Author Archives: shakey775

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Freebet Week 3 summary

The week started badly with a trip to Wolverhampton and Lovely Breeze in the 18:30 which was boosted to 2.88. Managing only 6th place this left me £5.00 down. Not to be deterred I again went racing on Tuesday and split my fiver into an E/W bet on Finisk River in the 14:35 at Newcastle where a 4th place was close but no cigar forthcoming! £10.00 Down.
Staying in the north of England for Wednesdays bet I played what I thought was a in-play blinder backing over 2.5 goals 7 minutes into the Carlisle v Crawley match. With the game 2-0 at half time I began to count my winnings only for all hopes to be dashed as yellow cards came out instead of goals going in!! £15.00 down – this is getting depressing!!!
Bet 4 had to be a wembley affair and after careful planning nearly missed my opportunity as I only just got my Over 2.5 Goals bet on 1 minute before Kane scored from the spot. With 2 more goals being scored earned me a £6.88 profit bringing my total loss upto £8.12.
My last bet of the week plunged me more into despair as Absolutely No Goals were scored in the first half of the Leicester v Man City game making my Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half bet a loser.
Total Loss for the week is £13.12 with my Total loss for weeks 2-3 £11.24
On the Brightside though I will have £30 in free bets for Next years Cheltenham when this weeks bet is credited on Monday.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 3 bet 5

Finally finished my deck in the garden yesterday but as a consequence of a late finish missed most of yesterdays football, I didnt even see a Soccer Saturday Price Boost perhaps that was on Friday. However SkyBet offered odds of 2.75 for over 1.5 goals in the 1st half in the Leicester v Man City game. After some hasty research concluded that this bet was worth the risk for the following reasons
Manchester City when playing away have scored 53% of their goals in the 1st half and Leicester City have conceded 54% of goals in the 1st half when at home. The Over 1.5 goals market in Leicester City’s home games has been settled 8 times this season before the half time whistle. This from 14 home games played.
A deeper look into half time goals sees that Man City on average score 1.07 goals in the 1st 45 minutes and Leicester 0.8 giving an overall average of 1.87. This, however, is only the half of it and I am perhaps guilty of making the stats fit to my bet because if we look at conceded goals Leicester only concede an average of .67 and Man City 0.20.
There was a bit of a bonus to this though, as SkyBet offered a matched free bet up to £5.00 for this game. I have gained 2 more £5.00 free bets this week bringing my total towards next years Cheltenham up to £30.00 when my weekly free bet gets credited by Monday night.

 

Paddy Powers’ “Beat The Drop” Question 2

Almost forgot all about this “freebie” and decided to have a look at the questions to see if any were jumping from the screen.
In the English League 1 tonight Sunderland host Oxford Utd and there were 2 questions for this game
“Will both Teams score?” and “Will Sunderland Win the Match?”
As you can see from the screen shot I decided to go all in against the win.
Lets take a look at the first question – without odds and assuming both teams are of equal ability.
To answer Yes to both teams to score and win Both teams need to score! but if you answer No many other outcomes win. A win to nil for either team will win it or a 0-0 draw but as soon as both team score its all over
If you Answer Yes to the second question Sunderland have to win! If you answer No then the match can end in a draw or an Oxford win both teams can score or not score it makes no difference.
So with 2 outcomes as opposed to 1 the win/lose question would probably be the favoured yes/no.
Now I come to the reasons
Oxford are chasing the promotion play-off placings and only 2 points behind 6th place Gillingham with 2 games in hand. With only Gillingham and Sunderland to play this season that are above them in the table a win or draw would be a tremendous boost to both morale and placings. When playing away Oxford have gained 25 points from 19 games. Oxford have won or drawn 11 away games whilst losing 8.
Sunderlands’ home record when playing matches against teams who are 5 places above and 5 places below, have won just 2 of these, Ipswich 2-1 and Doncaster 4-1. They have lost against M.K. Dons 1-2 and Portsmouth 1-3. Lincoln and Gillingham ended as draws. These being the cons for Sunderland it would not be fair to exclude their pros for winning this game. They are 3 points behind Hull City at the top with 2 games in hand. They have scored in 94% of their home games and scored first 72%.

Just a final pointer
Of the last 5 meetings of these two teams 3 games ended in a draw and the 2 times Sunderland were at home the score was 1-1!

 

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 3 Bet 3

Bet 3 was a spur of the moment sort of thing while I was running through the in-play games last night ad League two’s match between Carlisle and Crawley
7 minutes in and over 2.5 goals odds were 2.2 so I put my fiver on it
When they scored 10 minutes later and again before half time my hopes were obviously high
Just a shame no one came out to play in the second half 😴😴🤣
I will win one of these !!!!

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 3 Bet 2

Todays bet goes to an E/W hopeful in the shape of Finisk River in the 14:35 at Newcastle over 2 1/2 miles in a Handicap Hurdle. With a 75% place rate and whilst having come last of 5 last time out over 2m on heavy ground, has won twice at Cartmel this season and the Good going at Newcastle should suit.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 3 Bet 1

Bit late in the day today but I have been busy preparing the top of my garden for a new deck and as a consequence haven’t been able to research any football bets today. The start of the new flat racing season began officially this weekend and with pretty unpredictable football games happening this week I have had a look at Wolverhamton this evening and a boosted favourite in the 18:50 has taken my eye.
Lovely Breeze has been tipped by 4 tipsters with the racing post. Last 3 outings have produced 2 placings and a win. Timeforms forcast of a strong pace shouldn’t hamper her much as she likes to be prominent in the running.
This will be my first fiver on this week for my next free bet. the boosted odds at the time of placing were 2.88 so should have a bit to play with though the week.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Freebet No 2 Week 2 Summary

A couple of ups and downs this week and a lucky 2nd place saw a slight profit this week in my quest for a £5.00 free bet
Bet 1 was struck on Monday with an over 2.5 goals punt on a game that should have yielded about 4 which left me £5.00 down.
Bet 1 Blog here
Bet 2 on Tuesday was an exact opposite of Under 2.5 goals which had me in palpitations as France scored an own goal but ended well with £5.00 up and even over all.
Bet 2 Blog Here
Bet 3 took a trip to the races and tried to take advantage of the skybet offer of cashback if 2nd or 3rd Goodnight Charlie was pipped at the post into 2nd which after cash back still left me Even over the week.
Bet 3 Blog Here
Bet 4 This week went back to football and the Castellon v Espanyol game and an over 2.5 goals bet which won giving £6.88 Profit and the same over the week
Bet 4 Blog Here
Bet 5 each week will be the Soccer Saturday Price Boost which of course lost leaving me in profit over the week of £1.88 and a £5.00 Free Bet
Bet 5 Blog Here

Follow me on twitter or facebook of just follow my blog each day to find out my fortunes this year.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Free bet No 7 Week 2

With only £5.00 left to wager to get my next free bet, SkyBet’s Soccer Saturday Price Boost (As always on a Saturday) jumped to the fore on my computer sceen this morning offering a boosted treble of the top 3 sides in league one to win from 4/1 to 6/1. Any treble of 4/1 or less is worth looking at and as I had just analyzed Ladbrokes Saturday Treble (Read it here) and it contained two of the selections in this treble two-thirds of the research was already done. My apologies to anyone who has already read the Ladbrokes dissection as I am simply copying what I blogged earlier for the Sunderland and Peterborough games.

Sunderland are currently 3rd in the league with 2 games in hand to league leaders Hull and one game in hand to second place Peterborough. Form from the last 8 games suggest that Sunderland are on fire gaining a total of 20 points from these games. Bristol Rovers are hosting this match and Sunderlands form from the last 4 aways put 10 points on the board. Bristol need a win today just to keep from swirling into the relegation zone. This does not look likely as they have lost over half (56%) of their home games, 2 of them to the top two sides in the league by a 2 goal margin in both games. In the 5 times that Sunderland and Bristol have played Sunderland has won 3 of those matches. Their last game ended 1-1 last September.

League leaders Hull are at home to Gillingham who are looking for a playoff spot. Hull needs to win today to fend off both Peterborough and Sunderland’s envious eyes on that automatic promotion spot. Gillingham’s form against the top 5 teams has only ended in victory once and that was against Lincoln who after last night’s performance against Oxford is no surprise. (Read last night’s blog). Hull City’s goal-scoring ability is second to none this season with 62 balls hitting the back of the net from the 37 games played, Gillingham has allowed 49 goals past them in the same number of games. Defensively, at home, Hull has conceded just 9 goals this season whilst scoring 21.

With a game in hand over Hull at the top 3 points separate them so this is an ideal opportunity for Peterborough. Their home form record has seen them accrue 41 points from 17 games Having only lost 2 home games all season once against Hull and once against Blackpool. Peterborough have 58 goals from 36 games while only conceding 37. Accrington on the other hand have scored in 82% of their away games and will prove challenging opponents for Peterborough but the likelihood is, I think, that Peterborough will end the game as victors.


Ladbrokes Saturday League one Treble. Sunderland, M.K.Dons, and Peterborough all to win

#Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 6.0 to 7.0 (5/1 to 6/1).
Sunderland are currently 3rd in the league with 2 games in thand to league leaders Hull and one game in hand to second place Peterborough. Form from the last 8 games suggest that Sunderland are on fire gaining a total of 20 points from these games. Bristol Rovers are hosting this match and Sunderlands form from the last 4 aways put 10 points on the board. Bristol need a win today just to keep from swirling into the relegation zone. This does not look likely as they have lost over half (56%) of their home games, 2 of them to the top two sides in the league by a 2 goal margin in both games. In the 5 times that Sunderland and Bristol have played Sunderland have won 3 of those matches. Their last game ended 1-1 in last September.

Mid table M.K. Dons are hosting 5th place and out of form Doncaster. This is the bogey-man game and needs a thorough picking over. The Dons do have a terrible record when playing teams from the top half of the league. Of the 10 games that they have been at home to teams higher than them they have lost 4 Drawn 4 and won only 2. Doncasters strength seems to be at home and is where most of their points have come from whereas of the 16 away games they have played have resulted in only gaining 17 points (The Dons away record is better than that (20 points)) having said all of this however Doncaster have scored in 81% of their away games and have won the last two times they have played at Milton Keynes. Head to Head stats show a distinct advantage to a Doncaster win or Draw with the Dons only having won twice in their last 9 meetings. As far as league positions are affected by the result Doncaster winning would push them further into the play-off zone and with Accrington snapping at their heels and that away game yet to be played I would think that there will be some pretty harsh words said in the dressing room before the game. Even though Doncaster are currently formless they do have goalscoring ability and the Dons defensive record is that they have conceded 52 goals in the 37 games played this season 29 of them at home.

Finally in this challenging treble is Peterborough’s game against Accrington. With a game in hand over Hull at the top 3 points separate them so this is an ideal opportunity for Peterborough. Their home form record has seen them accrue 41 points from 17 games Having only lost 2 home games all season once against Hull and once against Blackpool. Peterborough have 58 goals from 36 games while only conceding 37. Accrington on the other hand have scored in 82% of their away games and will prove challenging opponents for Peterborough but the likelihood is, I think, that Peterborough will end the game as victors.
Good luck with whatever you choose to do.