Timeform has a star rating system to which it grades each and every horse raced in Britain. These are a series of Blogs that chart the 3 year trends of the top 3 horses as rated by Timeform for the Cheltenham Festival. The aim of this is to determine whether or not a £1.00 level bet on each of the selections would produce a profit overall (There are 7 races each day therefore max loss each day would be £21.00)
First up is the SkyBet Supreme Novices Hurdle
2018 (19 ran)
1 Kalashnikov
2 Summerville Boy
3 Getabird
Winner : Summerville Boy S.P. 7/1
Profit/Loss £5.00
2019 (16 ran)
1 Klassical Dream
2 Mister Fisher
3 Fakir D’Oudairies
Winner : Klassical Dream S.P. 6/1
Profit/Loss £4.00
2020 (15 Ran)
1 Asterion Forlonge
2 Captain Guinness
3 Shishkin
Winner : Shishkin 6/1
Profit/Loss £4.00
This stategy has produced a clear profit each year
An added bonus to this strategy is that SkyBet will refund your first bet should it lose upto £10.00 maximising the profit or cutting the loss if none win.
Author Archives: shakey775
Footy Accumulators PREMIUM BOOST FOR THE MNF ACTION
Just a little bit of research picks holes in this bet.
To begin with a simple look at the cards part shows that both of these players are no Norman Hunters 🥰
Everton’s Doucoure has had 23 premiership appearances this season and has only had a total of 6 yellow cards. His average fouls per game counts as less than 1 at 0.9 per 90 mins perhaps the guy is going for a sainthood. Southampton’s Bertrand fairs no better in the bad boy league with 5 yellows in 23 games he is perhaps slightly more wicked than Doucoure as his foul rate is an incredible 1.2 average per 90 mins. If this doesn’t convince you nothing will but I will delve into Everton’s Rodrigues ability to shoot straight!
Having only made 18 appearances (2 of these as a sub) he has managed an average of only 1.8 shots at goal per game and less than 1 shot on target (0.9) and over half of these get blocked (0.5).
Southamptons Danny Ings is probably the only part of this bet that will come to fruition with an average of 2.3 shots at goal per game 1.2 of these were on target
Personally I wouldn’t put 5p on this bet let alone £5.00
BettOrNot
£1.00 to £100.00 Third Time Lucky (Bet No. 3)
After a resounding 2nd minute goal by Bale I can move onto bet no 3 and have chosen a Bundesliga 2 game tonight between St Pauli and Hamburger SV.
St Pauli are currently sitting at 12th place out of 18 in the league and have an impressive 8 game form record of 19 points as opposed to Hamburger being 4th in the league and a less impressive form of just 13 points from 8 games
St Pauli’s last 4 home games have been 3 wins and 1 defeat and this against league leaders Bochum where there were a total of 4 goals in the 1st half with St Pauli scoring first in the 4th minute and a game of “Ping Pong” ensued. leaving a half time score line of 2-2. Bochum then administered the Coup de Gras in the 63rd minute.
To probe further back, the first home game of the season began well for 1st half goals with 2 being scored in this game followed by 2 more in the match v Nurnberg. Karlsruher made it 3 on the trot with a single scored in the 4th minute. A disappointing end to November saw Osnabruck score the only goal to win in the 85th minute. Christmas Month started well with a 10 minute score by Erzgebirge and the first goal scored by Dusseldorf in the same minute in the next game. This year there has been only 2 home games where there were no first half goals once v Holstein Kiel and the other against Sandhausen.
On to 4th Placed Hamburger and the 1st half goals statistic is at least 1 first half goal has been scored in 86% of Hamburg’s 2. Bundesliga games this season. That home and away. If I look at just the away games the 1st game of the season against Paderborn saw 5 (FIVE) first half goals. We then have to go to the 12th Dec to see no goals in the 1st half, this was against Darmstadt. Since then only the Dusseldorf game has seen no 1st half goals!
5 out of 6 games this year have seen Hamburger score or concede at least 1 goal in the first 20 minutes when playing away.
Footy Accumulators Acca of the Day
Footy Accumulators have posted their Acca of the Day and involves over 2.5 goals happening in 3 separate games
First on the list is Spurs v Burnley, a game I have already flagged as an early goal probability and warned of Tottenham’s tendency to concede makes this a probable outcome even though over 2.5 goals at Tottenham and when Burnley play away are both pegged at only 33%. This is a distinct void compared to Tottenhams home over 1.5 goals pecentage being over 80% (83%)
Second on the list is the Inter v Genoa match in this Serie A mismatch Inter could and probably will fulfill this leg on their own having an average goal scoring rate at home of 2.91 and an over 2.5 goals match percentage matching Tottenhams over 1.5 percentage! If you couple with this the the fact that Inter have only “Won to Nil” in 27% of their home games this leg would be as close to a banker as you could probably get.
Third and final leg of this acca is the Bundesliga bottom half tussle between Mainz and Augsburg. This might be the let down as Mainz at home concede or score 3 goals in only 36% of the time. Slightly more encouraging is the fact that Augsburg away achieve a 50% rate usually done in the second half.
If the Tottenham game was first to be played time wise the distinct possibility of the early goal would make this a layable prospect.
BettorNot 🙂
£1.00 to £100.00 Third Time Lucky (Bet No. 2)
With adrenaline pumping I have just put £1.42 on there being over 0.5 first half goals in the Tottenham v Burnley game this afternoon. Tottenham’s 11 first half goals count as 65% and 9 of these being scored in the first 30 minutes makes this an attractive proposition, coupled with this, Burnley have managed to keep a clean sheet up to half time only once in their last 5 premiership away games.
Ladbrokes Premier League Treble. Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs All to win
Ladbrokes have chosen the 3 big London clubs to create this interesting treble. Boosted from 9.0 (8/1) to 11.0 (10/1) seems a fair price as 10.0 is all you can get on the smarkets exchange.
First Game on the list is Leicester v (The Mighty) Arsenal, and at first sight Leicesters form from the last 4 home and away games is won 3 drawn 1 in contrast to Arsenal who have lost 3 and Won 1. It is all very tense at the top and leicester are level on points with Man Utd in their race to catch the seemingly unstoppable Man City. Arsenal’s last premiership away match was against Aston Villa 22 days ago and were beaten with a “surprise” 2nd minute goal. The Wolves game 4 days earlier was just a nightmare for them as 2 red cards and a penalty sealed this and very probably the villa game too with 2 suspensions and 4 out injured. Leicester have a great deal to gain from this match as Man Utd will need to beat an inform Chelsea. With Barnes only coming on late against Prague on Thursday may well see him fresh for this premiership clash.
Chelsea are are narrow favourites to win this game over Man Utd and should they do so and Leicester beat Arsenal it would pitch them 1 point above West Ham into 4th place. Chelsea are on form since losing manager Frank Lampard and Momentum may well carry them on to victory here. The very real battle for a mathematical top spot for Manchester cannot be discounted however and their goal scoring ability playing away from home speaks volumes and they will want to lift themselves from the doldrums that they are presently stranded in. The lack of a Stamford Bridge crowd could well be a deciding factor in this clash of premier titans.
Spurs host Burnley in this 2 o’clock kick off and reading from the match odds should be a walk in the park for them. But away goals can never be discounted at Tottenham home games and their form this season has seen them concede to all the teams below Burnley in the league except West Brom. All this being said however these two sides have met on ne fewer than 11 times since 2014 and Burnley have never won at the Tottenham ground.
If we take the Exchange odds of this treble as the most accurate it amounts to a 10% implied probability and with 9 possible outcomes of this treble, having the correct 3 fall into line considering who is playing seems a bit of a tall order. This may well be another treble that Ladbrokes win
Bettornot eh?
£1.00 to £100.00 Third Time Lucky
Having lost my £1.77 to a fit of greed, the Wonder Wheel paid out again this time with 5 free spins and £1.04 in winnings. So I begin again courtesy of Mr Power.
That’s as far as i got yesterday before my laptop battery gave a bit of a squeak threatening all sorts of violence unless plugged in pronto. Being banned from my office for the afternoon as my wife had zoom meetings.
Now its 5 am and I am back in the seat of power
Before going for my afternoon sleep,(As I have mentioned before I am a full time truck driver for a meat packing company. Every nights a day in my life), I stuck £1.04 on the over 0.5 goals in the 1st half Frankfurt Market at odds of 1.36 – Heres why
Bremen Hosted Frankfurt Last night in the Bundesliga. From the last 4 away games frankfurt have produced 6 first half goals as well as conceding 2. Bremen have conceded 3 first half goals in the first half in 2 of the last 4 home games.
Derby, Hearts and Eintracht Frankfurt all to Win
Ladbrokes have picked 3 “favourites” to boost tonight with this treble being boosted from 7.5 to 9.0
1st on the list are Derby County who are hosting Nottingham Forest in a Midlands Derby tonight. To say Derby County are favourites can only be because of the fact that they are at home. Derby are currently 18th in the League and in all fairness won their last four home games with only Huddersfield being below them in the championship. Derby County it must be said though, are on fire at the moment gaining 18 points from eight games both home and away.
Nottingham Forest being only two places above Derby have not embarrassed themselves either having won 14 points from their last eight games. They drew two of their matches at home against Barnsley who are 8th and Swansea who are 4th. Nottingham have scored more goals away than Derby have at home. Without fans at this local Derby, we might see a distinct lack of goals with Derby probably scoring first in the first half and Nottingham Forest equalising in the second
Moving North to Inverness where the second leg of this treble will see League leaders Hearts try to extend their lead over Dunfermline in the championship. Playing away hearts have accrued a total of 16 points from the last eight games only dropping points against 4th place Queen of the South drawing 1-1 and losing to Dundee 3-1 who are currently 5th. In the last four home games inverness have drawn three and lost one. All these drawn games have had goals, and this has to be a factor that could cast doubt into hearts expected victory as inverness have an 83% equalising rate!
Frankfurts trip to Bremen concludes this threefold quandary.
Frankfurt are firing on all cylinders at the moment leading the form table by 4 points amassing 22 points from eight games to Bremen’s 9. Frankfurt are averaging 2.18 goals per game this season wow big while playing away in contrast to Bremen’s home goal average of less than one (0.9).
Frankfurt it seems, tends to apply pressure on their hosts midway through the second half where they have scored eight of their 24 away goals. Bremen’s goals scored while playing at home only total 9. I would expect Bremen to lose tonight
Good luck with whatever you decide
Bettornot!
Greed is not Good!
Due to circumstances beyond my control I was unable to post yesterdays Paddy Power £1.00 to £100 instalment but did however research it and stake the full £1.77 on not one but two Europa League games last night as a greedy double. Here’s why.
“For the next bet (£1.77) I am looking at the Europa League. Looking at match odds of 1.5 or below for the favourite I drew up the following shortlist.
Hoffenheim 1.25 (v Molde)
AC Milan 1.43 (v Crvena Zvezda (Red Star))
Leicester 1.50 (v Slavia Praha)
So with 3 matches to choose from I started with Hoffenheim.
Looking at previous Europa League games this season Hoffenheim have played 7 games, 3 of them being goalless at half-time were both red star legs and the away leg of Slovan Liberec. The home games where at least one goal was scored before half-time saw 2 goals v Slovan Liberec at 22′ and 30′. The home leg v Gent also had 2 first half goals at 21′ and 26′ (note: hindsight is a wonderful thing)
Molde only has 2 0-0 score lines at half time these being Dundalks away leg and the home game against (The Mighty) Arsenal.
In all likelyhood there will be a 1st half goal but over over 05 goals can come from either side and Hoffenheim’s excellent 1st half “clean sheet” record would cut that likely probability in half! (Note: it was at this point that I talked myself out of backing this match – fool!!)
The same cannot be said for A.C. Milano who with the exception of the away leg v Lille have scored or conceded in every game. Their opponents tonight Red Star have also scored or conceded in all but 3 games (both Hoffenheim lags and away to Slovan Liberec) in the 1st half. Serie A League stats back A.C. milan’s early goal scoring capability with only 3 games from 23 ending goalless at half-time. With Red Star also having a similar record (3 from 22) this game became a “no-brainer”.
Finally onto Leicester.
Leicester only just made the shortlist with match odds of 1.50 and this one seemed the banker of bankers (W*****rs of bankers more like)
Leicesters journey to the last 32 has seen them, or their opponents score in all but two games in the first half. These facts made me greedy and after talking myself out of backing the Hoffenheim game decided to back the double! and we all know what happened next!!!
Brentford v Sheffield Wed. over 0.5 goals in half 1
After winning 30p in the Man City game last week from my £1.00 the time has come to plunge into staking the lot onto another likely 1st half goal and out of form Brentford v Sheffield Wed is the game tonight. Sheffield seems to be a football barren city this season with both teams looking at relegation this year. With this I am not looking at form neccessarily (although, away, Sheffield have only 11 points from 15 games and at home Brentford have 29 points from the same number of games) but the early scoring and conceding goals is more to the fore. Defensivly Sheffield have conceded less than Brentford (32-34) but Brentford have scored 56 goals from 31 games to Sheffields 21. This is a huge void but again not indicative of early goals. If we look at the total goals scored by Brentford in the first half of all games played they total 23 against 33 scored in the second half but if we look at just the home games the ratio is a bit closer (14-15). To take this a step further the teams where Brentford tended to score 1st half goals against were lower positioned teams in the league
QPR 14′
Preston 8′
Luton 14′
Wycombe 9′
two exceptions are prevalent however these being Huddersfield 58′ and Coventry 46′ These are all first goals scored and are in actual fact scored by Brentford even though they lost to Preston 2-4
Sheffield Weds 1st half stats against teams from the top half of the league are as follows,
Norwich 60′ 😦
Swansea 27′ 🙂
Bournemouth 44′ 🙂
Stoke 83′ 😦
Millwall 10 🙂
Bristol 59′ 😦
Blackburn 41′ 🙂
Defensively Sheffield are more than capable of holding a game but with Brentford’s recent form in mind and Sheffield being at the bottom of the league I would hope to see Brentford attacking from the off.
A couple of facts to support this bet are
There has been a first-half goal scored in each of Brentford’s last 7 games in a row.
At each meeting of these two sides since 2017/18 season, whether home or away, there has been at least one 1st half goal in every match.
Betornot 