Ladbrokes Premiership Treble- Man City, Everton, and Crystal Palace All To Win Boosted to 9/1

This week Ladbrokes “Where the Nation Plays Pays” have created a high odds treble to entice the unsuspecting punted to bet with them.
The following games are in focus
Man City v Norwich City
Leeds Utd v Everton
Crystal Palace v Brentford
Looking at The Man City game first and week 1 didnt go to plan for the premiership champions losing away to Tottenham. Norwich City also lost 3-0 against Liverpool at Carrow Road in their first league match of 2021/2022. When the two sides last met in the Premier League , Manchester City came out on top 5-0 at Etihad Stadium in July 2020. It is hard to oppose Man City in this game especially having a first game defeat against them. They will be out to prove that they are still the league champions, Even more so with a packed stadium watching on.
Leeds Utd host Everton in the second of the three games and this is the game which may well throw the treble into doubt. Leeds are favourites to win this at odds of 2.2 with SkyBet and previous meetings of these two sides have seen Leeds win or draw 4 times out of the last 6. While Everton will be wanting to capture a top 4 lot in the legue Leeds Utd will be desperate to lift themselves from the bottom. The ever loyal Leeds fans may well be a factor as well.
Finally we come to a London derby between Crystal Palace who lost at Anfield last week 3-0 and the “mighty” Brentford who shocked Arsenal and probably the league in general by winning 2-0 in front of Jubilant home crowd. The recent form of Brentford in club friendlies have plainly boosted the players confidence and they will undoubtabley be up for a repeat performance this week.
All things considered and being the ever cautious punter that I am there will be other bets today with better probabilities, it is a Better Not verdict on this one.
Good Luck in whatever you decide and remember to bet responsibly.


Trading a Horse at 15 tick drop in-play

Of the many betting systems I have encountered in my quest for the “perfect retirement plan” the laying of horses at a shorter price than which you backed it at, is a common and often fatal “get rich quick” scheme many punters regret hearing about. But what if someone has put a lot of time and effort into finding runners that meet certain criteria and don’t actually kick the arse out of finding life changing profit, this might be a low risk opportunity to make your own little niche in the vast minefield that is trading horseracing. The someone I am talking about is a website called “In Running Trading Tool” and they have several schemes detailed on the site where you can use their stats to drill down to specific runners which stand every chance of fulfilling your expectations. To this end I am going to start yet another study into one of the systems listed and post my findings here on Bet-Or-Not so that you can Bet Or Not.
Before I get into the nuts and bolts of the system it may be worth explaining just what a “tick” is in terms of trading trading on the betting exchanges.
The odds on the exchanges (and bookmakers sites) are graduated and displayed as a decimal starting with 1.01 which equates to 1/1000 or “a thousand to one on” meaning bet £1000 to win a quid to 1000.00 which is 1000/1 or “bet a quid to win a thousand”. the graduations between these two extremes are known as ticks. Just to confuse matters further not all ticks are the same. For instance, 10 ticks above the odds of 1.01 are 1.1 (1/100), 10 ticks down from 1000.00 the odds are 950.00. So you can see that the closer you get to a 99.9% probability the closer the ticks are graduated. So if we are looking to lay a horse 15 ticks below the price we backed it at an odds on fav has to do a lot more work in terms of persuading the markets that it is going to win than a 100/1 ouside that perhaps just has to take the lead for a furlong to entice the markets to drop to 70/1 which is 15 ticks below. Its still not going to win but we will have taken our profit long before the finishing line. The all encompassing secret to this is identifying which runners are more likely to impress traders enough to warrant them backing the horse as it runs through the race.
The first thing that springs to mind is a “front runner” this is a horse that takes up the lead in a race and gives the impression that it has something to offer. While this can work sometimes I have just watched Every Breaking Wave lead from start to finish but only “DOBBED” at the last fence as the favourite chased him down. (Dobbing is another strategy where you back a horse at odds and lay it at odds whereby you double your money or lose the lot, hence the term Double Or Bust – another system for another study)
What the poeple at “In Running Trading” have done is narrow such runners down to starting prices, win percentages, and if the horse has been profitable in the past. With this work already done I can now settle down with this criteria and produce to you some profit and loss figures. On first look at this in a mid week race cards it seem that there are only going to be between 2 and 4 selections each day.
The criteria outlined on the website for this particular study are as follows

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5

The screenshot above shows how you should have the “short in Running” Tab set up and you can see that there is one selection showing in the shot, Robin Des Foret running at Killarney at 16:35. The forecast odds are 13.00 which is well within the parameters. Its win strike rate is 26.67% and it has a short in run return of £57.00
In actual fact there are 4 selections for today and with this website you can export specific selections into an excel spreadsheet which contains the whole history of each horse including previous race prices and in play lows as well as the tick drop count for each race and a host of other information too vast to list in this post
To this end I have exported todays selections and provided the spreadsheet for you to download

Check back later or do your own study to see how these runners faired and what profit is possible



To get your own 7 day trial of the in running trading tool click here

Ladbrokes Premier League Treble . Leicester, Aston Villa and Brighton all to Win 9/1 (was 8/1)

With the Premier League back in action this weekend the bookies are eager to make more profit off the unsuspecting punter and today’s focus is on the ever greedy Ladbrokes and their Premier League Treble.
Leicester are at home to Wolves this afternoon and with fans being allowed back into stadiums the home side advantage must be taken into consideration and with each new season brings the uncertainty of lack of stats. Looking at last season’s last 5 games for these teams Leicester won 3 out of the 5 with 2 being away to Man Utd and Chelsea with the other win at home against the mighty Man City. These two sides last met on 8 Nov where the winning goal was a 15th minute penalty by Vardy. Wolverhampton are full of uncertainty with a new manager in the saddle and a tentative vote on the side of Leicester goes to this Match.
The next game in the treble is the newly promoted Watford hosting Aston Villa and who would have thought Brentford would have given Arsenal a spanking last night, could the same happen this afternoon with these two teams? I have Traore in my VirginBet fives team and really hope he scores a hat-trick. Watford scored in every home game last season bar one which was against Cardiff in December. Aston Villa, last season, came out on a winning mission being victorious in all four of their opening games scoring a total of 12 goals. Home side advantage may play a part in this game but on previous goal scoring ability and the loss of Grealish to Man City not withstanding another tentative vote goes to Aston Villa.
Brighton travel to Burnley today and this it would seem is likely to be the bogey match. Winning just 5 away games last season their start to the 20/21 season did not inspire confidence. This fixture in February ended 1-1 and ended goalless in their previous meeting to that. perhaps 2-2 might be a progressive step as home advantage with a full ground today may make the difference. Both of these sides were in danger of sinking into the Championship last season and my vote goes to a score draw
As with all these trebles better odds may be found elsewhere and the same odds can be got on smarkets and Betfair sportbook is offering 9.5 (17/2) unboosted.
This treble is a tricky one as there is no real recent form to reference and with all things being equal a max stake bet is out of the question but a sneaky quid may well be acceptable
Good luck with whatever you decide to do and please gamble responsibly

Simon Holt (Sporting Life Tipster) More In-depth study

Further to my previous blog post about the Sporting Life Recommended bets. Simon Holt (@SimonHolt3) had an outstanding May with his racing tips and this post is just about breaking down the figures into which category of race made the most points profit. His profit to advised odds for May was 41.3 points and was all flat racing tips over various distances and an even spread of handicap and Non-handicap races.
Starting with his Handicap race tips, he tipped horses in a total of 18 handicap races with 5 winning tips (28%) gaining 11.8 points profit at S.P. and 24.5 points profit at Advised Odds. If we drill this down further into race distances his profit was greatest when he tipped horses in 5f sprints, achieving 12 points profit from 2 winners out of 3 tips at advised odds in handicap races and 8.8 points from the same strike rate in Non-Handicap races. The tables below show the races in which he had success and those which failed!!

the whole spreadsheet can be downloaded by clicking the link below

William Hill Boosted Bet Raheem Sterling To Have Over 2 Shots On Target (90 Mins) – Was 9/2

With 3 goals to his name Raheem Sterling seems to have gone from a press induced no hoper case to a serious contender for the Golden Boot. It is true that his season at Manchester City did not match up to the hype given at the start of the season but he has replied to his critics with a resounding middle finger by becoming England’s top scorer in the European Championships. This bet is all about shots on target and while you might be suckered into the belief that shots on target are a better bet than actual goals you may be surprised at how few shots on target by individual players there are.
To begin with I will look at the Total shots on target recorded by England in the tournament so far

England v Croatia 1-0
There were a total of 8 shots AT goal in this game but only 2 were on target

England v Scotland 0-0
There were a total of 9 shots AT goal in this game but only 1 was on target

Czech Republic v England 0-1
There were a total of 5 shots AT goal in this game but only 3 were on target

England v Germany 2-0
There were a total of 5 shots AT goal in this game and 4 of them were on Target

As you can see England have steadily improved their shooting accuracy but these figures show shots on target for the whole team not one player. Without taking anything away from Sterling as I think he is a star player in this England Squad, if we look at his season stats for Man City last season in the UEFA Champions League he averaged just 1.1 shot on target. If you couple this with the assumption that The Czech Republic will see him as the biggest threat to their goal I cannot see him having many chances and will in inimitable Sterling style wait for his given opportunity and score when they least expect it
In my opinion to expect 3 shots on target from any player in this tournament in a single game is a bit of a stretch and is worth considerably more than a measly 6/1 (7.0)

William Hill Cross Match Special “Czech Republic, Denmark, Ukraine & England All To Score 90 Mins – Was 13/5”

William Hill Boast “Nothing Beats William Hill when it comes to betting on football”
This I suppose can be taken in different contexts and being a devout cynic of bookmakers in general I tend to be suspicious when they offer such low odds (4.33) on such a preposterous bet – England to concede to the Ukraine – never have I heard such a thing.!!! but this is what you are betting on in effect.
Let’s have a look at the stats for the first of these games today

Czech Republic v Denmark
In their 4 previous games, Czech Republic has kept 2 clean sheets against Scotland and Netherlands winning both games 2-0. Denmark has on the other hand only 1 clean sheet. The Czech Republic has scored 5 goals in the tournament so far. Patrik Schik has 4 of these goals for the Czech Republic and could well be worth a punt at the Golden Boot. Denmark and Spain have scored the most goals this competition with 9 to their name in the normal 90 minutes of a game so this part of the bet may well see each team scoring in 90 minutes (BTTS odds with WH are 2.05! 2.14 are available on SBK (Smarkets Sportsbook))

Ukraine V England Kickoff at 8pm tonight and William Hill are offering odds of 2.25 for BTTS making a BTTS double 4.61!!! This is bigger than their boosted bet – Is it any wonder bookies are not trusted pillars of the community!!
England go into this game with a 100% clean sheet record and while 2-0 has been Englands biggest tally of goals in a game this bet is all about keeping the ball out of the net as far as William Hill are concerned. Ukraine have conceded goals in each of their Euro games and failing to score once against Austria.
In my humble opinion 3 out of these 4 teams will score but duty binds me not to bet on The Ukraine shattering England’s Clean sheet record but If you were to back this a BTTS double pays more than the boosted bet, and they are the same bet!!
Good Luck in what you decide.

Sporting Life Recommended Bets May Study

Sporting Life, the website, boasts a 3000+ pts profit over the last 17 years and an impressive 214 pts profit for May this year. I could do with a couple of hundred quid each month so let’s see how they did it. Sporting Life tips section is the place to find the Recommended bets and they have a fully checkable archive. In this post I am going to delve into the various sections of the May 2021 to find out who or what made the money and who or what let the side down.
Beginning with the racing section there are a total of 7 different “tipsters”, For instance Weekend view deals with just ante post bets for the coming weekend and “Punting Pointers” generally has a selection each day.

As this is going to be a long-winded affair, instead of having reams of information, I am going to put their results into an excel spreadsheet and make it available to view at your leisure or if you wish to contact me I can send it directly to you.
Each spreadsheet will contain the following information.
1. Date
2. Selection
3. Advised Odds
4. Advised Odds Profit/Loss
5. S.P. Odds
6. S.P. Odds Profit/Loss
7. Result
I am adding the S.P. data as these selections odds tend to shorten considerably from the tips publication point to the starting gate. With this we can identify the tipsters the bookies fear just like the good old days of “Pricewise”
First up is “Punting Pointers” who has an overall profit of 6.85 points from 76 bets at advised odds for the merry month of May. If you had backed these at S.P. then you would have lost 3.78 points. At £2.00 per point gives an advised monetary profit of £13.70 and at S.P. a monetary loss of £7.56. Not bad for a months fun, but it doesnt end there! Next for the 3rd degree is Weekend View

Weekend View consists of Ante Post Bets for the coming weekend. Many people are wary of ante-post betting as it is an istant loss should the trainer withdraw his charge before final declarations. This said however the plus side is that there is often a much bigger price to be snaffled betting Ante Post. As with the punting pointers spreadsheet I will be including the S.P. results for the faint hearted who want to wait for race day.

Value Bets is the next “Tipster” and the advised bets are usually of a bigger price. Strangely though the advice is, more often than not, to place win bets and not E/W bets and more than one has placed at odds of more than 10/1. I have included in this spreadsheet the figures for backing each horse each/way and assumed the bookies paid 1/5 odds on a place. Doing this got a 1.3 point profit instead of a -6 point loss.

With the general “Tipsters” analysed I will move onto the brave souls who actually put their name to their selections. It seems that one or two may well need to keep their money in their wallet while there is one who does well putting his money where his mouth is.
Fran Berry seems to be the Irish specialist and achieved a loss of 2.94 points in May to advised odds whereas backing the selections at starting price gave a loss of 13.12 points suggesting that Mr Berry is perhaps a bit of a “pricewise” and some more research might hit upon some tasty “Back to Lay” opportunities.

Moving on to the next tipster for no other reason than he is next on the list is Simon Holt. Simon Holt is the most successful tipster in may with a massive 41.3 point profit to advised odds. Starting Price profit is significantly lower at 16.67 points profit for May. Backing to lay is definitely an option but pointless when the man is in such good form!

As with everything racing, these figures should not and don’t reflect a gaurenteed profit each month and more research should be done before blindly punting good money onto bad horses. That said however, betting is fun as long as you stay within your limits. Simon Holt advised a total of 38 points which is just over £1.00 per day working to 1 point = £1.00 that to my mind is fun. If you start working to £10.00 = 1 point then things are a little more serious.

Just as a pointer to previous months Simon Holt had the following gains/losses
April -20.5pts
March -16.25
February +1.38
January +4
As you can see not life-changing but up over the year so far, but how many of you would have followed him into May betting £10/point, and how many of you would still be with him at £1/point.
I will be posting which type of race he and the others seem to do well at and which to avoid. Follow me so as not to miss it and other factual snippets to hopefully enable you not to give too much money to the blood-sucking bookies!!

Ladbrokes Early Kick-Off Treble, Leeds Utd , Rangers, and St Johnstone all to Win.

Boosted from 5.5 (9/2) to 6.5 (11/2) this lunchtime treble seems feasible at first sight. All the teams are above their opponents in their respective leagues. Leeds are playing Burnley away and Burnley are having a big winless spell at home having not won a game at home in the last 8 games. Leeds however have lost 9 times this season away from home with notable defeats at Brighton (2-0) and Crystal Palace (4-1). Most of their wins have come from playing teams in the lower half of the league. Burnley’s position at 15th owes much to their ability to draw games and save the point having reached that result 6 times at home this season. Perhaps this will be Leeds Utd’s first draw this season away from home. Leeds are 2.15 to win.
Top of the Scottish Premiership are Rangers who, at home have only conceded 4 goals all season. They host Aberdeen this lunchtime and seem quite invincible. The score in the reverse fixture was 0-1. Rangers have won 6 of their last 8 matches scoring 1st in 32 of their 37 league games. The stats on this game are of little consequence – If Rangers Lose today something is seriously wrong in Scottish football. Rangers are 1.25 to win.
St Johnstone is the third lunchtime fixture in this boosted treble and are playing Livingston at home and of the last 4 home games have won just 2, losing to Aberdeen and drawing 1-1 with Rangers. This does not however reflect their recent form over the last 8 games gaining 14 points from 8 matches relates to 1.75 points per game. Livingston’s recent 8 game form on the other hand is abysmal with only 4 points losing their last 3 away games to Hibs, Celtic, and Motherwell. St Johnstone are 2.25 to win at home.
In summary, Rangers have to be the banker in this trio there is a distinct possibility of Leeds drawing for the first time away this season and the odds don’t marry with Livingston’s recent form and I am a bit suspicious about St Johnstones odds being greater than evens!
Good Luck I whatever you decide
Ladbrokes won’t close my account but neither will they allow me to put even 5p on this bet. Bit childish really.