Racing Post – Betornot

Timeform 5* selections for 8th June 2024

Timeform is a respected and well followed source of racing form and they rate each horse for each race by using a star rating. You may have read my post on using this rating system to pick your horses for the ITV 7 well what if you were to back each 5 star rated horse in every race for a day.
Below is a PDF of the 5 star Runners for 8th June 2024 and how they faired. The figures are based upon the ISP (Industry Starting Price) and the stakes reflect a £5.00 profit should the horse win. It is worth noting that at least one of these selections (Billyb) was available at odds greater than the starting price as I actually backed it at odds of 4.50 at 11am that morning.

08-june-2024-timeform-5-star-selections Download

If you had backed each 5 star rated horse that ran on this day to a £1.00 level stake you would have got a profit of £3.87 which is a 10.18% ROI (Return on Investment)
If you had backed them as I do to a £5.00 target profit then you would have a £24.93 profit but the stakes involved are greater! My total stakes for all races would have been £117.94 for that £24.93 profit but it is still a 21% ROI
After a quick analysis of the results there were a total of 38 runners of which 15 won which is a 39.5% strike rate.
More interestingly is the fact that if you had backed the horses which ran in just the handicap races then of the 31 handicap races run 27 actuall ran of which 12 won.
This gave a profit of £12.41 to level £1.00 stakes giving a 46% ROI. Staking the horses to a £5.00 target profit gave a profit of £32.52 for a total of £58.79 stake money yielding a 55.3% ROI.
This is just 1 days analysis but it seems that it may be worth pursuing further.

timeforms-5-star-rated-horses Download

The above file can be downloaded so you can do your own analysis

More on this to come
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My ITV 7 8th June 2024 – The Results

7 races – 7 winners how hard can it be?
The criteria for this exercise in losing money is that I selected Timeforms 5 star runners and where these were non runners as in race 3 and 7 the next best 4 star runner with the lowest odds.

Race 1:
14:05 Beverley
Maw Lam backed at 3/1 for a stake of £1.67
Lost

Running P/L -£1.67

Race 2
14:15 Bangor on Dee
Can’t beat history backed at 4.5 for £1.42
Lost

Running P/L -£3.09

Race 3
14:25 Haydock
Divina Grace backed at 3.5 or £2.00
Lost

Running P/L -£5.09

Race 4
14:40 Beverley
Moving Force backed at 2.75 for £2.86
Lost

Odds moved slightly in my favour but still no return
Running P/L -£7.95

Race 5
15:00 Haydock
Sea Theme backed at 5.50 for a stake of £1.11
Lost

Running P/L -£9.06

Race 6
15:15 Beverley
Billyb backed at 4.5 for a stake of £1.43
Won 🤑

A rule 4 deduction reduced my profit from £5.00 to £4.75
Running P/L -£4.31

Race 7
15:35 Haydock
Ramazan backed at odds of 6.00 for a stake of £1.00
Lost

Total Loss for todays ITV 7 is £5.31

My ITV 7 8th June 2024

Today I have backed each of my ITV 7 selections at available odds for a target profit of £5.00 for each winner. Each selection is timeform’s 5 star rated horse for that race
The first one is Maw Lam in the 14:05 at Beverley

Backed for a Stake of £1.67 at odds of 4.0

Next is Can’t Beat History in the 14:15 at Bangor-on-Dee

Backed for a stake of £1.42 at odds of 4.50 This I have backed with Coral as they are offering BOG on all of their races today

Number 3 on the list is Divina Grace in the 14:25 at Haydock.

This I have backed for a £2.00 stake at odds of 3.50

Fourth is at Beverley in the 14:40 with only 5 runners going to post at the time of writing the 5 star selection is Moving Force.

This is the shortest price of the 7 selections and is backed at 2.75 for £2.86

Race 5 is the 15:00 at Haydock 13 runners

Stake is £1.11 at odds of 5.50

6th on the ITV7 card is 15 minutes later in the 15:15 at Beverley with 14 runners going to post

£1.43 at odds of 4.50 would see a return of £6.44 giving a profit of £5.00 if the odds don’t drift.

The last to go on the card today is Ramazan in the 15:35 at Haydock an 11 runner stakes race.

I booboo’d on this one and had to put an extra 17p onto this to make the stake up to £1.00 at odds of 6.00

My total stake for this “event” is £11.49

ITV 7 and Timeform’s 5 Star Ratings

While sat waiting for yet another customer to come and unload their meat I quickly did the ITV 7 on Wednesday 5th of June.
My criteria was simple – I just selected the 7 horses that Timeform rated with 5 stars. Not rocket science but nothing to lose.
I had 2 winners from the 7 – this equates to a 28.5% strike rate.
I then got to thinking what if I had backed these 7 selections individually for a target profit of £5.00 so I did the maths
If I had backed these at S.P. my total stake would have been £13.16. With 2 winners both yielding £5.00 each in profit (not returns) I would have come out with a £2.81 overall profit

Hugh Taylors Selections 7th June – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections

Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.

Yesterday Hugh had 2 selections, both at Thirsk and the first was a non runner. Miss Bodacious was tipped to win the 3:38 but was withdrawn
The second Lord Abama ran in the 4:40 and was advised at 11/2 (6.5)
I backed it late with a stake of £1.81 at S.P. to win £5.00 at the available odds 11/4 (3.75)
My Profit for the month before this bet stood at £11.30
Lord Abama won at an S.P. of 4/1 (5.0)

This gave me an additional profit of £2.24 over my £5.00 target figure

My total profit for the month now stands at £18.54

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 4th June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

With a profit down to £5.01 today just 1 selection was tipped

Willowbank ran in the 8:15 at Lingfield last night

Profit is Plummeting and now stands at £3.78 for the month

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 3rd June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors 3 selections at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

With a profit of £8.61 today saw 3 selections run

First to run was Gutsy Girl which was advised at odds of 4/1 (5.0) I backed it at 11:45 at S.P but the odds available then was 5/2 (3.5)
Unfortunately it could only manage 3rd place.

Profit is Plummeting and the next to run was Valkyrian in the 8:45 at Windsor Advised at Publication at 16/1 (17.0)
Stake was 67p at S.P. as available odds had halved to 15/2 (8.5)
S.P. Odds recovered to 12/1 (13.0) which would have been nice if it had won instead of coming 7th

With another 67p knocked off the profit the last runner on Hughs list was Coin Power. Advised at odds of 10/1 (11.0) by the time I got my 91p on at 11:45 the odds had dropped to 11/2 (6.5)
By Post time the S.P. was 7/1 so again disappointing not to have surpassed advised odds but had it of won instead of coming 8th then I would have a profit of £6.37 instead of my target fiver.

Numerous people have now pointed out to me that S.P. is a poor bet and I agree but in all of the runners so far this month all have been above the odds available at the time the bet was struck so that with any other bookie than SkyBet Best Odds Guaranteed would have been applicable and instead of backing at S.P. I would have taken the offered odds for my Guaranteed fiver if it won.
The sole purpose of this study if you like is to try and make people see that, yes the bookies decimate the odds to capitalize on the faithful which to my mind is despicable, but the odds can and do recover sometimes to a mark greater than the advised price at publication time.
Its a good job Hugh had a couple of winners Saturday because my Profit is now down to £5.03

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 2nd June – The Results

Today I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

Todays Selection was Cargin Bhui which ran at Hamilton this evening.
Advised odds were 11/4 but just 1 hour later those odds had been cut to 2/1
Working to a profit of £5.00 per winner I staked £2.50 to Win at S.P. in the hope that the odds drifted towards post time
A very close 2nd place has reduced my June Profit to £8.61

S.P. as you can see was 3/1
Another selection where S.P. was greater than the advised odds 👍

Hugh Taylor – Dont be in a Rush To Back His Selections 1st June – The Results

Yesterday I backed all four of Hugh Taylors ATR racing tips but instead of clamoring to get my money on before the odds disappeared I simply backed them at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

First in the List was Sea of Thieves in the 2:00 at Epsom Downs at an advised price at publication of 14/1. This was published at 9:11 and by 10:30 the odds were 9/1. I backed this at S.P. for 56p which would have given me £5.00 profit if the odds stayed at 9/1 or a bonus amount if the odds drifted and by some miracle the horse won.

As you can see from the settled bet that the price did drift, not to the advised price but close and if it had won would have given a profit of £6.72 instead of the £5.00 at the 9/1 price.

Second to run was Billy Webster in the 3:10 again at Epsom. Published at 9:24 at advised odds of 10/1. I again backed this at S.P. for a stake of 83p as the odds available at 10:30 were down to 6/1

The calculation for these bets is simple Target profit / Decimal odds -1
£5.00 / (7.00 – 1)

By Post Time the odds had drifted to 14/1 which would have given a profit of £11.62 if it had won.

Taylors next selection to run was also at Epsom and he tipped Relentless Voyager in the 5:15 at an advised price of 13/2 (7.5) at the publication time of 9:03. By 10:30 these odds had sunk to 4/1 or 5.0 in decimal. Backed at S.P. for a stake of £1.00 to reap a £5.00 profit if the odds didn’t sink further.

As you can see the odds drifted out to 7/1 (8.0) at post time and the horse won giving a profit of £7.00 instead of the £5.00 target figure.

Taylors fourth and final runner was at Doncaster in the 6:15 and was published on the ATR website at 09:39. Wild Waves price was advised at 9/2 (5.50) at this time and an hour later was a mere 5/2 (3.50) on Sky Bet. Backed at S.P. for a £2.00 stake my target profit if the odds didn’t dip below this price and if the horse won would again be £5.00

As you can see from my settled bet slip This horse also won at 11/4 (3.75) and while the odds didn’t reach those of the advised price by a long chalk they did drift slightly from the 3.50 giving me a profit of £5.50

My Total profit from these four bets ended up at £11.11 from a total of £4.39 staked! Better than being poked in the eye with a sharp stick I think.

I know that if I had used another bookmaker that offered BOG then I would have had guaranteed odds and could have taken the price offered without fear of the odds dipping some more. As it is if I had taken the prices offered by SkyBet at the time of striking the bets then my profit would have been £8.61 – £2.50 less than my actual profit.
If you had used the same staking method AND had been able to get the ADVISED prices then the profit would have been as follows

Sea of Thieves Advised odds 15.00
Stake 36p
Lost P/L -36p
Billy Webster Advised odds 11.00
Stake 50p
Lost P/L -50p
Relentless Voyager Advised odds 7.5
Stake 77p
Won P/L £5.01
Wild Waves Advised odds 5.5
stake £1.11
Won P/L 4.99

Total P/L £9.14

ITV7 Monday

I just picked my seven winners for @itv7. Don’t miss your free chance to win the jackpot #ITV7 https://itv7.itv.com/play

Through the card at Kempton tonight 👍👍👍