This workbook will hopefully update (manually) after any premiership games to produce an upto date reference of key statistics for first half goals scored.
Author Archives: shakey775
Discipline yourself to make Unemotional decisions when making a bet.
“Don’t bet when you are angry”, “Don’t chase losses” these are just two examples fielded by many well meaning (and bookies who have to say it) people in the safe gambling fraternity. Both of these statements, as well as many more are very true and very good advice. But what if you are not angry, losing, or the other myriad of reasons they are saying not to bet? Its your money its up to you. However, how many times have you put money on a football match and lost? 10, 15, more? and was the decision to put the bet on a gut feeling? Or perhaps you felt that the odds for a accumulator were boosted to an unbelievable price that was impossible not to take. The fact that you lost was probably because it was an emotional decision and not based on research or the bookie only stated facts that suggested that the bet would win. This post will focus on a specific bet, or trade if you like, which is “Lay the Draw”
Whether it is a score draw or a no-score draw, in the premiership and championship leagues from 2015-2020 the percentage of all games played in this period that ended in a draw was 26% ish. 1 in 4 games ended in a draw. This means that if we laid the draw in all games we would win 3 times out of 4 – 75% strike rate – how fantastic is that? The trouble is the odds for a draw are usually about 5/2 or 3.50 in new money. This means in money terms that in a perfect world laying every draw at odds of 3.5 for the minimum bet of £2.00 on Betfair we would only win £1.00 in every 4 games and that’s without taking the 5% commission they charge on winning trades taking that off we would be left with just 60p.
The beauty about laying the draw on an exchange is that when there is a goal scored the odds on the draw can raise significantly allowing us to back the draw after the goal is scored for a guaranteed profit.
This process can be automated with the use of specialised software such as BetAngel where a lay bet is placed at the start of a football match and when a goal is scored by either team an offset bet is placed providing us with a profit on the outcome whatever happens after that. The only trouble with this strategy is when no goals are scored and the percentage of no-score draws is about 11%.
I am now coming to the crutch of the post
Research is key to all betting and sticking to certain criteria is paramount to success. To this end I have produced a flow chart, which is still in its development stage, to eliminate the emotional or “gut” decisions made in this particular strategy.
The stats I am using come free from the Soccerstats website (www.soccerstats.com) and focus on previous results and the over/under stats
A flow chart is an ideal tool to provide black and white decision making choices when looking at this type of trade or bet and is available free to download below.
It is simple to use and as I have said previously it is still in need of tweeking but the trades it has identified for tonights games (23rd Feb 22) are listed below.
I should note that LTD means “Lay the Draw” but using the software mentioned and the specific automation file provided in the following link on the betangel forum
https://forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=13663&start=45
Premiership
Burnley v Tottenham – No Bet
Watford v Crystal Palace – No Bet
Liverpool v Leeds – LTD
Championship
Derby Co v Millwall – No Bet
Fulham v Peterboro – LTD
Huddersfield v Cardiff No Bet
QPR v Blackpool – LTD
Sheffield Utd v Blackburn – No Bet
Stoke v Luton – No Bet
Italy Serie B
Benevento v Como – LTD
Brescia v Ascoli – LTD
Crotone v Cosenza – No Bet
Frosinone v Reggina – No Bet
Lecce v Cittadella – No Bet
Scot Prem
Dundee v St Mirren – No Bet
Lay the Draw then Move Profits to Home & Away Teams Guardian Automation Bot – Flow Chart
The attached word document is a flow chart to help select suitable matches to load into Betangels Guardian software to run this automation bot.
It uses the stats supplied free by soccerstats for almost all games played in the world 😲
Laying the Favourite Greyhound in May 2021
May 2021 is the worst month that I have researched so far producing a loss of over £300 for the month
Laying the Favourite Greyhound in April 2021
Not a good month again with £112.76 loss over the month however ther is light in the tunnel as If you layed the favourite that started from Trap 1 in the first 4 months of 2021 you would have a £267.36 profit
Greyhounds again
March 2021 was not a good month for the bookies
high priced favourites brought an all time loss of £121.85 laying to betfairs minimum stakes of 2 quid
Greyhounds – Laying the Favourite
As many of you might know I use a piece of software called Betangel which is a great tool for automating your bets in Betfair (and Betdaq). While I was experimenting with some greyhound markets I decided to try laying each favourite in each U.K. greyhound race. The results, whilst not life changing, were encouraging and just laying every favourite this week from Saturday for a level £1.00 stake has harvested a £20.00 profit over the 4 days. Like I say not life changing but profit is profit.
To this end I have started research into every greyhound race from last year (2021) and have produced an Excel workbook to summarise the results.
You have to remember that this is purely laying the favourite with no fancy trading involved but the information on the summary page can be manipulated to filter out scenarios such as Just laying Trap 1 if the favourite is drawn in that trap, what the Profit/Loss is laying the favourite at say 480m, etc
Anyway the worksheet can be downloaded by clicking the link below for anyone interested
Also if anyone is curious to the pros of using automated software to place your bets – or lay bets please go to Betangel.com
Why Just Big Race Trends?
With all major races the tipsters come out with the stats for the “big race trends”. Every day there are “renewals” of races in run of the mill meetings so why not research your own?
Today sees the Agetur Classic Handicap Chase being run at Warwick at 15:00 and I have started compiling some past race data for this particular meeting which is held every January.
Having looked at just the last 10 years of the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle a fact that the favourite has never won this race in this timeframe.
These stats are readily available and easy to find using the Timeform past results feature on their website and I have attached below a worksheet I have started listing just 3 of the races being run today going back 10 years
I hope that if you take the time to download it It may prove useful
Creating your own Horses to Follow list
Having just belatedly received my Jumpers to follow list for the 2021/22 season (I got it at half price) I thought that following horses halfway through the season might not be an altogether bad thing as you can see how they have done so far in the season. I then got to thinking why not make my own list but not of good prospects this season which are usually aimed at big races but day to day runners which I can back to lay in-running.
The sheer volume of horses racing each day could make this a task of monumental proportions so I started to whittle down the most prevalent horses each day, concentrating on predominately front running horses. As I subscribe to The In-Running Trading Tool I can see at a glance horses that prefer to lead races and provide a good opportunity to make small but regular profits win or lose. This, however is not foolproof, and just because it ran well and the traders backed it down to odds on in-running the last two runs doesn’t mean it will do the same this time. There are many factors that will and do change how a horse will run a race such as going, distance, a jockey change or even a stable change. This latter factor may not be as prevalent as the late great Dick Francis portrays in his most excellent novels but it does happen.
Once I have a couple of good prospects for the day I can then switch over to the Timeform website and check any pace hints that they provide for the race and if the horse is mentioned I then go to the sporting Life website where I can usually watch the horses previous races to get a feel for how it ran. Having satisfied myself that I can risk a bet I will then look at the exchange – usually betfair – and look at the price changes via the provided chart to determine whether the odds are steadily drifting out or static or starting to come in and try and judge the best time to place a small bet. Once the bet is on then I continue to monitor the odds to note any changes.
Once the bet is on I will then place a lay bet at the closest “cross-over” point (Exchange cross-over points are points in the exchange range of odds where the range of odds change and betfair describe them as follows)
“There are points in the Betfair odds system that we call “crossover points”. These are around odds such as 4.0 where the tick below is 3.95 (0.05 away) and the tick above is 4.1 (0.10 away). It often makes sense to lay at odds of 4.0 as your risk is lower than your reward over the short-term.
Because of this, you often see the market pause at price changes. Support and resistance can become imbalanced too, as lots of people are keen place their lay bets. You might also see the market spike downwards if it breaks through a crossover point, as all of the layers scurry to close out of their positions.”
I place this below the backed odds and ensure that I change the Lay from “cancel” at in-play to “keep” This will ensure that my bet lay bet will still be available once the race is off.
If the back to lay trade is successful after the race has finished or in some cases before the race is actually at post time then the horse can be added to the “Follow” spreadsheet. To make things easy and to get an alert when the horse is next running I also add it to my Timeform Tracker list which I have set up to send me a “push” notification the evening before the race as well as an email.
The information that is available for your chosen horses is vast so choosing what Information to record can be overwhelming however Excel is a truly outstanding piece of software which can be utilised for as much or as little as you think is relevant.
I have provided a workbook for anyone to download and use. It is populated with 1 horse (Best Trition) and a template sheet for you.
The front page is an index page which is handy for you to summarise and quickly access the runners record as well as
Having done all this I can now wait patiently for emails to arrive and determine the probability of a successful back to lay bet without trawling through reams of information which might sway me into a bad decision.
When you have established your “Stable” and have grown some confidence in your selections you can start to determine how far your lay bet you are willing to make away from your back bet. To help you in this I have also provided a “tick-drop” calculator. This simple spreadsheet will enable you to instantly work out the odds needed for a 10, 20 or 30 tick drop from the actual back odds taken.
For more information on back to laying horses please read my post below
Yesterdays Front Runners
Yesterdays Front runners with their BSP and in play low and the number of ticks dropped
| Wetherby | 11:50 | Top and Drop | 5.5 | 1.01 | 184 |
| Leopardstown | 12:05 | Doctor Brown Bear | 17.38 | 8.2 | 23 |
| Chepstow | 13:05 | Paint The Dream | 8.16 | 4.8 | 22 |
| Wetherby | 14:15 | Cornerstone lad | 19.35 | 7 | 33 |
| Chepstow | 14:50 | Hold That Taught | 11 | 5.1 | 31 |
| Leopardstown | 14:55 | Coko Beach | 17 | 6.6 | 31 |
| Kempton | 15:10 | Morning Vicar | 14 | 14.5 | -1 |
| Chepstow | 15:25 | Getaround | 6.8 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Kempton | 15:40 | The Widdow Maker | 12.37 | 3.5 | 54 |
| Wolverhampton | 16:40 | Aasser | 1.71 | 1.01 | 70 |
| Wolverhampton | 17:40 | Winklevi | 4.7 | 1.01 | 176 |
| Wolverhampton | 18:40 | Eponina | N.R. | N.R. | N/A |
With the exception of Morning Vicar in the 15:10 at Kempton they all traded in-play lower than their BSP.
All but 2 (Morning Vicar and Getaround) traded at least 20 ticks below BSP.
Betornot 