Tag Archives: horse

Timeform 5* selections for 8th June 2024

Timeform is a respected and well followed source of racing form and they rate each horse for each race by using a star rating. You may have read my post on using this rating system to pick your horses for the ITV 7 well what if you were to back each 5 star rated horse in every race for a day.
Below is a PDF of the 5 star Runners for 8th June 2024 and how they faired. The figures are based upon the ISP (Industry Starting Price) and the stakes reflect a £5.00 profit should the horse win. It is worth noting that at least one of these selections (Billyb) was available at odds greater than the starting price as I actually backed it at odds of 4.50 at 11am that morning.

08-june-2024-timeform-5-star-selectionsDownload

If you had backed each 5 star rated horse that ran on this day to a £1.00 level stake you would have got a profit of £3.87 which is a 10.18% ROI (Return on Investment)
If you had backed them as I do to a £5.00 target profit then you would have a £24.93 profit but the stakes involved are greater! My total stakes for all races would have been £117.94 for that £24.93 profit but it is still a 21% ROI
After a quick analysis of the results there were a total of 38 runners of which 15 won which is a 39.5% strike rate.
More interestingly is the fact that if you had backed the horses which ran in just the handicap races then of the 31 handicap races run 27 actuall ran of which 12 won.
This gave a profit of £12.41 to level £1.00 stakes giving a 46% ROI. Staking the horses to a £5.00 target profit gave a profit of £32.52 for a total of £58.79 stake money yielding a 55.3% ROI.
This is just 1 days analysis but it seems that it may be worth pursuing further.

timeforms-5-star-rated-horsesDownload

The above file can be downloaded so you can do your own analysis

More on this to come
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Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 6th June

What a couple of days!!
Needed a puncture repaired yesterday on my wife’s car so was only able to post the results but did manage to get the bets on and today I was caught up in that disaster area called Oxford with no way round it as my last delivery this morning was in Bicester. So I am sat with a great big Gin and Tonic
This post will serve as both information and results
Wednesday saw a good winner in Phoenix Passion yielding a £6.75 profit giving an overall profit for the month of £7.36.

Hugh Taylor tipped 3 horses yesterday and the same format for my bets remains the same with the exception of Half Moon Rising which runs in the 5:10 at Haydock and is first to run and is an e/w bet. For this I worked out the stake needed for the £5.00 profit and simply did an e/w bet at S.P doubling the stake so to speak.
As I mentioned Half Moon Rising ran first at Haydock in the 5:10
Advised Odds were 28/1 (29.0)
By the time i was able to get a bet on the odds had dropped to 11/1 (12) so the stake was 45p E/W this being a total of 90p

I did think that this might have had a halfway chance as SkyBet were paying 4 places, should have known better but the odds did drift not as much to the advised price but to 18/1 (19.0)
Next on the card was Alpen Power running at Chelmsford in the 6:45 and I backed it for £1.50 at S.P. which means that the odds available must have been around 10/3 (4.33) from an advised price of 9/2

As you can see the price continued to shorten until post time
Finally and when I was on my way to Dagenham for my first delivery Divine Breath ran in the 8:15 also at Chelmsford. Backed at S.P. at odds relating to a £5.00 profit of 11/8 (2.38) down from advised odds of 2/1 (3.0)

The odds recovered a bit, not to the level of the advised price but enough to give me an extra £1.34 over my £5.00 target.
So another win yesterday has increased my Monthly profit to £11.30.

Next post will be Todays selections and bet amounts.