Trading 15 ticks – Betornot

Betting Trends at Wimbledon: Analyzing Top Seed Losses

Before the year 2000 you would have to go back to 1962 to find a player out of the top 5 seeding in the ladies tournament that won. Since and including 2000 there have only been 10 players that were within the top 5 seeding that have won the ladies tournament. Where did these players fall by the wayside and what odds on the exchange could you lay them off at?
2024 saw 31 seed Krejcikova winning the tournament with a 2-1 victory over 7 seed Paolini, but the top 10 seeds started falling out in the 1st round with the dismissal of Zheng and Vondrousova with sportsbook odds of 1.17 and 1.13 respectively. Round 2 saw 5 seed Pegula lose to unseeded Wang, her sportsbook odds were 1.25. The third round was a disaster for the seeded players with 1 seed Swiatek (Odds 1.08), 9 seed Sakkari (Odds 2.2) , and 10 seed Jabeur (Odds 1.5) all crashing out. This left just 4 of the top 10 seeded players progressing into the 4th round which also saw casualties in the form of 2 seed Gauff (Odds 1.29) and 11 seed Collins (Odds 1.44). (I have included Collins at 11 seed because No 3 seed Sabalenka withdrew before round 1 and did not play in the tournament). Both remaining top 10 seeded players, seed 4 Rybakina and seed 7 Paolini made it safely through the quarter finals but the semi finals were the limit for seed 4 Rybakini (Odds 1.2) who lost to eventual winner Krejcikova. As mentioned before Paolini was the last of the top 10 seeds to fall and became tournament runner up with match odds of 2.2.

The implications of these events warrant some serious investigation into either backing the underdog at sportsbook odds if you haven’t got an exchange account or laying the seeded player on the exchanges.

2024 Round 1 Matches

Wimbledon 1st round matches backing the underdog at £1.00 level stakes

The table above shows the results and profit had you backed the underdog with Bet365 sportsbook for a £1.00 level stake. As you can see your profit would have been £1.00

Wimbledon 1st round matches laying the top 10 seeded players.

This second table shows the results and profit achieved when laying the top 10 seeded players for a £1.00 liability at the exchange with a 0% commission If you factor in a 2% commission then the profit would be £3.02 instead of £3.25.

2024 2nd Round Matches

Wimbledon 2nd Round Backing the Underdog at £1.00 Level Stakes

In the 2nd round just 1 seeded player was knocked out and the “underdog” for the match was Wang Xin who was 3/1. Total stakes for round 2 was £8.00 producing, after Wangs’ win, a total loss of £4.00. This brings our total P/L for the tournament if we were backing the opponent of the top 10 seeded players to -£3.00.

Wimbledon 2nd round matches laying the remaining top 10 seeded players for a £1.00 liability

This table above shows the results if we had laid the remaining top 10 seed players. Our loss after 2% commission would be £3.74 giving a total loss of £3.72

2024 3rd Round Matches.

Wimbledon 3rd round matches Backing the underdog for a £1.00 level Stake

2024s’ 3rd round saw 3 of the top ten seeded players get knocked out including No 1 seed Swiatek which produced the highest individual profit of £7.00. The overall profit for round 3 backing the underdogs at Bet365 was £5.30 giving us an overall tournament profit of £2.30.

Wimbledon 3rd round matches laying the remaining top 10 seeded players to £1.00 liability

The dismissal of 3 of the remaining 7 top 10 seeded players has put our P/L back into the black with a 3rd round profit of £5.71 before commission deduction. With this factored in the 3rd round profit is £5.51 giving a tournament profit of £1.79

2024 4th Round Matches

Wimbledon 4th round matches backing the underdog at £1.00 level stakes

The dismissal of both Gauff and Collins in round 4 would have given us a level stake profit of £2.50 backing the underdog at Bet365 the retirement of both Keys and Kalinskaya ensured safe passage to the Quarter Finals of the remaining 2 top ten seeds Paolini and Rybakina. With these two wins in this round our total tournament profit for backing the underdog now stands at £4.80.

Wimbledon 4th round matches laying the remaining 4 top 10 seeds to a liability of £1.00.

Laying players at such short odds at the exchange has paid off in this round giving us an after commission profit of £3.10 adding to our tournament profit giving a total of £4.89

2024 Quarter Finals

Both of the remaining top 10 seeded players made it safely through to the semi finals reducing our Level stake profit when backing the underdog to £2.80. Laying the seeded players also had the same effect on our laying to a liability profit to £2.89 after commission.

2024 Semi Finals

Wimbledon 2024 Semi Final Matches showing the backing of the underdog at £1.00 level stakes

Paolini triumphed in her semi final match against unseeded Vekic but backing Krejcikova to win against Rybakina paid dividends producing an overall semi final profit to £1.00 level stakes at Bet365 of £2.0 giving us an overall tournament profit with just the final to play of £5.30.

Semi final matches involving the remaining 2 top ten seeded players when laying to a £1.00 liability.

Again laying the seeded player instead of backing the underdog produced a greater profit before 25 commission was deducted even with the commission subtracted the profit is £3.28 giving a total tournament profit with just the final to play of £6.17

2024 The Final.

The Final for Wimbledon 2024 where 31 seed Krejcikova beat 7th Seed Paolini 3/6 6/3 6/4

Backing the “Underdog” in the final at Bet365 produced a profit of 73p which when added to our tournament total for backing the underdog at £1.00 level stakes has given us a tournament grand total of £6.03

Laying the seeded player paid off again giving a small profit after commission of 78p

Laying the no 7 seed Paolini at odds of 2.25 has seemed the only sensible bet in the tournament given the odds of the eventual winner, Krejcikova, of 1.8 at the exchange. A profit of 78p was achieved after the reduction of 2% commission and when added to the tournament total for laying each and every one of the top ten seeded players produced an overall profit of £6.95. This is 92p more than backing the underdog at a sportsbook.

Analysis of the tournament.

Without doubt had we laid the top ten seeded players then our profit would have been more than backing the underdog at the bookmaker. However there is the fact that bookmakers need to create at least a 7% overound and we may well have benefited more by backing the underdog at an exchange especially if you have a promotional 0% commission. Without the top seeds falling by the wayside early on in the tournament the profit would have been less or even a loss might have occurred, certainly our profit was boosted by the single fact that Swiatek crashed out in the 3rd round!
Overall a success and in fact a low risk strategy. Laying to a liability of just £1.00 means that we can monitor and control any losses. We can make the lay bets in the knowledge that if we start with a small bank of just £10 and not let any emotion enter into our decisions we can keep this strategy fun.

How the seeded players faired in previous years.

2023

Top 10 Seeds

Swiatek – Lost in Round 4 (Odds 1.19)
Sabalenka – Lost in Semi Finals (Odds 1.7)
Rybakina – Lost in Quarter Finals (Odds 1.71)
Pegula – Lost in Quarter Finals (Odds 1.76)
Garcia – Lost in Round 3 (Odds 2.05)
Jabeur – Lost in The Final (Odds 1.5)
Gauff – Lost in round 1 (Odds 1.34)
Sakkari – Lost in round 1 (Odds 1.36)
Kvitova -Lost in Round 4 (Odds 1.8)
Krejcikova Lost in Round 2 (Odds 1.35)

Swiatek
Reached the 4th round where she lost to Svitolina After losing 3 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £5.26 giving a profit of £2.54
Sabalenka
Reached the Semifinals where she lost to Jabeur. After losing 5 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £1.43 giving a loss of £3.57
Rybakina
Reached the quarter finals were she lost to Jabeur. After 4 losing lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £1.41 giving a loss of £2.59
Pegula
Reached the Quarter finals where she lost to Vondrousova. After losing 4 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £1.32 giving a loss of £2.68
Garcia
Reached the 3rd round where she lost to Bouzkova. After losing 2 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won 96p giving a loss of £1.04
Jabeur
Reached the final where she lost to Vondrousova. After losing 6 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £2.00 giving a loss of £4.00
Gauff
Lost in the 1st round to Kenin. We would have won £2.94.
Sakkari
Lost in the 1st round to Kostyuk. We would have won £2.78
Kvitova
Reached the 4th Round where she lost to Jabeur. After losing 3 lay bets of £1.00 each we would have won £1.25 giving a loss of 1.75
Krejcikova
Reached the 2nd round where she lost to Andreeva. After just 1 losing lay bet of £1.00 we would have won £2.86 giving a profit of £1.86

Conclusion.

We would have lost £5.51 over the whole tournament this year if we had laid each of the top 10 seeds to the end.

2022

Top 10 seeds

Swiatek – Lost in Round 3 (Odds 1.2) – P/L £3.00
Kontaveit – Lost in Round 2 (Odds 1.50) – P/L £1.00
Jabeur – Reached the Final (Odds 1.83) – P/L -£4.80
Badosa – Reached the 4th Round (Odds 3.4) – P/L -£2.58
Sakkari – Reached the 3rd Round (Odds 1.20) – P/L £3.00
Pliskova – Reached the 2nd round (Odds 1.71) – P/L £0.41
Collins – Lost in the 1st Round (Odds 1.79) – P/L £1.27
Pegula – Reached the 3rd Round (Odds 1.57) – P/L -£0.25
Mugurusa – Lost in the 1st round (Odds 1.25) – P/L £4.00
Raducanu Reached the 2nd Round (Odds 1.70) – P/L £0.43

Conclusion

We would have Won £5.48 over the whole tournament this year if we had laid each of the top 10 seeds to the end.

Betfair Historical Data – Easy When You Know How

Betfair Historical Data has been, for some time now, openly available for free but it seems that no one is prepared to share just how you open the damned stuff!!!
There are plenty of sites out there willing to share their python knowledge but stop short of a full explanation – very frustrating.
At this point I have to give credit to “Trading The Market” guys who have finally given me the Eureka Moment!
If you follow the steps below you will soon have all the research information to back test your systems.
To begin with you do need to have a betfair account and to access which data you need you will need to be logged in and at the following page
https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home

For the purposes of this post I will be using the basic plan which costs nothing and has a data frequency of 1 minute. If you need more frequent data logs then you will have to purchase your data by the month but there are free plans available for limited months mainly in 2020.
In this post I will be analysing the data from the North London Derby – Arsenal v Tottenham on the 1st October 2022
The easy way to handle this data is to “purchase” a month at a time so I will “Buy” the Soccer data from OCT 2022
To do this simply select the plan, sport, and month you need in the drop down boxes and click “Add to Purchases” and then the “purchase” as in the screen shot below

You will then be asked to confirm your purchase – Check that you haven’t included the wrong plan by mistake as the fee will be taken straight from your betfair balance. If everything is ok click confirm and you will see the following screen.

As you can see from the screen shot there are over 250000 markets! for our research we only need 3 or 4 of these so we need to find them.
I want to know how the under/over Markets behaved when each goal went in during the match. To do this click on the “My Data” Tab as shown below and you will see your most recent purchases as well as plans you have bought before.

We now need to populate the down load fields with the information that we need so if we look at the match stats we can see that there were 4 goals scored in total.

I want to see the following market odds
O/U 1.5
O/U 2.5
O/U 3.5
O/U 4.5
O/U 5.5
O/U 6.5
and the Match.
To do this we need to populate the download files panel as follows:

In the Plan Box (which is at the top but hidden in this screen shot) enter Basic
In the Sport Box enter Soccer
In the From and Upto Boxes enter 1 Oct 2022
Leave the event ID Blank
In the Event Name box enter Arsenal
In the Market Type box select the markets you need and in this case its Match_Odds
Over_Under_25
Over_Under_35
Over_Under_45
Over_Under_55
Over_Under_65
In the Country Box select GB (There is no UK)
and in the File Type Box select M
Click the Add to Downloads button
You now should have 12 files ready to down load.
Click the Yellow Download button

You will find this file in your downloads folder as a Data “tar” file

Double click the file to un pack it in your unzipping program

Keep double clicking until you get to the actual data files

You should now see your 6 “bz2” files
To make them easy to find Create a new folder on your desktop and name it ARS v TOT

You can now drag and drop the files into this folder from your unpacking software

We now need to convert these files into a readable format and Betfair provide one such program easily available from their website.

You will find this here

https://www.betfairhistoricdata.co.uk/

The first file we want to see is the Match Odds and this will usually be the largest file as most volume would have passed through that market. In this case we are looking at File 1.203213491

These are not very user friendly file names so I am going to rename them. to do this we simply select a file from the list using the betfair Historical Data Processor as below and note the file number and which market it contains. In this case File 1.203213498 is the O/U 6.5 goals Market. We dont want to do anything else yet. We are just identifying the files for our convenience

We can then repeat the process with all the files noting the file numbers to the markets and then rename all the files as below

We are now going to convert these files into meaningful excel ranges where we can look at them in more detail. To do this we again select a file from the folder using the Historical Data Processor and click the download settings button as shown in the screenshot below

This will open the settings dialog box as shown below

We now need to populate our spreadsheet with any relevant information we will need by clicking the drop down box arrow and selecting the fields by ticking the relevant tick boxes (dont worry if you put too much info into the spreadsheet as we can delete it later)

Once you have selected what you need close the drop down box by clicking the “up” arrow and because we are just interested in the in play data slide the “preplay” button to off as shown below and click save

We are now ready to download the file as a CSV file into Excel we do this by simply clicking the “Download CSV” button as shown and let the wonders of better brains than our own do its stuff.

This will put a zipped file into your downloads folder with the original file number

If we double click this file it will unpack and be available as a csv file which we can open with excel.

It may be a good idea to move this file to a new folder on your desktop and rename it as I have done here

If we open this in excel this is what we get.

We can now start to manipulate the data to best suit our needs. We can start by removing some of the columns we dont need. I have removed the following columns to be left with the following spreadsheet.
Market ID
Selection ID

The next task is to make the published time more reader friendly. as you can see this is total jibberish, it means nothing. If you select cell A2, in the address window you will see that the full date and time is shown

So that column A shows the time in hrs and minutes we need to select hh:mm from the custom cell formats as shown below.

When we click ok then cell A2 will show the actual time of the published data for that row

To convert all the row simply select Column A and repeat

When you click ok your spreadsheet should look like this

you will notice that the times are repeated 3 times this is because there are 3 separate outcomes within this betfair market – Arsenal to win The Draw and Tottenham to win.
If we now draw our attention to Column F this is the last traded price column and we could do with tidying up this so that all the figures are shown to 2 decimal places. To do this simply select Column F and using the cell number format dropdown box, select “Number” as shown below.

Your spreadsheet should now look something like this

A bit more tidying up by changing the column headers and this is what you should be looking at.

This is your basic data spreadsheet for the entire match for the Match Odds Market You can now save it into a folder and repeat the process with the other 5 markets

In my next post I will show you how to manipulate the data so that we can see what happened in each market as each goal went in

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Making an Exchange Lay Bet and calculating your liability to use in your “Back to Lay” Trade

Making an exchange lay bet is not as simple as calculating your porential profit in a normal back bet. With a back bet you simply multiply your stake with the odds, subtract your stake and hey presto the figure left is your potential profit.
The lay bet calculation is a little bit more involved and has nothing to do with the picture above (That is just the Kelly Criteria equation for anyone who wants to look it up)
To calculate your liability (How much you would lose if the bet “won” remember with a lay bet you are betting your selection will lose) the following equation is used

Liability = (Backers stake x (Lay odds – 1)

For instance in the 15:05 at Ascot yesterday (1st Oct 2021) Chalk Stream was 3.6 to lay. You don’t think as others do and think it has no chance and want to win a tenner if it loses so you need to know how much you would lose if it wins

Liability = (£10.00 x (3.6 – 1) = 10 x 2.6 = £26.00

To win your £10.00 you stand to lose £26.00 if Chalk Stream wins.
This is the basic calculation and you would need to take off your commission from any winnings.
For instance if your Betfair commission rate is 5% then your £10.00 profit would be subject to a 5% reduction equalling 50p leaving you with a total profit of £9.50 if Chalk Stream loses and a £26.00 loss if it wins.

To make this lay bet you would need at least £26.00 in your betfair account. Things get really interesting when you need to calculate your liability when making Back to lay bets.
Lets take todays first Back to Lay selection on the In-Running Trading Tool feature.

Highfield Princess is running in the 13:30 at Ascot total (2nd Oct 2021) and is currently at 4.3 to win so we back her at that price for £10.00 – a simple no-nonsense back bet, we lose a tenner if it loses and win £33.00 if it wins.
I personally lay my “back to lay” selections at a set 15 tick “drop” from whatever price I backed. For this I use my own “Betfair tick counter” in the form of an excel spreadsheet which I made myself and is available free to download at the end of this page.
A 15 tick drop from 4.3 is 3.4 so now I need to calculate an equal profit liability lay order at odds of 3.4 so that if the horse trades in-play at odds of 3.4 I will win whatever the outcome.

To do this I simply use one of the many “Matched Bet” Calculators on the web, my favourite being Odds monkeys free bet calculator as shown below

Click the pic to go to the Oddsmonkey website

As you can see from the screen shot above if the odds in-play reach our 15 tick drop we would win at least £1.72 even if the horse loses.
As promised above my betfair tick counter is available for free download by clicking the link below. It will calculate odds required for a 20 and 30 tick drop as well as my default 15 tick drop by simply inserting the back odds into the relevant cell

betfair-tick-counter1 Download

The example shown on this page wasn’t plucked out of thin air. I subscibe to a website called In-Running Trading Tool which provides daily data on various trading strategies ranging from Back to Lay trading to “DOBBING” or Double or Bust trading on every horse running that day. Highland Princess is just one of several selections highlighted by the site for todays racing. I am currently on a 5 bet winning streak and playing with free money after taking my original stake out after the 3rd bet. These trades were as follows
28th Sept – 13:35 Ayr – Le Cheval Rapide – Trade won Horse lost
29th Sept – 13:40 Bangor-on-Dee – Robin Des Theatre – Trade won Horse lost
30th Sept – 14:00 Warwick – Friend or Foe – Trade won Horse lost
01st Oct – 13:35 Fontwell – Pasvolsky – Trade won Horse lost
01st Oct – 14:45 Fontwell – Keepyourdreamsbig – Trade won Horse lost
A full breakdown of these backed and liad bets can be seen from my downloaded excel file below
I used the minimum stake of £2.00 for the initial bet adding my profit to this each time until I had won enough to bet with just profits.

exchangebets_settled Download

To get a free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below

In-Running Trading Tool.

Todays Best Back to Lay bet of the Day

Not much time to get onto this as todays Back to Lay bet runs at 13:40 at Bangor on Dee.
Robin Des Theatre has a 25% win rate from 4 races on at 1m7f and 3 at 2m. This horse likes to lead from the front and has an average betfair tick drop of 106. Its highest BSP was 11.5 and dropped a total of 22 ticks to a in-play low of 6.2. This was its last time out at Newcastle over 2 miles on 20 march this year. Todays jockey, Brendan Powell rode it to victory in another Newcastle hurdle over 2 miles 21 days previous to that. Todays race is a 2m 1f Handicap Chase, a first for this horse but the market seems confident in the final 2 hours to post time as I backed it at odds of 16.00 and I am looking for a 15 tick drop to 9.4 to lay. With just 50 minutes to post time the market has shortened to 11.5.

The screenshot above shows the steady shift downwards and how close to my Lay order the odds got as it dipped to below 10.0 about an hour before the off.

This selection was made with the help of the In-Running Trading Tool which a free trial can be obtained by clicking the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

In Running Trading Tool “Back to Lay” with Top Tipped Horses – A Quick Summary

Saturday saw the start of a system that has shown promise, where frustration reigned in regards to well-tipped, short-priced favourites not producing winning performances. When I say Saturday I really mean that I had a 20-20 hindsight day for Friday where I had the fortune of being able to see the results as I mashed the criteria.
As you would expect, I got a 100% win rate – who wouldn’t.
The two horses concerned were Love is Golden and Jumbly
Jumbly won its race but Love is Golden definitely did not but both were low “in-play traders” making it possible to create a small profit from both runners instead of a level stake loss!
Applying the same criteria to Saturdays Top Tipped Horses I got 3 horses
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock
Loves Me Likearock won its race but the other 2 failed – miserably!
However, all three managed at least a 15 tick in play drop from their B.S.P. making the tally so far 5 out of 5 with three of the top tipped selections losing their race
Happy days so far then
Sunday gave up just 2 selections
14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips)
14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)
Minella Trump won and a B.S.P. of 1.72 soon passed the 15 tick mark after climbing to an in-play high of 2.34 the half length that it won by might have had me twitching a bit if I had been watching but a win is a win. Bigbadmattie on the other hand, despite being quite heavily tipped was not favourite and went off at a B.S.P. of 3.4 and according to Timeform traded in-play at a low of 3.2. this is just 4 ticks. However! I actually backed and laid this race and horse and my lay bet of 2.8 was matched during the race

I am going to take this as a winner for the system – It would/might have not been totally matched if the bet was more than a tenner
7 from 7 for me and only 3 from 7 as regards to outright winners from the experts.
On to today and there is just one selection that meets the criteria
14:10 Newton Abbott; Kilmington Rose
A race of just 3 runners and I have just backed it at 1.64! This will have to trade as low as 1.49 for a 15 tick drop

Please take a look at my other posts regarding this system if you want to learn more and a 7 day free trial of the In-Running Trading Tool can be got by Clicking the link below

In-Running Trading Tool

Update 100% win rate

Yesterdays Blog post “Using the In-Running Trading Tool with the Racing Press Top Tipped Horses to determine “Back to Lay” selections” gave, in some detail the workings behind narrowing down the back to lay dilemma.
Fridays selections produced a 100% success rate. So how did yesterdays selections fair
Just to remind you these were
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock

Alotaibi was forecast at an S.P. of 1.33 and you would be excused from thinking that with 10 tips from the National Racing Press “Experts” that this is surely one of those banker moments – Alas it was not to be as Wanees came home in front! However Alotaibi did have a B.S.P. of 1.85 which was 13 ticks more than the industry S.P. and reached an in-play Low of 1.4! This was in fact a 45 tick drop – more than enough to meet our requirements of 1.7 for 15 ticks and a small profit
Valley Forge with 11 tips and a NAP pushing it along and an attractive forecast S.P. of 3.00 (2/1) many a punter would think that it is “money back time” This was not to be unfortunately as Valley Forge managed just 3rd out of a field of 6. But as it turned out all was not lost as the B.S.P. was 2.51 and his in-play low dipped to 2.00 giving a tick drop of 25. This gave an in running profit of 12.8%
With 2 out of 2 losers as far as the straight punters were concerned, I on the other hand have an overall profit of 10% on my stakes.
The evening meeting at Wolverhampton and my last selection in this system was most tipped horse with 12 tips, Loves Me Likearock. Winning by just half a length very nearly made it 3 disasters for the favourite backers. Going off at 2.07 at the Betfair exchange traded to the lowest possible at 1.01 and another win for the system and finishing up 10% up on my stakes

There are just 2 selections today (5th Sept)
14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips)
14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)

The screenshot above shows the form and other stats for the two horses
To get a free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

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Todays Top Tipped Horses (Monday 30 Aug) No 1 Prop Forward

The first of todays top tipped horses is Prop Forward in the 13:30 at Wolverhampton
I have just Backed it at 2.02 on the betfair exchange for £10.00 and have put in a lay bet order for £10.98 at lay odds of 1.86 (15 ticks below 2.02)

Having run just twice the last time out at Bath the BSP was 2.28 at Bath on 4th August which it won (i-p low of 1.01) achieving a 113 tick drop. The time before that it ran at Salisbury with a BSP of 4.62 coming second with an in-play low of 1.11 – a total tick drop of 165 ticks
Its run style in both races was 1 which means that it prefers to run from the front
It has already reched odds of 1.7 meaning that before the race even started I have a 76p profit win or lose

All these stats and more are available on the in-running trading tool website Click the link below to get a 7 day free trial

In running trading tool

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3 Results

Just 2 horses finished 1st yesterday from the 10 most tipped horses and these were Finest Sound and Find both running at Yarmouth. An absolute disastrous day as far as level bet wagering was concerned, however, as in the previous 2 days there was a 100% strike rate in the 15 tick drop system. This makes it 30 for 30. In the table below you can see that there were a couple of near things but the facts remain, from the 3 days trialled I have come away with profits each day.

Horse	Meeting	Time	Tips	B.S.P.	i-p Low	15 Tick	Result
Mahanakhen Power	Yarmouth	13:30	7	3.81	1.6	3.05	2nd
Beltane	Beverley	13:55	11	2.53	1.85	2.22	2nd
Finest Sound	Yarmouth	14:05	8	2.96	1.01	2.66	1st
Find	Yarmouth	14:40	11	1.34	1.01	1.19	1st
Firth of Clyde	Goodwood	14:50	11	1.59	1.09	1.44	2nd
Epic Pass	Goodwood	15:25	8	2.22	1.93	1.96	2nd
Rhoscolyn	Goodwood	16:00	6	5.23	3.8	3.85	3rd
Just Fine	Goodwood	16:35	7	2.36	1.88	2.06	Last
Molly Shaw	Yarmouth	17:00	7	3.82	2.2	3.05	4th
Cool Spirit	Beverley	17:20	7	3.57	2.64	2.92	7th

Todays’ top tipped horses are, as with previous posts in this study, exported from the In-Running Trading tool website in the form of an easy to view spreadsheet. Included in this information is each runners previous BSP and in-play low odds as well as its average tick drop for all races it has run in.

top-tipped-30aug2021 Download

I have also included for your convenience my own 15 tick drop calculator simply enter your back odds and stake in the appropriate boxes and the odds for a 15 tickdrop and the required stake to obtain a level profit if the horse wins or loses will automatically be shown. The commission rate is set at 2% by default and this can also be changed by entering your own rate.

betfair-tick-counter Download

If you want to learn more on trading in play and want free access to all the stats provided by In Running Trading Tool you can get a free 7 day trial of the In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below.

In-Running Trading Tool

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further Day 3

With a 100% strike rate can this system make it 3 days in a row. Sundays are notoriously frustrating in the tipsters department – perhaps it is the drowning of their sorrows after yet another week of failed NAPs and felled favourites or just ashamed to show their faces but there never seems to be the same amount of tips submitted on Sundays. That being said when they band together in splendid isolation it seems that sometimes they know something. Yesterdays crop of 10 most tipped horses managed a win strike percentage of 60% but more importantly they ALL traded in play 15 ticks below their B.S.P. Admittedly the returns on these trades are minimal and just 1 failed trade would wipe out the days profit, but if we were to lay the trade at the same odds but with just a covering stake if the horse went on to win – which 7 did on Friday and 6 yesterday – the maths changes significantly. For Instance
The first horse in the list yesterday was Barn Owl which went of at a BSP of 3.05 and won
If we had laid to an equal profit at 15 ticks the lay stake would have been £11.30 at odd of 2.72 if we had backed it at £10.00 we would have come away with a £1.07 profit if the horse won or lost.
Alternatively if we had Underlaid with a lay stake of £10.20 if the horse won (which it did) the profit rises to £2.96 but breaks even if the horse loses, winning or losing nothing. Something to think about if this study pans out to be a viable system.
Anyway yesterdays full results are as follows

Horse	Meeting	Time	Tips	BSP	i-p low	15 tick odds	Result
Barn Owl	Beverley	14:05	8	3.05	1.01	2.72	1st
Manaccan	Newmarket	14:10	8	2.39	1.01	2.08	1st
Gladiatorial	Cartmel	14:50	9	1.65	1.01	1.5	1st
Nagano	Goodwood	15:00	10	1.75	1.09	1.6	2nd
Aquaman	Newmarket	15:20	9	2.63	2.3	2.32	3rd
Live Your Dream	Newmarket	15:55	9	1.99	1.82	1.84	4th
Fireworks	Beverley	17:00	12	1.16	1.01	1.01	1st
Bellstreet Bridie	Redcar	17:40	10	2.42	1.6	2.12	2nd
Alqamar	Cartmel	17:50	10	2.68	1.01	2.38	1st
Solid Stone	Windsor	18:30	9	3.66	1.01	2.96	1st

Totays top tipped horses are provided below as a spreadsheet exported from In Running Trading Tool and lists the runners, previous form, previous BSP and in-play lows, running style, and a whole host of other information.
Simply click download to have this information at your fingertips

top-tipped-29aug2021 Download

Also provided to help you determine the 15 tick drop needed I provide my own Tick drop calculator
To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.

betfair-tick-counter Download

To get the previous 2 blogs on this study click the link below

Yesterdays Post

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To get a free 7 day trial of the information that is provided by In Running Trading Tool to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

The 15 tick drop – taking it a Step Further

Due to my workload this past week I have been unable to carry on my study of the 15 tick “system” but yesterday when I was going back through my bets of the “most Tipped horses” it struck me that even though most of the bets were just over evens or odds on there were too many losers! What if I employed the 15 tick system to all of the highly tipped horses. So without further ado I listed the 10 most tipped horses of the day and exported thier form from the “InRunning Trading Tool” website into the spreadsheet I have provided below

top-tipped-27aug2021 Download

Of these 10 horses 4 of them did not win (Alhezabr later being dropped to 2nd place in a stewards enquiry) but ALL of them traded at at least 15 ticks below their B.S.P making a 100% strike rate.

Horse	Meeting	Time	Tips	BSP	i-p low	15 tick odds	result
Silk Romance	Newmarket	13:10	11	1.75	1.01	1.6	1st
Razzle Dazzle	Newmarket	14:20	9	1.95	1.01	1.8	1st
Percy’s Pride	Ffos Las	15:05	10	1.42	1.01	1.27	1st
Alhezabr	Ffos Las	15:40	10	2.04	1.08	1.87	2nd
Asjad	Ffos Las	16:10	13	1.79	1.12	1.64	2nd
Kentucky Rose	Hamilton	16:35	9	3.92	1.1	3.14	2nd
Thunder Legend	Hamilton	17:10	11	1.67	1.01	1.52	1st
Sweet Believer	Hamilton	18:10	12	1.83	1.01	1.68	1st
Country Pyle	Goodwood	18:23	14	2.68	1.13	2.32	3rd
Mahrajaan	Hamilton	18:40	10	2.44	1.01	2.14	1st

As you can see from the table above the 2 most tipped horses Country Pyle (14 tips) and Asjad (13 tips) managed just 3rd and 2nd respectively, but easily managed to impress the traders enough in running to bring the price down to very low odds indeed!
I have produced a spreadsheet to help me determine the odds at which a 15 tick drop lay bet should be placed in relation to the B.S.P. or the actual odds that was available anytime before the off. This is also available for download below

betfair-tick-counter Download

To use this simply enter your stake in the “Stake” box (K1) and the odds you backed the horse at in the “Back Odds” box (F2) I have set the commission rate at 2% as I am on the basic package at Betfair and this is my rate to change this just enter your rate in the commission box (O1)
The lay price will automatically adjust to the price needed and give you the lay stake needed to achieve a level profit if the market hits this price
After the race is run you can then input the actual in-play low price into Cell F3 this will then give you the actual tick drop count in Cell F4 and Cell F5 will turn green if the market dropped 15 ticks or red if it failed to get down to the required odds.
I have also provided todays 10 most tipped horses exported from Inrunning Trading Tool spreadsheet for your perusal you can download this by clicking down load below

top-tipped-28aug2021 Download

To get a free 7 day trial of this website to do your own study on this and many other systems such as Back to Lay, Dobbing, Lay to back amongst others Click the link below

In-Running Trading Tool