Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Only one selection today and is as Follows
6:10 Hamilton Cargin Bhui Advised Odds 11/4 (3.75) Odds available at 10:30 : 2/1 (3.0) Stake 2.50 Result –
Yesterday I backed all four of Hugh Taylors ATR racing tips but instead of clamoring to get my money on before the odds disappeared I simply backed them at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)
First in the List was Sea of Thieves in the 2:00 at Epsom Downs at an advised price at publication of 14/1. This was published at 9:11 and by 10:30 the odds were 9/1. I backed this at S.P. for 56p which would have given me £5.00 profit if the odds stayed at 9/1 or a bonus amount if the odds drifted and by some miracle the horse won.
As you can see from the settled bet that the price did drift, not to the advised price but close and if it had won would have given a profit of £6.72 instead of the £5.00 at the 9/1 price.
Second to run was Billy Webster in the 3:10 again at Epsom. Published at 9:24 at advised odds of 10/1. I again backed this at S.P. for a stake of 83p as the odds available at 10:30 were down to 6/1
The calculation for these bets is simple Target profit / Decimal odds -1 £5.00 / (7.00 – 1)
By Post Time the odds had drifted to 14/1 which would have given a profit of £11.62 if it had won.
Taylors next selection to run was also at Epsom and he tipped Relentless Voyager in the 5:15 at an advised price of 13/2 (7.5) at the publication time of 9:03. By 10:30 these odds had sunk to 4/1 or 5.0 in decimal. Backed at S.P. for a stake of £1.00 to reap a £5.00 profit if the odds didn’t sink further.
As you can see the odds drifted out to 7/1 (8.0) at post time and the horse won giving a profit of £7.00 instead of the £5.00 target figure.
Taylors fourth and final runner was at Doncaster in the 6:15 and was published on the ATR website at 09:39. Wild Waves price was advised at 9/2 (5.50) at this time and an hour later was a mere 5/2 (3.50) on Sky Bet. Backed at S.P. for a £2.00 stake my target profit if the odds didn’t dip below this price and if the horse won would again be £5.00
As you can see from my settled bet slip This horse also won at 11/4 (3.75) and while the odds didn’t reach those of the advised price by a long chalk they did drift slightly from the 3.50 giving me a profit of £5.50
My Total profit from these four bets ended up at £11.11 from a total of £4.39 staked! Better than being poked in the eye with a sharp stick I think.
I know that if I had used another bookmaker that offered BOG then I would have had guaranteed odds and could have taken the price offered without fear of the odds dipping some more. As it is if I had taken the prices offered by SkyBet at the time of striking the bets then my profit would have been £8.61 – £2.50 less than my actual profit. If you had used the same staking method AND had been able to get the ADVISED prices then the profit would have been as follows
Sea of Thieves Advised odds 15.00 Stake 36p Lost P/L -36p Billy Webster Advised odds 11.00 Stake 50p Lost P/L -50p Relentless Voyager Advised odds 7.5 Stake 77p Won P/L £5.01 Wild Waves Advised odds 5.5 stake £1.11 Won P/L 4.99
Requesting your own “build a bet” is not as daunting as first supposed they can only say no or more probably not reply at all but in the cases where they do price your bet they sometimes feature it on the platform. Firstly you need to be armed with your own figures and an idea of what sort of markets you are going to put in to it. To this end I have the beginnings of a Workbook for the premiership which will list the following probable outcomes based on the seasons figures for each team involved. Full Time Goals Half Time Goals Match Shots Match Shots on Target Match Fouls Match Corners Booking Points BTTS
The following is a screen Shot of the stats and actual results from the 2nd game of the season Arsenal v Notts Forest
Arsenal v Notts Forest Sat 12 Aug 2023
The data on the left is collated from all the games Arsenal played at home in the premiership in the season 22/23 and all the games Notts Forest played away in the season The figures on the right are the actual stats from the game played. As you can see the predictions were right on all counts save total shots and the BTTS predictions.
The following games were played that first league week Burnley v Manchester City – No Data
Arsenal v Nott’m Forest – As Above
Bournemouth v West Ham
Bournemouth v West Ham Sat 12 Aug 23
Brighton v Luton – No Data
Sheffield Utd v Crystal Palace – No Data
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Newcastle Utd v Aston Villa Sat 12 Aug 23
Brentford V Tottenham
Brentford v Tottenham Sun 13 Aug 23
Chelsea v Liverpool
Chelsea v Liverpool Sun 13 Aug 23
Man Utd v Wolves
Man Utd v Wolves Mon 14 Aug 23
As you can see from the above screenshots there was just one match which was a winner with all selections coming in.
Nott’m Forest v Sheffield Utd – No Data
Fulham v Brentford – 0-3
Fulham v Brentford Sat 19 Aug 23
Liverpool v Bournemouth – 3-1
Liverpool v Bournemouth Sat 19 Aug 23
Wolves v Brighton – 1-4 Note – The actual corners leg won as the prediction was 8+ ie 8 or more but the bet still lost on the BTTS leg ( I will explain the intricates of the bets below as some bookmakers interpret the wording of bets differently to others)
Wolves v Brighton Sat 19 Aug 23
Tottenham v Man Utd – 2-0
Tottenham v Man Utd Sat 19 Aug 23
Man City v Newcastle Utd – 1-0
Man City v Newcastle Utd Sat 19 Aug 23
Aston Villa v Everton – 4-0
Aston Villa v Everton Sun 20 Aug 23
West Ham v Chelsea – 3-1
West Ham v Chelsea Su 20 Aug 23
Crystal Palace v Arsenal – 0-1
Crystal Palace v Arsenal Mon 21 Aug 23
Luton Town v Burnley – No Data This match was postponed until 3rd Oct 23
Week 2 saw two of our bet builder bets winning but we are regularly being let down by the BTTS selection but I am getting a degree of success with this workbook when I back test Week 3 saw another two builda bets coming in Bournemouth v Tottenham and Newcastle v Liverpool with 2 more being let down by the BTTS leg.
What odds can you expect to get with these bets? That depends on the bookmakers who are willing to price these bets up! You can request these bets via the twitter (or X as it is now known) by using the individual betting sites hash tag address and I found that if you sent your request to them with all of the bookies hash tags in the message then whether or not they thought they might be in competition with each other the odds tended to come back slightly better. The following was one such bet I requested for the Leicester City v West Brom game on 20th April
Typical request a bet post
I got a quick response from Coral with favourable odds of 7/1 (8.0) I also got a message from SkyBet saying that I could build this bet on there platform but this was not strictly true as they didn’t offer some of the legs that I requested. But it is always wise to shop around.
This bet lost 🙄 on the corners leg as I requested a price on the Over 10.5 instead of 10+ market If I had worded this as “10+ Corners” it would have won!!! as there was exactly 10 corners in the match
Lastly I will provide this work in Progess worksheet for you to backtest the entire season if you wish however the 3 promoted sides last season – Burnley, Luton and Sheffield Utd will have no data for the 22/23 season
A disappointing 6th place yesterday so I am £2.00 down. Today I have
12:40 Meydan
Ardakan Backed at 7/1 with Betfred Placing twice in his last two outings and both time as favourite. this Marco Botti trained colt has in total started 6 times and placed in 4 of those races. This is his first time over 2 miles and just his 3 run for Botti after moving from Markus Klug’s Yard Paying on 4 places in this Dubai Gold Cup
OLBG (Online Bookmaker Guide) produce on a daily basis the accumulated tips from the best performing tipsters on the site and publish them as viable accumulator bets. This post will list and and publish the profits or losses of these bets over the Month
First up is the “Earlybird Multisport Acca” which is available from 7am onwards Jan 1st 2023
Result
Earlybird Multisport Acca
Lost
14:00
Tottenham Tottenham v Aston Villa
👎
1.67
Won
15:50
Wrappedupinmay 3:50 Exeter
👍
1.33
Lost
18:00
PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles
👎
1.91
Won
18:00
DET Lions CHI Bears @ DET Lions
👍
1.42
Lost
08:15
Sydney Sixers Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers
👎
1.67
Won
09:00
Magda Linette to win 2 – 0 Magda Linette vs Zhibek Kulambayeva
👍
1.20
Available: 07:00 daily
This ACCA lost
Advised at 07:00 at odds of 12.02
Next Acca of the day is the Racing Each Way Lucky 15 which is available from 10am each day
Result
Each Way Lucky 15
Lost
14:16
Recorwoman 2:16 Southwell
👎
12.00
Lost
15:00
Maid Of Houxty 3:00 Catterick
👎
7.00
Lost
15:45
Thunder 3:45 Fairyhouse
👎
34.00
Lost
17:26
Brandy Station 5:26 Southwell
👎
12.00
Available: 10:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 10:00 at odds of 37128.00
A cheeky little racing Double is the next acca to be published and is supposed to be available to view from 11 am but today (1st Jan 2023) it appeared at 10:30 and was as follows
Result
Racing Double
Lost
13:20
Thunder Rock 1:20 Cheltenham
👎
2.75
Lost
15:00
Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick
👎
2.50
Available: 11:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 10:30 at odds of 6.86
The racing four fold is usually available at 12:00 so it could be a bit frantic to get the bets on if the first race is close to midday. OLBG comensate for this by publishing the acca early so its best to have notifications set to on and have the app downloaded to your phone. More on this at the end of todays post.
Result
Racing 4-Fold
Won
12:10
Weveallbeencaught 12:10 Cheltenham
👍
2.00
Lost
12:55
Annie Magic 12:55 Exeter
👎
2.20
Lost
13:20
Thunder Rock 1:20 Cheltenham
👎
2.75
Lost
15:00
Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick
👎
2.50
Available: 12:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 11:00 at odds of 28.89
13:00 brings us the daily Multisport Acca which is similar to the EarlyBird Multi Sport Acca
Result
Daily Multisport Acca
Won
15:56
Manaafith 3:56 Southwell
1.50
Lost
18:00
WAS Commanders CLE Browns @ WAS Commanders
1.75
Lost
18:00
PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles
1.95
Won
14:00
Monaco Monaco v Brest
1.45
Lost
14:00
Tottenham Tottenham v Aston Villa
1.67
Lost
15:00
Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick
2.75
Available: 13:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 13:00 at odds of 37.87
The popular Football four Fold is published at 13:30 at weekends and 17:00 on weekdays – here is todays
Result
Football 4-Fold
Lost
16:00
Lyon Lyon v Clermont Foot
1.53
Lost
16:30
Chelsea Nottm Forest v Chelsea
1.60
Won
15:00
Plymouth Plymouth v Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Won
15:00
Millwall Millwall v Rotherham
1.50
Available: 17:00 weekdays | 13:30 weekend
Lost
Advised at 13:30 at odds of 6.20
Result
US Sports Acca
Lost
21:05
SF 49ers -9.50 SF 49ers @ LV Raiders
1.91
Lost
18:00
WAS Commanders CLE Browns @ WAS Commanders
1.80
Lost
18:00
PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles
1.95
Won
18:00
MIA Dolphins +2.50 MIA Dolphins @ NE Patriots
2.05
Won
18:00
DET Lions CHI Bears @ DET Lions
1.44
Won
18:00
NY Giants IND Colts @ NY Giants
1.44
Available: 16:30 daily
Lost
Advised at 16:30 at odds of 28.50
Result
Evening Multisport Acca
Lost
21:05
SF 49ers -9.50 SF 49ers @ LV Raiders
1.91
Won
21:25
GB Packers MIN Vikings @ GB Packers
1.60
Lost
01:10
MIL Bucks WAS Wizards @ MIL Bucks
1.55
Won
01:10
MEM Grizzlies SAC Kings @ MEM Grizzlies
1.59
Lost
19:45
Draw or PSG Lens v PSG
1.33
Lost
19:45
Gerwyn Price Gerwyn Price vs Gabriel Clemens
1.80
Available: 18:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 18:00 at odds of 15.67
The outcome for the first day of the study is not a good one! None of the straight Accas came anywhere near and the lucky 15 did not even have a place
If we set our stake at £1.00 for accas and 10p e/w lucky 15 then we would be £10 down so far
I have been meaning to write this post for over a week after following Betfairs’ tipsters one evening on the football. Betfair proudly promoted their football tipsters under the banner “Thursday Football Cheat Sheet: All The Best Bets In One Place” Was this the best bets for them or the punters? What happened will shock you. On the 3rd of November Genk hosted West Ham and Betfair is quoted at saying “West Ham have won all three of their UEL games so far and are a decent bet to maintain that winning streak” Kevin Hatchard then goes on to to say that Genk has only won one of their last 4 home matches, he failed to mention the fact that they (Gent) were victorious over Rapid Vienna away who in turn went on to beat Dinamo Zagreb 2-1. I feel that these two bits of information should have been included in his write-up. He also hinted that a “Win to Nil” for a “Chunky” 3.85 was a sensible play but given the information above would make this financial suicide. Hatchard’s advised bet was “Back West Ham to win” at 2.08. With the information that he gave alone a more sensible bet of over 2.5 goals might have been more prudent. Final score 2-2
Next tipster given lip service by Betfair was Frank Monkhouse who in my opinion was actually trying to talk himself out of his advised bet of “Back Rangers at 1.95” when they travelled to Brondby. I quote “Rangers look shaky in defence and conceded the first goal at the weekend again” also “At Ibrox, Rangers struggled to beat the 10 men of Hibs, managed only a draw against Hearts after passing up several goalscoring opertunities, then battled back from two goals down to rescue a point against the Dons.” Does this really sound like a man who has confidence in a Rangers team? Perhaps not!! Final Score 1-1 with Brondby being on the score sheet first (Albeit from an own goal from Rangers ) From his write up Brondby scoring first might have been better advice!! Dan Finch was tasked with the Tottenham v Vitesse game in the UEFA Europa Conferance League that same evening and proceded to ramble on about the abilities of the new Spurs manager, Conte. An assumption that Conte would “likely switch to playing with 3 central defenders to help shore up a backline that has conceded in 11 of their last 12 games” was his total assertion that his advised bet of Tottenham to Win to Nil would come to fruition. He failed to mention one vital fact that Vitesse have scored in every single UEC game. Final score was 3-2 and a brief mention that over 2.5 goals was priced at 1.71 and a home win and over 2.5 goals increased this price to 1.95. Having spent just 3 minutes looking up Vitesse’s scoring ability I would never have backed a win to nil result at odds of 2.1
Kevin Hatchard was back in the limelight for the Leicester City game against Spartak Moscow and wile I agree with him that there was little value at backing Leicester to win at match odds of 1.33 he went on to say “we can boost that price to a much healthier 2.64if we back Leicester to win and both teams to score. Four of Leicester’s last 5 victories in ALL competitions have seen both teams find the net” What he failed to mention is that in the Europa League Leicester have achieved this just Twice. Having said this however this bet out of all the ones advised so far is the one with most credibility as one of these occasions was in fact the previous meeting of these two teams where Leicester won 3-2 in Moscow. Final score 1-1 In the final advised bet on the “cheat sheet” Dan Finch yet again rambled on about managers and not the teams ability to score or not as his advised bet of both teams to score in the Roma v Bodo/Glimt game should perhaps have included the fact that the Norwegian side are actually league leaders at home in the Eliteserien to give more weight to the advise given. This bet however was the only one to win at odds of 1.83 as the final score was 2-2
To summarise only 1 out of these 5 advised bets came in I feel that if more information had been forthcoming as to the actual relevancy of the individual advice three of these bets would have been discounted out of hand
Todays DOB of the day is Dragon Symbol running in the 14:00 at the Ascot meeting. Preferring to lead the race and with the advantage of Oisin Murphy on board today. Murphy has failed to win on Dragon Symbol from the past 5 rides last winning at Kempton on the All-Weather back in April. While the All Weather surface seems to suit Dragon Symbol better he has won or placed in all but 1 of his 10 previous races in a varied going conditions. The racing Press have Napped him twice and has is tipped by 2 others.
Dragon Symbols Form as laid out by The In-Running Trading Tool. Click Image to enlarge in a new tab
Dragon Symbol is currently available to Back at 9.6 on the exchange at Betfair which you would lay off at odds of 4.8 in running (dont forget to click the “Keep” button when laying the bet.) Forecast odds for Dragon Symbol range about the 5.5 mark (9/2) This is the best DOB selection of the day using my own criteria on the In-Running Trading Tool. To get your free trial of this very worthwhile trading software please click the link below
Betornot 