Tag Archives: betfair trading

Using the In-Running Trading Tool with the Racing Press Top Tipped Horses to determine “Back to Lay” selections

In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool”
The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings.
I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters
DOB % >= 50%
Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75%
Win % >= 20%
These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site.
This gave me this screen

Click the picture to enlarge in another tab

The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were
15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden
15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt
15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame
16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord
17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel
18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings
18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark
18:45 Kempton; Altraif
19:15 Kempton; Jumbly
19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express
Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list
Love is Golden amd Jumbly
Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board.
By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:

Click the image to open in a new tab

We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality.
In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded

Back Bet
Lay bet

The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5
A successful Trade!
Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark
Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam.
With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths
You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet
Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!

To get a free 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool click the banner below. Please like this post if you want more posts in the same vein.

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To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.

betfair-tick-counterDownload

There are 3 horses meeting the criteria today (4th Sept)
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock

Please bet responsibly

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3 Results

Just 2 horses finished 1st yesterday from the 10 most tipped horses and these were Finest Sound and Find both running at Yarmouth. An absolute disastrous day as far as level bet wagering was concerned, however, as in the previous 2 days there was a 100% strike rate in the 15 tick drop system. This makes it 30 for 30. In the table below you can see that there were a couple of near things but the facts remain, from the 3 days trialled I have come away with profits each day.

HorseMeeting TimeTipsB.S.P.i-p Low15 TickResult
Mahanakhen PowerYarmouth13:3073.811.63.052nd
BeltaneBeverley13:55112.531.852.222nd
Finest SoundYarmouth14:0582.961.012.661st
FindYarmouth14:40111.341.011.191st
Firth of ClydeGoodwood14:50111.591.091.442nd
Epic PassGoodwood15:2582.221.931.962nd
RhoscolynGoodwood16:0065.233.83.853rd
Just FineGoodwood16:3572.361.882.06Last
Molly ShawYarmouth17:0073.822.23.054th
Cool SpiritBeverley17:2073.572.642.927th

Todays’ top tipped horses are, as with previous posts in this study, exported from the In-Running Trading tool website in the form of an easy to view spreadsheet. Included in this information is each runners previous BSP and in-play low odds as well as its average tick drop for all races it has run in.

top-tipped-30aug2021Download

I have also included for your convenience my own 15 tick drop calculator simply enter your back odds and stake in the appropriate boxes and the odds for a 15 tickdrop and the required stake to obtain a level profit if the horse wins or loses will automatically be shown. The commission rate is set at 2% by default and this can also be changed by entering your own rate.

betfair-tick-counterDownload

If you want to learn more on trading in play and want free access to all the stats provided by In Running Trading Tool you can get a free 7 day trial of the In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below.

In-Running Trading Tool

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3

With a 100% strike rate can this system make it 3 days in a row. Sundays are notoriously frustrating in the tipsters department – perhaps it is the drowning of their sorrows after yet another week of failed NAPs and felled favourites or just ashamed to show their faces but there never seems to be the same amount of tips submitted on Sundays. That being said when they band together in splendid isolation it seems that sometimes they know something. Yesterdays crop of 10 most tipped horses managed a win strike percentage of 60% but more importantly they ALL traded in play 15 ticks below their B.S.P. Admittedly the returns on these trades are minimal and just 1 failed trade would wipe out the days profit, but if we were to lay the trade at the same odds but with just a covering stake if the horse went on to win – which 7 did on Friday and 6 yesterday – the maths changes significantly. For Instance
The first horse in the list yesterday was Barn Owl which went of at a BSP of 3.05 and won
If we had laid to an equal profit at 15 ticks the lay stake would have been £11.30 at odd of 2.72 if we had backed it at £10.00 we would have come away with a £1.07 profit if the horse won or lost.
Alternatively if we had Underlaid with a lay stake of £10.20 if the horse won (which it did) the profit rises to £2.96 but breaks even if the horse loses, winning or losing nothing. Something to think about if this study pans out to be a viable system.
Anyway yesterdays full results are as follows

HorseMeetingTimeTipsBSPi-p low15 tick oddsResult
Barn OwlBeverley14:0583.051.012.721st
ManaccanNewmarket14:1082.391.012.081st
GladiatorialCartmel14:5091.651.011.51st
NaganoGoodwood15:00101.751.091.62nd
AquamanNewmarket15:2092.632.32.323rd
Live Your DreamNewmarket15:5591.991.821.844th
FireworksBeverley17:00121.161.011.011st
Bellstreet BridieRedcar17:40102.421.62.122nd
AlqamarCartmel17:50102.681.012.381st
Solid StoneWindsor18:3093.661.012.961st

Totays top tipped horses are provided below as a spreadsheet exported from In Running Trading Tool and lists the runners, previous form, previous BSP and in-play lows, running style, and a whole host of other information.
Simply click download to have this information at your fingertips

top-tipped-29aug2021Download

Also provided to help you determine the 15 tick drop needed I provide my own Tick drop calculator
To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.

betfair-tick-counterDownload

To get the previous 2 blogs on this study click the link below

Yesterdays Post

It will open in a new window for your convenience.

To get a free 7 day trial of the information that is provided by In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further

Due to my workload this past week I have been unable to carry on my study of the 15 tick “system” but yesterday when I was going back through my bets of the “most Tipped horses” it struck me that even though most of the bets were just over evens or odds on there were too many losers! What if I employed the 15 tick system to all of the highly tipped horses. So without further ado I listed the 10 most tipped horses of the day and exported thier form from the “InRunning Trading Tool” website into the spreadsheet I have provided below

top-tipped-27aug2021Download

Of these 10 horses 4 of them did not win (Alhezabr later being dropped to 2nd place in a stewards enquiry) but ALL of them traded at at least 15 ticks below their B.S.P making a 100% strike rate.

HorseMeetingTimeTipsBSPi-p low15 tick oddsresult
Silk RomanceNewmarket13:10111.751.011.61st
Razzle DazzleNewmarket14:2091.951.011.81st
Percy’s PrideFfos Las15:05101.421.011.271st
AlhezabrFfos Las15:40102.041.081.872nd
AsjadFfos Las16:10131.791.121.642nd
Kentucky RoseHamilton16:3593.921.13.142nd
Thunder LegendHamilton17:10111.671.011.521st
Sweet BelieverHamilton18:10121.831.011.681st
Country PyleGoodwood18:23142.681.132.323rd
MahrajaanHamilton18:40102.441.012.141st

As you can see from the table above the 2 most tipped horses Country Pyle (14 tips) and Asjad (13 tips) managed just 3rd and 2nd respectively, but easily managed to impress the traders enough in running to bring the price down to very low odds indeed!
I have produced a spreadsheet to help me determine the odds at which a 15 tick drop lay bet should be placed in relation to the B.S.P. or the actual odds that was available anytime before the off. This is also available for download below

betfair-tick-counterDownload

To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
I have also provided todays 10 most tipped horses exported from Inrunning Trading Tool spreadsheet for your perusal you can download this by clicking down load below



top-tipped-28aug2021Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections (Monday 23rd Aug 2021)

Using the same criteria even though one runner yesterday went out of scope on the B.S.P. there are two probable selections for today
Just to remind you of the criteria

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5


The first is Café Sydney in the 15:15 at Brighton. With a win rate percentage of 16.67 and a forecasted B.S.P. of 13.00 Mollie Phillips has piloted this horse to a 65 tick drop at Leicester last time out and a massive 193 tick drop at its last time running here at Brighton. I think that it is worth mentioning the “Race style” column on the spreadsheet. This is represented by the numbers 1-4 with 1 being a front runner and 4 liking the veiw of the other horses arses! The average race style of Cafe Sydney is 3 but in its last 7 Runnings 3 of which it won, albeit on the all weather, the actual race style was 4 and only once did it not meet the 15 tick drop threshold and that was at Windsor on soft ground. This suggests that it likes other horses to make the running and then break from behind but doesn’t like soft going. With the going at Brighton this afternoon being good, hopes are high for this one.
The second selection on the list is Ballon Onabudget (who thinks these names up?) which has a forecasted B.S.P. of just 3.50 and looking at the betting markets is currently 3rd fav at 4.5 at SkyBet. A winrate % of 20.05% and running over 2 miles today instead of its usual 3ish miles (its last 9 outings have been between 2m6f and 3m2f. Its average race style is actually 3 but the last twice it ran over todays distance it was 2 hinting that at the shorter distance it likes to be in touch with the leader in the hopes of making that final break for it near the end. With only 5 runners in the race today I think that on previous form and with Johnathan Burke on board we may have a 1-2 clean up today lets face it I need it after yesterday.
As I have done previously I have provided the spreadsheet detailing these two runners form, race styles and starting odds etc. for download by clicking the link below

inrunningtradingtool-26Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading at 15 tick drop Todays Selections

With a 100% success yesterday the selections for this study as determined by the criteria defined on In Running Trading Tool website are as follows

  1. Viking Ruby 13:35 Worcester
  2. Affable 15:30 Naas
  3. Beyond Equal 17:20 Sandown

Viking Ruby has a forecast B.S.P of 13.00 and a “Short In Running” return of £17.00. A win rate percentage of 15.79% put it just within the parameters required
Affable has the biggest win rate percentage of 23.53% and a forecast B.S.P. of just 6.00. “Short In Running” returns are £3.50 and an average “Tick Drop” of 94!
Beyond Equal with a forecast B.S.P. of 11.00 and a profitable “Short In Running” figure of £3.50 as well as a 20% win rate percentage
As yesterday the complete form, previous B.S.P and in play low prices along with average race style and a host of other information is availale in the form of a spreadsheet that you can download from the link below.

inrunningtradingtool-24Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

Trading a Horse at 15 tick drop in-play

Of the many betting systems I have encountered in my quest for the “perfect retirement plan” the laying of horses at a shorter price than which you backed it at, is a common and often fatal “get rich quick” scheme many punters regret hearing about. But what if someone has put a lot of time and effort into finding runners that meet certain criteria and don’t actually kick the arse out of finding life changing profit, this might be a low risk opportunity to make your own little niche in the vast minefield that is trading horseracing. The someone I am talking about is a website called “In Running Trading Tool” and they have several schemes detailed on the site where you can use their stats to drill down to specific runners which stand every chance of fulfilling your expectations. To this end I am going to start yet another study into one of the systems listed and post my findings here on Bet-Or-Not so that you can Bet Or Not.
Before I get into the nuts and bolts of the system it may be worth explaining just what a “tick” is in terms of trading trading on the betting exchanges.
The odds on the exchanges (and bookmakers sites) are graduated and displayed as a decimal starting with 1.01 which equates to 1/1000 or “a thousand to one on” meaning bet £1000 to win a quid to 1000.00 which is 1000/1 or “bet a quid to win a thousand”. the graduations between these two extremes are known as ticks. Just to confuse matters further not all ticks are the same. For instance, 10 ticks above the odds of 1.01 are 1.1 (1/100), 10 ticks down from 1000.00 the odds are 950.00. So you can see that the closer you get to a 99.9% probability the closer the ticks are graduated. So if we are looking to lay a horse 15 ticks below the price we backed it at an odds on fav has to do a lot more work in terms of persuading the markets that it is going to win than a 100/1 ouside that perhaps just has to take the lead for a furlong to entice the markets to drop to 70/1 which is 15 ticks below. Its still not going to win but we will have taken our profit long before the finishing line. The all encompassing secret to this is identifying which runners are more likely to impress traders enough to warrant them backing the horse as it runs through the race.
The first thing that springs to mind is a “front runner” this is a horse that takes up the lead in a race and gives the impression that it has something to offer. While this can work sometimes I have just watched Every Breaking Wave lead from start to finish but only “DOBBED” at the last fence as the favourite chased him down. (Dobbing is another strategy where you back a horse at odds and lay it at odds whereby you double your money or lose the lot, hence the term Double Or Bust – another system for another study)
What the poeple at “In Running Trading” have done is narrow such runners down to starting prices, win percentages, and if the horse has been profitable in the past. With this work already done I can now settle down with this criteria and produce to you some profit and loss figures. On first look at this in a mid week race cards it seem that there are only going to be between 2 and 4 selections each day.
The criteria outlined on the website for this particular study are as follows

1. Settings as Default

2. Open the ShortInRunning tab

3. Sort by win% column, highest at the top.

4a. Selections must have at least a 15% win strike rate 

4b. They must also have a positive figure in black in the ShortInRun column, directly to the left of the Green% column.

5. Max BSP is less than 21 and Min BSP is greater than 2.5

The screenshot above shows how you should have the “short in Running” Tab set up and you can see that there is one selection showing in the shot, Robin Des Foret running at Killarney at 16:35. The forecast odds are 13.00 which is well within the parameters. Its win strike rate is 26.67% and it has a short in run return of £57.00
In actual fact there are 4 selections for today and with this website you can export specific selections into an excel spreadsheet which contains the whole history of each horse including previous race prices and in play lows as well as the tick drop count for each race and a host of other information too vast to list in this post
To this end I have exported todays selections and provided the spreadsheet for you to download

inrunningtradingtool-23Download

Check back later or do your own study to see how these runners faired and what profit is possible



To get your own 7 day trial of the in running trading tool click here