Author Archives: shakey775

Brighton v Crystal Palace Both teams to score in the 1st Half

Boylesports have boosted this one from 9/2 to 5/1 and it caught my eye as to why!!

Brighton first. In all matches (Home and Away ) Brighton have only managed to score a total of 12 goals in the 1st half. When they are playing at home that figure is cut to 5. Just 5 goals in the 1st half from 12 games!
If we look at who these goals were against, the first was a 40th minute penalty against Man Utd, No 2 was an own goal by J. Livermore of West Brom. 3rd was another penalty , this time in the 26th minute against Southampton. The 4th and 5th goals were actually scored by Brighton players Connolly in the Wolves match and Trossard in the Spurs match. Only 2 of these 5 goals then were actually “in play” Crystal Palace have only given away 2 penalties this season, both were in the second half and both in the same match against Chelsea. They also have not scored any own-goals away from home this season either. If Brighton hope to score in the first half it look like they will have to do it on their own without any help from Palace. Having said all of that however Crystal Palace have conceded 8 goals in the 1st half when playing Away (which is 4 times as many as Brighton have scored without help).
Moving onto Crystal Palaces 1st half scoring prowess shows that when playing away they managed to beat Brightons scoring ability by 1 (including penalties and own-goals) one of these was an own goal and 2 were scored in the same game. Brighton for all of their lack of ability to score goals do seem to have a better record of denying the opposition in the first half, conceding just 6 in the 1st half when playing at home as opposed to 9 in the second half.
A quid would get you a pint and it might be worth it. The likleyhood is that given these teams league positions there may well be a 0-0 draw as has happened a total of 4 times this season with 2 of Brightons coming from the Fulham and Burnley games.

Good Luck in Whatever you decide I will be trying for a free pint 🍺

West Ham, Aston Villa, and Man City all to win

Ladbrokes continue to entice unsuspecting punters to part with their money offering attractive odds on mediocre trebles but sticking an “odds on” banker in there to sweeten it. They have called this one their “Early Kick Off” Treble even though Man City dont kick off until 16:30.
West Ham host Tottenham today in the “Early Kick off” in this North London Derby. I would imagine that confidence is high in the ladbrokes camp as they have priced West Ham at 3.0 (2/1) on a home victory. West Ham’s form figures for the last 8 games (home and away) read WWWWLWDW quite impressive until you look more closely and see who they played. Tottenham’s form is very much less impressive WDWLLLWL. 3 of these losses came at the hands of Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool.
West Ham are without Ogbonna in defence today who is out due to an ankle injury. They are currently sitting in 5th place six points in front of Tottenham who have a game in hand and two wins (Today and v Burnley next weekend would see them vying for a europa league spot. After today Tottenham’s next 3 premiership games see them up against Burnley, Fulham and Crystal Palace. West Ham have both Manchesters and Leeds as their next 3 Premiership clashes.

Aston Villa host Leicester City in the middle leg of this treble and an inform Leicester will be wanting to monopolise on their 3-1 victory over Liverpool last week. A win today will see them claim second place in the league and goals will be crucial to keeping Manchester Utd at bay Again Ladbrokes post odds of 3.1 for the home victory leaving Leicester City firm favourites at 2.37 to win away . Aston Villa’s form at home against teams higher in the league can only be counted from 2 matches the most recent of which against West Ham they Lost 1-3 as a plus however they did give Liverpool a spanking earlier in the season winning 7-2. Leicester on the other hand have solid form against mid-table teams. The second half may well decide this game as Aston Villa where they have conceded 64% of their goals against in contrast to Leicester’s 70% of goals scored away from home come in the second half.
Final game in this trio of trouble comes the 16:30 kick off between League leaders Man City and 9th place Arsenal. The Emirates Stadium will be silent again to fans and you cant help but wonder if this has a profound effect on the players. We all know that the home advantage is worth something but without the encouragement of thousands of devoted fans, can that advantage be canceled or even reversed. Man City do seem to be unstoppable with their last 8 games ending in victory whether they were home or away or playing top or bottom teams. They have only lost one game and drawn 3 all season when playing away. Odds of 1.5 are hard to oppose given their current form but odds of 6.5 for a home win seem excessive.
The odds for this tremble have been boosted from 13.0 (12/1) to 15.0 (14/1).

Good luck in whatever you decide.

Betornot!!

Update on Boosted Odds

23rd Jan West Ham, Brighton and Norwich All to Win Lost +£10
31st Jan Getafe and Sporting Gijon both to win Lost +£10
1st Feb Watford, Betis and Sporting Lisbon All T Win Lost +£10
3rd Feb Rangers, Napoli and Lyon all To Win Lost +£10
5th Feb Norwich, Inter Milan and Valladolid All to Win Lost +£10
9th Feb Man Utd, Inter Milan and Real Madrid all to win Lost +£10
12th Feb Preston, Hearts and RB Leipzig All to Win Lost +£10
13th Feb Rangers, Crystal Palace and Watford all to win Lost +£10
13th Feb Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win Lost +£10
14th Feb Wolves, Celtic and Brentford All to Win Lost +£10
15th Feb Chelsea, Athletic Bilbao and Gent all to Win Won – £30 😭😭
19th Feb Leeds, Real Betis and Lyon all to win Lost +£10
20th Feb Burnley, Liverpool and Fulham All to win Lost +£10

If you were going to back these boosted odds bets with £10.00 and after reading my Blog decided not to You would be £90 better off
Only one of the Boosted odds bets that I have covered actually won and have counted this as a bet that would have netted you £30 if placed on the exchange and therefore counted it as a loss for the sake of these figures. The boost itself would have netted you only £27.50!

Burnley, Liverpool and Fulham All to win

Ladbrokes have several boosted trebles out this morning and Boosted from 6.0 (5/1) to 7.0 (6/1) is burnley, Liverpool and Fulham all to win
Burnley v West Brom
Burnley’s home form is slightly better than West Brom away form. From the last 4 home games Burnley’s form reads DDLW whereas West Brom away form is LLLD.
On the 19th Oct 20 these two teams met in West Bromwich where the game ended goalless. Burnleys home games have however never ended goalless and Neither has West Broms Away games so we can expect to see at least one goal today but from who is anyones guess as proved mid week when an early goal against Man Utd forced a 1-1 goal against the in-form giant. Burnley have come back to win only once at home after their opponents scored first and that was against Aston Villa which ended 3-2. 7 out of 14 of Burnley’s Home game conceded goals came in the first half with 3 of these in the first 15 minutes.
Liverpool v Everton
Anfield see these two mersey stalwarts do battle yet again and because of the Bat Flu, Everton fans will not be at the ground to witness perhaps there first victory at the ground since 1999. It is being shown live however on sky Sports so be prepared for power cuts as 1.4million scousers all tune in at once 😊
Both teams will be out to win and Liverpool perhaps have more to prove with being such out of form in the league. LLLD form from the last 4 home league games have to be improved. An Everton victory today will see the two mersey teams level on points but with Everton having a game in hand and with Everton having conceded less goals away than Liverpool have conceded at home this promises to be a promising battle.

Fulham v Sheffield Utd
Fulham are hosting bottom side Sheffield Utd tonight and today might just be one of those rare times that BetVictor have to Pay up their £2.00 free bet when Fulham win 🤑 If we look at the average points per game (PPG) it can only signal disaster for both sides, with Fulham managing to gain just over 1/2 point per game (0.58) and Sheffield taking an average 0.33 PPG. If you compare this with 10th place Arsenal who average 1.5 PPG and top placed Man City’s 2.25 PPG you get a feel of just how doomed these two sides are. Fulham have managed 1 home win and 3 draws when playing at home whereas Sheffield have an away win and an away draw neither stats being very inspiring. Perhaps BetVictors £2.00 free bet will be safe for another week!
A safer bet than this treble would to put over 1.5 goals for each game into a treble
Burnley Playing at Home Over 1.5 goals 58%
West Brom away Over 1.5 Goals 92%
Liverpool at Home Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Everton Away Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Fulham at Home Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Sheffield Away Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Good luck with whatever you choose to do

Leeds, Real Betis and Lyon all to win

Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 8.5 to 9.5
Lets have a look how the teams stack up
Leeds are away to Wolves tonight and Wolves will be hungry to win this as they would leap Leeds and be snapping at the heels of 10th place Arsenal.
Wolves haven’t lost a game at home against fellow mid table sides in complete contrast to Leeds who have recorded away defeats at the hands (or feet) of Crystal Palace (14th) Arsenal (10th) and Tottenham (9th). Wolves seem to have a habit of conceding the first goal but then rallying to a 60% equalizing rate and then converting that into a win as in the case of the Arsenal game where Pepe scored in the 32nd minute to which Wolves responded in the 45th and 49th minutes. And again when they played Chelsea who scored first in the 49th minute but the match finished in a 2-1 victory for Wolves.
The odds for an away win being 2/1 (3.0) with Ladbrokes seems to suggest that Wolves at 2.3 (13/10) stand a better chance.

Real Betis are hosting Getafe and with the exception of the Eibar game they have won all of their home games against teams lower in the league than them. Getafe have No victories against teams that are above them in the league at all. Real Betis are in quite good form as they have earned 14 points from their last 8 games whereas Getafe have only managed 7, 6 coming from defeating the bottom 2 teams in the league and 1 from a 0-0 draw against 16th placed Alaves! Odds of 2.05 for a home win might be a good bet on its own here and a plus for the treble

Final leg of this boosted treble comes from France. Lyon are being hosted by Brest and victory tonight would see them take a temporary 2nd place in Ligue 1 above PSG (who play Monaco on Sunday)
Lyon have recorded victories against teams in a similar position to Brest but a couple of draws might bring some doubt into this game. To compound this Brest have, while playing at home beaten two of the other top 4 sides Notably a 3-2 win at home and holding top placed Lille to a 0-0 draw away.
I wont be putting any cash on this one either
Good luck in whatever you decide

A 42nd OG takes this bet forward

A 42 minute Own Goal by Crvena zvezda’s Pankov secured this bet with 3 minutes to spare 🤑 Top Man!!!
I have just done the research on a Paddy Power “Beat the Drop” question which I thought was on the list but turns out I mis-read it ?? Any way the research was Wolves v Leeds Both Teams to Score
Instead of lumping my £1000 pot onto yes I have lumped my £2.62 from the above bet at odds of 1.63. with Paddy Power Click here to go to the bet
Here are the reasons why
Wolves have scored in 3 of their last 4 home games
Leeds have scored in 3 of their last 4 away games
Wolves have only failed to score twice in their last 12 home games (17%)
Leeds have only failed to score once in the 12 away games this season (8%)
Wolves have conceded at least one goal in 75% of their home matches
Leeds have conceded at least one goal in 67% of their away Matches
One blot on this landscape is that Leeds failed to score in the previous meeting of these two teams at Elland Rd.

If you are new to my blog this may seem a bit random so please check out my previous blogs

£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
Bet 4 £1 – £100 Using Betfair’s Time of First Goal Market
£1 – £100 using Time of first goal market on betfair “Obituary”

£1 – £100 using Time of first goal market on betfair “Obituary”

Absolutely devastated that it took 31 minutes for Man City to score. My life is in tatters and in a fit of vengeful rage I backed 1st half Over 0.5 goals in the Crvena Zvezda v AC milan with Paddy Power using my last £1.87 (they wont let me put more than a fiver on anyway) boosting it to 1.4 with my last odds boost – That will show them !!

Beat The Drop My Free Entry No2

After Falling at the second question last time This is the account of my second try at Paddy Powers infuriatingly difficult “Beat The Drop”
Question 1 of 12
Wolfberger v Tottenham
Will both Teams Score?

This is the 1st Leg of the 16th Finals and is being played on neutral ground Puskás Aréna (Budapest) due to europe spitting their dummy out and closing borders to our sportsmen and women. How children behave eh?
Tottenham have played 6 games and have only failed to score once which was in the game v Antwerp, Wolfsberger have also played 6 games (unsurprisingly) and have failed to score twice (in both legs against Dynamo Zagreb)
Even though Wolfsberger is billed at home the stats should be taken into consideration for 2 away teams (in my view), They do seem to score most of their goals in the second half (73% of Wolfsberger AC’s goals have been scored in the second half) and have scored in 88% of their away matches (Austria – Bundesliga). They are currently 6th in the Austria – Bundesliga.
Tottenham have a 50% clean sheet rate from all their europa league games but more importantly have a 0% rate when playing away (ie they concede every time they have played away so far) Tottenham have scored in 73% of their away matches (premiership) They are currently 9th in the Premiership Table.

I have Lumped all £1000 on both teams scoring.

Bet 4 £1 – £100 Using Betfair’s Time of First Goal Market

Bet 4, Is it too much to hope for a 3rd time run with Manchester City. They are being hosted by Everton tonight in what should be, hopefully, an exciting end to end goal fest 🙂
Man City have scored 21 goals this season while playing away and 10 of these were scored in the first 30 minutes. Everton have shown that while at home they cant score in the opening stages (0-15 mins) They have scored 6 from their 16 home goals in the 16th to 30th minute of games. Something tat is not in my favour with this bet is that neither teams concede much in the early stages. When up against teams of equal league standing as their opponents, Manchester City can score early goals as in the New year clash with Chelsea when 2 goals were scored in the 1st 30 mins. Everton also have the ability to score and concede early against teams higher in the league such as Man Utd (19 and 25 mins) Chelsea (22 Mins) Liverpool (3 and 19 mins) Leicester City (10 and 16 mins)
The bets will be divided up as follows:
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.7 Stake £1.37
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.6 Stake £1.40
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.0 Stake £1.08
This will give a profit of £2.50 should anyone score in the first 30 mins
I am still not able to put these bets on directly with Betfair as the individual stake is still less than £2.00 so onto the trusty Bet Angel software