Author Archives: shakey775

Trading Tennis No.2 Break of serve near the end of set

Yesterday I looked at trading a tennis match on just the first game of the first set in a tennis match. Today I will look at the risk to reward of a trade where, when the conditions are right, we can lay the favourite if he/she is serving for the 9th game and the scores are 4 games each in the first set. As I explained in the first post in this series we get the biggest movement of odds when a break of serve occurs in a set or match. If we look at a more critical stage of a match such as the later stages of the first set where the scores are level after the 8th game then if the favourite is serving the 9th game and his/her opponent can break the serve then they would be serving to win the set in the next game. I will use Bet Angels Tennis Trader feature to demonstrate this a little more clearly than just quoting numbers. In the screenshot below I have manually set the score to 4-4 in the first set of the first round match of the French Open between Nadia Podoroska and Jessika Ponchet. Podoroska is the favourite to win this match and will probably start the match at odds of somewhere around 1.75. If the first set reaches 4 games all then Tennis Trader project her odds to be around 1.78 (the figure ringed in the set matrix)

If Podoroska wins this service game then her odds would move in to 1.66, a movement of 12 ticks. If however Ponchet can break the serve at this critical stage of the set then she would then be serving for the set in game 10 and Podoroskas odds would move significantly the other way to somewhere around 2.88. This is a movement of around 65 ticks. We can now determine a trading strategy based on these two outcomes of the 9th game and place a trade accordingly knowing our potential loss or profit. Because the biggest movement in these two scenarios are upwards in terms of ticks then we would be looking to LAY Podoroska just before the start of the game. As we are putting our trade into the market during in-play we have to take account of the fact that betfair imposes a 3 second delay from when we place the lay bet to when it actually enters the market. While this shouldnt be a problem with high volume markets it could be a problem with markets that have low liquidity so this is one of the factors we should address when we are framing the trade – if there is low liquidity we may not getour lay bet matched. This aside we can work out our risk to reward in the following way.
If we LAY Podoroska at odds of 1.78 for a stake of £10 then our Liability would be £7.80
If Podoroska goes on to win the game then we would have to trade out of the match by backing her at odds of 1.66 for a stake of 10.72 so our loss on this trade if podoroska wins the game would be in the region of 72p
If Ponchet breaks Podoroska’s serve then with the same lay bet in place we would, at the end of the game , be able to place a back bet on Podoroska at odds of 2.88 for a stake of £6.18 giving us a profit of around £3.74 so our risk to reward would be 72p loss or £3.74 profit.
These figures might be a bit bewildering and you might wonder how I came by them. The answer is simple I used a lay bet calculator freely available across the internet in particular I used the free hedging calculator on https://www.goalprofits.com/hedging-calculator/

I looked at 188 matches last week and set betangel to automatically trade a match where this scenario met the conditions above ie
The favourite must be serving for the 9th game
The game scores must be 4-4
I also added another condition that the odds of the favourite at the start of the 9th game must be between 1.5 and 1.9
Of the 188 matches only 5 met the criteria and 2 of these trades saw the favorite’s serve broken.
If you want to learn more about automating trades such as these using bet angel you can download a trial copy by clicking this link

Trading Tennis No 1 The break of service. Analysis of Match highlighted

Yesterday saw the first post of a new series of posts highlighting the risk to reward options of various tennis trades. In this post I outlined 4 possible trades that were available to us on the very first game of the fist set. To visit this post click on this link.

The image below is a screenshot of the flashscore site showing the result of the first game and how it was won.

As you can see Bronzetti won this game breaking Grabhers service after 2 break points. The image below is the set matrix shown in yesterdays post and I have ringed the end of set odds.

There is another feature of Bet Angel that can help us analyse our trades and this is an ability to log each players odds at whatever intervals you wish throughout the match. This enables you to see the way the odds moved as each point is won or lost. I have provided a screenshot of the 1st 6 1/2 minutes of the 1st game below.

The time elemnts of this spreadsheet are actual time ie 12:24:11 pm and if you follow the odds for Bronzetti which in this case are logged every 30 seconds you can see that her odds in the first game after 6 minutes play (12:30:14) they bottomed out at 1.39. In the next screen shot I have added the scores and you can see that when Bronzetti won a point her odds dropped and when Grabher served her 2 points that she won the odds rose slightly

Yesterday I outlined 4 different trades that we could have done on this first game in the match and Trade 2 had the best risk to reward option for us. The odds for Bronzetti to win the match at the time of writing yesterdays post was 1.74 however this was at 7 am – 5 hours before the start of the match. When the match finally started at 12:24 pm her odds had dropped to 1.69. Tennis Trader predicted that if Bronzetti won the game then her odds would be around 1.44 they actually reached 1.39.

If you missed yesterdays post click this link to have a look

In this case our best trade option won out and we profited by it Please subscribe to my blog if this has peaked an interest in trading tennis as I will be sharing lots more opportunities for making educated decisions on trading tennis matches and its more exciting than laying the draw in a football match.

If you are interested in trying Bet Angel you can download a free trial by clicking here to take you to the Bet Angel website I reccommend it and it wont cost you a penny.

Trading Tennis Matches

Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

Trading tennis might be quite daunting at first but when you actually look at some key points in tennis matches this can be a great introduction into the bewildering world of sports trading. There are so many opportunities to make (and lose) money in this activity, that many “match bettors” that have made the progression from having their betting accounts “gubbed” to gravitating to the only real option left open to them in their betfair account.
With there being so many markets available every day and so much “advice” being forced on naive beginners, many lose money and therefore lose interest.
In this series of blog posts I will aim to point out some of the more obscure trading opportunities I have discovered which are of less risk and more reward. Sports trading is a risk, and while you are never putting your full stake at risk there is always the greater probability that the trade will go against you and you will have to trade out of the market for a loss. This can be for a variety of reasons, lack of knowledge and lack of research being just 2. Many beginners to trading will perhaps watch a couple of YouTube videos where the presenter makes trading look so easy and lucrative that they just jump into a similar market that was shown and try and do exactly the same with catastrophic consequences.
As a potential trader you must have, at the very least a working knowledge of how various markets behave. Tennis, to my mind, could be the sport where this can be learned quite easily and with a relatively low risk to your stake.

Trading Tennis No 1 Break of Serve

Trading Tennis No 1 The break of service

Tennis markets are primarily driven by what is actually going on in the match itself. Unlike football markets which flow in a determined direction and only react after a goal is scored, tennis markets can fluctuate wildly to the uneducated eye but there are certain points within tennis matches that can present us with a good “low risk high reward” opportunities. One of these points is the break of serve. There are always breaks of serve in tennis matches – that is how they are won or lost but finding the right point to make a trade needn’t be rocket science.
At this point I must make it clear that I have a distinct advantage as I have a subscription to a piece of software called Bet Angel and this particular, and at the present time subsequent posts on this subject, come from watching and understanding videos made by the founder of the software, Peter Webb.
Knowing at what point to try and trade a break of serve and how to gain the maximum profit or lose the minimum loss can be determined by oberving countless tennis matches and noting the odds of each player at each point of the game and building your own giant database which might be ready to use in perhaps 10 years or you could use a feature of bet angel called Tennis Trader.
The figures I have used below are from Tennis Trader and are from the WTA Rabat2023 Final being played today at 12:00 between Julia Grabher and Lucia Bronzetti, and at the time of writing this blog the Match odds are Bronzetti 1.74 and Grabher 2.35 giving a near perfect “book” of 100.5%. This fact is however irrelevant as we are just interested in who is the favourite and the possibilities of what could happen in the course of the first set. Using Tennis Trader I am going to investigate various scenarios where a break of serve happens and what effect it would have on the market and the risk to reward. Below you will see a screenshot of the Tennis Trader Set Matrix for the first set which when calibrated to the match gives a fair representation of how the market would behave.

If we assume that Grabher is serving first and she wins her first game then the odds for her to win the match would move from 2.35 to 2.21 giving just a 6 tick move but if Bronzetti breaks her serve in the first game then her odds would move out to 3.29 this is a move of 39 ticks. The odds for Bronzetti in the same instances would be as follows
Bronzettis odds if Grabher holds serve 1.74 to 1.83 – 9 ticks
Bronzettis odds if Grabher loses her serve 1.74 to 1.44 -30 ticks

In money terms as a trade using £10 stakes for both back and lay bets and “Greening” or hedging the trade at the end of the game (remember tennis is split into games sets and matches dont get confused when i say end of game – it means the end of the present game – not the entire match) the following scenarios would produce the following profit and losses.

TRADE OPTION 1
We BACKED Grabher at odds of 2.35 – Liability £10 potential Profit £13.50 less 2% commission.
Grabher Won the game: We hedged our stake at odds of 2.21 with a lay bet of £10.61 – after commission we gained 40p
Grabher Lost the game: We Traded out our stake at odds of 3.29 with a lay stake of £7.10 – We lost £3.02.
The risk to reward on this trade would be lose £3.02 or win 40p

TRADE OPTION 2
We BACKED Bronzetti at odds of 1.74 – Liability £10 Potential profit £7.40 less 2% commission.
Grabher Won the game: We hedged our stake at odds of 1.83 with a lay bet of £9.53 – after commission we lost 65p
Grabher Lost the game: We Traded out our stake at odds of 1.44 with a lay stake of £12.15 – We Won £1.91
The risk to reward on this trade would be lose 65p or win £1.91
As you can see the most we would have lost would have been £3.02 roughly a third of our stake in the first scenario or 65p in the second scenario.
The most we would have won is £1.91 in the second scenario as opposed to 40p in the first scenario.
Peter Webb refers this to “Framing a Trade” which is to say you can determine your potential for losses and gains and so determine the better strategy.


If we now look at the same game but we LAY our players at the onset of the game.
TRADE OPTION 3
We LAY Grabher at odds of 2.35 for a stake of £10 making our liability £13.50
Grabher Won the game: We hedged our stake at odds of 2.21 with a BACK bet of £10.63 – We LOST 63p
Grabher Lost the game: We Traded out our stake at odds of 3.29 with a lay stake of £7.14 – After commission We Won £2.80.
The risk to reward on this trade would be lose 63p or win £2.80
TRADE OPTION 4
We LAY Bronzetti at odds of 1.74 for a stake of £10 making our liability £7.40
Grabher Won the game: We hedged our stake at odds of 1.83 with a BACK bet of £9.43 – We WON 53p after Commission
Grabher Lost the game: We Traded out our stake at odds of 1.44 with a BACK stake of £12.08 – We LOST £2.08.
The risk to reward on this trade would be lose £2.08 or win 53p

The scenarios above each have their merits and pitfalls and this is the essence of framing a trade so that you have the potential for a maximum gain against a minimal loss.
With this particular trade strategy where the players are priced similarly to this and the Favourite is not serving first then we could lose 3 out of 4 of these trades and still bet at a break even point in our money. getting a 50% strike rate would see us building our bank nicely to increase our stakes steadily as our bank grows.
The screenshot below depicts the scenario of Bronzetti serving first in the first set and if you compare the differences you will see that the odds predicted by Tennis Trader are slightly different from that of Grabner serving first. This highlights the need to do some basic research before we jump into trades and knowing our entry and exit points

There are other basic factors which should be taken into consideration such as the playing surface – On grass courts the speed of the ball at serve is quicker and the bounce lower making return of serve just that little bit harder than on clay courts which are slower and the bounce higher giving a better chance of return serve
Gender also can play a big part in the way you frame your trades. Ladies tennis matches tend to see a greater number of breaks of serve than in mens matches.

The match highlighted today was picked at random and if you read this post before the match starts try watching the first game just to see which scenario played out and which scenario you would have traded.
As with all trading and betting systems the risk is always present and you should fully understand how any market works before jumping in with both feet. Having said that however this is a trading opportunity which has a relatively low risk attached to it and as such could be pursued after doing some sample trades on paper. Tennis Trader can be an invaluable tool in this but these trades are entirely possible with just a little caution and research.

Next post will look at doing the same sort of trade but further into the set when there can be more movement in the markets which we can benefit from while keeping our risk to a minimum.
If you want to keep abreast of this trading series and how well the trades go please subscribe to my blog to receive these posts as I produce them.

If you are more interested and want to try betangel software please click this link below where you can download a trial copy of the full package. The software has a practice mode where by you can place trades into the markets without any risk to your betfair bank.

Download a free trial of bet Angel here

Links to other posts in this series

Tennis Trading No.2 Break of Serve near end of Set
Tennis Trading No.3 Dutching A Tennis Match

Should we follow the Racing Post selections that are in CAPITALISED in the race preview?

The Racing Post, a respected and some would say a vital part of British and Irish racing. The content of the paper and on line version of the only real guide to days racing is second to none but should we do our own research or just back the runners that are in BOLD in the race preview that can be found on many betting sites. I think that the Racing Post has a reputation to uphold so why would bookmakers willingly put the racing post preview at the head of the race page. Sceptical attitudes may say that if the bookies are willingly publishing these views by “Verdict” from the racing post then statistically they (the bookies) will win over all. Todays meetings come from Bellowstown, Kempton, Doncaster, Uttoxeter, Stratford, and Chelmsford City.

Looking for Level Stakes profit to £1.00 stake for all races
Lets see how they get on.

First meeting in order of timing today is Bellewstown
13:20 Fast Tara (Abandoned)
13:55 Master Garvey (Abandoned)
14:30 Ten to Ten (Abandoned)
15:05 Escapingthejungle (Abandoned)
15:40 Tawaazon (Nap) (Abandoned)
16:15 Theonewedreamof (Abandoned)
16:50 Star Kissed (Abandoned)

Kempton Meeting starts at 13:30
13:30 Burgar LOST
14:05 Phantom Flight LOST
14:40 Brains LOST
15:15 Aztec Empire (Nap) LOST
15:50 Fix You
16:25 Cuban Breeze
17:00 Simply Sondheim

Doncaster next and the first race goes off at 13:50
13:50 Valadero LOST
14:25 Dirtyoldtown LOST
15:00 Asjad LOST
15:35 Awaal (Nap)
16:10 Poker Face
16:45 Ribal
17:20 Aldbourne
17:50 Aone Ally

Uttoxeter
14:10 Tonto Foley LOST
14:45 Sporting Ace LOST
15:20 Corey’s Courage LOST
15:55 Blackjack Magic
16:30 Gold Emery
17:05 Had to be Hugo (Nap)
17:35 Mistral Milly

The final meeting of the afternoon is from Stratford
14:17 Beau Balko LOST
14:52 The Grey Falco (Nap) LOST
15:27 Weebil LOST
16:02 Lamanver Bel Ami
16:37 Go Steady
17:12 Banteer

The sole evening meeting is from Chelmsford City and first race goes off at 17:30.
17:30 Vitralite
18:00 Boasty
18:30 Prenup (Nap)
19:00 Iconic Moment
19:30 Beyond Equal
20:00 Pending Appeal
20:30 Heath Rise


I have annotated the Nap selections for each meetings but will list them again here
Bellowstown 15:40 Tawaazon (Nap)
Kempton 15:15 Aztec Empire (Nap)
Doncaster 15:35 Awaal (Nap)
Uttoxeter 17:05 Had to be Hugo (Nap)
Stratford 14:52 The Grey Falco (Nap)
Chelmsford 18:30 Prenup (Nap)

FreeBet if 2nd or 3rd (Wednesday 28th March 23)

Continuing my analysis of backing the favourite to earn a free bet if placed I should include Monday and Tuesdays results.
Mondays races started with the 13:45 at Lingfield and the favourite when I backed the horse at 10:28 that morning was Hiromichi

The second race was from Wincanton and again when I placed the bet The Kings Writ was favourite at odds of 4.33. He failed to place coming in 4th of 8.

Total profit for Monday was £12.50 taking the total tally to £55.00 and a free bet of £5.00 which I used on the Austria v Estonia Euro Qualifying game as a Correct Score bet on 2-1 This also Won taking the total profit upto Monday night to £95.00

Tuesday
First race was Huntingdon at 14:30 and I Backed Keplerian at odds of 4.33(fav at the time) This was a Non Runner and as I had already made a cash bet on this race I am not entirely sure if a subsequent bet would qualify for the promotion but it was the favourite Master Malcolm that won at odds of 3/1

The second promotional race from #virginbet was the 15:45 at Hexham where I backed the favourite Lewa House at odds of 3.25. Lewa House placed giving me a £5.00 free bet.

Total loss for Tuesday £5.00 but a £5.00 free bet gained
Total Tally so far Profit of £90.00 plus a new free bet to play with.

Wednesdays bets are as follows.

FreeBet if 2nd or 3rd Saturdays results

Firstly SkyBet and their CASH back if 2nd or 3rd

13:30 at Newbury saw Inneston start as favourite at 9/4. Unfortunately he could only manage 2nd. I got my fiver back as promised no loss or profit.

Next up was the 14:05 again at Newbury where Heltenham started 7/2 jt Fav after some elephant racing with the odds for Espoir De Guye and fellow jt Fav Super Six. Having backed Heltenham earlier in the morning I also got BOG which returned £22.50 netting £17.50 profit.
Finally the 15:35 at Kelso saw Forward Plan which I backed as favourite earlier in the day at odds of 11/4 was backed out of favouritism by Half Shot started at 4/1 but could only manage 3rd place earning me a £5.00 free bet

Total Profit for Friday and Saturday £42.50 plus a £5.00 free bet on #VirginBet and a £5.00 refunded stake from #SkyBet.

Money back as Cash if 2nd or 3rd

SkyBet offer a similar promotion to virginBet where they offer CASH back instead of a freebet if your chosen horse places 2nd or 3rd. Todays race is 13:30 at Newbury and is never the same race as virginbet offer so you cant hedge your bet to try and catch the race with 2 runners.
Todays race is a Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f and they dont offer BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed)
Using stats from Adrian Masseys website the following can be assumed to be true as he is meticulous when he complies his stats.
From 2003 to 2022 there were 17720 handicap hurdle races run in Great Britain of these just 29% of favourites won and 57% placed. 
Newbury has hosted 281 handicap hurdle races where just 28% of favourites won and 55% placed giving a slightly less chance here of the favourite either winning or placing here as opposed to the overall chance of 86%
It looks like SkyBet have chosen their race well in that they have a 72% chance of the favourite not winning. That being said however there is a statistical chance of you either winning or getting your cash back of 83%

I have backed the favourite Inneston at odds of 3.25 for a fiver

FreeBet if 2nd or 3rd

Following on from yesterdays post where both favourites won at odds of 3/1 and 15/2 giving me a profit of just under £25.00 Todays two races offering a freebet by #VirginBet are
Race 1 14:05 at Newbury
Race 2 15:35 at Kelso

Race 1
2 1/2 mile Handicap chase
#adrianmassey stats for this type of race read as follows
17796 bets on the favourite resulted in 30% winning and 53% placing giving an 83% chance of the favourite either winning or placing. In March this rises slightly to 84% with 31% of favourites winning. However on races run on a Saturday only 26% of favourites won and just 51% placed. Todays going is officially Soft and of the 3855 races run between 2003 and 2022 on this ground there is still an 82% chance of the favourite winning or placing. There have been 402 Handicap races run in the time frame at Newbury and 85% of favourites won or placed here.
There is very little difference between this race and both handicap hurdles of yesterday in terms of stats and will post results of Fav and price later. At the time of writing this there is no market available by #VirginBet but other bookmakers are making Heltenham favourite trained by Dan Skelton and ridden by Harry Skelton.

Race 2
3 1/4 mile Handicap chase
This distance has a 30% chance of the favourite winning and a significant lower chance of just 52% of placing but overall a 82% chance of either winning or placing. The going is good to soft with rain expected today perhaps softening the ground a bit more. The good to soft ground raises the expected place percentage to 54% leaving a 14% chance the favourite will not win or place. The present posted favourite, Forward Plan, has won over this distance on both good and soft ground pointing us toward another bet that will either win or a return in the form of a free bet.
Results will be posted later