Ladbrokes must be nervous about sticking another no hoper treble up so have gone for 2 odds on matches and an even money away game, so they are just making it look more punter friendly. Price offered by Ladbrokes is 3.75 from 3.5 If you create this treble on Smarkets you will get 4.0 but there is 2% commision to pay if it wins. Just a quick note – If you create this treble with Ladbrokes you will get 3.70 so where they get 3.5 from is anyone’s guess, although a boost from 3.7 to 3.75 is a bit pathetic to look at on the screen.
Anyway to business, Chelsea host Newcastle and victory tonight would displace out of form Liverpool, who incidentally have only gained one point more than Newcastle from the last 8 games. Chelsea have comfortably beaten all the teams at the lower end of the premiership with the exception of West Brom. It is hard to oppose Chelsea tonight but then it was harder to oppose Man Utd yesterday!
Athletic Bilbao are away to Cadiz and would presume that this is the match Ladbrokes are relying on to snatch your cash. Bilbao are 11th in the league, Cadiz 15th. Bilbao, when playing away this season have scored just 6 points from the 10 games planting them firmly in the bottom spot of the “Away” table. Cadiz, in fairness, don’t fair much better when at home by earning just 10 points from 11 home games. Lost games and draws seem to plague Bilbao when playing bottom third league sides and I will be surprised should they pull a victoy out of this hat tonight.
Gent! What a beautiful city. I used to play Rugby in “Ghent” every Sunday when I was serving in Dusseldorf in the late 80s’. Their football seems to be a bit mediocre at the moment however. Hosting 16th place Mouscron should be a matter of course and odds of 1.44 for a home win do amplify this, but recent form would contradict this as Mouscron are slightly ahead in terms of points earned from the last 8 games.
Gent have two Draws against the 15th and 14th placed sides and a 1-2 loss when they hosted 13th Place Kortrijk (If anyone knows how to pronounce that good for you) The odds are too short for the recent form and instead of putting money on this treble I will probably Lay Gent on the exchange for half the risk.
Good luck with any bets you choose to make but these odds are too short for my taste
Author Archives: shakey775
£1 to £100 post just been updated
Click the link to get the Prices and stakes
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
Wolves, Celtic and Brentford All to Win
Ladbrokes have Boosted this little trio to 8.5 (15/2) from 7.5 (13/2), as with all bookies boosted bets caution should be exercised as we should assume that they know something we don’t.
First up then is the Premiership clash Southampton v Wolves game, kicking off at 12:00
Southampton’s recent home form (Last 4 home games) in the league reads as follows LLWD with the win being against the mighty Liverpool but with only 2 goals in those 4 matches they seem to have lost some drive. Wolves don’t seem to be faring much better with 2 losses and 2 drawn matches from their last 4 away games, they too are short on goals, with only 3 being scored and all of those in the 3-3 draw with Brighton. Away wins for Wolves against Arsenal (one place above Southampton) and Leeds Utd (2 places above Southampton) and Sheffield Utd (Flat Bottom) are the only “green” on a sea of red having been defeated when away, number no less than 6. Southampton have managed to keep a clean sheet in 55% of home games in contrast to Wolves 27% and actually failing to score in 55% of their away games. Wolves have conceded the biggest majority of goals in the 1st 15 minutes of the second half. With Odds of 3.3 for wolves to win the bookies don’t think they will Win either.
On to the Scottish Premiership where 2nd place Celtic are away to 8th place St Johnstone. A typical 1st quarter all out attack by Celtic may well be thwarted by St Johnstone’ s ability to somehow keep their opponents from scoring in the first 30 minutes or so. (In the 1st 30 minutes of all home games St Johnstone have only conceded 2 goals) Celtics goalscoring prowess comes to the fore however, as they seem to score more goals in the last 15 minutes netting the ball 13 times in this time segment in all away matches. Celtic’s ability to win this game is undisputed and Away win odds of 1.61 reflect this
Brentford are going to want to reclaim their top spot in the Championship League after Norwich scored a rash of goals yesterday against Stoke City and recent form supports this outcome unequivocally having won all but one of their last 8 games which was a 1-1 draw away at Swansea (another in-form team) Brentford enjoy scoring early goals and will, undoubtedly put Barnsley on the back foot should this happen in this game. Their previous meeting back in November ended well for Brentford winng the away fixture 0-1.
These are all lunchtime fixtures and I apologise for my tardiness this morning. If you have already staked money on this boosted bet I sincerely hope that Wolves and Co. do the business for you. As for my Part I won’t and can’t (Max stake still £0.00 🙂 ) be risking my money
Good luck whatever you decide.
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
Bet No 2 won thanks to a 23rd-minute penalty
With most of my bookmaker accounts having restricted stakes imposed on them this exercise would be impossible for me to accomplish. I started this with the Swansea v Man City game on 10th Feb 2021
Using a dutching calculator, worked out the separate stakes needed to win an equal profit from the 3 bets representing the first 30 minutes
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.3 Stake 37p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 36p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.0 Stake 27p
Anyone wondering how I managed to get small stakes on I used a tool called BetAngel Basic which is a free trading software. and a very useful tool it is too
it can be downloaded from here
Post Update
Manchester City was again the match of choice to progress through…
View original post 155 more words
Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win
Crystal Palace can always be relied on not to deliver 🙂
Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 10.0 (9/1) to 11.0 (10/1). Norwich are the only odds on favourite of the trio and I will start with them.
Norwich will be looking to reclaim their top spot in the championship with a win against 9th placed Stoke City. Norwich, at home, have won 2 (Bristol City 2-0 Barnsley 1-0) and drawn 2 (Middlesbrough 0-0, QPR 1-1) while skoke have a 100% draw rate in their last 4 away games suggesting a worrying pattern perhaps for Norwich City. Their defeat at the hands of Swansea last week may just have knocked their confidence a trifle. Norwich however are not without ability and have managed 12 points from 8 games while Stoke have only topped up their points total by only 6 in the same number of games. Away defeats for Stoke when playing top of the league sides do seem to have…
View original post 469 more words
£1 to £100 using “Time of 1st Goal” market on Betfair.
With most of my bookmaker accounts having restricted stakes imposed on them this exercise would be impossible for me to accomplish. I started this with the Swansea v Man City game on 10th Feb 2021
Using a dutching calculator, worked out the separate stakes needed to win an equal profit from the 3 bets representing the first 30 minutes
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.3 Stake 37p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 36p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.0 Stake 27p
Anyone wondering how I managed to get small stakes on I used a tool called BetAngel Basic which is a free trading software. and a very useful tool it is too
it can be downloaded from here
Post Update
Manchester City was again the match of choice to progress through to the next level
£1.66 being Dutched on the first goal between the first 30 minutes markets on Betfair Exchanage
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.7 Stake 60p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.7 Stake 60p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.2 Stake 46p
In the 23rd Minute Rodri scored from the penalty spot and I got paid ( at the end of the match) 🙂
In the calculation software I Inputted a 2% commision rate (I am on the basic package couldn’t see the point of paying 5% and not getting any benefits 😉 ) Any way I only ended up paying 1.68% of my total winnings of £1.19 (£2.39 – 60p – 60p = £1.19) This was 2p
I am now £1.37 in profit so with my starting quid £2.37 goes on the next match
Post Update 13:33 14 Feb 2020
Going to stake £2.37 on the West Brom v Man Utd Game at 2:00pm
Using the trusty dutching calculator from Oddsmonkey determine the following stakes
Time chunk 0-10 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 86p
Time Chunk 11-20 minutes Odds 4.5 Stake 86p
Time Chunk 21-30 minutes Odds 6.0 Stake 65p
Keep everything crossed 👍🤞🤞🤞
A 2nd Minute goal from West Brom secured bet No 3 for a profit of £1.48
Add this to the £2.37 previous profit gets a total of £3.85
Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Norwich all to Win
Ladbrokes have boosted this treble from 10.0 (9/1) to 11.0 (10/1). Norwich are the only odds on favourite of the trio and I will start with them.
Norwich will be looking to reclaim their top spot in the championship with a win against 9th placed Stoke City. Norwich, at home, have won 2 (Bristol City 2-0 Barnsley 1-0) and drawn 2 (Middlesbrough 0-0, QPR 1-1) while skoke have a 100% draw rate in their last 4 away games suggesting a worrying pattern perhaps for Norwich City. Their defeat at the hands of Swansea last week may just have knocked their confidence a trifle. Norwich however are not without ability and have managed 12 points from 8 games while Stoke have only topped up their points total by only 6 in the same number of games. Away defeats for Stoke when playing top of the league sides do seem to have a trend with the exception of reading which they won 0-3 Norwich have some good wins under their belt when playing mid table sides winning to nil against Bristol City, Cardiff City and Barnsley. I would think that on previous form Norwich should win this but not until the last quarter of the game where they seem to score most of their goals.
Cardiff City are hosting Penalty Plagued Coventry City today and should be an interesting game. With home odds of 2.1 Ladbrokes are being the most generous bookie with most others offering 2.0 – 2.05. This does actually look a promising leg of the treble as Coventry City do seem to be prone to conceding goals through penalties with no less than 7 being awarded against the Sky Blues since September, suggesting a defensive weakness that Cardiff may take advantage of, turning the tables on their 1-0 defeat last November when these two teams last met. It does look like a win for Cardiff would put them nearer safety and into the top half of the Championship League. Coventry are far from safe, and desperation causes mistakes which they have proved they make!
As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Ladbrokes are offering 2.60 (0.15 more than William Hill as I mentioned in my previous post https://bet-or-not.com/2021/02/13/rangers-crystal-palace-and-watford-all-to-win/ ) on a home win against 3.0 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.
This treble is as always a risk as it has been boosted by the bookie (always suspect!!)
As Ladbrokes have imposed a maximum stake of £0.00 on my account I will not be taking the risk myself (Yes that’s right A BIG FAT ZERO! they live in fear of me 🙂 )
The best of Luck with whatever you decide 🙂
Rangers, Crystal Palace and Watford all to win
First up Today is William Hills Super Odds – Saturday 3pm Treble
Max stake on this is a fiver and this on its own suggests to the unsuspecting punter that the bookie is frightened that the bet will win. Whereas if you scroll down the page a bit to the enhanced Odds section bigger odds specials exist with no stake restrictions!!
Enough bookie psychology, down to facts
Rangers are flying high at the top of the Scottish Premiership and host 10th place (out of 12) Kilmarnock. The goalscoring ability of rangers at present are with out precedence, managing an average strike rate of 3 goals per match when playing at home, Kilmarnock do struggle a little as they have only managed to score 9 goals away this season. Odds for a rangers win today are 1.15 with Hills. That is quite a carrot on the end of the stick. I will skip Crystal Palace for a minute and look towards the other short priced selection.
Watford are also at home today to Bristol City, will want to collect some points today after a three match streak of only picking up 2 points with goalless draws against Coventry City and Millwall and perhaps an inexcusable defeat at the hands of QPR. 3 points today will keep them level with Reading (who are likely to beat Millwall today) in that all important promotion play-off zone. Watford’s home record while playing mid table teams such as Bristol are Mostly wins with two notable losses One against QPR as I mentioned above and the other against Cardiff City in one of the few matches where Watford failed to score at all. Bristol City on the other hand undoubtedly struggle against teams from the top of the table when away losing to Brentford (3-2), Norwich (2-0), Reading (3-1) and Bournemouth (1-0).
Watford’s defensive posture is second only to Swansea having conceded only 20 goals from 28 games played (Swansea have only conceded 15!). While their offensive record is similar to Bristols, having scored 31 goals to Bristols 29 from the same number (28) of games. Watford seem to be quick goal merchants catching their opponents off guard at the beginning of halves as they, when playing at home, scored 6 in minutes 0-15 and 7 in minutes 46-60. Bristol do have a bigger proportion of conceded goals when away in minutes 0-15 so a big possibility of a morale destroying goal by Watford would Indubitably help their cause.
As with all trebles the bookies need a matches where they can quite honestly say that all selections are favourites but one which is perhaps not equally favourite as it two cohorts. In this treble this place of honour goes to Crystal Palace who host Burnley. Hill are offering 2.45 on a home win against 3.1 for the away win implying low confidence. Crystal Palace have conceded more goals this season than Burnley by a 10 goal margin however they do have an average of above 1 (1.6) goals scored per match. Neither team are confident “goal getters” and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring contest. Burnley will want at least 1 point from this game if not all three and need them to keep their heads above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have a 27% scoreline of 1-1 when at home while a further 27% of scorelines have resulted in losses. Burnley’s away however, record 45% win or draw scorelines (3 x 0-0 and 2 x 0-1)
This game may well be won or lost in the last 15 minutes as Palace have conceded 6 goals in minutes 76-90 this season when playing at home.
This treble has been boosted from 3/1 (which is very generous as should you put these games into a treble on your betslip you would get 7/2!!) to 5/1
these are the facts and you can make up your own mind
Good Luck with whatever you Decide
Preston, Hearts and RB Leipzig All to Win
Ladbrokes are again offering dismal odds on this Treble of 7.0 (6/1) boosted from 6.0 (5/1), If you must put money on these three winning go to Smarkets where you will get 8.2 (at the time of writing this) Preston are away to Blackburn Rovers in a derby with no fans. A win for Preston would see them level on points with Blackburn but Blackburn will still have a game in hand having played only 27 games so far to Preston’s 28. On form, the 2 teams are pretty even with Blackburn earning 11 points from the last 8 games to Preston’s 10 points. Preston doesn’t have a bad record when playing teams in the upper half of the league when playing away. A convincing 3-0 win against 5th place Reading and 3-2 win v 6th placed Bournemouth, however, are a little overshadowed by defeats at the hands (or feet) of 14th placed Luton Town (3-0), 12th placed Barnsley (2-1) and 19th Placed Rotherham (2-1) 6 days ago. Unfortunately, Preston seems to have a problem when they have conceded an early goal, and Blackburn has scored 15 – 1st half goals this season and can quite obviously administer the coup de gras by scoring the same number of goals in the last 15 minutes when the opposition heads are down. Blackburn on the other hand has drawn against teams in similar league positions and wins against league teams Barnsley down to QPR (13th to 16th). Ladbrokes themselves offer odds of 3.75 for Preston against odds of 1.87 for Blackburn.
Onto the Scottish Championship now, where league leaders Hearts take on Queen of the South. When these two met on the 12th Dec 2020 the score was 6-1 and was one of 12 wins so far from 15 games. They have scored in every match played this season but only have 4 clean sheets and these were against, in date order, Alloa, Greenock, Raith Rovers and Ayr Utd.
This, even though they are away tonight would undoubtably be the banker of the trio!
The Bundesliga’s Leipzig, currently 2nd in the league, are at home to Augsburg. A void of 19 points separate these two sides which isnt surprising as Leipzig have earned 14 points from the last 8 games compared to Augsburgs 6 points. If we look at just home games for Leipzig they have 25 points from 10 games played while Augsburg playing away 9 times have just 11 points to their name. Without doubt Leipzig are a strong home side having scored in every home game bar one which was againt Koln which ended in a 0-0 draw. Leipzigs odds of 1.25 to win make this another leg Ladbrokes expect to lose on. The big question therefore is are you willing to stake money on an out of form Preston beating a slightly more (not much) in form Blackburn away with no fans?
Better Not!
Abraham 2+ shots on target & Hudson-Odoi 1+ shot on target
Todays dissection comes from the Barnsley v Chelsea F.A.Cup tie being played tonight. Sky bet has boosted this bet from 3.5 (5/2) to 6.0 (5/1) (Well it is called the “Double Up Boost”).
The helpful people at Skybet added this to the bet description
- Abraham has performed well in the FA Cup this season, scoring a hat-trick in the last round against Luton
- Hudson-Odoi’s form has improved under Tuchel and he’ll continue to look to impress here
As ever this is undoubtedly true but I will dig a little deeper and see what turns up 🙂
Firstly, lets have a peek into Mr Abraham.
William Hill did a similar Boost involving just Abraham in the Wolves Game on Jan 27 for which I did a blog on (click the link below and it will open in a new window)
Tammy Abraham to have OVER 2 shots on target
He played for 13 minutes in that game!! and I will revise my opinion on what the odds should have been boosted to – to 100/1 🙂
Chelsea have played 3 games since then winning all 3. In the first game v Burnley He played for 45 minutes having just one touch in the box – no blocked shots, no shots on target – not even a shot at all!!? In the Tottenham game however, it was completely different – He didn’t play at all!!
Another no show v Sheffield begs the question, Does he still play for Chelsea? 🙂
Callum Hudson-Odoi’s F.A. Cup career this season is 1 appearance and 1 substitution appearance totaling 100 minutes on the pitch and having an average 0.9 shots on target per 90 mins. With no shots on target in the last round of the F.A. Cup v Luton and only 20 minutes on the pitch ironically it was Tammy Abraham that had 3 shots on target finding the back of the net with all of them! Morecambe was Chelsea’s 4th round tie and with a total of 80 minutes played, Hudson-Odoi scored in the 49th minute with his only shot on target. In the 3 matches mentioned above, the Burnley game saw him playing for 73 minutes and 1 shot on target. His spell of 65 minutes against Tottenham yielded zero shots on target from 3 shots at goal and, with only 28 minutes left of the Sheffield game came on from the bench to have absolutely no bearing on the match at all!
It does seem that these two guys spend more time off the pitch than on it and apart from a brief flare of eye-popping awesome play, thats all they have.
This bet would make a good twilight zone story 🙂
Betornot 