Tuesdays pick has drawn a Midfielder from Aston Villa. Douglas Luiz hasnt scored a goal all season but I have high hopes that he will beat his last seasons total of 3 in this game against Crystal Palace 🤞🤞🤞🤞 He has 30 appearances to his name this season and manages an average of just 0.3 shots on target per game. His discipline record is not good with 9 yellows and a red this season in the premier league and averages nearly 2 fouls per match. Villa are away at Crystal Palace on Sunday at 12:00 and have conceded at least 1 goal in their last 8 games (Home and Away) In their last meeting at Villa Park they beat Palace 3-0 back in December. Perhaps both teams will score this time but backing Luiz to score one of them is not on my “Bucket List”
Morning all I have drawn a promising start this week with Spurs Striker Harry Kane. Spurs are playing Wolves on Sunday in the early afternoon fixture. With 32 appearances this season in the Premier League and 21 goals he averages 4 shots per game with 1.5 average on target. The fixture at Molyneux ended 1-1 with Kane not scoring nor assisting. There are bound to be some tasty morsels offered up by the bookies this weekend With only 1 yellow card to his name this season putting an “under” card bet and shots on target on to a bet builder bet might be worth a punt however there are no player markets formed yet on Betfair Sportsbook.
With the Madrid open starting this weekend I watched a couple of YouTube videos on trading tennis and was astonished to learn that Betfairs’ tennis markets regularly trade in 5 or 6 figure turnovers. One of the contributing factors of this is the fact that because the game can swing dramatically from one player to the other the odds swing with the markets can move considerately. For instance a lay bet of £20.00 on the favourite who’s odds are perhaps 1.35 at the start of the set will only have a liability of £7.00. If the other player then serves first and wins the first game then the odds of the favourite could well swing up to 1.5 and a back bet of £18.00 at those odds would see you making a profit of around £2.00 – a better than 25% return on your investment. If on the other hand the game goes the other way and the favourite wins the first game then the odds might swing down to perhaps 1.25. A back bet of £17.00 at 1.25 would only leave you with a loss of £2.95 if the favourite went on to win but a £2.94 profit if he/she was to go on to lose. With this in mind I placed a lay bet of £20.00 this morning on Aslan Karatsev at odds of 1.36 giving me a liability of £7.20.
With an hour to go before the first serve I can already trade out for 14p
20 minutes later the odds have reverted back to 1.36 and £20,000 more have been matched. I feel that I have perhaps jumped into this too soon as I dont know who will serve first So will cash out for no loss or profit and wait until they come out on court.
I have to admit to knowing absolutley nothing about tennis and even less about these two players but just some prelimianary research shows that Ugo Humbert is ranked 32nd in the ATP singles rankings and Aslan Karatsev 27th. The void in-between these two players odds, considering their closeness in the rankings suggests that Karatsev is on fire at the present time and a look at his form shows that he won 3 of his last 4 games in Belgrade kncking out Djokovic 2 sets to one. The match is now underway and Humbert served first winning the first game to 15 giving me a cashout of about 90p
The Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week is Bournemouth, Chelsea, and Leeds all to win Boosted from 7.0 to 10.0 The first match on the treble is a Championship clash between Hosts Bottom of the league Wycombe Wanderers and 4th placed Bournemouth. In form, Bournemouth have won all of their last 4 away games and 7 of their last league games only losing to Brentford at home last week. With Swansea and Barnsley both on level points with Bournemouth, Bournemouth need to win today to keep the others from stealing that all-important play-off spot. Wycombe have shown that even though they are flat bottom of the league they still have the ability when playing teams at the top of the league drawing against both Swansea and Watford at home. Generally, though they lose and by 2 goals when they do. The last time these two teams met Bournemouth won 1-0, and they have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 away matches. Bournemouth need to win!
Chelsea are hosting Fulham this evening and have a mixed bag of results at home having goalless draws against Manchester Utd and Brighton and a dreadful drubbing of 2-5 by West Bromwich Albion. with their only victory in the last 4 home games being against Everton which ended 2-0. Although I have said that if bookmakers put Fulham into a boosted Acca you should avoid it like the Chinese Bat Flu they have come out and Drawn against Arsenal and Crystal Palace, beaten Liverpool 0-1 and lost just one against Aston Villa in their last 4 away games. That said, Fulham have never beaten Chelsea and their last 2 trips to Stamford Bridge have both ended 2-0. Chelsea are hanging onto that last Champions League 4th place spot precariously, but aided by Leicester’s 1-1 draw against Southampton last night. A win this evening would still see them in 4th place but keeping that all-important 3 point buffer between them and West Ham. Chelsea Need To Win!
Leeds Utd travel to Brighton today in a game which is of vital importance to the hosts. Only 7 points separate Brighton from Fulham and a win for Brighton today would see them a little closer to safety. Leeds Utd have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 away games and conceding goals in all of them. Their form over the last 8 games played has seen them win just 3 times drawn 3 times (twice Goalless) and losing to West Ham and Villa. Brighton’s Home record doesn’t read much better winning one drawing goalless against Everton and losing against Leicester and Crystal Palace. They have only beaten Southampton and Newcastle in their last 8 league games As with every Soccer Saturday Price Boost, SkyBet offer 3 outcomes and this week they have offered this last game as the alternate options Option 1 Bournemouth, Chelsea & Leeds all to win (was 6/1) Boosted to 9/1 Option 2 Bournemouth & Chelsea to win & Brighton to draw with Leeds (was 6/1) Boosted to 9/1 Option 3 Bournemouth, Chelsea & Brighton all to win (was 4/1) Boosted to 6/1 My final £5.00 goes on Option 1 £2.00 Option 2 £2.00 Option 3 £1.00
Australian A League has become a bit of an obsession of late and today Melbourne City Hosted Newcastle United Jets. 17 minutes into the game and the odds finally reached 2.0 and I stuck my fiver on it. Newcastle, again, scored at the wrong end and 2 more Melbourne goals and 87 minutes Newcastle decided it was time to score in the right goal A win is a win 😁
Punchestown day 2 and SkyBet are again paying 7 places and have boosted “The Great White” to 2.1 to place It is currently 2nd Fav at 7.5 to win Yesterdays similar bet won so why not try it again. To quote Sporting Life ” THE GREAT WHITE was beaten a long way behind Low Lie The Fields here in January but it was a different matter at Limerick last week where he was impressive. He’s up 11lb but still on a lowly mark and a quick double beckons.”
The Punchestown Festival gets underway today and as SkyBet seem to want to give money away on their boosted bets of late I thought it rude not to take them up on one of their boosts in the 15:40 where they are paying out on 7 places instead of 4 if there are 18 or more runners. The boost is Scholastic placing at odds of 2.0 This is entirely an impulse bet and can’t do any worse than that damned Melbourne team not even being able to score in the second half earlier!!!
Week 6 was infinitely better than week 5 with a clean sheet as far as the qualifying bets go Bet 1 Was Leeds v Liverpool on Monday 19th April and was BTTS “Yes” placed In-Play 22 minutes into the game at odds of 2.0 – Won £5.00 Bet 2 was a “Half Time/ Full Time” Bet in the Aston Villa v Man City game which again was placed at 2.0 on “Away/Away” which also won £5.00 Bet 3 was a SkyBet Special where they boosted Mo Salah to have 1+ shots on Target from 1/8 to Evens) – he scored in 3 minutes flat – Another fiver> Bet 4 was tense. The Soccer Saturday Price Boost featured Watford, Barnsley, and Norwich all to win boosted from 5.0 to 7.0. Barnsley held on after scoring after 2 minutes right up until 98th minute where Rotherham had an unprecedented 16 shots of which 7 were on target. Never has my finger hovered over the cash out button as much 😰😱 My nerve however held and paid off with a £30.00 Profit Bet 5 went back to good old nearly reliable BTTS “Yes” in the Reading v Swansea game getting 11/10 (2.1) making me another £5.50 This gave me a total Profit on the week as £50.50 On Sunday I stuck £5.00 on to get a matched free bet on the Man City v Spurs game just before half time at odds of 4.0 (3/1) and as everyone knows Tottenham failed to turn up to the game – £5.00 loss but an extra £5.00 free bet Bet 1 it should be noted was a “Game of two halves” where SkyBet will give a £5.00 fre bet if you bet £5.00 cash in-play So in summary £15.00 in free bets added this week and a Total profit of £45.50 for the week making a campaign total profit of £32.22 when I take previous losses into account.
For those of you who are just joining this series of bets I am placing 5 bets per week of £5.00 with SkyBet at odds of 2.0(evens) or better to earn a £5.00 free bet each week to use in next years Cheltenham festival. I already have £75.00 and this is just the start of week 7. Bet No 1 this week is an In-Play bet of £5.00 at odds of 2.2 in the Sydney v Melbourne Victory game this morning. Sydney scored first in 6 minutes but there was no other score upto half time. Melbourne have had 2 shots on target so far and time is running out. With luck they will net the ball in the second half. With the exception of the Melbourne City game they have scored in the other 3 of the last 4 away games as they have scored their most away goals in the second half in the last 15 minutes of the game.
Back to Australia this morning and its Newcastle Jets being Hosted by Western Utd BTTS “Yes” will be the bet and Newcastle have already scored but it was in their own goal after 12 minutes (Bit clumsy that) So after 56 minutes the odds have reached 1.95 just a couple more minutes …… After 60 minutes the odds have reached 2.10 so stuck my quid on Newcastle now have 30 minutes to score at the correct end !! They have scored in 7 out of their last 8 games and have scored in all of their last 4 away games – confidence is high.
Betornot 