Tag Archives: Tennis Trading

Tennis Trading No 5 Dutching the Set Betting Market

With Wimbledon just around the corner I thought it might be interesting to explore the possibility of dutching the set betting market for the WTA as there is only 4 possible outcomes and using betangel’s dutching tool I can place orders into the market to ensure a 20% or better return on a £10 total stake.
The french Open is currently at the 4th round stage in the WTA competition and there are just 4 matches today (Sunday 4th June 2023)
The risk to reward on this is quite high depending on the odds offered. anything from a 50% risk up to a mighty 80% risk.
In this exercise I will be placing the margin stake onto the favourites 2-0 score
Match 1 Pavlyuchenkova v Mertens
This is an evenly matched match where both players are at around even money to win the match.
The screen shot below shows the bets placed

As you can see I have put the margin stake onto Mertens 2-0 scoreline at odds of 11
This is a massive risk to reward scenario as I am risking nearly 89% of my £10.00 stake for a 25% return. One of the factors that has helped me make this decision is that I have downloaded all the results from the previous 3 WTA French Opens into a spreadsheet and filtered the results into following criteria.
1. Winners price at the start of the match is between 1.90 and 2.10
2. 2-0 set result
3. 4th round matches only
Having filtered these factors the resulting percentage of matches that ended 2-0 are just 3 from a total of 24 4th round matches – just 12.5%
If we drill this down even further to include ALL matches that ended 2-0 where the winners odds were between 1.9 and 2.1 we find that from 381 WTA French Open matches that have been played in the previous 3 years there was just 20 that is just over 5%
What we also have to remember is that we are only interested in the odds selected for movement only need to move so far in order to be matched. In close matches such as this a first set score of 5-5 could be enough to convince the market that the match could go to 3 sets.

As I said there are four 4th round matches today and the next one is between Muchiva and El Avanesyan
Muchova is odds on favourite to win at odds of 1.27

In this dutching trade I am risking 53% of my stake for a 25% return
While the risk to reward is much less than the previous match if we look at the spreadsheet and input the same figures in relation to this match ie where the Winning favourite was between 1.25 and 1.3 there was just 1 (one) match in the fourth round that ended 2-0 and just 21 out of all 381 French Open Matches from the previous 3 years.

The 3rd match of the day is between Svitolina and Kasatkina. Kasatkina is favourite at odds of 1.66 to win the match

The final match today is Stephens v Sabalenka where Sabalenka is 1.25 to win the match

With all dutch trades in place I will post the logs and final tally tomorrow
My Maximum loss for these four trades should they all lose is £27.39 out of £40.00
My Maximum Profit is £10.17
This signifies a 37% reward to risk factor but considering the very basic research I explored I am hopeful for a 75% strike rate

Trading a Tennis Match

With the Madrid open starting this weekend I watched a couple of YouTube videos on trading tennis and was astonished to learn that Betfairs’ tennis markets regularly trade in 5 or 6 figure turnovers. One of the contributing factors of this is the fact that because the game can swing dramatically from one player to the other the odds swing with the markets can move considerately. For instance a lay bet of £20.00 on the favourite who’s odds are perhaps 1.35 at the start of the set will only have a liability of £7.00. If the other player then serves first and wins the first game then the odds of the favourite could well swing up to 1.5 and a back bet of £18.00 at those odds would see you making a profit of around £2.00 – a better than 25% return on your investment. If on the other hand the game goes the other way and the favourite wins the first game then the odds might swing down to perhaps 1.25. A back bet of £17.00 at 1.25 would only leave you with a loss of £2.95 if the favourite went on to win but a £2.94 profit if he/she was to go on to lose.
With this in mind I placed a lay bet of £20.00 this morning on Aslan Karatsev at odds of 1.36 giving me a liability of £7.20.

With an hour to go before the first serve I can already trade out for 14p

20 minutes later the odds have reverted back to 1.36 and £20,000 more have been matched. I feel that I have perhaps jumped into this too soon as I dont know who will serve first So will cash out for no loss or profit and wait until they come out on court.

I have to admit to knowing absolutley nothing about tennis and even less about these two players but just some prelimianary research shows that Ugo Humbert is ranked 32nd in the ATP singles rankings and Aslan Karatsev 27th. The void in-between these two players odds, considering their closeness in the rankings suggests that Karatsev is on fire at the present time and a look at his form shows that he won 3 of his last 4 games in Belgrade kncking out Djokovic 2 sets to one.
The match is now underway and Humbert served first winning the first game to 15 giving me a cashout of about 90p