7 races – 7 winners how hard can it be? The criteria for this exercise in losing money is that I selected Timeforms 5 star runners and where these were non runners as in race 3 and 7 the next best 4 star runner with the lowest odds.
Race 1: 14:05 Beverley Maw Lam backed at 3/1 for a stake of £1.67 Lost
Running P/L -£1.67
Race 2 14:15 Bangor on Dee Can’t beat history backed at 4.5 for £1.42 Lost
Running P/L -£3.09
Race 3 14:25 Haydock Divina Grace backed at 3.5 or £2.00 Lost
Running P/L -£5.09
Race 4 14:40 Beverley Moving Force backed at 2.75 for £2.86 Lost
Odds moved slightly in my favour but still no return Running P/L -£7.95
Race 5 15:00 Haydock Sea Theme backed at 5.50 for a stake of £1.11 Lost
Running P/L -£9.06
Race 6 15:15 Beverley Billyb backed at 4.5 for a stake of £1.43 Won 🤑
A rule 4 deduction reduced my profit from £5.00 to £4.75 Running P/L -£4.31
Race 7 15:35 Haydock Ramazan backed at odds of 6.00 for a stake of £1.00 Lost
Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Yesterday Hugh had 2 selections, both at Thirsk and the first was a non runner. Miss Bodacious was tipped to win the 3:38 but was withdrawn The second Lord Abama ran in the 4:40 and was advised at 11/2 (6.5) I backed it late with a stake of £1.81 at S.P. to win £5.00 at the available odds 11/4 (3.75) My Profit for the month before this bet stood at £11.30 Lord Abama won at an S.P. of 4/1 (5.0)
This gave me an additional profit of £2.24 over my £5.00 target figure
My total profit for the month now stands at £18.54
Yesterday I backed 3 ofHugh Taylors four selections at S.P. (one was a non-runner). Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)
£3.78 was my profit before these bets went on and with the stakes used they took me into a loss before they ran.
First to run was Phoenix Passion in the 16:27 at Nottingham and It actually won!!
Backed with a stake 0f £3.07 at S.P. for a target profit of £5.00 at equivalent odds of 13/8 the S.P was in fact 11/5 giving an actual profit of £6.75, £1.75 more than if I had just backed it at the available odds at the time.
Second to run was Remaat backed at odds of 3/1 as SkyBet operated a BOG policy with this race.
Remaat came a close second as as you can see from the bet settlement the odds drifted out significantly to 15/2 at post time.
Third and Final runner was Miss Kubelik who in actual fact didnt even place but went off at odds of 5/1 (6.00) this was greater than the advised odds
So after a good win and 2 also rans my profit now stands at £7.36.
Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Four selections today and going into the 5th day with a profit of £3.78 First selection to run today is
4:27 Nottingham : Phoenix Passion Advised Odds 5/2 (3.5) Odds available at 10:00 : 13/8 (2.63) Stake £3.07 Result –
Second to run is
5:35 Kempton : Remaat Advised Odds 11/1 (12.0) Odds available at 10:00 : 3/1 (4.0) Stake £1.67 Result –
Odds of 3/1 taken as SkyBet are offering Best Odds Guaranteed
The third Selection was City House in 7:15 at Kempton but has been withdrawn and is a non-runner.
Fourth and Final Selection today is 7:45 Kempton : Miss Kubelik Advised Odds 9/2 (5.5) Odds available at 10.00 10/3 (4.33) Stake £1.50 Result –
Good Luck all – need it – these bets take me into a Loss state 😂
Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Only one selection today and is as Follows
Lingfield 8:15 Advised Odds 9/1 (10.0) Odds available at 09:30 : 4/1 (5.0) Stake 1.25 Result –
Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Only one selection today and is as Follows
6:10 Hamilton Cargin Bhui Advised Odds 11/4 (3.75) Odds available at 10:30 : 2/1 (3.0) Stake 2.50 Result –
Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.
Todays Selections are as follows
2.00 Epsom Downs : Sea of Thieves Advised Odds 14/1 Odds available at 10:30 : 9/1 Stake 56p Result –
3.10 Epsom Downs : Billy Webster Advised Odds 10/1 Odds available at 10:30 6/1 Stake 83p Result –
5.15 Epsom Downs : Relentless Voyager Advised Odds 13/2 Odds available at 10:30 4/1 Stake £1.25 Result
6.15 Doncaster : Wild Waves Advised Odds 9/2 Odds available at 10:30 5/2 Stake £2.00 Result –
In this post I am going to examine using the National Press top tips that can be found on the Horseracing.net website (https://www.horseracing.net/tips) with the “Back to Lay” page of the “In-Running Trading Tool” The limitations of the trading tool means that I can only look with 20-20 hindsight at yesterday’s results and these are the findings. I have set up the trading tool to show only horses that have the following characters DOB % >= 50% Runstyle 1 & 2 % >= 75% Win % >= 20% These are the recommended basic settings as laid out by the user guide for the site. This gave me this screen
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The Racing Press top ten tipped horses from yesterday were 15:05 Ascot; Love is Golden 15:20 Newcastle; Brazen Bolt 15:30 Haydock; Thebeautifulgame 16:55 Newcastle; Dusky Lord 17:30 Pontefract; Kit Gabriel 18;00 Pontefract; Six Strings 18:30 Pontefract; Bookmark 18:45 Kempton; Altraif 19:15 Kempton; Jumbly 19:30 Pontefract; Ventura Express Of these 10 only 2 appear in the Back to Lay list Love is Golden amd Jumbly Love is Golden, according to the In-Running Trading Tool had a forecast S.P. of 2.50 and has a 30% win percentage (3/10). An average in running tick drop of 92. A new jockey in the form of Silvestre de Sousa is on board. By clicking on the little arrow next to the time and date of the race on the In-Running Trading Tool we can expand all the previous races for Love is Golden as shown below:
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We can see from this that the only 2 times Love is Golden only traded less than 20 ticks was when the going was good to firm having its best results on good to soft or soft going. The going at Ascot yesterday was Good. The distance is the same as its last 6 times out at 1m4f. With a “DOB” rate of just 70% this is outside the parameters of trying to double our money but it would seem that a back to lay tick drop of 15 ticks is not beyond the bounds of reality. In actual fact I backed this 20 mins before the race off time at odds of 2.86 and laid it off at 15 ticks at odds of 2.56 this price got matched about 3 minutes before the off giving me a profit of £1.17 before the starting stalls were even loaded
Back Bet
Lay bet
The actual B.S.P. was 2.34 and the in-play low traded at 1.55 giving a 62 tick drop in running. The horse finished 4th out of 5 A successful Trade! Second and final horse on the list was Jumbly running at Kempton on the all-weather. Having just one run and winning at Leicester in July there are not a lot of stats to go off but a short price forecast of 1.57 in a field of just 4 runners would make the in-running odds of 1.42 using a 15 tick drop benchmark Having looked at this race in July and determined that it took the lead and was pulling away in the final furlong, this trip of 7 furlongs would seem a prime candidate to Back to Lay just in case it ran out of steam. With an Actual B.S.P. of 1.66 Jumbly went on to win by 3.75 lengths You cannot “DOB” a horse at odds of less than 2.0 but an S.P. of 1.66 would trade out at 1.51 after a 15 tick drop giving a guaranteed profit of 92p from a £10.00 Bet Just a note to the cynical trading at 15 ticks may not pay much profit wise but as Love Is Golden demonstates beautifully that a short-priced favourite is far from a certainty!!
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To easily determine the odds needed to achieve a 15, 20, or 30 tick drop please use my Betfair Tick Counter Spreadsheet available to download below. It also gives the lay stake needed and any potential profit.
Betornot 