the pocket of another while my Lay bet order was cancelled.
Betfair have apologised and promptly wished everyone good luck with todays betting
While my loss is minimal and accept that in the long and short of it my horse lost I think that Betfair actually dont care about it as the main of there business are traders who will be mostly unaffected by this as they are in and out of the markets very quickly and I suspect from the lack of noise on the social media from these traders that they probably came out on top.

Trading in-running 15:05 Ascot Love is Golden

Not the best bet of the day with only 8 tips I have just backed Love is Golden at betfair odds of 2.86 and put a lay order into the market at 2.56 in the 15:05 at Ascot
An average run style of 2 this horse has won twice over this distance and only traded in play poorly on good to firm going with best results on good to soft. Todays going at ascot is good and with this in mind i am looking at trading just 15 ticks.
It is one of the top 10 tipped horses of the day by the racing press and will subsequently start favourite and this is the first time Silvestre De Sousa has driven.
lets see what happens

Ladbrokes National League Treble Boost 7.5 to 9.0 Aldershot, Southend, and Chesterfield all to win

Is this a good bet or not?
Aldershot, currently 2nd from the bottom, are hosting Yeovil today and both teams are going into this game winless Aldershots only home game this season so far ended 0-1. Of the past 4 times these two sides have met Aldershot have won just one. Yeovil have won 2 – convincingly, and the other game ended 2-2. Aldershot have yet to break their scoring duck this season and the stats suggest that Yeovil with 1 goal in 1 game and that one being early only conceding 2 in the latter half of the second half might suggest a 1-1 draw at best for Aldershot.
Southend are playing away at Wealdstone and an away victory at Kings Lynn will likely boost confidence after losing at home to Stockport last time out. With just 1 goal each this season but a win for Southend so far this season might just give them the edge.
The last game in this treble sees an inform Chesterfield away at Kings Lynn in the game that is most likely to be a winning leg which means of course that it will be the only leg that loses in this topsy turvey sport. 2 wins and equal on points at the top of the league, Chesterfield have a great opportunity to overtake Dagenham to take top spot outright.
The win odds for these three teams are as follows
Aldershot 2.1
Chesterfield 1.95
Southend 1.73
Given the boosted odds of 9.0 the implied probability of this treble winning is just 11.11% making the probability of it losing 88.89%

Good luck in whatever you decide to do
Please gamble responsibly and in my opinion this would not be a responsible bet
Please like and follow me for more bet analysis and while you are here why not have a look at my other blog posts
Thanks for visiting