Author Archives: shakey775

Ladbrokes Premier League Treble . Leicester, Aston Villa and Brighton all to Win 9/1 (was 8/1)

With the Premier League back in action this weekend the bookies are eager to make more profit off the unsuspecting punter and today’s focus is on the ever greedy Ladbrokes and their Premier League Treble.
Leicester are at home to Wolves this afternoon and with fans being allowed back into stadiums the home side advantage must be taken into consideration and with each new season brings the uncertainty of lack of stats. Looking at last season’s last 5 games for these teams Leicester won 3 out of the 5 with 2 being away to Man Utd and Chelsea with the other win at home against the mighty Man City. These two sides last met on 8 Nov where the winning goal was a 15th minute penalty by Vardy. Wolverhampton are full of uncertainty with a new manager in the saddle and a tentative vote on the side of Leicester goes to this Match.
The next game in the treble is the newly promoted Watford hosting Aston Villa and who would have thought Brentford would have given Arsenal a spanking last night, could the same happen this afternoon with these two teams? I have Traore in my VirginBet fives team and really hope he scores a hat-trick. Watford scored in every home game last season bar one which was against Cardiff in December. Aston Villa, last season, came out on a winning mission being victorious in all four of their opening games scoring a total of 12 goals. Home side advantage may play a part in this game but on previous goal scoring ability and the loss of Grealish to Man City not withstanding another tentative vote goes to Aston Villa.
Brighton travel to Burnley today and this it would seem is likely to be the bogey match. Winning just 5 away games last season their start to the 20/21 season did not inspire confidence. This fixture in February ended 1-1 and ended goalless in their previous meeting to that. perhaps 2-2 might be a progressive step as home advantage with a full ground today may make the difference. Both of these sides were in danger of sinking into the Championship last season and my vote goes to a score draw
As with all these trebles better odds may be found elsewhere and the same odds can be got on smarkets and Betfair sportbook is offering 9.5 (17/2) unboosted.
This treble is a tricky one as there is no real recent form to reference and with all things being equal a max stake bet is out of the question but a sneaky quid may well be acceptable
Good luck with whatever you decide to do and please gamble responsibly

Backing the Most Tipped horses of the day – A Study!!

Is the old adage “safety in numbers” true to making bets? In this blog I will disclose my findings on different ways that I have approached betting on the most tipped horses of the day. Limited to just 4 bets a day these horses are chosen for me by horseracing.net as their Paddy Power advertising banner shows these horses and is a useful “Cut-out” tool as there could be multiple selections with the most tips and then you need to ask is where do I stop! For anyone reading this and wish to find these selections they can be found below all the “New Account” Ads on any main horseracing.net page

You can bet directly from the site I suppose

I have approached this from several betting angles and with the use of spreadsheets have posted my findings so far this Month (AUG 21)
The first and easiest bets are the £1.00 level stakes and I confess to adopting this staking plan as I work nights and to stay awake for the races is not an option. I can get my bets on with SkyBet after 9am to take advantage of any B.O.G. available. It also can get you a couple of better priced horses if the odds come screaming in. A couple of rule 4 occurrence’s have reduced the payout significantly for that race but when looking at the starting prices of some selections and the early price I got in the morning more than makes up for these reductions.
Any way onto my findings after 13 days
The following staking plans are analysed below

10% of a Starting bank of £10.00 (Current balance is £52.29)
£1.00 Level Stakes (current Balance £20.93)
Double Stake after a Win (current balance -£57.84)
£2.00 stake on any selection at odds over 2.0 (current balance £35.32)
Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price ( current balance – £46.70)

1. 10% stakes
The idea behind this plan is to bolster any winning streaks by adding to the stakes used after each win. This is currently out-performing the other methods hands down as the “strike-rate” is quite high but has the drawback of not being a “fire and forget” system as you need to be aware of each selections result as it happens. To use this system is simple enough – you simply stake 10% of your bank for instance the first bet from a £10.00 bank would be £1.00 If the bet wins any profit is added to the bank and the next bet would be 10% of the new balance e.g. an even money win would stand the bank at £11.00 the next bet would then be £1.10.
After a dismal start on the 1 Aug where all 4 lost my theoretical bank stood at £6.56 but things started to improve with its highest point being £88.55 on the 12 August! it is currently at £52.29 after a losing streak of 5

2. £1.00 Level Stakes
As it says on the Tin this is simply staking £1.00 on each selection regardless of odds or whether the previous selection won or lost. Again a disatrous start of 4 losers gave me a loss of £4.00 but this too started to improve with a current profit of £20.93 with the highest profit point of £25.93 on the 12 August. As you can see a losing streak of 5 has only reduced the profit by £5.00 whereas in the 10% system the profit reduction is £36.21.

3. Double Stake after a win
This one can get scary as a winning streak of 10 (which happened between 5th Aug and the 7th Aug) puts the next stake of £1024.00 onto the 11th runner, In this case a Non Runner and the 12th selection lost plunging a very healthy bank of £959.78 into a -£64.22 and just a quid going onto the next selection. Not a system for the faint hearted but some sensible rules about pulling out after a win steak of 4 and starting with a quid on the 5th selection would have seen a healthier balance and I will figure out the excel formula for this when I have the time. This system can again only be implemented if you are able to see all the selections results as they happen.

4. £2.00 level stakes on selections over 2.0 odds
I am looking at this system purely from the aspect of staking enough money on SkyBet to earn my £5.00 free bet for my Cheltenham campaign in March next year. Just betting £1.00 on each selection left me £8.00 short in the first week. With hindsight however £2.00 level stakes would see a bank of £41.86 (double the £1.00 level stake system) and an easy £5.00 free bet addition to my growing Cheltenham pot.

4. Laying the selections to lose at £2.00 stakes at Betfair Starting Price
You have to be cynical in all studies and this system lays all selections to lose and while the first day was particularly successful as they all lost the decline has been steadily progressive. A high strike rate of 63% and with just 45% of runners starting at odds on laying these horses is just not an option.

Below you will find the spreadsheet available to download
It lists all the runners and their S.P.s and BSPs



most-tipped-horsesDownload


Sportinglife July NAPs Record

Next under the microscope in regards to their best bets of the day (NAP) is Sporting Life. Currently running 4th in the Racing Post NAPs Table with a profit score of £14.32 to a £1.00 level stake he/she/they have a long way to go to catch the mighty Templegate from the Sun newspaper but we will see in this post as to whether or not The Sporting Life has made any inroads to that goal. From my previous post regarding Templegates July record we can see that he had a level stakes loss of £11.10, Sporting Life did slightly better with a total loss of just £3.89 gaining on the top spot by £7.21. If we used the 10% staking method on Sporting Lifes NAPs a month of fun would have cost us just £1.97.
Laying these NAPs would have seen a profit but only £1.36 to £2.00 stakes but profit is profit but this could have gone most terribly wrong if a couple more selections had won, especially if Maries Diamond had won on the 3rd with a BSP of 35.02 or Lostwithal on the 9th at a BSP of 20!
As in the previous post I have provided the spreadsheet to download for all of Sporting Lifes NAP picks for July.
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sportinglife-naps-record-july-2021Download

Templegates July NAPs Record

Photo by Absolute Charm on Pexels.com

In a previous post I quoted that Templegates £1.00 Level stake profit/loss for July was -£5.62 with one Nap left to run. This figure was in fact incorrect, his actual P/L to £1.00 level stakes for July was -£11.10. The figure I quoted was for a 10% staking plan (Staking 10% of a starting bank of £10.00 and adding any profit and loss to the bank and recalculating the stake for the next day). This figure was when all NAPs were run came out as a £5.87 Loss.
If you had Layed all of his NAPs at the exchange at BSP (Betfair Starting Price) to the minimum £2.00 stake required by Betfair then your actual profit would have been £19.12 when all commissions had been paid (In my case it is 2% but the normal commission rate is 5% which would have resulted in a profit of £17.68)
Again I must correct myself as to an error in the previous post stating that the profit when laying his NAPs was £27.16 with just one to go. This is because I did all of my calculations starting with a bank of £10.00 and forgot to subtract this at the end of the month. apologies for giving you an adrenalin rush in the sheer magnitude of this profit figure 😆
I have posted the excel spreadsheet below for download if anyone is interested in this
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The next Tipster under the Microscope will be Sporting Life who also has a overall profit in the NAPs table but how well did they do in July alone and would it be worth looking at Laying these NAPs as Well


templegates-nap-record-july-2021Download

Laying Horses for a profit?

I am sure that the majority of people reading this post will know what laying a horse – or any sporting event is, but there are still people who, through no fault of their own, have yet to discover the minefields of the exchanges. Without going into too much blurb, a betting exchange is where you can be a bookie or a punter. Being a bookie involves you betting that a horse, greyhound, footballer, politician or just about anything else will not win. This is called “laying” the horse, greyhound, footballer, politician or just about anything else. So far So Good. This must be easy to win with, after all who has ever heard of a poor bookmaker! While I was compiling the daily NAPs stats for another post it suddenly struck me as to the amount of losing streaks these tipsters have and how we as punters, constantly looking for ways of beating the bookie, but why shouldn’t we be the bookie. I have, up to the time of writing this blog, only analyzed the overall leading tipster in the NAPs table, this being Templegate from the Sun newspaper and at £1.00 level stakes for the month of July, and with today’s NAP yet to run he is at a loss of £5.42. If we had laid his selections at BSP (Betfair Starting Price) we would be in profit to a tune of £27.16!! We do have to take into consideration, however, that the minimum bet on Betfair is £2.00 and in my case, a 2% commission is taken from the winnings. Having only 7 winners in July so far and 1 NAP left to run we are guaranteed a profit unless Hurricane Ivor goes off at 15.0 and wins!!! His biggest-priced winner was Guru at Ascot on the 24th at 5.5 and cost us £9.10. His biggest priced selection was Chookie Dunedin on the 5th July which started at a BSP of 11.37 and would have been a £20.74 loss should it have won.
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The initial Bet-Or-Not verdict on this one is I will be reserving a £20.00 bank on my Betfair Account to live test this in september when I have looked into which Tipster is most likely to not win 😁

Backing the most tipped horses of the day

On a tangent to NAPs Betting the racing post have a feature they call the selection boxes for each meeting of the day which leading press tipsters are invited to submit their selections for each race. These are not necessarily “NAPs” just run of the mill tips which they think will win. When these tips are all collated certain horses emerge with more tips than most and are more likely to win. That’s the theory as the combined might of the British Racing Press mostly tip a horse then what can possibly go wrong. A major downside of this theory is that the cowardly bookmakers take these selections into consideration and promptly the odds take a most undignified dive and become very short very quickly. There isnt any sort of a remedy for this you just need to take the odds and hope for a couple of degrees warmth if BOG goes in your favour.
These selections can be found quite easily without the need to rush out and buy the Racing Post as several racing sites post these horses usually in the middle of a bookmakers advertisement so that they get commission on the clicks.
Today I have used Mellissa Jones’ page on the Mirror website and the following horses have the most tips today
Beholden – Newton Abbott 13:00 9 tips
Courtland – Newton Abbott 13:30 11 Tips
Wbee – Stratford 14:30 9 tips
Forchena – Newton Abbott 16:25 9 tips
Time will only tell now if this could be profitable or or whether it will show that even the combined power of the brains of the racing press is no match for the unpredictability of British Racing
Should we Bet Or Not?
come back later to find out.

NAPS Betting

What is a NAP? apart from a short sleep a Racing Nap is a tipsters best bet of the day. Derived from the card game Napoleon in which the best hand is a Napoleon or NAP. Its as simple as that so stop trying to work out the acronym.
The racing Post runs a “NAPS Table” for the racing press who are invited to submit their “best bet” of the day with points being given as the equivalent winnings at S.P. to a level £1.00 stake. For instance if the horse wins at odds of 4/1 then they will be awarded £4.00 and if it loses then a subtraction of £1.00. At the time of writing this Blog the current Leader is Templegate from the Sun newspaper with a positive balance of £46.68 and a losing streak of 4 days.
Everyone has their favourite tipster and you can make up your own mind who to follow if any at all but backing the NAP of a serious tipster means just 1 bet per day. When I say “serious Tipster” I say it with a certain amount of scepticism as I suspect that some journalists in the table are perhaps pinning the racing page up on the wall and chucking a dart at it and submitting the horse closest to the hole it made. I refer in particular to the lower end of the table where some 66/1 outsiders are being tipped! surely these cannot be their best bets of the day.
I am not an advocate of staking plans but in this case I will follow the Sporting Life Nap using the 10% method of staking just to make it interesting.
I started on July 12 (Monday) and as luck would have it the NAP won at 2.25 and working from an initial bank of £10.00 after day 1 my bank stood at £12.25! None have won yet since and the bank now stands at £8.37 with Pretty Green to run at Nottingham today with 84p riding on it at odds of 4.5 (7/2) and BOG if the price lengthens.
I ill try and update this post on a daily basis but work commitments may dictate otherwise.
Pretty Green lost and focus switched to Saturdays NAP which is Mountain Peak Running at Haydock and with my bank running at £7.53, 75p goes on the selection at odds of 3.5 (5/2)
5th Place is all it could manage which brings a losing streak of 5. Sundays NAP is Moneykenny and I am just waiting until 9am to ensure I get BOG

Sporting Life Football Recommended Bets Study 2020

When my Dad took the sporting Life Newspaper when I was a boy all I can remember about it was the pages of Racing and Greyhounds. I dont remember seeing football coverage at all so when the racing post took over and the Sporting Life became a multi sport on-line website the powers that be must have gone down the local bookies and recruited the first punter they saw for their football tipster as the results for 2020 in their recommended football section are dismal!! It is plain as day which end of the office the golfers are propping up. 58.31 point loss on the year makes for a very good time for the bookies. In the months that there was a profit the average was 10.86 points this being bolstered by a November Profit of 34.40 points (Perhaps the footy guys were on holiday and the golfers stepped into the breach) Which ever way you look at this the prospect is gloomy and more could be gained by actually laying these bets at the exchanges.
Anyway as usual I will list their figures below but be warned it is not happy reading.
Jan 6.24 points profit
Feb 5.43 points profit
Mar 5.35 points profit
Apr No Bets
May 7.00 points profit ( Just BundesLiga bets)
Jun 27.79 points Loss
Jul 12.94 points loss
Aug 6.75 point profit
Sep 5.03 point Loss
Oct 49.70 point Loss
Nov 34.40 point profit
Dec 28.02 point Loss

I did think that when I was compiling these figures that the guys had made their recommendations, not taking into consideration the fact that crowd factor makes a difference but it was a steady decline after May.
I did think that these tips might be worth the fun factor but after seeing Junes results I did think BetOrNot!!!

Keep trying lads