Laying for Profit

Greyhounds Backing The Favourite Day 3 (4th March 2024)

Going into day 3 I have an overall profit of £9.99 over the first two days of the trial. If you have missed these posts then they can be seen by cliccking the link below
Day 1
Day 2

there are also links at the bottom of the post.

Day 3 saw a total of 156 bets matched at betfair with an average stake value of 57p of which 52 dogs that were favourite 20 seconds from post time on betfair exchange went on to win their race. However this 33.3% of winning bets were not sufficient enough to produce a profit on the day. The figure was a loss of £3.24 – just 2 more winners would have seen a profit on the day.

The best performing track for favourites today was Suffolk Downs with a profit of £4.51 producing 7 winning favourites, 3 of these favourites came from trap 5 – another statistic which could help us in the future if you decide to pit wits in the trap challenge. but this is a subject for subsequent postings on this subject.

So after 3 days of the trial the 3 best performing tracks are
Doncaster (£5.87)
Romford (£5.24)
Clonmel (£4.10)
The 3 worst performing tracks are
Towcester (-£3.46)
Yarmouth (-£4.43)
Sunderland (-£4.52)
The full list is shown below

My total profit over the 3 days has now dwindled to £6.75 from £13.41 on day 1 (I wonder what the P/L would have been on the 1st of march if I had got my ducks in a row sooner. Having said that, making sure the software puts the correct bets in at the correct time is paramount especially if you are going to just leave it running throughout the day!

I am starting to build up some sort of data base now so I will begin to list best performing trap, distance and race class as we go along.

Best performing Trap (No of times trap Won over 3 days – not P/L)
Trap 6 (won 82 times out of 467 races over 3 days)
Best performing distance (No of Times favourite won over distance )
480m (Favourite won 30 times out of 70 races run over 480m over 3 days)
Best Performing Race Class
A7 – Favourite won 17 times out of 30 A7 races run over 3 days producing a profit of £10.52!
There were 7 A7 races run over a distance of 480m of which the favourite won 4 times producing a profit of £2.65 in the first 3 days of the trial.

As you can see the further I get into the trial I can build a picture of which race class and distance would be beneficial to focus on.

Next post Day 4

ITV7 Monday

I just picked my seven winners for @itv7. Don’t miss your free chance to win the jackpot #ITV7 https://itv7.itv.com/play

Through the card at Kempton tonight 👍👍👍

Update 100% win rate

Yesterdays Blog post “Using the In-Running Trading Tool with the Racing Press Top Tipped Horses to determine “Back to Lay” selections” gave, in some detail the workings behind narrowing down the back to lay dilemma.
Fridays selections produced a 100% success rate. So how did yesterdays selections fair
Just to remind you these were
14:00 Ascot; Alotaibi
14:20 Haydock; Valley Forge
18:30 Wolverhampton; Loves Me Likearock

Alotaibi was forecast at an S.P. of 1.33 and you would be excused from thinking that with 10 tips from the National Racing Press “Experts” that this is surely one of those banker moments – Alas it was not to be as Wanees came home in front! However Alotaibi did have a B.S.P. of 1.85 which was 13 ticks more than the industry S.P. and reached an in-play Low of 1.4! This was in fact a 45 tick drop – more than enough to meet our requirements of 1.7 for 15 ticks and a small profit
Valley Forge with 11 tips and a NAP pushing it along and an attractive forecast S.P. of 3.00 (2/1) many a punter would think that it is “money back time” This was not to be unfortunately as Valley Forge managed just 3rd out of a field of 6. But as it turned out all was not lost as the B.S.P. was 2.51 and his in-play low dipped to 2.00 giving a tick drop of 25. This gave an in running profit of 12.8%
With 2 out of 2 losers as far as the straight punters were concerned, I on the other hand have an overall profit of 10% on my stakes.
The evening meeting at Wolverhampton and my last selection in this system was most tipped horse with 12 tips, Loves Me Likearock. Winning by just half a length very nearly made it 3 disasters for the favourite backers. Going off at 2.07 at the Betfair exchange traded to the lowest possible at 1.01 and another win for the system and finishing up 10% up on my stakes

There are just 2 selections today (5th Sept)
14:20 Perth; Minella Trump (10 tips)
14:30 Fontwell; Bigbadmattie (7 tips)

The screenshot above shows the form and other stats for the two horses
To get a free 7 day trial of In-Running Trading Tool please click the link below

In Running Trading Tool

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Sportinglife July NAPs Record

Next under the microscope in regards to their best bets of the day (NAP) is Sporting Life. Currently running 4th in the Racing Post NAPs Table with a profit score of £14.32 to a £1.00 level stake he/she/they have a long way to go to catch the mighty Templegate from the Sun newspaper but we will see in this post as to whether or not The Sporting Life has made any inroads to that goal. From my previous post regarding Templegates July record we can see that he had a level stakes loss of £11.10, Sporting Life did slightly better with a total loss of just £3.89 gaining on the top spot by £7.21. If we used the 10% staking method on Sporting Lifes NAPs a month of fun would have cost us just £1.97.
Laying these NAPs would have seen a profit but only £1.36 to £2.00 stakes but profit is profit but this could have gone most terribly wrong if a couple more selections had won, especially if Maries Diamond had won on the 3rd with a BSP of 35.02 or Lostwithal on the 9th at a BSP of 20!
As in the previous post I have provided the spreadsheet to download for all of Sporting Lifes NAP picks for July.
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sportinglife-naps-record-july-2021 Download

Templegates July NAPs Record

In a previous post I quoted that Templegates £1.00 Level stake profit/loss for July was -£5.62 with one Nap left to run. This figure was in fact incorrect, his actual P/L to £1.00 level stakes for July was -£11.10. The figure I quoted was for a 10% staking plan (Staking 10% of a starting bank of £10.00 and adding any profit and loss to the bank and recalculating the stake for the next day). This figure was when all NAPs were run came out as a £5.87 Loss.
If you had Layed all of his NAPs at the exchange at BSP (Betfair Starting Price) to the minimum £2.00 stake required by Betfair then your actual profit would have been £19.12 when all commissions had been paid (In my case it is 2% but the normal commission rate is 5% which would have resulted in a profit of £17.68)
Again I must correct myself as to an error in the previous post stating that the profit when laying his NAPs was £27.16 with just one to go. This is because I did all of my calculations starting with a bank of £10.00 and forgot to subtract this at the end of the month. apologies for giving you an adrenalin rush in the sheer magnitude of this profit figure 😆
I have posted the excel spreadsheet below for download if anyone is interested in this
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The next Tipster under the Microscope will be Sporting Life who also has a overall profit in the NAPs table but how well did they do in July alone and would it be worth looking at Laying these NAPs as Well

templegates-nap-record-july-2021 Download

Laying Horses for a profit?

I am sure that the majority of people reading this post will know what laying a horse – or any sporting event is, but there are still people who, through no fault of their own, have yet to discover the minefields of the exchanges. Without going into too much blurb, a betting exchange is where you can be a bookie or a punter. Being a bookie involves you betting that a horse, greyhound, footballer, politician or just about anything else will not win. This is called “laying” the horse, greyhound, footballer, politician or just about anything else. So far So Good. This must be easy to win with, after all who has ever heard of a poor bookmaker! While I was compiling the daily NAPs stats for another post it suddenly struck me as to the amount of losing streaks these tipsters have and how we as punters, constantly looking for ways of beating the bookie, but why shouldn’t we be the bookie. I have, up to the time of writing this blog, only analyzed the overall leading tipster in the NAPs table, this being Templegate from the Sun newspaper and at £1.00 level stakes for the month of July, and with today’s NAP yet to run he is at a loss of £5.42. If we had laid his selections at BSP (Betfair Starting Price) we would be in profit to a tune of £27.16!! We do have to take into consideration, however, that the minimum bet on Betfair is £2.00 and in my case, a 2% commission is taken from the winnings. Having only 7 winners in July so far and 1 NAP left to run we are guaranteed a profit unless Hurricane Ivor goes off at 15.0 and wins!!! His biggest-priced winner was Guru at Ascot on the 24th at 5.5 and cost us £9.10. His biggest priced selection was Chookie Dunedin on the 5th July which started at a BSP of 11.37 and would have been a £20.74 loss should it have won.
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The initial Bet-Or-Not verdict on this one is I will be reserving a £20.00 bank on my Betfair Account to live test this in september when I have looked into which Tipster is most likely to not win 😁