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The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Free bet No 6 Week 2

I am back to football today and after analysing Ladbrokes friday night boosted treble unearthed a likely candidate for my 4th bet this week. Espanyol are away to Castellon tonight in a game that is crucial to both teams. A win for Espanyol would put them level on points with top team Mallorca who they beat when away and have yet to play them at home and at the other end of the league Castellon need points desperately to get themselves of the relegation precipice. Espanyol are expected to win and probably will but Castellon have scored at home against the 3 top teams they played. A 1-2 scoreline is entirely possible but I am playing safeish and backing over 2.5 goals at 2.38.

Ladbrokes Friday Night Boosted Treble, Lincoln Sligo Rovers and Espanyol all to win 9.0 from 8.0

At 19:45 tonight Lincoln travel to Oxford for this league one clash. In previous head to heads between these two sides have ended badly for lincoln except for the last game where Lincoln were hosts and won 2-0. Oxford have always won in at home against Lincoln in this league and have even beat them 6-0 when at Lincoln.
Lincoln are currently 4th in league one with a game in hand over league leaders Hull City but the points gap is 7 points They could not even make 2nd even if Peterborough lose against Accrington tomorrow. Lincolns’ recent form is quite bad as they have only got 6 points from 8 games. Having said that however Lincoln have scored in 76% of their away games this season. When Oxford have played teams towards the top of the league at home they have either lost (3) or drawn (4) with the exception of Doncaster in which they won 3-0.
Sligo Rovers are also playing away at Waterford in the second game of the season so the stats are quite thin on the ground. A guide to the result of this game could be the match odds which are heavily in favour of Sligo who are odds on to win but if we look at the previous season these two sides are quite evenly matched with Sligo finishing 4th one place above Waterford. You have to question why Ladbrokes would include this game in the treble as neither of these teams seem to be scoring giants. Perhaps Sligo will win but the price is a bit short to put money on.
Final game tonight is Espanyol who are currently 2nd in the spanish second league playing away at Castellon who are fighting for survival at 18th tottering on the edge of the relegation zone. Of the last 4 away games Espanyol have drawn 3 times and won once with all 4 games having a 100% BTTS rate but when playing away against the teams just above and in the relegation zone they have won. This game would have to be the banker of the 3 which means that it will probably the only one that loses.
An out of form Lincoln and lack of stats for Sligo has to put this into the BettOrNot category. Ladbrokes will probably win this one!

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Free bet No 5 Week 2

A change in tack 😜 for this bet means we head off to Chepstow for the 14:07 Easter Titles at Oliversbookshop.co.uk Handicap Chase. I received a tip last night for Goodnight Charlie from one of the lads in Smithfield Market so when I got home this morning had a look at its recent form and its last 3 outings were at Warwick over progressivly longer distances with the last one over 3m 5f where it placed on good to soft ground. Todays race is over a still slightly longer 3m 6f 130yds with a good going and good to soft in places. This horse has only run on good or good to soft ground 16 times Winning 3 times and placing 5 times. This race is the furthest she has raced and after starting at 12/1 in her last race a forcast S.P. today of 4/1 you could be excused for thinking at least a place today. I also have the added bonus that should she not win but place 2nd or 3rd then @SkyBet will give me my stake back.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Free bet No 4 Week 2

World Cup Qualifiers begin tonight and France host Ukraine and with no stats so far this is a difficult game to decipher. Yet again the 2.5 goals market has a certain appeal with Under 2.5 goals taking my eye. If we take a look at the qualifiers for the 2018 tournament in 2017 Ukraine only had one game in which there were 3 goals or more and that was against Finland. The eventual runners up Croatia could only put 2 in against them. Current Champions, France, however did fair better in their score lines with 3 games from 5 ending with more than 2 goals scored. An other factor in this is that this tournament is unlike any other due to the fact that the Chinese Bat Flu has made it necessary to play the opening qualifiers in a week meaning that each team are playing 4 matches within a week. A tall order for any team. This may mean that whilst the dominant team may well take an early lead will the managers rest their goalscorers for future matches? This will undoubtedly be revealed later on tonight but I am putting my money where my mouth is and backing Under 2.5 goals at 2.0

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Free bet No 3 Week 2

With only league 1 and league 2 games tonight A league 2 mid table clash between Carlisle and Leyton Orient provides a suitable game to start the week for my next free bet qualifying bet. As I don’t want to lose all my money on one bet I will be staking 5 x £5.00 bets each week to try and stay even if not a little bit in profit. (Remember a total of £25.00 has to be staked at 2.0 (Evens) or better to get your weekly free bet).
I have staked £5.00 on the over 2.5 goals market at 2.0 for the following reasons.
Carlisle Utd at home have a 72% record of scoring in the first half with 9 out of 23 goals coming in the first 15 minutes and another 10 in the last 15 minutes of the half while in the final third of the second half they have conceded 9 out of the 14 goals against them in the second half. With these stat in mind it would suggest that they are quick to attack in the first half hopefully putting their opponents on to the back foot but let themselves down at the back end of the game indicating perhaps a 2-1 win for the home team. Other factors that give the bet a little weight is that Carlisle have conceded at least one goal in the last 11 games (Both home and Away) but they have scored in all of their home games this season and averaging 2. Leyton Orient have conceded have scored in 71% of their away games this season. Carlisle, when at home to other mid table sides have a 2-1 win v Salford (9th), 3-1 v Bradford (12th) and 4-0 v Stevenage (15th). Leyton’s away games when playing teams above them in the league have all ended with at least 3 goals being scored except for 4 Tranmere, Bolton, Newport and Bradford.

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Free bet No 2

Leicester are hosting Man Utd Today (21 March 2021) and Skybet have offered a free £5.00 bet when any in-play £5.00 cash bet in the first half is struck at odds of 1.5 (1/2) or above. This free bet is advertised as being used in the second half but like all free bets from SktBet it has no expiry.
Leicester have scored or conceded over 2.5 goals in 2 of the 3 F.A. Cup games played so far. Man Utd have scored (obviously) in all of their Matches. Both sides have Over 2.5 goals averages of 57% or more which makes this a possible bet. I will be placing the bet as close to kickoff as possible as an Early goal (which both of these sides are capable of) will reduce the odds to below 1.5 and therefore not make the bet qualification terms. Assuming the bet wins at 1.83 (odds at time of writing) the profit will be £4.19. Do not cash out as this will also make the qualification bet void!!

The Road to Cheltenham 2022

This years Cheltenham Festival saw me enter the fray with over £300 in free bets from SkyBet, whos’ free bets never expire. I managed to convert that to over £199.64 with the help of the money back offers. It is now time to start saving for next year and my first £5.00 free bet is already in the bag due to this weeks bets already settled. and will be credited this Monday. These series of Blog posts will track my bets each week, hopefully ending up in profit as well as having at least £260 in free bets by next March in time for next years Festival. As well as the regular weekly £5.00 free bet for wagering £25.00 there are plenty more opportunities that they offer so follow me on twitter as well as this blog to join in if you want.

Arsenal, Juventus & Villarreal all to win

Boylesports have put this gem up and it immediatly took my eye because of the obvious no-no (in my opinion) of never take sides in a derby. As I have pointed out in my previous post about Ladbrokes boosted treble which also included the Arsenal Tottenham derby Tottenham have won 8 of these head to heads since Nov 2010 and drawn 7 leaving Arsenal with just 6 wins out of 21 games. Both teams have just won their Thursday Europa League games and todays team selection will be key and informative as to the intentions of the managers. Both of these teams can still reach Champion League places – such a difficult game to call.
Juventus currently 3rd in Serie A are playing away to 17th placed Cagliari and they are quite bluntly on form at the moment having scored no fewer than 19 goals in 8 matches. Cagliari have not managed to hold off any attacks by the top 7 sides when playing at home this season with their best score being 0-1 v Atalanta.
Spain is the venue for the final leg of this treble and more specifically Eibar where they host 7th placed Villarreal. Eibar are fighting for their place next season and dont have a good record when at home to teams higher in the league. On the other hand teams at the lower end of the league seem to be able to hold Villarreal to a draw most notable being a 0-0 draw to bottom club Huesca.
Good luck with whatever you decide as they have priced it about right at 9.0

Ladbrokes Premier League Treble. Brighton Leicester and Tottenham all to win.

After finishing my Timeform1-2-3 series in time for the start of Cheltenham next week (read about it here) I am back to picking the bones out of the bookmakers boosted bets. Todays target is Labrokes again. Ladbrokes are incessantly putting adverts on the radio telling all to gamble responsibly and then go and lure unsuspecting punters into their tentacles with these little gems.
Lets look at the Brighton match first as they have plainly put this in alphabetical order to hide it in plain veiw.
Brighton are away to Southampton today in the 12 o’clock kickoff and the odds suggest an away win could be on here. Southamptons home record of late has not been easy reading, having lost 3 and drawn 1 in the last 4 games. Brighton on the other hand have been victorious while playing away against both Leeds and Liverpool, drawn against Burnley but lost against West Brom. Brighton more than Southampton are needing back end season wins to lift them ever more away from the dredded drop zone. A factor against Brighton might be that Southampton have won their home matches when playing against teams that are lower than them in the league, 2-0 Newcastle, 2-0 West Brom, 3-0 Shefield Utd. In the past 7 encounters in this league Brighton have failed to win with Southampton winning 3 times and draws coming in the other games (All score draws by the way)
Next up is Leicester City who are hosting Sheffield Utd this afternoon. As most of you will be aware the tussle at the top is getting just a little more than exciting. With the top spot albeit lost in the clouds the battle for a champions league place can only really be described as savage. Sheffield Utd, even though all seems lost, managed to deny 3 points to Manchester Utd. Leicester cannot afford to lose with Tottenham Everton and West Ham all lookig at that 4th league spot with envious eyes. Recent form suggests that Leicester should win this quite comfortably but nothing should ever be a given in this game. Offensivley Leicester have scored 48 goals in 28 matches whereas sheffield have only managed 16. Leicesters defensive record is not great allowing 32 goals past them in the same 28 games.
Tottenham are away to Arsenal in this most famous of all North London Derbys. This fact alone would prevent me from including this game in any acca! Both teams have just played in the Europa League last Thursday (Both Winning) so fatigue must play a part. A win for Tottenham today would put them into 5th should West Ham lose to Manchester Utd later this evening but Tottenhams away form recently might suggest a different result having won only the most recent game against Fulham 0-1 losing to West Ham 2-1, Man City 3-0 and Brighton 1-0. Head to Head stats are against Tottenham by 13 – 8 (Arsenal wins 6, Draws 7, to Tottenhams 8 wins)

Ladbrokes have boosted this bet to 11.0 from 9.0 but you can get 11.5 on the Smarkets exchange if you are really intent on putting money on this

Betornot 😉

Cheltenham Timeform 1-2-3 Three year Trends Day 4 Summary

Day 4
2018
Race 1 -£3.00
Race 2 -£3.00
Race 3 -£3.00
Race 4 -£3.00
Race 5 -£3.00
Race 6 -£3.00
Race 7 -£3.00
Total Day Loss -£21.00
Total Festival Loss for 2018 -£26.42

2019
Race 1 +£18.00
Race 2 -£3.00
Race 3 -£3.00
Race 4 -£3.00
Race 5 -£3.00
Race 6 -£3.00
Race 7 -£3.00
Total Days Profit Loss £0.00
Total Festival Profit for 2019 £18.49

2020
Race 1 -£3.00
Race 2 +£3.00
Race 3 -£3.00
Race 4 +1.33
Race 5 -£3.00
Race 6 +£1.50
Race 7 -£3.00
Total Days loss -£6.17
Total 2020 Festival Loss -£4.52

The total loss incured over 3 years when backing 3 horses per race at level £1.00 stakes (252 bets) -£12.45 This works out at a loss of 15p per race 🤣