Following on from yesterdays post where both favourites won at odds of 3/1 and 15/2 giving me a profit of just under £25.00 Todays two races offering a freebet by #VirginBet are Race 1 14:05 at Newbury Race 2 15:35 at Kelso
Race 1 2 1/2 mile Handicap chase #adrianmassey stats for this type of race read as follows 17796 bets on the favourite resulted in 30% winning and 53% placing giving an 83% chance of the favourite either winning or placing. In March this rises slightly to 84% with 31% of favourites winning. However on races run on a Saturday only 26% of favourites won and just 51% placed. Todays going is officially Soft and of the 3855 races run between 2003 and 2022 on this ground there is still an 82% chance of the favourite winning or placing. There have been 402 Handicap races run in the time frame at Newbury and 85% of favourites won or placed here. There is very little difference between this race and both handicap hurdles of yesterday in terms of stats and will post results of Fav and price later. At the time of writing this there is no market available by #VirginBet but other bookmakers are making Heltenham favourite trained by Dan Skelton and ridden by Harry Skelton.
Race 2 3 1/4 mile Handicap chase This distance has a 30% chance of the favourite winning and a significant lower chance of just 52% of placing but overall a 82% chance of either winning or placing. The going is good to soft with rain expected today perhaps softening the ground a bit more. The good to soft ground raises the expected place percentage to 54% leaving a 14% chance the favourite will not win or place. The present posted favourite, Forward Plan, has won over this distance on both good and soft ground pointing us toward another bet that will either win or a return in the form of a free bet. Results will be posted later
A disappointing 6th place yesterday so I am £2.00 down. Today I have
12:40 Meydan
Ardakan Backed at 7/1 with Betfred Placing twice in his last two outings and both time as favourite. this Marco Botti trained colt has in total started 6 times and placed in 4 of those races. This is his first time over 2 miles and just his 3 run for Botti after moving from Markus Klug’s Yard Paying on 4 places in this Dubai Gold Cup
A promotion offered by bookies that is becoming more common is the free bet if your horse comes 2nd or 3rd. This type of promotion started witha free bet if your horse finished 2nd to the favourite which encouraged punters to back non-favourite horses, can they stoop any lower? one asks. Evolving from this is the promotion free bet if 2nd or 3rd which if we really think about this the logical bet would be the favourite.
Today (24 March 2023) VirginBet are promoting two races the first is at Musselburgh at 13:50 a 2 1/2 mile handicap hurdle. Using stats from Adrian Masseys website the following can be assumed to be true as he is meticulous when he complies his stats. From 2003 to 2022 there were 17720 handicap hurdle races run in Great Britain of these just 29% of favourites won and 57% placed. At Musselburgh 32% of favs won and 57% placed. If we drill it down to distance 30% of favourites won over 2m to 2m 1furlong and 58% placed. The official going today at Musselburgh is good to soft and just 28% of favourites won on this ground and 58% placed. The figures are similar for second race of the day prize money day of the week month of the year. In all about 85% of all favourites in a handicap hurdle will either win or more likely place so again the bookies have done their homework and there is about a 58% chance that the favourite will not win but place and a 14% chance that they wont be paying out anything. In this case The favourite won and at 3/1 The SP 2nd and 3rd favourites Maimie’s Magic (5/1) and Poppy Rose (11/2) came 6th and UR respectively.
Second race that virgin are offering their free bet if 2nd or 3rd is the 16:20 at Hereford, another Handicap Hurdle being run over 2 1/2 miles as well as being on the same good to soft ground. Hereford has a slightly lower percentage of winning favourites than Musselburgh at 29% but still an 86% chance of the favourite winning or placing over all. In the case of this race the favourite won again at S.P. odds of 15/8. Both the 2nd and 3rd Favourites pulled up 2 out.
Can I do better than the professional tipsters who advertise plenty and perhaps don’t always come up with the goods? Boasting huge profits of thousands of pounds these tipsters are no more than Value bettors who rely on the concept that if you back enough horses at odds better than the exchanges are offering then you will win in the long run – of course you will is stands to reason that if you back 5 horses each at odds of 6/1 or better then you will only need one winner to be “profitable” This is all well and good when you are staking £100 per point but who actually can afford to do this- certainly not me. This for them is a business they charge upwards of £30.00 per month for their “service” which they presumably use to place their £100 bets and if they are at all savvy will promptly lay them off at the exchange. Betting for the average punter should be a pleasurable pastime, something you can enjoy and afford. To this end I will post and bet £1.00 each way on a horse once a day – Max Loss £14.00 or 3 pints of beer or a bottle of gin on Tesco club card price 👌
Friday 24th March 2023
15:00 3:00 Musselburgh
Lock Down Luke
Runner up twice from his last two outings and beaten favourite last time out when he started at 7/2 he has won just twice over hurdles from a total of 14 starts. He may well do the deed today and even start favourite again but there is danger from Faithful flyer amongst others in this race. Prudent 1 pt E/W
Paying on 4 places with all the major bookmakers except stingy #BetVictor
OLBG (Online Bookmaker Guide) produce on a daily basis the accumulated tips from the best performing tipsters on the site and publish them as viable accumulator bets. This post will list and and publish the profits or losses of these bets over the Month
First up is the “Earlybird Multisport Acca” which is available from 7am onwards Jan 1st 2023
Result
Earlybird Multisport Acca
Lost
14:00
Tottenham Tottenham v Aston Villa
👎
1.67
Won
15:50
Wrappedupinmay 3:50 Exeter
👍
1.33
Lost
18:00
PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles
👎
1.91
Won
18:00
DET Lions CHI Bears @ DET Lions
👍
1.42
Lost
08:15
Sydney Sixers Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers
👎
1.67
Won
09:00
Magda Linette to win 2 – 0 Magda Linette vs Zhibek Kulambayeva
👍
1.20
Available: 07:00 daily
This ACCA lost
Advised at 07:00 at odds of 12.02
Next Acca of the day is the Racing Each Way Lucky 15 which is available from 10am each day
Result
Each Way Lucky 15
Lost
14:16
Recorwoman 2:16 Southwell
👎
12.00
Lost
15:00
Maid Of Houxty 3:00 Catterick
👎
7.00
Lost
15:45
Thunder 3:45 Fairyhouse
👎
34.00
Lost
17:26
Brandy Station 5:26 Southwell
👎
12.00
Available: 10:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 10:00 at odds of 37128.00
A cheeky little racing Double is the next acca to be published and is supposed to be available to view from 11 am but today (1st Jan 2023) it appeared at 10:30 and was as follows
Result
Racing Double
Lost
13:20
Thunder Rock 1:20 Cheltenham
👎
2.75
Lost
15:00
Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick
👎
2.50
Available: 11:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 10:30 at odds of 6.86
The racing four fold is usually available at 12:00 so it could be a bit frantic to get the bets on if the first race is close to midday. OLBG comensate for this by publishing the acca early so its best to have notifications set to on and have the app downloaded to your phone. More on this at the end of todays post.
Result
Racing 4-Fold
Won
12:10
Weveallbeencaught 12:10 Cheltenham
👍
2.00
Lost
12:55
Annie Magic 12:55 Exeter
👎
2.20
Lost
13:20
Thunder Rock 1:20 Cheltenham
👎
2.75
Lost
15:00
Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick
👎
2.50
Available: 12:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 11:00 at odds of 28.89
13:00 brings us the daily Multisport Acca which is similar to the EarlyBird Multi Sport Acca
Result
Daily Multisport Acca
Won
15:56
Manaafith 3:56 Southwell
1.50
Lost
18:00
WAS Commanders CLE Browns @ WAS Commanders
1.75
Lost
18:00
PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles
1.95
Won
14:00
Monaco Monaco v Brest
1.45
Lost
14:00
Tottenham Tottenham v Aston Villa
1.67
Lost
15:00
Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick
2.75
Available: 13:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 13:00 at odds of 37.87
The popular Football four Fold is published at 13:30 at weekends and 17:00 on weekdays – here is todays
Result
Football 4-Fold
Lost
16:00
Lyon Lyon v Clermont Foot
1.53
Lost
16:30
Chelsea Nottm Forest v Chelsea
1.60
Won
15:00
Plymouth Plymouth v Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Won
15:00
Millwall Millwall v Rotherham
1.50
Available: 17:00 weekdays | 13:30 weekend
Lost
Advised at 13:30 at odds of 6.20
Result
US Sports Acca
Lost
21:05
SF 49ers -9.50 SF 49ers @ LV Raiders
1.91
Lost
18:00
WAS Commanders CLE Browns @ WAS Commanders
1.80
Lost
18:00
PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles
1.95
Won
18:00
MIA Dolphins +2.50 MIA Dolphins @ NE Patriots
2.05
Won
18:00
DET Lions CHI Bears @ DET Lions
1.44
Won
18:00
NY Giants IND Colts @ NY Giants
1.44
Available: 16:30 daily
Lost
Advised at 16:30 at odds of 28.50
Result
Evening Multisport Acca
Lost
21:05
SF 49ers -9.50 SF 49ers @ LV Raiders
1.91
Won
21:25
GB Packers MIN Vikings @ GB Packers
1.60
Lost
01:10
MIL Bucks WAS Wizards @ MIL Bucks
1.55
Won
01:10
MEM Grizzlies SAC Kings @ MEM Grizzlies
1.59
Lost
19:45
Draw or PSG Lens v PSG
1.33
Lost
19:45
Gerwyn Price Gerwyn Price vs Gabriel Clemens
1.80
Available: 18:00 daily
Lost
Advised at 18:00 at odds of 15.67
The outcome for the first day of the study is not a good one! None of the straight Accas came anywhere near and the lucky 15 did not even have a place
If we set our stake at £1.00 for accas and 10p e/w lucky 15 then we would be £10 down so far
A Quarterfinal win in straight sets against 3rd seed Irena Begu suggests confidence on Ana Bogdan to win this semi in a similar way.
Ana Bogdan to win 2 – 1
Set Betting
50 WIN
With Ana Bogdan winning the quarters in straight sets against Begu the assumption might be that she can acomplish the same result here but Sherifs’ win in the first round in straight sets against 5th seed Bodar cannot be discounted.
Over 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
1.80
Both of these players have had straight set wins in this tournament but a couple have gone to tie breaks and with service breaks more common in Ladies tennis and that this match could well go to 3 sets an over bet might seem prudent. THIS BET WON
Out of the blue I was given a £1.00 free bet by Virginbet and I have bet the whole thing on Dandenong City vs Dandenong Thunder in Australia being over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62. If the bet comes in then I will have 62p cash.
Bet 1
I just picked my seven winners for @itv7. Don’t miss your free chance to win the jackpot #ITV7 https://itv7.itv.com/play. 18+ T&Cs apply.
Betornot 